Author Topic: Tornadoes Severe weather threat continues over northern Plains and Great Lakes region!  (Read 2505 times)

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Severe weather threat continues over northern Plains and Great Lakes region!

Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread over the northern half of the  U.S. this afternoon into the evening, with all modes of severe weather possible.  Extremely large hail and widespread damaging winds would appear to pose the  greatest threat, but there is an increased threat for tornadoes in areas where  low-level shear is maximized, and as long as any cells can remain relatively  isolated. With that said, wind profiles for later this evening suggest that  storms may organize into one or more Mesoscale Convective Systems, or, possibly  even a derecho overnight, impacting an area from northern Iowa to lower Lake  Michigan. The threat for extremely damaging winds will be greatest with any of  these systems that are able to sustain themselves for any length of time, and  will continue into tomorrow across lower Michigan and surrounding areas. (Of  note, the 18z NAM shows what appears to be a derecho racing across Iowa later  tonight and slamming into southern WI and Lake Michigan by early tomorrow  morning...) Multiple rounds of severe weather will be possible for tomorrow over  eastern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio as well as Michigan,  where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day-2 moderate risk for this  region. After the possible derecho overnight, the area is expected to recover  enough instability-wise for at least one more round of intense weather, again  likely culminating with another strong MCS or derecho. Before that, though, the  strong wind shear that will be in place over this area appears to be favorable  for cells to remain discrete for at least a short time over lower Michigan  tomorrow afternoon, and will pose a more significant threat for tornadoes.  Tomorrow's weather set-up is of particular concern given the highly populated  area which could be impacted. It's likely that at least several chasers will be  streaming this event live both tonight and tomorrow, so as always be sure to  check the Live page for a look at what's happening in real-time.
« Last Edit: 24 June 2010, 09:07:43 AM by Michael Bath »