Author Topic: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008  (Read 26698 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline nmoir

  • Elephant Trunk F2
  • *
  • Posts: 200
  • Gender: Male
  • "busting chases since 1999"
    • Oculi.com.au
NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« on: 30 September 2008, 12:00:19 PM »

 GFS has some CAPE sitting in the central tablelands or the Weather co predict is the Hunter on thursday , but i wonder if the moisture will be wiped out like the last couple of times , at the surface it seemed to be a northerly and has some ok dewpoints but i dont see anything stopping those storm killing north westerlies.
Nick Moir
Photographer
The Sydney Morning Herald
and www.oculi.com.au

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #1 on: 01 October 2008, 09:31:50 AM »
I'm thinking that it's going to be a lot less spectacular than GFS is suggesting at this stage Nick, but would be happy to have been proven wrong come Friday morning. Clearly GFS has almost no handle on the boundary layer moisture in recent times eg cf. 18-20C dewpoints Friday versus LAPS progged 10C dewpoints which looks more realistic given the synoptic situation. Based on form, I know where my money is. High-based storms at best for Friday; maybe some ok lightning.


Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline Macca

  • Elephant Trunk F2
  • *
  • Posts: 171
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #2 on: 01 October 2008, 01:29:06 PM »
Not that i've been able to follow the model progression very much over the last few days but I think it seems to be slowing down the front.  Current forecast for Sydney for Friday is for a late shower/storm but I'm more interested in Saturday late morning/early afternoon as the southerly comes up the coast and the upper levels are starting to get more interesting.  Timing is a massive factor here but if it can hold off until then, I'd think Sydney could get a nice early afternoon surprise on Saturday.  Wouldn't be the first time I've seen something like this.

Macca

Offline Shaun Galman

  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 441
  • Gender: Male
    • ridgelightning.com
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #3 on: 03 October 2008, 01:57:53 PM »
Chasing Region: Lightning Ridge. N.S.W.
Website: www.ridgelightning.com

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #4 on: 03 October 2008, 11:25:03 PM »
The models are continuing to find it hard to agree with systems with GFS playing silly buggers. Today there is a general thunderstorm outlook but I doubt worth much of a drive. This is noth the scenario one would have hoped for. With double de-merit points in NSW, definitely best to remain home unless a supercell attracts you.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline Shaun Galman

  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 441
  • Gender: Male
    • ridgelightning.com
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #5 on: 04 October 2008, 07:11:05 AM »
Hi guys,

Jimmy
Chasing Region: Lightning Ridge. N.S.W.
Website: www.ridgelightning.com

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #6 on: 04 October 2008, 07:28:31 AM »
Shauno,

My complaints are merely realting to the moisture overestimation. And it is a significant difference. Moisture according to the GFS was anticipated to be 16 to 18C whereas realistically it was maximum13 to 14C. The higher dew points explains the high CAPE and very significant Surface Lifted Index reading.

We'll see how GFS handles further into the season.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline James

  • Elephant Trunk F2
  • *
  • Posts: 149
  • Gender: Male
    • Sydney Storm Chasers
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #7 on: 04 October 2008, 08:27:33 AM »
You've got to love the Dorrigo Plateau for storms. When no forecast or model thinks it's a chance, it always throws up something. Storms have formed near Point Lookout and Ebor.

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #8 on: 04 October 2008, 09:22:13 AM »
And in the past hour, storms have erupted out west with plentiful lightning. Hopefully the storms will survive for a lightning show nearer Sydney.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline Richary

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 680
  • Gender: Male
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #9 on: 04 October 2008, 09:33:44 AM »
Starting to fire up. Fingers crossed.

Nice looking cell on the radar to the NE of Armidale as well.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND
For people in parts of the CENTRAL TABLELANDS, SOUTHERN TABLELANDS, CENTRAL WEST SLOPES, CENTRAL WEST PLAINS, SOUTH WEST SLOPES, RIVERINA, UPPER WESTERN and LOWER WESTERN Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:02 pm Friday, 3 October 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Parkes, Griffith, Tibooburra, Cobar, White Cliffs and Ivanhoe.

A wind gust of 91 kph has been recorded at Moomba in South Australia, from a thunderstorm in a similar environment to those in NSW.


Offline David Brodrick

  • Elephant Trunk F2
  • *
  • Posts: 130
    • Oz Forecast
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #10 on: 04 October 2008, 09:43:10 AM »
Yep GFS is awful at modelling daytime boundary layer conditions.

It's intriguing given that the model initial conditions should be well constrained by surface and satellite observations. And more intriguing given that it seems to do a marvellous job at modelling the upper atmosphere and that nighttime conditions are predicted quite well.

Narrabri is presently about 32 degrees with DP of 11 degrees. Whereas GFS predicted a max temperature of 26 degrees for 2m AGL and DP of 18 degrees.

It would be interesting to know more about what is going on from one of the GFS developers.

Offline dann weatherhead

  • Multi-vortex F1
  • *
  • Posts: 32
  • Gender: Female
    • Sydney Storm Chasers
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #11 on: 04 October 2008, 10:28:54 AM »
Timing is a massive factor here but if it can hold off until then, I'd think Sydney could get a nice early afternoon surprise on Saturday.  Wouldn't be the first time I've seen something like this.

From the BoM 4:15pm today:
Forecast for Saturday
A few showers and the chance of thunderstorms. Moderate west to northwest winds ahead of moderate to fresh south to southeast change by the afternoon.

Picked it 3 days ago. Did you bring you camera down?

Dann

Offline Ben

  • Multi-vortex F1
  • *
  • Posts: 34
  • Gender: Male
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #12 on: 04 October 2008, 06:32:19 PM »
Nice lightshow on the N Shore tonight!!! Lots of CG's!!! heres a few. all can be viewed at http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/

 






Offline Michael Bath

  • storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 1,602
  • Gender: Male
    • Australian Severe Weather
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #13 on: 05 October 2008, 03:39:04 AM »
Thanks Ben - some lovely lightning there !! :)

Has anyone heard any reports of severe weather? the BoM had warnings out for damaging winds for most of the arvo and evening and that's not surprising given the speed the storms were moving.

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

shanesmp

  • Guest
RE: NSW & S QLD Storms: 2-6 October 2008
« Reply #14 on: 05 October 2008, 05:34:56 AM »
Ben and I went up to his local oval which has great views, took me 20mins to get there which is a very good run through Pennant Hills RD. Was a very enjoyable send off just before my overseas trip (Tomorrow 11.20am). Here are my pics:

Click here for pictures

:)

P.S. I have heard no reports of damage in the Sydney area, if anywhere would have got damage it would have been the oval we were on, and no branches/trees down... not really any strong winds at all. Just some nice lightning.