MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY!!!
One of the strongest storm systems of 2010 is exploding across the upper midwest at this time. A very intense mid/upper-level jet is screaming into the midwest as a related "
atmospheric bomb" detonates over northern Minnesota. Very strong, southerly surface winds are dragging seasonably rich moisture from the Gulf Coast all the way into lower Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes region, and when combined with the INSANE wind energy, a massive line of potentially destructive storms is resulting. Widespread damaging straight-line winds will be the main concern today as wind profiles are mostly linear over a large portion of the upper midwest to lower Mississippi valley. However, speed shear (the product of wind speeds that change with height -- this as opposed to
directional shear) can often contribute to the development of tornadoes in these situations. Given the extreme wind energy, any tornadoes that do form will have the potential to be strong, and any storms that are able to become discrete or quasi-discrete with sustained mesocyclones would almost certainly have the potential to produce violent tornadoes. Discrete convection will be more likely in areas where surface winds are able to become more southeasterly (and thus providing more favorable directional shear against the westerly/southwesterly mid-level jet). These areas will see the greatest threat for tornadoes. The zone of southeasterly surface winds will be spread out to the east of the center of the surface low, meaning lower Michigan and generally into the Lake Erie region and points south in Ohio. However, instability is generally weaker in these areas, so it is more likely (but not guaranteed) that the wind shear will overwhelm the limited instability and force a more linear storm mode regardless of the directional shear. Storm mode aside, this is still an extremely volatile system, and as such, the
Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare October HIGH RISK for areas of Lower Michigan into northwestern Kentucky. Subsequent outlooks will likely shift the HIGH RISK area to the east as the system advances during the day. Obviously, residents from the eastern Great Lakes, including southern Ontario, all the way to the Gulf Coast should be very mindful of weather watches and warnings today, monitor local broadcasts, and heed any warnings that are issued.
Dennis Sherrod and Michael Stanga are live-streaming the event as well, so be sure to check out their streams on the
LIVE page for a real-time look at what's going on in their areas, as data permits.
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/36-tornadoes/1298-major-severe-weather-outbreak-underway
