Severe weather possible today on the central and northern Plains
A week ago it appeared as though today might be the year's first true, large-scale severe weather outbreak on the Great Plains. The Gulf would finally have "opened up," and moisture -- fuel for storms -- would be abundant. Supercells would erupt along an extensive dryline from central Texas to Nebraska. A monster 500 mb trough would be exiting the Rockies in unison with a 50+ knt low-level jet raging into the evening. All of this looked like a dangerous situation for the residents of the central and southern Plains. Storm chasers would have little doubt that the 2010 severe weather season had finally arrived.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, things have not worked out quite the way the GFS was suggesting 7-8 days ago. As the event has drawn closer and all of the Weather Forecasting Models have been forced to deal with reality, what's left is a powerful but not monstrous 500 mb trough and a very strong (impressive, even) low-level jet, but very marginal, shallow moisture. The Gulf has not
opened up, and as a result, storm development will be limited in scope and relative intensity. Today's severe weather threat will stretch from the Dakotas and possibly even Minnesota into Kansas. Cold temperatures aloft suggest that large hail will be the main threat for the western Dakotas into northern Kansas and northeast Colorado, but given the strong shear that will be present, tornadoes cannot be ruled out; there may even be some surprises today. It's likely that several chasers will be active in the risk area later today, so as always, be sure to check out the
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