Author Topic: Tornadoes The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5  (Read 2522 times)

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Tornadoes The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5
« on: 05 April 2010, 08:00:15 AM »
The Apocalypse.  Monday, April 5

A classic dryline-warm front setup appears to be unfolding for Monday across eastern Kansas, with 65F dewpoints surging up to a warm front forecast to stretch across I-70 by afternoon.  A bulging dryline into southeasterly low-level flow should be sufficient to break the cap from near Hays south to into northwest Okalhoma, with a 50 knot low-level jet developing by evening.  0-1 km EHIs of 4-5 are forecast to reside east of the dryline and along the warm front, with around 3000 J/kg CAPE.  This setup is very similar to the May 4, 2007 event, with the only potential limiting factor being initation, but I really don't think that will be an issue on Monday with 65F dewpoints and the cold air aloft of early spring.  The NAM foreacast 850 mb flow and 0-1 km EHI for 00z April 6 are shown at right.  Tomorrow (Sunday) could also be interesting across southeast Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma into Missouri, but if it doesn't materialize we'll position for Monday, which looks to be the big day.  People across western/central Kansas should definitely be attention to the forecast, and have their weather radios ready to go, because I would not be surprised if there were some stronger tornadoes if these model runs verify.  We'll be streaming non-stop throughout the storm chases this week, so be sure to check out the upgrades to the iMap tracker at!
« Last Edit: 06 April 2010, 01:03:24 AM by Jimmy Deguara »


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Re: Tornadoes The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5
« Reply #1 on: 06 April 2010, 11:00:18 PM »
Tornadoes possible today!

This afternoon into the evening could be quite eventful for areas of the central U.S. into the southern Plains. Storm chasers who are venturing out today will likely need to make one major decision, that being whether to play the warm front or dryline. The warm front is expected to extend into southern Iowa and Wisconsin by late this afternoon, with the dryline situated to the west and draped across central Kansas into western Oklahoma. Forecast models have been suggesting that storms are much more likely across northern Missouri and southern Iowa late this afternoon, and in fact have been ongoing throughout the morning up until present. The environment along and south of the warm front is expected to be essentially uncapped and moisture-rich, but will be situated over an area that most Plains chasers find undesirable for a variety of reasons (terrain, roads, distance from radar sites, distance from home, etc.). Also, the 12z GFS is forecasting southwesterly 850mb winds for the warm front area, which could deter chasers who are looking for more-favorable directional shear -- that can be found along the dryline. The gamble with the dryline today is that there is expected to be a considerable cap in place, which could inhibit storm development altogether and result in a busted chase for anyone who targets that area. However, if a storm or two is able to fire, chasers who chose the dryline will likely be rewarded with a more chaseable storm that would have the potential for significant tornadoes.

Numerous live streamers will be out this afternoon across both targets, including several new teams. Be sure to follow along on the
« Last Edit: 07 April 2010, 09:15:03 AM by Michael Bath »