Tornadoes possible today!
This afternoon into the evening could be quite eventful for areas of the central U.S. into the southern Plains. Storm chasers who are venturing out today will likely need to make one major decision, that being whether to play the warm front or dryline. The warm front is expected to extend into southern Iowa and Wisconsin by late this afternoon, with the dryline situated to the west and draped across central Kansas into western Oklahoma. Forecast models have been suggesting that storms are much more likely across northern Missouri and southern Iowa late this afternoon, and in fact have been ongoing throughout the morning up until present. The environment along and south of the warm front is expected to be essentially uncapped and moisture-rich, but will be situated over an area that most Plains chasers find undesirable for a variety of reasons (terrain, roads, distance from radar sites, distance from home, etc.). Also, the 12z GFS is forecasting southwesterly 850mb winds for the warm front area, which could deter chasers who are looking for more-favorable directional shear -- that can be found along the dryline. The gamble with the dryline today is that there is expected to be a considerable cap in place, which could inhibit storm development altogether and result in a busted chase for anyone who targets that area. However, if a storm or two is able to fire, chasers who chose the dryline will likely be rewarded with a more chaseable storm that would have the potential for significant tornadoes.
Numerous live streamers will be out this afternoon across both targets, including several new teams. Be sure to follow along on the
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