Author Topic: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008  (Read 14472 times)

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Offline Michael Bath

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QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« on: 30 May 2008, 10:01:23 AM »
Some moderate falls already overnight as this system develops. A surface low is likely to form off the QLD coast and hang around a few days. Models vary in the position and heading of the low but all indicate some heavy falls are likely in some areas from the Central QLD coast to the NSW Mid North Coast. High pressure is remaining at high latitudes which will assist the onshore flow into next week.

NORTHERN RIVERS to 9am 29 May:
Alstonville  32 Ballina  23 Ballina Ap AWS  30 Byron Bay  22


I've had 20mm here since 9am today. Some thunder about as well.

Michael
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #1 on: 31 May 2008, 03:35:43 AM »
Some nice accumulations of rainfall in the past 24 hours particularly on the Sunshine Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett. Several locations have topped 100mm.





34mm to 9am at my place with hardly any falling overnight.

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Karina Roberts (slavegirl)

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #2 on: 31 May 2008, 11:04:30 AM »
Looks like its going to be an interesting couple of days or more for goldcoast,brisbane and NE NSW residents!

"Residents of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales should prepare themselves for a wild and woolly weekend as severe weather threatens the region, according to weatherzone.com.au.

Torrential rain began falling from the Sunshine Coast up to the Capricornia district overnight, with a number of falls in excess of 100mm. Lady Elliott Island picked up 127mm in the 24 hours to 9am today. This was its heaviest rainfall in five years and highest May rainfall in 10 years.

Kingfisher Bay received 113mm in the same time period, also its heaviest rainfall in five years.

"A low pressure system has developed off the central Queensland coast. Very moist easterly winds between this low and a high well to the south have resulted in persistent rain across the Capriconia and Wide Bay districts over the last 24 hours," weatherzone.com.au meteorologist Matt Pearce said.

"We are expecting the low to track slowly southwards across the weekend, so the heavy rain is likely to extend across the Southeast Coast district and eventually into northeast New South Wales."

In addition to the torrential rain, gusty winds have also been buffeting the coastline. Double Island Point recorded a 98km/hr easterly gust at 7:20am today.

A Severe Weather Warning is in force for the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast districts, including Brisbane, warning of the potential for damaging winds, heavy rain, flash flooding and damaging surf across the weekend.

"As we head into next week, there is some uncertainty about how the weather pattern will unfold. However, there are very early indications that the low may continue tracking down the New South Wales coast, resulting in quite a widespread and substantial rain event," Pearce said.


- Weatherzone"
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #3 on: 01 June 2008, 03:59:42 AM »
The past 24 has seen another round of significant rainfall accumulations - again focused on the Sunshine Coast, Wide Bay and Burnett. Several locations have topped 100mm with Kingfisher Bay Resort on the west coast of Fraser Island topping the list with 150mm.



There are no flood warnings as yet but a severe weather warning continues:

Quote
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for Damaging Winds and Dangerous Surf for the southern Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, and Southeast Coast districts.

Issued at 4:45 am on Saturday 31 May 2008

Synoptic situation: A low pressure system is located over the Coral Sea about 270 km east of  Mackay and is expected to remain near stationary.

Damaging wind gusts to about 90 km/hr will continue about exposed coastal areas between Gladstone and the northern Sunshine Coast. 

Seas will continue to be rough with dangerous surf conditions between Gladstone and Point Danger. Some coastal erosion is likely about exposed beaches.


24mm to 9am at my place this morning.

The latest model output is again quite dramatic and could lead to some flooding in SE QLD and NE NSW in a couple of days time. Attached is the GFS forecast from 12z

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #4 on: 02 June 2008, 08:52:33 AM »
Although nowhere near as spectacular, at least sunny days have given way to an onshore airstream. Stratocumulus has been streaming in from the southeast throughout the day with some steady showers in some suburbs. I note some deeper convection in patches and hopefully this will continue and provide some heavier falls as the week progresses.

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Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #5 on: 03 June 2008, 03:40:15 AM »
The Sunshine Coast has copped another round of 100mm + falls this morning 2nd June 2008. Some centres have now had about 400mm over the past 4 days. A couple of reports of 200mm+ in the past 24 hours have come in from the Maroochydore area and most of that would have fallen in the period since midnight.   edit: Buderim 252mm with at least 200 mm of that since 5am.





Model output still diverges somewhat but still indicates heavy falls over the next couple of days from SE QLD to Sydney. It has certainly been a difficult setup to forecast.

Satpic at 9am is certainly giving an indication why the Sunshine Coast is copping it this morning!

« Last Edit: 03 June 2008, 03:55:00 AM by Michael Bath »
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Karina Roberts (slavegirl)

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #6 on: 03 June 2008, 06:10:48 AM »
Hi guys,
just a couple of quick pics from my area( more to come later) this is one of the swollen creeks that border where i live, if the rain keeps up this one will probably burst its banks which will then isolat the area i live in as there is only one way in and out and the stormwater drains dont actually drain properly lol we have had one localised flood incident in summer(thankfully it drained reasonably quickly that time-was just one heavy downpour from a storm) but with steady rain may take longer to clear this time round

cheers

Karina
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #7 on: 04 June 2008, 02:23:21 AM »
69mm here in the 24 hours to 9am, half of which fell between 2.15 and 3.30am today. Was woken to a very close CG then it poured after that with a few more CGs.

Minor flood warning for the Wilsons River now:

Flood Warning Number: 1

In the Wilsons River valley, an average of 73 millimetres of rain has fallen during the past 24 hours to 6 am this morning [3/6/08].  A maximum of 146 millimetres of rainfall was recorded at Goonengerry over this period

This is expected to cause minor flooding at Lismore this afternoon [3/6/2008]. 

Further rain is forecast for the next 24 hours. 

At this stage it is not possible to predict the flood peak because of uncertainty over how much more rain will fall.

Predicted River Heights/Flows:

Lismore: Exceed minor flood level [4.2 metres] around 3pm this afternoon.

-----

Rainfall maps for the 24 hours to 9am 3rd June 2008






« Last Edit: 05 June 2008, 04:00:17 AM by Michael Bath »
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Shaun Galman

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #8 on: 04 June 2008, 09:28:50 AM »
Hi guys,

Definitely been some fantastic falls around Northern NSW and Southern QLD! We received 30mm in the 24hrs starting at 9am yesterday through to 9am this morning. Some very fine drizzle about since but it still looks grey and looming with heavy-widespread low based cumulus covering which is probably the norm around the Northern area I'd imagine.

This should return a little greenery to the bush and give a nice addition to some of the rivers that have been low since those great summer falls.

Cheers,
Shauno
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #9 on: 04 June 2008, 12:35:27 PM »
Hi,

It has not been as spectacular here though great so see some steady falls of rain throughout the Sydney region. We received 8.6mm yesterday and another 5.2 up until this morning. I'll see what fell tomorrow morning to cover today's intermittent rainfall.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Richary

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #10 on: 04 June 2008, 05:13:45 PM »
So far since it started have had a total of 40mm here at Rydalmere. Varied in the amounts, a lot has been light showers ut just aftger I got home it bucketed down briefly. Glad I left work early and beat the heavy stuff. I hope some is falling on the catchments.

Look forward to the forecast 100mm for the week, the garden needs it. Got to go on a roof at Alexandria tomorrow morning and do a test, but that won't be happening if it is pouring with rain and I need to run an extension lead up there!

Offline Steven

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #11 on: 04 June 2008, 07:49:34 PM »
It all began for us at 4am, that is when it began belting down and like Michael, I spotted several bright flashes outside from lightning when it was still dark accompained by loud cracks of thunder. It all continued until late morning but for us, flash flooding was a concern for our backyard because of poor drainage.

It was pretty full on morning and some of the heaviest rain I've seen since February. Everything flooded and low lying areas were submerged under 1-metre of water and of course you have fools who don't listen and decide to drive through swollen creeks, I wonder why emergency services even bother with people who don't even take advice and steer clear during flooding.

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #12 on: 05 June 2008, 04:04:09 AM »
This event continues into day seven with the heaviest rainfalls concentrated on the NSW Mid North Coast region in the past 24 hours to 9am 4th June 2008. A couple of the highest reported were:

189mm Nambucca Heads
193mm Mt Seaview



The Nambucca, Bellinger and Hastings rivers are all in flood this morning. Be interesting to see how the Hunter and Sydney regions go today.

For the record, the Wilsons River at Lismore failed to reach minor flood level (4.2m), peaking at 3.50m between 11.42pm and 12.28am. The Wilsons River at Eltham (below where I live) did reach 7.78m at 7.55pm with moderate flooding. Photo taken near Eltham school yesterday about 4.40pm. It is not the Wilsons River, rather a local creek that has backed up due to the river flooding.




« Last Edit: 05 June 2008, 04:28:47 AM by Michael Bath »
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Offline TroyVR

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Re: RE: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #13 on: 07 June 2008, 08:53:58 AM »
Went down to the beach atabout 4:30 and the wind is blowing steady 60kph gusting around 70.

Dismal conditions, Getting a bit cool around now also.
Posted on: 04 June 2008, 05:04:21 PM
Went down to the beach atabout 4:30 and the wind is blowing steady 60kph gusting around 70.

Dismal conditions, Getting a bit cool around now also.

Edit 6/6/08

Got report that Audley weir was flooding so went to check it out. and it was, watch this video with a few clips of cars passing through it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmzUvckR238

or these images for a large view:
http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l313/troyrulz007/DSCF0505.jpg
http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l313/troyrulz007/DSCF0506.jpg
http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l313/troyrulz007/DSCF0509.jpg

My friends car ( the blue commodore in the video) made it through fine the first time, but half way across on the way back stalled, i was the lucky one that got to push the car out, took about an hour before the engine would kick over again.

I'd just like to bring up, when attempting to cross a flooded area, always check how deep it is, assess the best way to cross, and drive SLOWLY

I did check the depth the first crossing and we kept to the left (shallowest) but on the way back he came in fast and to the right (deepest). He learnt the hard way. :)

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: QLD/NSW Rain Event: 29 May - 5 June 2008
« Reply #14 on: 07 June 2008, 02:01:30 PM »
I have some cumulative rainfall totals for Sydney since 1/6/2008 till 9 am 5 June which covers most of the rainfall event. A few lingering showers occurred thereafter however falls were much lighter. Some cumulative 5 day rainfalls across Sydney during the period are reasonable. Ten suburbs with the highest rainfalls are:-

Turramurra  140 mm
St Ives       139 mm
Belrose       137 mm
Pymble       137 mm
Brooklyn     125 mm
Gordon West 110 mm
Frenchs Forest 109 mm
Berowra 105 mm
Glenorie 104 mm
Oatley 96 mm

The heaviest falls occurred in the NE quadrant of Sydney around Hornsby and Dee Why regions. The ten suburbs with the lowest figures were:-

Canterbury 68 mm
Strathfield 67 mm
Bankstown Airport 65 mm
Liverpool 65 mm
Terrey Hills 63 mm
Holsworthy 61 mm
Concord 54 mm
Sydney Olympic Park 53 mm
Marsfield 43 mm
Badgerys Creek 41 mm

The lowest figures are concentrated widely within the Cumberland Basin of Sydney. Rainfall in my locality was in the vicinity of 71.6 mm. Another 3 mm fell to 9 am 6/6/2008 and there has been no more since.

I found a good newspaper article about this rain event in the Sydney Morning Herald titled:-
"More of the Big Wet Will Add to Hail Storm Despair", and dated 6/5/08.

It states that 82 mm has fallen on the city (Observatory Hill) since Sunday which is 2/3 of the city's average rainfall for June. The positive is that the city's dams are at 65.2% of capacity which is the first weekly increase since May 1. In 5 days, 140 mm has fallen at Turramurra including 77 mm that fell in the 24 hours to 9 am 5/6/08.

And the article looks at Blacktown and states that the wet weather is adding to the misery for some renters in Blacktown where some houses are still under tarpaulins due to uninsured landlords or those still in dispute with insurance companies refuse to fix damage from the December 9 2007 hailstorm.

It appears that this current rain event has been positive for Sydney's water supply but proving to be difficult for those who have still not had their roofs repaired in Blacktown from that storm event.

Newspaper article and full storey found at smh.com.au dated 6/6/2008.

It is also noted that this rain event has followed immediately on the heels of a very dry May for 2008.

Harley Pearman