Author Topic: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010  (Read 10773 times)

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Offline Michael Thomas

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010
« Reply #15 on: 03 March 2010, 03:43:31 PM »
Macca, you are a brave man. I tend to agree with you though. One point though, in one particular photo I have seen there looks to be a little funnel with some dust underneath (to the left of the big dust plume). This looks like the best bet for I tornado I have seen from this storm.

Anyway, I would have loved to have seen that storm, very jealous. Very chaser friendly and photogenic.

Michael

Offline Richary

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010
« Reply #16 on: 03 March 2010, 04:41:56 PM »
Macca and Michael, I tend to agree. While the dust was certainly impressive I didn't spot anything that looked like a tornado coming down from the clouds to the ground, the dust swirl was too disorganised. A few funnel like features from the clouds appeared but try as I might I couldn't spot any rotation on them in the videos provided.

Of course that doesn't mean there wasn't a tornado in there somewhere, and a damage assesment would be the only way to verify. As mentioned earlier in the thread the doppler wind image certainly looked very unusual at one stage to my untrained eyes.

I agree though, it would certainly have been an awesome storm to be chasing.


Offline Macca

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010
« Reply #17 on: 04 March 2010, 04:58:47 AM »
Hi John,

All valid points you make and pretty much support what I've said (that it is possible that it did produce a tornado but we are yet to see CLEAR evidence as such).  I also agree that all situations are different which is one of the reasons why I love chasing so much - but still, supercell structure is supercell structure. 

Even with the added images from Jane/Clyve, it is still inconclusive in my opinion.  I still think the only way to be able to draw an appropriate conclusion (based on the evidence provided so far without being there in person) will be to see video of this event which will hopefully allow viewers to see rotation in the feature/s (or not). 

Macca

Offline Brad Hannon

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010
« Reply #18 on: 05 March 2010, 04:00:12 PM »
Hi all, just a couple of points....

Macca, I appreciate the fact you've posted some in depth analysis and experienced opinion on this event, as you did with the previous thread because it/they certainly deserved it - regardless of whether you're convinced or not about the tornadoes occuring.  For mine, I would also love to see definitive video or at least heaps more pics of the reported tornado but we will have to wait I guess.  Keep in mind that Clive did not post definitive evidence of his previous Vic tornado, by his own choice and it lead to a similar outcome for those of us that weren't there - questions.  In the end though, his obs and reports were backed up by the video for those that have seen it and I see no reason to think this is any different.

You suggest you may make enemies and be perceived as biased against southern storms (a reference to previous issues  and a recent thread) but I can assure you there's no enemies from my perspective.  However, the problem as I see it is that the perception of bias that has reared its head in the past (so I am told) was simply strengthened in the last few weeks by a significant number of posters that made broad statements and offered outright opinions but simply failed over and over to provide any answers or discussion in the thread to respond to reasonable questions (some very technical and some more simple questions based on basic principals and definitions).  As reasonable as it is to expect good evidence to support claims as important as a tornado, it is equally important to respond to questions about the basis of outright claims that there was no tornado.  Unfortunately there was very little of this which surprised me and despite the great events down here last week and the structure pics you mentioned in your post, there has been such little discussion on here and it's disappointing.

Anyway, like you I am bloody jealous of those that chased down here last Saturday.
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Macca

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010
« Reply #19 on: 06 March 2010, 02:29:43 AM »
Part of the problem thou Brad is that people want to believe that what they think they saw is what they saw and don't often want to consider other opinions even when some pretty easy to read evidence is provided (to the contrary).  A lot of experienced people don't even bother posting comments against such claims now simply due to the fact that to get someone to change their mind (that what they have seen may not have been a tornado) is nigh on impossible.  No matter which way you approach it and no matter how many people provide their opinions, these events still remain as tornadoes in their eyes, even if there is no clear evidence.  Its almost as if people are not willing to take a step back for a minute and go "hang on, maybe there is something I can learn from this situation" - i know I certainly have with these events - tried to consider whether/how these tornadoes *could* be possible (granted I've come up with blanks both times).

If people choose to sit on this clear evidence and not provide it to "the people" that's their choice but I can tell you right now I won't be posting on any forum that I've seen a tornado unless I am 100% sure and have some damn good proof to back up my claims - and this isn't becuase I'm worried about the pending discussion if the photos/video don't provide clear evidence - its because I don't think a claim can be made with 100% certainty unless there IS clear evidence.

Enough from me.

Macca (still waiting for clear evidence).
« Last Edit: 06 March 2010, 02:34:47 AM by Macca »

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 27 - 28 February 2010
« Reply #20 on: 06 March 2010, 10:25:07 AM »
Brad,

The reason I did not make any comments is because if I said they were nice supercells for at least a reasonble time frame before they became outflow dominant, then I would have been slammed by people because I would have not mnentioned anything about tornadoes I could not see. I decided therefore to not make any comments which is a pity because they were nice supercells. And this is the sad point - because the comments were about the suspect tornadoes, that drew more away from the nice clean structure.

Nice supecells - the best I have seen from Victorian chasers that I can recall! And there is no doubt. They were definitely supercells! Nice deviation from the mean level flow and splitting behaviour. Bloody awesome!

That is all I will say I guess.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguar
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