Severe Weather Discussion > Tornado Alley Outbreaks and Severe Weather Worldwide

Severe Weather Forecast western Central Plains Tuesday 7th March 2006

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Jimmy Deguara:
A severe weather watch has been issued for western Central Plains with large hail to 2 inches the primary threat. This period of severe weather is anticipated to cotinue into next week as a series of waves ejects out of the Rocky Mountains.

Place your comments or observations in this thread regarding this outbreak and start new topics with similar title formats for future outbreaks of severe weather and particularly tornado threats or observations or at the least very large hail!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

David C:
Hi Jimmy,

I haven't been through any data but SPC has no risk current - it must be a very conditional situation for the next several days? What gives?

What are the spaghetti plotters seeing re the patterns leading into late March / April / May 2006.  What about the astrologers hehe.



David

Brad Hannon:

--- Quote from: David Croan on 07 March 2006, 10:11:50 AM ---What about the astrologers hehe.

--- End quote ---

Haha yes Im equally keen to know what the astrologers have to say on the season ahead - especially now that my airfare is paid :)  Surely the stars will be better aligned this year.  But seriously, good to see some action being forecast even if we arent there yet.  It would be great to hear the NOAA weather radio calling out warnings of large hail again.

David C:
I'll find one who'll tell you in 3 months Brad ;D

As for 'today' (ie 7th on the Plains) there still looks to be some uncertainty. (i) concerns over whether intitiation will occur, (ii) advection of upper level moisture. All models suggest that there will be fairly dense cirrus over the target area tomorrow, and GFS also indicates high mid-level moisture over Oklahoma - NAM does not so take your pick.

For these reasons I would probably prepare to head into Kansas (eg Harper area) where convergence is stronger and to be in better position with respect to the upper wave - I have severe bustphobia!! Further south, however, given sufficient insolation and a decent dryline (ie given initiation) then isolated supercells would be a sure bet. So, if I was there, I would probably head to the Comfort Inn at Enid and be ready to go north, or change my mind and stay put or even head a little south west! The other thing would be to keep an eye on the obs and in particular dewpoint depressions through the morning since shear will be sufficient for tornadoes.

Any thoughts / targets?

David C:
SPC 0524z MAR 06 2006:

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN  45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING FROM LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE."

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