Author Topic: Saturday 11th February 2006  (Read 4208 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Saturday 11th February 2006
« on: 07 February 2006, 05:28:59 PM »
Hi,

It is a little way out and usually I don't look that far out but Saturday is looking like an interesting event if it pans out.

Given the mositure profile, the shear and instability, conditions are favourable for supercells on the Mid-North Coast. More detailed information will be disseminated closer to the event.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
Re: Saturday 11th February 2006
« Reply #1 on: 08 February 2006, 08:35:37 AM »
Latest run is crap mate, although, that is not to suggest anything. I have had it with this year; might go and buy some new golf clubs!


Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Re: Saturday 11th February 2006
« Reply #2 on: 08 February 2006, 02:17:33 PM »
Hi David,

Absolutely pathetic! We'll see as it draws near.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Re: Sunday 12th February 2006
« Reply #3 on: 13 February 2006, 03:12:38 AM »
Hi,

It seems the models could nto resolve the day. Today the action will extend along the eastern sea board and up to the North West Slopes. Wind fields favour the coastal region with a surface and upper level trough intersectiing near the central coast of NSW.

Storms can develop with several triggers given there is an upper trough, and surface trough. Later, storms themselves if they become widespread may also initiate convection. The potential is highest according to the models is near Nelson Bay and Newcastle extending down to Sydney later. However, the morning already has deep moisture flowing inland from the northeast. The 12Z models seemed to not agree dragging drier air nearer the ranges.

The main threat of severe weather is large hailstones and very heavy rainfall and damaging winds with some severe storms. If storms can persist due to backbuilding then flashflooding is probable. The cap is weaker than would be ideal which means that storms will initiate by the early afternoon period.

Added to the complexity of this scenario is a probable meso low that is anticipated near Sydney by 06 to 09Z.

This should be an interesting scenario for Sydney and the surrounding region.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
« Last Edit: 13 February 2006, 03:30:36 AM by Jimmy Deguara »
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline Matthew Piper

  • Australian Severe Weather Moderators
  • Multi-vortex F1
  • *
  • Posts: 47
  • Gender: Male
Re: Saturday 11th February 2006
« Reply #4 on: 13 February 2006, 03:43:16 AM »
Yes I will certainly be keeping a close eye on today  :) The dewpoints are presently over 20 and a short time ago there was a brief period of drizzle. Skies are beginning to clear now and hopefully heating will begin leading to a potentially volatile afternoon period. The presence of extensive dry air above and the shortwave upper trough should lead to a good chance of large hail.
Matthew Piper

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Re: Saturday 11th February 2006
« Reply #5 on: 14 February 2006, 01:26:41 AM »
Hi Matt,

Not that I have not seen dry air invade like it did today but for the Bureau's model to not get it right like this was an incredible miscalculation. GFS had it all over Mesolaps on Sunday. Dew points even in the region just west of Cessnock got down to 5C! There was even a bushfire extedning a plume eastwards.

Storms did occur in the region north of Newcastle.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)