Author Topic: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008  (Read 60444 times)

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Offline Mike

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Darwin Storm events 2007/2008
« on: 14 August 2007, 08:38:47 AM »
Some aspects re our impending wet season look very favorable this time around.  The Madden-Jullian Oscillation is creeping closer by the week in it's higher numbered stages and already its affects are being felt with increasing humidity and shower probability along the coast.

With El Nino behind us and the nuetral phase I'm looking forward to the return of La Nina which, from what the models suggest, will bring us an early wet season.  Given that that increases the potential for storm initiation earlier also.  Last season was not too shabby with October, January, February, March being the best months for storms, notably February as that month I chased 4 out of 7 days each week which was pretty incredible.

The transitional weather is already happening this month the closer it gets to September, humidity has risen and the sun really has some bight to it compared to the dry - you can tell when things start changing because even my garden and the landscrape seem to be getting greener without me watering anything - that's a good sign of changes in the weather!

I've inlcuded a link which I found http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/ which is updated each month, this one is for August as far as tropical cyclone likelihood is concerned for us and across Australia.  It has some positive figures for this season, one I hope will continue.

Will update this thread as models change and the silly season really kicks in :)

Mike




« Last Edit: 14 October 2007, 04:39:09 PM by Mike »
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #1 on: 27 September 2007, 09:38:05 AM »
Some decent activity on radar this afternoon SE of Darwin - have you spotted anything Mike ?   Nothing on the weatherzone lightning tracker though it is a bit dodgy for the NT.

MB

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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #2 on: 28 September 2007, 11:25:03 AM »
Heavy showers today 27th Sept.  Sounding for today showed very nice speed and directional shear in the low to mids from 6-35kts.  Had two large cells to the NW early afternoon and one cell dumped a nice amount of heavy showers on us in the city, but more recently around 4pm there are two cells moving across my home which is about 22km SE from Darwin City.

 Had reports of thunder (but am not a silver member of WZ yet so could not check the tracker for anything) and it is flogging down there.  Radar images show one particularly large cell - I went outside work to have a view and it had nice height, I suspect this one may have taken advantage of the shear profiles if they were still present, to at least give it some updraught kick and taking advantage of the high CAPE. 

Most of this stuff is due to a trough within the NT although its expected to weaken by the weekend :(  It's the first precip of any note and instability for an obviously starved storm chaser, so i'm taking advantage of anything i can get at the moment until the decent stuff arrives later down the track!

Radar image of the cell over my home in Palmerston. 

Mike
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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #3 on: 28 September 2007, 01:38:14 PM »
The city got 18mm which was nice to see.  Snapped some shots on the way home of two nice 'loosely termed' storms.  With the backlit sunlight it was too nice to let go.  i must remember to clean my lens also - there's a conspicuous dot on there....

Mike

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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #4 on: 29 September 2007, 03:29:15 AM »
Someone up here got a photo of a small funnel from a large CU.  I'm trying to get the larger version so i can check it out to make sure it's not scud, but given the shear yesterday as I mentioned I would not be surprised if it was one - but will have to see the photo first to confirm...I will post it if it checks out.

Mike

edited 1Oct'07 - this just in on the ABC this morning...kinda exciting to say the least!

The Bureau of Meteorology says if Australia experiences a La Nina effect it is more likely that cyclones will hit Darwin.

The bureau's senior meteorologist for severe weather, Todd Smith, says Australia has experienced El Nino conditions for the last couple of years.

But he says there are indications it could change to a La Nina effect, which would bring an earlier start to the wet season and more cyclones in the Arafura Sea.

"In those La Nina years on average we tend to see more cyclones than normal and more activity out to that north-west, which is a bit of a risk for Darwin," he said.

"So I guess people should use that as a heads up to get their cyclone kits together early."

Mr Smith says a La Nina effect is looking more likely.

"We start to see an increasing chance of an early monsoon onset, an increasing chance of getting a cyclone as early as late November, early December," he said.

"Also with the La Nina we would tend to see more tropical cyclones than average throughout the season, so we may actually see three or four possibly during this season in the northern region."
« Last Edit: 02 October 2007, 08:40:59 AM by Mike »
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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #5 on: 05 October 2007, 02:06:11 PM »
Hector storm arose for the first time heralding the start of storms to come.  Large radar signature and produced two CGs for the effort.  Did not sustain much oomph but continued to grow albeit a weak anvil.  Produced a secondary tower during this phase later on.  Photos below taken from the office window.

Mike
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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #6 on: 08 October 2007, 05:05:22 AM »
Couple of nice cells around Darwin last night 6 Oct.  Image of the cells near Darwin which I snapped on the way to work at 5:30p which ended up being lightning active during 7pm-9pm. Plenty of CGs and CC stuff.

Mike
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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #7 on: 13 October 2007, 08:35:11 PM »
Strewth, I feel like a loner on this thread!

Finally captured some pulse jobs near Darwin this evening 12 Oct.
Three storms but one well sustained structure and showed slow movement for a fair while.  Lightning active for around 35 mintues and produced everything from cloud to air, CC and many CG's - most of which i missed due to trying to work out someone else's camera!  There were some lengthy bolts from the cap to the ocean outward and two twin CGs down the tower face Can't complain - the sunset was so photogenic for these shots!   

Only the arvo storm forecast tonight Sat 13th and then we have some unwelcome drier air from that high in the bight and even the CAP for today terrible on the sounding - will have to wait a tad longer for more regular storms it seems!

Mike
« Last Edit: 14 October 2007, 08:53:03 AM by Mike »
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #8 on: 14 October 2007, 02:57:18 AM »
Beautiful pictures of the storm Mike - I hope that cures your storm deprivation for a little while.

Sunset coloured lightning are always my favourite - good stuff.

MB
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Offline Mike

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Re: Top End wet season 2007/2008
« Reply #9 on: 14 October 2007, 04:13:07 PM »
After the bureau changed their forecast which was depressing to say the least, but they did forecast an evening storm which certainly proved right.  Daytime heating contributed to getting rid of the cap during the day and a large line of storms came through my district at around 8pm 13 Oct.  The daughter alerted me to the radar image and gleefully let me know whilst at the location that I missed a beaut staccato to my left...:(  ( I hate light poles but I was under cover!)

Mike
« Last Edit: 14 October 2007, 04:40:48 PM by Mike »
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Offline Mike

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Re: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008
« Reply #10 on: 26 October 2007, 12:15:54 PM »
Greetings all  - must be the only one from the NT on this forum!

Anyway, huge storm about 80km to the SW of Darwin this afternoon 25thOct.  Small cells sneakily converged into one large group of cells that produced some excellent number of strikes and hefty rain.  Got some photos of its structure from the harbour for you to peruse - anyone would think it's the dry season here considering the dismal storm activity of late...:(

The photos are over an hour period which was very surprising the storm lastedt that long - average low level winds kept the updraughts up and winds through the mids and aloft were only light.  The CIN for the day was nice and low - around 17c - so there was no trouble with parcels rising.  Temp and dew points were terrible in the city - 33.2 / 13-11 !, but where this storm was it was around 34.4 / 23.2 - goes to show how much the atmosphere can be ever changing and suit convection in the most unlikely of places.

The weekend looks the same for these types of storms in the same area - might have to go for a drive depending on the satpics/sounding during the day....hopefully I'll be able to post some nice CG/storm photos as the start of the season has been dismal!!

Included the latest satpic - nice overshooting top and there's storms backbuilding behind it at the mom.
« Last Edit: 26 October 2007, 12:35:07 PM by Mike »
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Offline Michael Bath

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Re: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008
« Reply #11 on: 26 October 2007, 01:13:21 PM »
Very nice, thanks for posting Mike !   That cell looks like it has punched up very high ... 50,000 feet or more ?  Checking the sounding shows barely anything to stop storms reaching some amazing heights.
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Offline Mike

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Re: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008
« Reply #12 on: 26 October 2007, 01:43:10 PM »
It was certainly long lived.  It was on the radar for a very long time building.  I knew straight away viewing it from the office window that it was not going to be inhibited by any capping - there was no inversions on the sounding for the morning and replotting the numbers for that area the instability went berko.  As from the photos, it showed classic strong pulse maturity - the anvil was smooth and crisp and still had plenty of undraught strength afterward - at night it would have been a gem to photograph.

Unfortunately Darwin is sitting in an exhaust outflow from PNG and a series of H's to the NW of Darwin, this is just blocking any moisture to initiate instability. Wind profiles did show as this storm was building NE/NW and E winds converging into the very region where the storm was maturing. This no doubt had some positive influence to spark the TS.

Forecasts were for afternoon storms this weekend in Darwin, but as always it's changed to showers.  The MJO is in its 1-2 stage and we really need it to speed up towards 4-5 stages but its not expected to arrive till November where things will definitely fire up.  All the weather obs are against us for any storms in Darwin itself and the inland ones such as todays will be the only thing of note for the next few days at least.

Depressing isn't it....!

Mike
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Offline Mike

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Re: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008
« Reply #13 on: 28 October 2007, 10:48:28 AM »
Finally the BoM got it wrong for a change!  Viewing the sounding this morning it just had all the right ingredients.  Storms started initiating around lunchtime so I headed out to get some quick snaps and then attempt some daytime lightning shots - I don't know how you guys do it but I managed to miss all of the strikes and there were many. :(.  Using the remote and on sports mode with 4 shots per second I still blew it!

Radar image has many cells popping up regularly and the storm that passed over my district dropped many CGs.  I'm fairly confident of the storms persisting into the evening, at least I'm getting the nighttime shots....

Here's some photos of the storm over my district.  Small wedging at the leading edge from inflow of warmer air, I could feel the wind being drawn into it while taking the shots.  At least I can happily say my storm observation techniques have proved fruitful over the dry season!

Mike
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008
« Reply #14 on: 28 October 2007, 12:57:22 PM »
Mike,

Those updrafts are quite substantial and spectacular. Looks like the season is under way for you guys.

Enjoy and keep us up to date!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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