Author Topic: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season  (Read 10974 times)

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Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #15 on: 21 January 2008, 12:44:37 PM »
Also to note that according to BoM's high seas forecasts. Funa has now become Subtropical (extra-tropical), and will become an intense low over the next 24-48hrs as it tracks southwards towards NZ

Big Pete
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Offline Richary

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #16 on: 21 January 2008, 03:43:40 PM »
Hadn't come across this site before but it shows the tracks quite well. And intensity levels.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200812P.html


Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #17 on: 03 February 2008, 06:05:41 AM »
Mike, amd Richary,

Seeing you both live in the NT, have either of you ever seen tornadoes develop within TC's?

Big Pete
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Offline Mike

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #18 on: 03 February 2008, 02:47:49 PM »
Hi Pete.

We've had the occasional one.  Last year of note with Pre-TC George that was deepending over darwin on its way to WA.  It produced a supercell which spawned an EF2 perhaps EF3 tornado in Kakadu National Park - I've posted a thread about that in the forum.  Caused some damage to outback home and car trailer, with several trees down.  There was a damage path also.

They do occur with depressions and cyclones, in fact most hurricanes per se can develop tornadoes once they reach landfall due to rain bands with large cells embedded and strong shear associated with them.

There's some dispute at the moment whether the NT holds some kind of tornado frequency in this country - and yes I'm fully aware of what that state is people and it aint here!!!  We don't have the conditions to support supercellular activity unless provided for by tropical cyclones or depressions.  There's not enough helicity/shear/vorticity during even severe TS's.  We get a few water spouts from strong updraughts in some storms, mostly unseen. 

The argument raging here between some folk is that because they may be unseen or unreported due to our expanse of uninhabited land that there may be more than what's actually known and that dry line supercellular storms actually do exist here due to the separation of a desert and the tropics - a dry line.

For me I stand by the simple fact that we don't get 'dry line' storms - in the actual sense of the meaning.  Anyone can get storms 'on a dry line' but not the type that most seasoned/experienced chasers have seen and usually they're supercells.  I've looked up every available online info article on tropical storms and yes, they can form on dry lines, BUT they are not 'dry line' storms in essence of being supercellular.

I quoted an article to some folk by Tim Marshall, a well-known and respected chaser/meteorologist with the SPC and NSL on such matters - even that did not change the minds of a few - goodness sake, they did not even believe him!

...another thread perhaps on this topic - in fact I'll start one.  I'd like a few answers and there's plenty of resource bodies on this forum to give it.

But, yes.  We get the odd one with monsoonal lows only if the right conditions prevail.

Mike
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Offline Richary

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #19 on: 03 February 2008, 04:00:45 PM »
Mike, amd Richary,

Seeing you both live in the NT, have either of you ever seen tornadoes develop within TC's?

Big Pete


Sorry, not me. I'm in Sydney. Have only been to Darwin once for a holiday and it wasn't storm season. Though after spending 5 years in Adelaide where there was only one decent light show I can remember, I sometimes wished I did live in Darwin!

Offline Mike

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #20 on: 03 February 2008, 04:46:32 PM »
Yeah only for six months though Richary, the rest is, mmm, well - boring weather wise if you're a storm chaser/observer! 

Mike
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Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #21 on: 12 February 2008, 05:02:32 AM »
Hi all,

Just thought i'd inform all of the impending TC forming off the WA coast at the moment - possible TC should form in the next 24 hrs according to BoM. Also, a low in FNQld may also become a cyclone if it decides to head to the Coral Sea.

Worth keeping an eye on both storms.

Big Pete
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Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #22 on: 03 March 2008, 04:56:06 PM »
I've been away from my computer over the weekend, and I almost missed a nice looking TC that is churning on the NW WA coast - TC Ophelia. Its a Cat 2 storm - much smaller than TC Nicholas, and has the potential to go deeper. Worth keeping an eye on for those who are not too far away.

Big Pete
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Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #23 on: 26 March 2008, 06:38:11 PM »
Welcome on board to the newest TC off Aus shores.

Cyclone Pancho (nice name), was born this afternoon (Melbourne time) - tracking south east from quite a fair way off the NW WA coast - it is currently Cat1, but expected to be Cat 2 by tonight - if it follows the forecasted path of BoM, then it is possible for the west coast of WA to be impacted at some stage in 3 days time.

Worth keeping an eye on.

Big Pete

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Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #24 on: 27 March 2008, 12:32:48 PM »
Seems like TC Pancho is picking up speed. May become a Cat 3 storm in the next 6-12hrs. It also has quite a violent turning near its eye, and is spraying a lot of moisture clouds back into the mainland Aussie trough - that's spread between NW WA, inland NT, SE Qld and N NSW.

Big Pete
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Offline Carlos E

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #25 on: 21 April 2008, 01:09:40 PM »
Looks like another cyclone is due for WA's area. Another Tropical Low (which started very close to the equator) has moved into the region.
« Last Edit: 22 April 2008, 01:23:48 AM by Michael Bath »

Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #26 on: 21 April 2008, 03:47:41 PM »
It would be a late season, if not beyond the normal season, for one to be forming there right now, but like Mike, I also will be scrutinising it. There also is a tropical low affecting the Fijian region too. Seems to be holding its own at the moment amongst a broad trough/front. Still not growing too much yet, but will be worth looking at.

Big Pete

(BTW - nothing happening in Melb lately, just cold foggy starts and warm clear days - no rainfall - just 6mm for April so far)
« Last Edit: 22 April 2008, 01:25:05 AM by Michael Bath »
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Offline Mike

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Re: Tropical Cyclones 2007/2008 Southern Hemisphere Season
« Reply #27 on: 22 April 2008, 10:06:21 AM »
I see that Christmas Island is under a watch. 

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 9.4 degrees South 99.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

Must be some instability in that region one thinks!  Still early days, but perhaps the west coast might see some rain out of this if nothing else - stranger things have happened, remember TC Monica!
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