Author Topic: US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007  (Read 5724 times)

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Offline Mike

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US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007
« on: 17 October 2007, 01:58:11 PM »
Big day ahead on the plains in Oklahoma if the models stay as they are for wednesday arvo and evening.  Another low pressure area is moving into the region and there's a moderate risk of damaging tornadoes if things go as the models suggests.  Bet the seasoned chasers JD et al were there for this!

Quote is from Reed Timmer of http://www.tornadovideos.net/ who is planning the chase....and I have added the WRF models to salivate over!!!!

'The WRF is forecasting an environment  of 1500-3000 J/kg CAPE, zero CIN, and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km helicity for the entire warm sector east of a sharp dryline, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 in central OK!  The hodographs look very favorable for strong tornadoes, with INTENSE low-level shear.  Shown below are some forecast panels from this evening's WRF model, with the area of highest tornado threat shaded in red'

Mike
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007
« Reply #1 on: 19 October 2007, 06:02:37 AM »
The 16th turned out to be a bit of a dud with just some modearte sized hail reports. Today has been fairly active across Missouri with 10 tornado reports so far, and a couple in other states. Biggest hail reported has been 2.5 inches in Kansas - along with a funnel.

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Offline Mike

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RE: US Tornadoes 18-19 Oct 2007
« Reply #2 on: 20 October 2007, 09:03:22 AM »
They still have warnings out.  reports of some people already injured from tornadoes.  Storm Prediction Centre link here - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ and some graphics and the like here at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/

The first loop is from 2324 to 0029 UTC and the second loop is from 2335 to 0045 UTC - (thanks to Reed Timmer for the loop times and damage list) indication of their movement to the E/NE - confirmed is thus:

0045 UTC -- 10 NW Hopkinsville -- Hopkins Co. -- Confirmed damage with injuries.
0100 UTC -- Nortonville -- Hopkins Co. -- Several buildings with severe damage.
0109 UTC -- 2 S Dawson Springs -- Caldwell Co. -- Confirmed tornado along Dawson Springs Road.  Individuals trapped in a mobile home.  Emergency responders enroute.

Jackson, Kentucky radar has all the counties to the west/east under tornado watch at the moment until at least 0500am.  Go to  http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jkl&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Radar image at the above link was taken around 0220am and the areas affected under severe thunderstorm/tornado watch.

Mike




« Last Edit: 20 October 2007, 10:33:46 AM by Mike »
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Offline Mike

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Re: US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007
« Reply #3 on: 21 October 2007, 04:10:44 AM »
Around 29 tornadoes and one confirmed fatality thus far with this outbreak in the eastern states of the US.  Three YouTube videos of a supercell that formed in Pensacola Florida, and the tornado are available to view via  http://tornadovideos.net - very good quality and shows rotation of the storm, funnels and more..quite a nasty event this one and we'll have to wait a few days for all the reports, photos and the like to come in to see actually how much damage was done.
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Offline Mike

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Re: US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007
« Reply #4 on: 22 October 2007, 04:10:25 AM »
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007
« Reply #5 on: 22 October 2007, 06:52:54 AM »
Mike,

29 confirmed reports seriously does makes this a really significant event particularly for a late season situation. This did happen a few years ago as well.

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Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Mike

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Re: US Tornadoes 16-18 Oct 2007
« Reply #6 on: 22 October 2007, 12:55:09 PM »
Indeed, Jimmy.  2007 has been a monster season as you had encountered whilst over there, the US weather is just so unpredictable. 

Would the La Nina cycle there as well be having this affect on their tornado outbreaks so late in the season? 

I view the US weather maps on and off and the amount of complex weather systems producing storms through the central plains right through to the eastern states is just amazing, but don't know enough about which state gets what weather and when!

Four dozen tornadoes in two days just beggars belief.  From the previous frontal system that came through during the 15/16Oct dropped off slightly, but the second front that came through obviously carried some serious storms with it in the latter days of last week.

The full SPC report for the 18th is here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/071018_rpts.html - it's got so much info a link was needed -  sadly several deaths now confirmed. 

Will be looking for further post-storm event reports with much interest.

Mike
Darwin, Northern Territory.
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Lightning Research 2010/14