I have been watching this one with big interest.
I have with me possibly one of the first landfall reports by Forecaster Pasch/Berg at a weather station South of New Orleans 1/9/08, reproduced here:-
000
WTNT52 KNHC 010957
TCEAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE MIAMI FL AL0720008
500 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008
AT 5 AM CDT...1000 UTC THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 40 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A STATION IN SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 91 MPH...147KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 117 MPH...189KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
Port Fouchon is at the absolute tip of Louisiana and the southernmost settlement of Louisiana. Obviously likely to be one of the closer settlements where it came ashore.
That was from SPC (National Hurricane Centre).
The scale of this and the evacuation is staggering. A new computer model by FEMA prior to landfall estimated that up to 75,000 buildings would be destroyed with a damage bill at $32.8 Billion. At the time of writing this that had not been realized but damage estimates are still coming in and climbing to around $8 to $10 Billion.
Still many think that this may tip the USA into recession and the loses will still be large.
Michael, the hurricane largely followed the path that you posted in your earlier post. It was quite accurate and it followed roughly the same path that I was viewing on the NOAA sites. Generally forecasters largely got this one right.
In total 4,500,000 residents evacuated with 2,000,000 evacuated from the Louisiana coastline alone. Of that 250,000 evacuated from New Orleans but around 10,000 chose to stay in New Orleans. I have no idea where and how such numbers are housed during these events. Just the evacuation would cause massive social dislocation and costs in itself.
It shut down 96% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.
I was also viewing the rain radar images at the time of landfall and noted that it did not take long for the main rain bands to sweep across the city. I also noted tornado watch boxes and severe warned thunderstorms to the city's east at the time of landfall.
A report from the Hurricane Hunters aircraft just prior to landfall confirmed that the storm would not intensify further and the storm would slow and weaken. Further, dry air was found to be intruding into the eye wall.
Still after landfall, the storm had weakened and the New Orleans levies were tested. Flood waters have almost crested over a few levies. I was reading on CNN regarding a private levy possibly failing but emergency work ongoing to prevent that. Generally, and despite the struggles, the levies may hold.
There is also fear of two navy vessels breaking their moorings and crashing over a levy.
The biggest threat now is the amount of rain that will fall over western Louisiana and eastern Texas that will cause serious flooding. That is still unfolding.
Amazingly Hurricane Hanna is moving towards northern Florida which is still cleaning up after the floods caused by Fay. Further Ike may be forming too and looks like this one may be headed towards Florida too.
Harley Pearman
