Author Topic: Melbourne and Southern Victorian Storms 18th Feburary 2007  (Read 4190 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline supercellwish

  • Rope Tornado F0
  • *
  • Posts: 14
Melbourne and Southern Victorian Storms 18th Feburary 2007
« on: 19 February 2007, 07:56:28 AM »
Hello every body this is my first post, first of all i am really, really glad to be here in amongst some of Australias finest chasers. myself im a bit of an amateur, but i get a little better each storm season. I first started chasing in SE qld, between Brisbane, nth, to Noosa, and Nanango, i my g/f calls it J's triangle, coz i used to loose things when ever I went chasing, mobile phones, cameras, money, car keys, even my self. Then sadly we moved to victoria, where the storms in Western Vic have not been so grand, well not like some of the beauty's i used to chase in 'the triangle'

However today is looking promising, the bom has issued a storm warning the covers a huge expanse of land. I like to chase after lightning, so I'm allways after something severe. I often here ppl say things like 1 strike every 10 - 15 seconds, but i have not seen a cell like that since being in qld. the cells I say throw out a strike every 1 to 2 minutes sometimes longer, I'm always turning up at the wrong place at the wrong time, i usually too early and something takes my attention (like another cell far away) and ill go after that, only too arrive too late. Today a Front is arriving with a prefrontal trough, it extends across a large area, which is prolly the reason for the boms blanket warning. My concern is that  in front of the trough the RH is around 25 at 1000mb, and on the aft side of the front / trough the RH is good, all over the place though. Does this even matter? I understand we want dry air up high, but what about here on the ground, and no I haven't finished this guide yet,I'm about half way through, but with having to do my %10 of chart reading, my usual ritual of trying to get other ppls confirmation of my readings, i have no time to read, before heading out for a chase.

I guess given the LFTX of -1 and a little better every where the front will be a good trigger, CAPE is not so high tho how can the bom expect severe weather in the west, Geez Ive got a long way to go understanding Victoria's weather. Up in qld, i barely had to look at the GFS, and when I did, I only looked at LFTX because the weather was so much more text book (for lack of a better word) I mean but down hear it seems very complicated in order get all the variables right before we get some developmeant, however Eastern Vic has always seemed quite a bit better than Western VIC, even though most ppl who live in eastern Vic would argue otherwise.

I feel like racing out to meet this front, as far as i can get before we reached each other, but the fact is might be better staying home as I have a hill near by that will give me a marvelous view of Port Philip Bay, and allot of the path this system will take across Melbourne and geelong. but..... If for some reason, not much is visible or not much lightning in the section of the front / trough that crosses my area, ill be stuck, i will first have to travel 30 k behind the storm and then have to catch up and get ionfront, and ill need to pass through to city's, geelong and Melbourne, (in other words, if I don't leave soon, ill be stuck here.

Oh yes, Ive been using the NOAA NCEP GFS, but I can not figure out which variable is for Wind? theres allot to choose from, so I look at LFTX, CIN, and CAPE, but Ireall want to look at shear at diff levels, anyone? Anyhow, ill be back later today after my chase Good luck to any one else chasing today :)

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Re: Melbourne and Southern Victorian Storms 18th Feburary 2007
« Reply #1 on: 19 February 2007, 08:25:11 AM »
Welcome to the forum.

Although I don't want to further discuss the use of models in this section, here is a link to what I use in terms of my storm chasing plans. I was the first to extensively use this resource amongst all storm chasers:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/links/ozcharts.htm

go to Avnplotter

It basically does what you require.

Good luck with your chasing today - follow the best balance between moisture and heat and upper level cooling as well as wind shifts. Remember to only discuss the chase and show pictures in this section. Generall weather is where general questions are asked.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)