Author Topic: Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009  (Read 7022 times)

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Offline Colin Maitland

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Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009
« on: 18 February 2009, 02:04:42 PM »
I posted earlier today, a gale warning from a tropical depression, for the area around Fiji, in SE QLD and NSW floods. The depression has now formed into a cyclone called INNIs.

Gale Warning 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/0717 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone INNIS 10F [995hPa] centre was located near 21
decimal 8 South 163 decimal 9 East at 170600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 21.8S 163.9E at 170600 UTC.
Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 13 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre, increasing to
40 knots during the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 200 nautical miles of centre in the
southern quadrant and within 120 nautical miles elsewhere of centre.

Forecast position near 24.5S 162.4E at 171800 UTC.
              and near 27.9S 160.1E at 180600 UTC.

All vessels  within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 025.

The post earlier was

Just browsing the charts and BOM, there is a system coming through which could be worth while keeping an eye on. There is a weak tropical depression just off Fiji.
It is moving west south west which means it will miss the top end of QLD, the models at this stage show a low of the QLD/NSW coast by Wed 19/02/09.
The low will continue to move south and by the Thursday will combine with another low on the NSW/VIC boarder.
You could have a very wet and windy week approaching.
Brisbane is forecasted to have showers increasing to rain as the low nears.


GALE WARNING 025 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/0108 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [1000HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 164.7E AT 170000 UTC

MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.

CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE SECTOR 30 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND IN THE SECTOR 30 TO 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

ALL SHIPS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX
PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

This is the latest Sat Pic today (17/02/09)

Looks like it will still slide down the coast according to the models, but will keep an eye on it.


 
« Last Edit: 18 February 2009, 02:14:46 PM by coltan »

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009
« Reply #1 on: 18 February 2009, 04:17:03 PM »
This is the track map for cyclone Innis Cat 1. as of the 17/02/09

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009
« Reply #2 on: 19 February 2009, 03:10:45 AM »
WZ synoptics for cyclone Innis as of 18 Feb 2009. A cat1 cyclone. At this stage, 8.20am EST. cyclone Innis, is not recognized as a cyclone threat to the east coast of QLD. He is situated 160.5 Deg east. I wonder if once he moves to 160 deg east or less, he will be shown as a cyclone threat and an alert or warning for Australia will be issued. He has slightly changed course last night and heading southwest, slightly closer to the coast. Unless he changes course completely and heads west, he wont pose a threat to QLD.  The latest Gale warning for cyclone Innis is

Gale Warning 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/1940 UTC 2009 UTC.

CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE...
Tropical Cyclone INNIS 10F [995hPa] centre was re-located near 24
decimal 8 South 160 decimal 5 East at 171800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 24.8S 160.5E at 171800 UTC.
Cyclone moving southwest at about 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in the
southern semicircle and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the
northern semicircle.

Forecast position near 28.8S 158.8E at 180600 UTC.
              and near 33.4S 158.5E at 181800 UTC.
 
« Last Edit: 19 February 2009, 03:21:29 AM by coltan »

Offline Richary

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RE: Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009
« Reply #3 on: 19 February 2009, 11:13:38 AM »
Now an ex tropical cyclone, but life could still be interesting on Lord Howe Island overnight.

NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Damaging Winds, Flash Flooding,
For people on Lord Howe Island

Issued at 4:50 pm on Wednesday 18 February 2009

Synoptic Situation: 3:00 pm EDT Wednesday
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Innis was located approximately 350 kilometres north northeast of the Island moving to the south at about 40 km/hr. On its present track the Low will pass close to the Island just before midnight tonight.

This is an update of the warning issued at 1.50 pm Wednesday.

East to northeast winds are expected to strengthen to average 65 to 80 km/h for a period this evening with peak wind gusts reaching 110 km/h. Following the passage of the low, winds will shift northwesterly and moderate Thursday morning. Very heavy rain is expected to cause local flash flooding late today.
Wind direction and speeds, and amount of rainfall, will depend on the track of the Low.

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009
« Reply #4 on: 20 February 2009, 01:45:02 AM »
Attached are the observations for Lord Howe Island - nothing too dramatic but does show the pressure falling and rising and a 180 degree wind shift over a couple of hours.

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Innis: Coral / Tasman Sea 17-19 Feb 2009
« Reply #5 on: 20 February 2009, 04:55:14 AM »
I found this post from the New Zealand site, they are preparing for the remains of Cyclone Innis.

Storm moves closer - warnings issued    (Posted by wwakld on Thu, 19/02/2009 - 12:37 )

Former tropical cyclone Innis is lining up to dump heavy rain across New Zealand.

Warm waters fuel these storms and as you can see from this image sea temperatures are warm right throughout the Tasman Sea.

A THICK WALL of cloud is lining up along New Zealand's entire western coastline as weakened ex-tropical cyclone Innis moves closer and 15 severe warnings are issued.

Much of the nation has had a relatively sunny morning but sky conditions will change significantly for western and northern regions as the afternoon wears on.

Government forecaster MetService has issued a number of rain warnings for the North Island hill country.  Western slopes along the eastern Bay of Plenty ranges may receive as much as 200mm from this storm over an 18 hour period.  150mm may fall on Mt Taranaki and Westland with less amounts across other regions in between.   For a full list of the warnings click here.

According to WeatherWatch.co.nz the ex-tropical cyclone joined forces overnight with another low in the Tasman Sea - connected to the flooding rains in Queensland - and this will help deepen the low further.  It may well end up as a bigger system near New Zealand than it was as a cyclone near New Caledonia on Wednesday.

The air pressure is expected to fall from around 998hPa to the low 980's.

Mr Duncan says at this stage wind isn't the issue.   He says the air is laden with moisture and heavy rain will be the main feature.  "The rain storm may flood some streams and rivers across western New Zealand from southern Waikato to the West Coast.  This system is loaded with very heavy rain - flooding and slips are a possibility if it lingers".

Wind, while unlikely to be severe, may pose a problem over the weekend for some areas after the low has deepened - mainly Southland, the Southern Alps and Wellington.  Hot nor'westers may also drive temperatures into the 30s across the North Island's east coast tomorrow.

Western areas of both islands, near and west of any main divides will be highest risk for heavy rain says the Weather Watch Centre, anywhere south of Tauranga and Waitomo down to Fiordland.

WeatherWatch.co.nz says ex-tropical cyclone Innis is now directly west of the North Island - less than 1000kms offshore and heading south.

Mr Duncan says today the forecasts will become much clearer and by this evening it will be easier to pinpoint the areas likely to have torrential rain and those likely to receive "just a normal days rain".

Heavy rain in the Tararua Ranges and Hawkes Bay ranges may also help lift river levels flowing through parched east coast farms and rain across Canterbury and Marlborough will be much appreciated by farmers, so long as it isn't too heavy.

As with most tropical storms their predicted path is often not 100% clear. We'll be closely monitoring the development of this low over the next few days with special updates if needed.  ( end of Post)


These are the current warnings for NZ
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:45 am 19-Feb-2009

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NEW ZEALAND ON FRIDAY

A low over the central Tasman Sea is expected to deepen and move
towards to the country, becoming slow moving northwest of Fiordland
by midday Friday. A front associated with this low is preceded by
strong northerlies and very humid air.The front should sweep across
the North Island and much of the South Island during Friday bringing
a period of heavy rain to many districts. For the central North
Island and north and west of the South Island, around 100mm of rain
is possible in a 12 to 24 hour period, however up to 200mm may fall
in eastern Bay of Plenty. Many other regions are expected to receive
significant amounts of rain, but not enough to justify a warning. A
watch is in place to give further details in these other areas.

People in these areas are advised to keep up to date with the latest
forecasts and watch for rising river levels and possible surface
flooding.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND FORECAST CHARTS PLEASE GO TO
http://metservice.com

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS
FOLLOWS:

____________________
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
____________________

AREAS AFFECTED: NORTH ISLAND HILL COUNTRY FROM KAIMAI RANGE TO
TAIHAPE AND FROM MT TARANAKI TO EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY RANGES, TARARUA
RANGE, RICHMOND RANGE TO NORTHWEST MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS, NORTHWEST
NELSON RANGES AND WESTLAND RANGES BETWEEN OTIRA AND BIG BAY.
FORECAST:

MT TARANAKI
Rain is expected to develop tonight and become heavy overnight. In
the 12 hours from 1am to 1pm Friday 100 to 150mm is possible about
the summit. Heaviest falls likely around dawn when intensities may
reach 25 to 30mm/hr.

NORTH ISLAND HILL COUNTRY FROM THE KAIMAI RANGE TO TAIHAPE INCLUDING
THE HIGH GROUND EAST OF STRATFORD AND WEST OF MURUPARA
Rain will set in overnight and become heavy by dawn. In the 12 hours
from 3am to 3pm Friday 80 to 120mm of rain is expected. Heaviest
falls are likely late morning when 20 to 25mm/hr is possible.

BAY OF PLENTY RANGES EAST OF MURUPARA
Rain should become heavy Friday morning. In the 18 hours from 9am
Friday to 3am Saturday between 150 to 200mm is possible. Heaviest
falls during Friday afternoon could reach 25 to 30mm/hr.

TARARUA RANGE
Heavy rain is expected from around dawn on Friday. In the 9 hours
from 6am to 3pm Friday 75 to 100mm of rain may fall. Heaviest falls
are likely from late morning when rainfall rates may reach 25 to
30mm/hr. Although the rain eases,showers may continue into Saturday.

RANGES OF NORTHWEST NELSON
Rain is expected to develop tonight and become heavy overnight. In
the 12 hours from 3am to 3pm Friday 75 to 100mm of rain is possible.
Initially rain will fall in a strong northeast flow, but winds should
turn northwest around dawn with the passage of the front. The front
is likely to bring the heaviest falls when intensites may reach 20 to
25mm/hr.

RICHMOND RANGE TO NORTHWEST MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS
Rain should become heavy before dawn on Friday. In the 6 hours from
5am to 11am Friday 50 to 60mm of rain is possible. Heaviest falls
during the morning with hourly rates of around 20mm/hr possible.

WESTLAND RANGES BETWEEN OTIRA AND BIG BAY
Rain is expected to set in overnight and become heavy around dawn on
Friday. In the 24 hours from 6am Friday to 6am Saturday 100 to 150mm
is possible. Heaviest falls are likely Friday afternoon with
intensities reaching 25mm/hr.

FREEZING LEVEL: Around 3800 metres over the South Island.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE
9:00pm Thursday 19-Feb-2009

Forecast prepared by: Chris Noble

For further information after 2pm contact Duty Forecaster Oliver
Druce

A service provided through a contract with the Crown