Author Topic: Victoria bushfires 7 February 2009, record heatwave for SA, VIC, TAS and NSW 27 Jan to 8 Feb 2009  (Read 70441 times)

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Offline Colin Maitland

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It looks like you have to add NSW to the list. This was an extract from an aricle I was reading it says

Much of NSW will fry under scorching 40-plus temperatures at the weekend but a cool snap next week should provide eventual relief, cutting temperatures by 20 degrees.

NSW can expect hot weather on Thursday, with Penrith in Sydney's west forecast to hit 40 degrees celsius, while areas in the far west of the state could see the mercury reach the mid-40s.

The scorching temperatures will continue through the weekend, climaxing with 44 temperatures in Sydney's west on Sunday, and temperatures as high as 47 in the state's west.

A welcome southerly change will sweep across NSW later on Sunday, bringing an end to the heatwave.

Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Jake Phillips said everywhere was going to be hot in NSW.

I have downloaded the surf Temp chart for  Sat 07/02/09
« Last Edit: 06 February 2009, 03:22:54 AM by coltan »

Offline Michael Bath

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The BoM have released a special climate statement for the heatwave - which will be updated when things cool down

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs17.pdf

And attached are the 850 temperatures forecast for Sat 5pm local time. Add about 17 C to get afternoon surface temps (in non-elevated areas) and it's going to be an extreme day !

MB
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Offline Colin Maitland

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This is an article from Bigpond news Today  05/02/09, relating to the heat waves in Australia this year,


Weather watchers warn Australians will have to get used to more heatwaves after the temperatures that have scorched the country's southeast so far this year.

While Tasmania experienced its highest temperature on record, much of Victoria and South Australia baked in temperatures well above 40 degrees - the highest being 48.2 at Kyancutta, SA, on January 28.

Victoria peaked at 45.8 degrees at Avalon Airport on January 29, then Charlton on January 31, falling short of the state's record of 47.2, while Adelaide also sweated through its warmest night on record, the mercury slipping to only 33.9 in the early hours of January 29.

Around the same time, RAAF Edinburgh, in the city's north, recorded a temperature of 41.7 degrees at 3.04am, fanned by strong winds.

'Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia,' a climate statement released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Wednesday said.

Climatologist David Jones said global warming, while a key issue, was not the sole reason for the heatwave.

'It's a complex discussion. What global warming does is . .. it increases the frequency of hot events and decreases the frequency or likelihood of a cold event,' Dr Jones said.

'It's about relative probability. Look back over the last decade in Australia, we've had one or two really cold spells but we've had many more really hot spells and that's what it's about.

'It's not saying this heatwave has been caused by global warming, it hasn't - we've had heatwaves in the past.

'But the likelihood of this has been increased by global warming, the severity of these events has probably been increased by global warming and the likelihood of seeing these in future will increase further as the globe warms.'

Dr Jones, acting head of the National Climate Centre, says it was anticipated Australia would experience a two- to four-degree celsius warming this century.

'We're going to be routinely seeing 45-degree temperatures in Australia come the end of this century under global warming,' he added.

'We're seeing large increases in heatwaves globally over the last 100 years. That's going to continue, it's going to accelerate and really ... people are going to have to get used to these sorts of heatwaves, they're going to become a lot more frequent.' ( end of article.)


Mean while, back  in QLD, we have averaged in Brisbane Approx. high 20's-30C but very high humidity, which seems to makes everything heavy, and sweaty. By the looks of it, life jackets and learn to swim classes are the go for the rest of QLD. There is so much flooding and rain and it is heading its way down the coast. Rockhampton is now on what they call Cyclone rain watch.
 
« Last Edit: 06 February 2009, 05:17:25 AM by coltan »

Offline Harley Pearman

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The heatwave has continued throughout southern and south western NSW during Wednesday and Thursday with no respite. I have been looking at temperature records and those from Weatherzone and note that:-

- Places like Albury has just experienced 11 days in a row where maximum temperatures have topped 37C. That is unprecedented. The maximum temperature at Albury reached 41C on 5/2/2009.
- Places Like Ivanhoe has had 8 days in a row where temperatures have topped at least 42C.

Maximum temperatures of between 38C and 44C were again common at 3 pm across the region on both days.

The worst affected areas for both days were the western Riverina, far south west New South Wales and western New South Wales as well as north western Victoria around Mildura and Swan Hill.

By the time this is over, more maximum temperature records may be set.

On 5/2/2009, some of the heat reached western Sydney again with Richmond topping 40.5C and Penrith 39C plus 37C in nearby regions.

Today - 6/2/09, Saturday - 7/2/09 and Sunday 8/2/09, it will continue with temperatures expected to reach 38C to the lower 40s across western Sydney before a stronger southerly change ends the current spell from late Sunday.

I have seen forecasts of 44C maximum temperatures for some places across inland New South Wales on Saturday and Sunday but with a cooler change crossing the southern part of the state throughout Sunday that will bring relief.

Harley Pearman

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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John et al,

Not sure if I have hinted in other threads or even this thread, I must say in the past it was rare for the Bureau to forecast temperatures above 42C or 43C. Last Sunday, there was a forecast for Saturday at the time - 6 days out - and they were predicting 44C! That is insane! Now of course it has shifted to Sunday and Saturday still very hot.

I have never experienced or recall a heat wave of this nature. We have had a majority of temperatures in the near mid 30's or above in western Sydney throughout most of January and now February. Surely the temperatures of 44C on Sunday must be some sort of significant record for western Sydney even given it is February.

This is a heat trough from hell!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Shaun Galman

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This is a heat trough from hell!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Chasing Region: Lightning Ridge. N.S.W.
Website: www.ridgelightning.com

Offline Ursula

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Hi Jimmy,

there where 40+ degrees in Lansvale in feb of 1971 for 3 or 4 days running with a top of 46, it would have been a few more degrees higher where you live

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Quote
Hi Jimmy,

there where 40+ degrees in Lansvale in feb of 1971 for 3 or 4 days running with a top of 46, it would have been a few more degrees higher where you live

Is anyone able to substantiate this with figures from the Bureau of Meteorology for the western Sydney region?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Harley Pearman

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High temperatures for 6/2/2009

On 6/2/2009, some very high maximum temperatures were recorded across inland New South Wales as shown in the Bureau of Meteorology 3 pm Weather Bulletins:-

New South Wales:

Ivanhoe 45C, Pooncarie 45C, White Cliffs 44C, Wilcania 44C and Wilcania Airport 45C.
Other towns particularly in the far west scored between 38C and 43C.

The heat is entrenched in the Central West as well with the hottest location being 44C at Condobolin with 35C to 43C being common elsewhere.

The Riverina was also affected again with 44C at Hillston and 39C to 43C common at other localities.

The South West slopes continued to suffer with 44C at Quanialla, 43C at Wyalong and 41.6C at Albury. Temperatures of 38C to 42C were common again.

Metropolitan Sydney:

Following 39C and 40C at Penrith and Richmond and 38.6C where I live on 5/2/2009, it reached 41C at Penrith and Richmond. The heat has now reached parts of Western Sydney again for the second day in a row.

Victoria:

The heat is still entrenched across the northern parts of the state with 42C at Mildura and Ouyen and 41C at Kerang.

South Australia:

It reached 42.8C in Adelaide City and temperatures in the low 40S were common throughout.

(Daily Weather Bulletins 3 pm, Bureau of Meteorology 6/2/2009)

Saturday:

I have seen some very high maximum temperatures forecast for Saturday in New South Wales including 45C at Griffith, 44C at Albury and 42C to 44C at many other locations.

In Melbourne, the forecast is for:-

Frankston 41C, Tullamarine 44C, Yarra Glen 44C and Mount Dandenong 40, Geelong 44C, Laverton 44C, Scoresby 44C and Watsonia 44C. Forecast minimums for Melbourne vary between 18C and 24C.

The CFA for Melbourne has declared a total fire ban in addition to forecasts of raised dust and north westerly winds of 35 km to 50 km/h during the morning. However, the forecast is for the cooler change to arrive late afternoon that will end the heat.

The cool change will be spreading across Victoria and New South Wales during Sunday that will end this heat and bring relief to the affected regions.

Harley Pearman

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Harley,

Thanks for the report. It just so happened that this afternoon, about 2pm, I was checking the temperatures around the place including inland NSW and then I decided to venture into South Australia. Ceduna reached 46C at that time and many centres in South Australia well north of Adelaide were in the low to mid 40C range.

Anyway, just for completeness sake. Also, inland Western Australia also reach 44-45C over the past few days though cooling down somewhat today.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Harley Pearman

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I have attempted to find some data for February 1971 but could not.

I am only aware of one substantial heatwave affecting Sydney city occurring sometime during January 1967 in which the city experienced 4 days of 37.8C or 100F or more. However, I am also aware that it did not hit 40C on all 4 days and on the last day the temperature just made it to 37.8C before a southerly change came through. I forget the actual dates but I have read about this weather event in old Bureau of Meteorology archives. I have been unable to find further reference to this of recent times.

I went to "Don the Weatherman - World Weather Trivia Page" to find out more about hot weather in Sydney. I have found these:-

Highest temperature recorded in Sydney was 14 January 1939 when it reached 45.3C. It has not been approached since. It is quoted that this is so unusual given the average maximum temperature for Sydney (Observatory Hill) is 25.8C during January and Observatory Hill averages 3 days over 30C every January and 1 x 40C day every 10 years.

I have found nothing for 1971 but 46C occurring over 3 days does not seem to be right. I will keep looking to see if I find something.

While looking, I also found other interesting maximum temperatures that will put this current 2009 heatwave into more perspective:-

a) The last 50C day recorded in Australia was at Mardie in Western Australia 1998 when it reached 50.5C (Second hottest day with the highest at Oodnadatta of 50.7C on 2 January 1960).

b) The hottest day ever recorded in Victoria was 10 January 1939 at Mildura when it reached 47.2C. (This record is also quoted in a Sydney Morning Herald Report titled "Sweating it out - With more to come dated 4 February 2009). It seems to be accurate.

c) Wilcania (NSW ) barely recorded 50C on 11 January 1939.

(These figures seem to be in line with what I have seen in textbooks and seem reasonable).

(All figures are from, Don The Weatherman - World Weather Trivia Page).

This current heatwave is certainly intense and lengthy but to date, I have not seen any of these temperatures reached or exceeded across Victoria or New South Wales.

Further on this weekend, I am aware that 70,000 volunteer fire fighters and other fire fighters are on stand by. There are 38 bushfires burning across parts of the state but not sure how many in Victoria. Authorities in Victoria are warning of a catastrophe similar to Ash Wednesday. Authorities in Victoria are even going to great lengths to tell people not to drive too far or delay travel plans. With the heat coming ahead of this cooler change, it is shaping up as a potent weekend.

Harley Pearman

Offline Rhett Blanch

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Jimmy,
Just to back up your statement re Western Sydney the following is a a graph of Penrith's temperatures since mid December.  Since Jan 1 there have been 26 days over 30+ and 17 days 35+ based on the Daily Observations Data.

Refer: http://weather.wilgatree.com/recent-weather/?filter=Penrith&id=IDCJDW2111


Elsewhere I note Ivanhoes' impressive run of over 40 degree days which stands at 11 and I guess will continue today:

Refer http://weather.wilgatree.com/recent-weather/?filter=Ivanhoe&id=IDCJDW2065

Offline Michael Bath

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Melb up to 43.5 at 1pm so has broken the Feb record of 43.2. All months record is still 45.6

VIC records: Feb: 46.7C, all months: 47.2C

Bushfires are visible on the Melbourne radar


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Offline Michael Bath

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VIC all time max temp record has been broken with 47.3 at Avalon (just NE of Geelong). EDIT: Melb is up to 45.7 so has its highest ever temp too.

Quite an extraordinary burst of extreme temps to finish this heatwave event in parts of VIC.
« Last Edit: 08 February 2009, 09:05:28 AM by Michael Bath »
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Carlos E

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Wow this is intense.

Melbourne is now 46.0. They're only .1 off Adelaide's all time record, and .2 off Perth's (and this countries record in terms of Capital Cities).

Avalon has almost reached 48 (47.9).

EDIT: Melbourne has recorded the hottest temperature ever in a Capital City in this country, beating Perth's record (46.2). The new record stands at 46.4.
« Last Edit: 08 February 2009, 09:19:15 AM by Carlos E »