Author Topic: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season  (Read 12248 times)

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Offline Colin Maitland

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1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« on: 17 January 2009, 12:39:28 PM »
When I come across a you tube clip of a 1973 tornado that happened in Brisbane on the 4th November I started to compare the weather pattern of 1973/74 with 2008/09.

So I started to look at the storms we have had and their intensity, the flooding out West and up North and the outlook for cyclones and the cyclones that have past. You can dig very dip into this subject and compare.

I grew up in Brisbane, and remember a lot of the storms. In 1973 we had a family stay with us for a week due to the flooding up North. They could not get through by train to Townsville. As a kid we had a hell of a lot of fun playing with your mates forced to stay with you.
The follow seems to sum up what I am thinking and feeling.

WHILE local forecasters are being cautious and predicting "normal" summer conditions ahead, some factors suggest a far stormier outlook.
Several computer-forecasting models, which have proved accurate in tracking weather anomalies, are tending towards the return of a La Nina pattern, which would mean more rain across the state, humid and stormy days and a considerable increase in the chance of cyclones across the north.
Those computer models are backed by an interim report by the World Meteorological Organisation, which rated 2008 – the 15th warmest year ever – as a record year for extreme weather events, and nominated Australia to have abnormal weather conditions over the coming months.

Our Wicked Weather section
Several Australian meteorologists, climatologists and long-range forecasters agree.
They say current indicators show us heading for a wet summer like 1973-74, when Brisbane was flooded after a deep tropical depression, (cyclone Wanda) dumped huge amounts of rain across the southeast.
From 1970 to 1975 there were 15 cyclones in the Queensland area, six of which spun weather in some way directly across Brisbane and the southeast corner.
"If people are thinking the weather is similar to what we saw in Australia during that period, they would be right," said Dr Andrew Watkins, of the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre.
Queensland long-range forecaster Hayden Walker, who studies sunspot activity, said this year's floods, storms and monsoonal activity indicated a return to the wild weather patterns of the 1970s.

"The next few years (to 2010 at least) appear to be a copycat of 1973 and 1974," he said.
Mr Walker expects above-average rainfall, extreme cyclones, and flooding and cold winters until the end of the decade.
University of Southern Queensland climatologist Prof Roger Stone said indicators were showing that the past eight dry summers were an anomaly, and this summer was likely to return to a typical peak rain-producing season.
"The weather patterns we are seeing now are very similar to those which gave us lots or rain and cyclones, for example the 1974 floods," he said.
Prof Stone said weather forecasting was entering uncharted territory because it was hard to identify what role climate change would play in future extreme weather events.

"But the whole east coast (waters off Queensland) is warm enough to sustain a southern cyclone impact," he said.
(edited from courier Mail article by Samantha Healy December 20, 2008 11:00pm)



SO are we in for it, time will tell. It is now 35 years since that weather pattern, and the great floods of Ipswich and Brisbane. It will be 35 years this December the 25th that cyclone Tracy hit Darwin.
We have our grab bags ready and our evacuation plan prepared, copies of all-important documentation etc. We hope that all passes without any harm or damage but you cant take a "She’ll be right mate attitude." Our house sits on a hill overlooking Moreton Bay. There is nothing between the Island and us. We will cop the full fury if one hits.

Cheers.
« Last Edit: 18 January 2009, 08:23:47 AM by coltan »

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #1 on: 17 January 2009, 01:46:30 PM »
hello coltan i have found this video containing a clip of that tornado

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=HURlLa1CFWo

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #2 on: 17 January 2009, 04:54:39 PM »
Thanks

It is awesome how that old camera picked up the sound of the wind, its mind blowing.

Cheers

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #3 on: 17 January 2009, 04:57:00 PM »
i think that it is amazing that queens land had an tornado do you know what it was rated as in f1 or f2?

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #4 on: 17 January 2009, 05:00:29 PM »
The information I gathered on it from the BOM was:

On the afternoon of 4 November 1973, intense thunderstorms built up west of Brisbane. One particularly active storm generated several funnel clouds, at least one of which touched down as a strong tornado west of the city. At one house in its path only the water pipes remained! The tornado continued through Brisbane’s western and southern suburbs, damaging nearly 1,400 buildings. No deaths occurred, but many were injured. This tornado had a path length of 51km, with peak wind-speeds estimated at over 250km/h; however American meteorologists studying the event concluded that the wind-speeds could have topped 300km/h. This tornado remains the most damaging in Australia to date. (© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2009, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532))

going on the Enhanced  Fujita scale it may be an EF3
Cheers

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #5 on: 17 January 2009, 05:02:26 PM »
wow that sounds like a very serious tornado i will try to find some pictures of it if i can

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #6 on: 17 January 2009, 05:07:59 PM »
here is a picture of the tornado it is all i could find for now but you can just visualize with the description of this powerful tornado just how strong and what size it was the destruction was very very bad though a lot of damage!

heres the pic

stormboy

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #7 on: 17 January 2009, 05:30:08 PM »
I think  that photo is the Bucca tornado, ( might be wrong.) 


The Bucca tornado was rated as an F4 on the Fujita scale. It occurred on Sunday 29 November 1992 at about 2.30pm (04.30z) and damaged or destroyed nine houses at Bucca, Queensland - which is about 25km west of Bundaberg. Bullyard, 10km SSW of Bucca was also affected by this tornado. Hail to cricket ball size was also reported.


Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #8 on: 17 January 2009, 05:34:48 PM »
ok i will go back and check because i saw it and it was under 4 nov 1973 tornado

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #9 on: 17 January 2009, 05:40:39 PM »
i went back and checked this is a picture of the tornado(above) and here is what kind of damage it caused (below)

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #10 on: 17 January 2009, 05:46:28 PM »


Thanks
Those are definately of Brisbane,


But it is deceiving the way the show it the tornado for 73 tornado, but this article may show it as the Bucca, and I think it is the same picture Michael Bath has for the Bucca Tornado
But the link is http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/storm1.htm
I am probably wrong.
« Last Edit: 17 January 2009, 05:54:48 PM by coltan »

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #11 on: 17 January 2009, 05:48:25 PM »
heres some interesting info

Every now and then, The south-eastern quarter of Queensland tends to experience an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Similar days include November 5, 1995, December 10, 1999 and more recently November 27, 2006. The following is my personal recollection of weather events (and included BoM findings) on the incredible day of 29-11-92.

I was woken early by a very loud electrical storm near 5:30am. Taking a look outside, I noticed that it was nearly finished, but another storm was evident directly to the west with brilliant CC and CG lightning. As it moved over, lightning hit the nearby ground in all directions, with simultaneous claps of thunder. With CG strikes coming down at the rate of one in every five seconds, I was forced to go inside despite the fact that it was a relatively dry storm. After 20 minutes or so, it cleared to a sunny but hot and humid morning with scattered weakening towering cumuli over the inland.

The forecast was for an afternoon thunderstorm ahead of a late afternoon SE wind change. By late morning however I was very disappointed because a full overcast had developed over us. I didn't know that by 11:30am storms were developing over the inland >100km NW of us, near Esk. Just after midday a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, giving me quite a surprise. Living in the Brisbane southern suburbs, I was told not to expect anything, but that changed when hailstones started to fall at the Brisbane Cricket Ground (the 'Gabba), where a Test Match was being played between Australia and the West Indies. Unfortunately the cricket wasn't on local TV, but the radio commentators told us the story, with hail up to golf ball size falling. The ground staff covering the pitch were given helmets to reduce any injury and the spectators had to move undercover. At my place, a gust front had appeared to the NW, and soon after hail up to 3.5cm in diameter started falling. Most stones were unusual in shape. Some were jagged balls, while others were 2cm long and 0.5cm wide and some oval shaped. The SE wind change followed the storm, but an hour later an unusual very high based storm bought more hail, this time only 1cm diameter before moving on. No rain fell from this storm, and it lasted only 2 minutes. The first hailstorm was most intense to our NW, where blankets of golf ball hail covered lawns and caused car damage, but no strong winds were recorded. Later I found out that the hailstorms we experienced were actually weak compared to the other storms that occurred during the afternoon.

 The storm that was situated just east of Esk at 12:40pm split soon after, with the southern half (the right mover) affecting Brisbane and the northern half (the left mover) affecting the Maroochydore area on the Sunshine Coast. This hailstorm was very severe, with 8-10cm diameter hail and severe wind squalls. This definite supercell storm damaged 80 houses which had their roofs punctured by the hail, capsized five catamarans and damaged thirty light aircraft at the airport. Fourteen very distressed people who were swimming at the surf beach were rescued also and hundreds of cars were damaged. Home video of the phenomenal hailstorm was captured as the giant hail pummeled the area.

At 1pm an eastward moving storm was first detected on radar about 100km west of the Mt Kanighan radar, and split into two ten minutes later. The southern storm, moving in an ESE direction was unusual that although it had a very large hail area, no damage was reported as it tracked through the Gympie area. The northern storm, moving in an ENE direction was to become the first tornadic storm of the day, and radar displayed the characteristic 'hook' indicative of a supercell thunderstorm. At 2:30pm the storm moved over the Oakhurst area, where an F3 tornado occurred. The tornado luckily moved over a sparsely populated area and only destroyed one house and severely damage several others, while three cattle had to be put down. A pine forest in the path of the tornado was flattened like a huge lawn mower had moved over, leaving a wall of trees untouched on either side. A resident who saw the tornado said: "it was like ten freight trains all at once; this big spiral of rubbish, leaves, bits of tin flying around everywhere…" Again, this storm produced tennis ball size hail, smashing hundreds of windows after being driven by severe winds. Eyewitness account --->

The next severe thunderstorm to develop over Eastern Qld was even more severe. A cell was first detected SW of Mt Perry at 2:20pm, but unlike the earlier storms, it did not split. As the storm moved ENE it moved through the Bucca and Bullyard areas inland of Bundaberg producing 8-10cm hail, damaging downdraughts and a violent F4 tornado. The Kolan-Bucca areas were hardest hit by the tornado, with 9 houses being extensively damaged or destroyed. Twenty cattle were killed or later put down due to serious injuries.

Quoting from a report titled: "Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes in Southeast Queensland" compiled by Bryan Davies and Sue Oates of the Severe Weather Section in the Brisbane Bureau of Meteorology, an eye witness, Mr Peter McLellan offered the following evidence of the severe winds:

1/ Stones embedded in trees;

2/ 16-20cm sapling approximately 4-5m long driven through 5 walls of a house;

3/ Picture frame embedded in opposite wall;

4/ Fridge blown away and never found;

5/ 3 tonne truck body blown or carried 300 metres.

Weather Bureau investigators rated the tornado at least an F4 on the Fujita-scale because of the way it obliterated brick houses and carried away debris.

The final and northern-most severe storm to develop on this day first appeared on radar just after 3pm and moved through the Gladstone area after 3:30pm. The golf ball size hail that accompanied the storm caused extensive damage to crops but only minimal damage to residential properties.

On average, every year 3-5 tornadoes are reported over Queensland, but of course because of our low-density population many more are not. They are most likely to occur over SE districts, but it isn't rare for a tornado to accompany a tropical cyclone crossing the coast over Northern Districts. Luckily although several residents were inside their houses when destroyed on this day back in 1992, none were seriously injured or killed. One day our luck will run out and a high population area will be hit by a severe tornado.

I would like to thank the Severe Weather Section , of the Brisbane Weather Bureau for providing the very useful information on these severe storms.

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #12 on: 17 January 2009, 05:50:08 PM »
i also think it is the bucca tornado now maybe the website made a mistake
« Last Edit: 18 January 2009, 01:30:23 AM by Jimmy Deguara »

Offline Michael Bath

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Re: 1973/74 comparison with 2008/09 season
« Reply #13 on: 18 January 2009, 08:06:21 AM »
Just a reminder to please include the source of information you are posting - that means including copyright credits or website links to where the information was copied from. Posts may be edited or removed if non-compliant.

Information about the Bucca tornado is in this thread.


Also, don't forget to have a search through older threads before starting ones with the same or very similar topics.

Thanks in advance
Michael (and other forum moderators)
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Contact: Michael Bath