Author Topic: Tornadoes Moderate risk! Severe weather likely today and tomorrow!  (Read 2606 times)

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Moderate risk! Severe weather likely today and tomorrow!

A large upper-level trough is currently strengthening and advancing east  over the Rocky Mountains, eventually bringing a threat for severe thunderstorms  to portions of the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and  evening. Eastern Kansas into Missouri, Iowa and Illinois all stand the chance of  seeing severe thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon. Although forecast  models are still suggest that a strong cap should suppress convective initiation  for most of the day over a large part of the risk area, low-level moisture  will continue to stream into the region, resulting in modest to high  instability; strong directional wind shear over this area suggests that the  initial mode for any storms that do fire should be supercellular. Strong  tornadoes and extremely large hail will be possible with these storms, along with  damaging winds. As the storm system evolves and shifts eastward (progression illustrated by 500mb winds, above), the wind fields  will intensify substantially but should be mostly unidirectional, bringing what  at this time would appear to be a major damaging wind threat to a wide area near  and east of the Mississippi River on Monday. Lower-level wind fields are  currently not matching up with the upper level winds in a way that would suggest  a major tornado outbreak--a few days ago, forecast models were showing a  near-apocalyptic scenario unfolding for the mid-South, but that does not appear  to be what residents will have to be dealing with at this time. Regardless,  lines of intense severe thunderstorms capable of very damaging winds do seem  likely, and tornadoes will still be possible overnight Sunday throughout the day  on Monday, so residents of these areas are encouraged to carefully monitor  local outlooks and advisories for the latest. TVN will be chasing today and  possibly Monday, and a number of chasers will be streaming on the Live page as  well, so be sure to check out what's happening in real-time!
« Last Edit: 05 April 2011, 12:48:07 AM by Jimmy Deguara »