Author Topic: NSW and VIC supercells 12th & 13th Jan 2011  (Read 15416 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
Re: NSW and VIC supercells 12th & 13th Jan 2011
« Reply #30 on: 22 January 2011, 06:52:30 AM »
Hi David and Jimmy,

I have read both your posts and can say I somewhat agree with some of your points and disagree with others. I do believe firmly that context has been blurred in some of your posts which can confuse readers and angles have been taken that are not relevant and dont need to be brought up in order to discuss this issue.  There is little point persisting with this and referencing each one individually anymore.  It is clear that you will not be convinced from my response and I will not be satisfied with yours.

Rather than inferring my chase experience and forcasting ability (which is totally irrelevant) is lacking and appearing to attack that, perhaps you can absorb the tech information and pics posted by John and respond to that although it seems that his contributions are being systematically ignored.  I hope that is not the case.

In the interest of not being or appearing hypocritical I will acknowledge David I couldve addressed my 2nd post to Jeff in a different manner so I will apologise to him for that.

Jimmy, re you storm example and another example of where this discussion loses context - you seem on the attack like I have denigraded that storm - that was a ripper storm, no doubt a classic and I know you got under it and close.  My comment was in reference to your image example that shows the vertical storm structure from long distance compared to our chase which was close the entire time.  I dont think it was helpful that's all.

You want to see tripodded video and I can understand why but there isnt any.  The chase was 95% on the road with storm motion not allowing that luxury.  The video is dashmounted with very little timelapse per se and im fairly certain it wont change anything so that's that.

Re the title thread, I was actually going to suggest that the mods can change the title if it is their preference.  Not that you need my blessing but go ahead thats fine.  In fact, I realised afterwards that I shouldve posted in the existing thread for those dates.

Finally, Jimmy you say you possibly wont post on this anymore and thats your call.  But why would you enter the discussion, address only posts by me and ignore any information provided by John?  That could appear very selective so hopefully you will consider discussing some of the technical info, evidence or advice presented by John previously and today.
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
Re: NSW and VIC supercells 12th & 13th Jan 2011
« Reply #31 on: 22 January 2011, 07:46:06 AM »
John,

btw this post was made in response to your first post to me. You have moved things along, provided more photos so I will need some time to catch up.

Quote
This may be part of the problem, radar can lie...for various reasons which have been already stated here. It would not be the first time a storm in this area has not conveyed a true return. http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR493-yarrawonga/2010-12-08-00/2010-12-08-11. Watch closely any behaviour west of the NS part of the border form storms forming in this region, either miraculously ever storm strengthens as it approaches yarrawonga, or the radar misreads in this area, possibly due to beam interference along the murray (maybe trees near the radar site). This being said the storm in question on the 13th actually shows an orange core for part of its lifecycle, so perhaps its a little less showery than some may interpret.

and

Finally on the attenuation point David are you aware of the refractive index of air with a minimal dewpoint depression and tropical drop size. It wouldn't be the first time a particular radar is found to have a weakness due to beam width/location.
Quote
Regarding the second point I draw to your attention the following from the official bureau information on doppler performance: Rapidly translating mesocyclones

John, yes, this is all common knowledge to chasers, so point out where the strong inbounds are (as opposed to a gustfront), which is what I would expect to see here. It appears that there are none.

Quote
Given the flow velocity on the day this is likely to mean that any mesocyclone is difficult to detect with full vertical doppler velocity, between lone minimum scan height as occurs in this situation.


Not sure what you saying here? I chased cells on May 10 that were racing @ > 100km / hour to the north-NE towards Tulsa. No problems with seeing mesos that day! Out course you will have asymmetric in- and out- bounds, but so what?  Surely any difficulty in meso detection in this situation would ultimately relate to the strength of the storm circulation against the speed or propagation, yes?

Quote
Lets look at the position of our chase vehicle relative to the storm, we are relatively speaking behind and slightly in front of the curvature arc. There is no precipitation to our west, this is completely clear air (you would note the exposure increase). The storm is moving roughly south while we look SW.
Quote
Inflow above is curved in towards the storm from the NE vectors in the 1km layer (3919,3934,pic 1 from me).
Quote
The other thing I would point out is how exactly do you get a shelf with no precip/outflow behind it other than RFD, and to be orientated NE to SW with a lower section if the storm is moving S? It makes no sense, not to mention going against observation.
Quote
This also displays the distinct curvature of a rotating updraft in a HP (that being precip outflow to the left of the tail which resides in front of this feature, and to the right also, however this may be a result of distortional correction confusing the issue, I will attempt to rectify this.

I really cant see this so will look forward to your rectification J

Quote
Finally I point out that the repeated blind faith in any supercell reported on the NSW east coast vs the heated questioning on any cell in the Southern Riverina/Victoria is utterly obvious on this forum, and speaks volumes towards the jealously over the seasonal performance of this area.
Quote
I would like to point out that if NE-NSW really does take storms "to the next level" then it must have started particularly lowly given the poor record this season, and last season. Realistically your jaded views of the season should have no influence on your attitude to anything else. I wonder the reaction if the same disbelief and question was posted in every singe thread from there. Regardless of the bias, the supercell police need to remember that NSW does not own rights to it or its definition. If we are to continue this debate such disbelief and querying of moral integrity must be raised on every single storm claimed on this forum, not just those posted by myself and Brad.
haha, this is going way off in another direction. I will say that if this forum is home to the supercell police, I have heard whispers that you are the tornado governor J.
« Last Edit: 22 January 2011, 08:01:52 AM by David C »
Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
Re: NSW and VIC supercells 12th & 13th Jan 2011
« Reply #32 on: 22 January 2011, 07:55:39 AM »
btw, good to see more posts. For my part, I'll read them tomorrow since I intend to be pleasantly inebriated tonight.  Remembering that insults are the first refuge of the ignorant, I really hope people from all corners of the discussion can debate the issue and not the person. Have not had a good discussion for a while and this is a good warm up with the US season only several months away :)
Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Re: NSW and VIC supercells 12th & 13th Jan 2011
« Reply #33 on: 22 January 2011, 04:19:05 PM »
This topic is locked. No further discussion will take place.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Forum Moderator
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)