Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Thomas on 20 November 2008, 02:47:19 AM

Title: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 20 November 2008, 02:47:19 AM
Well I really didnít get the chance to follow Sundays event since I was busy traveling. I was quite amazed at the damage that occurred. While I donít have much to add about Sundays event, I will start some discussion on the next several days. Just focusing on SE Qld, I think there is real potential both today and up to Friday or Saturday. Today, shear is a little slack with quite weak mid level winds (though much stronger to the W and SW). GFS does have a small area of stronger mid-level winds between 4 and 7pm but thatís most likely reading into things too much. This weak shear should be offset by the strong instability. I suspect we will see dpís in the low 20ís by the coast with tempís in the high 20ís. This would result in CAPE getting to around 2500 j/kg. Certainly plenty of juice for severe storms. In my opinion Thursday and Friday look the best at this stage. GFS has SE Qld in the jet exist region both days with surface wind coming from deep in the coral sea. This may give a better combination of shear and CAPE to give some powerful supercells if things come together. The following forecast sounding for tomorrow certainly looks very nice with CAPE of 2500, LCL below 1000m and 0-6km shear around 40 knots.

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-27.92&lon=153.15&date=2008112006&gribdate=2008111812

Hopefully though there is not too much damage from these storms. I am mainly interested in the science behind severe weather and am not terribly interested in seeing widespread damage happen propriety.

Michael
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 20 November 2008, 04:50:31 AM
Hi all,
Just a quick update here as I have to act- camera batteries to charge etc.

If you have a look at the current radar we have a bit of a large storm on approach from our West now (10:47am EDST)

Looks to be highly active so I will be switching off for a time until it passes. Seems to be around Brewarrina now so I usually give it 40mins to an hour until it's here (given directions and speed remain stable)

I sure hope it's carrying some decent structure! :D

EDIT:

Upper Western Storm Report 19th Nov. 2008. 12:53pm
Russ and I went out to await the storm but the major cell on radar had slipped by us and went down towards Walgett. We did have a small active pulse storm form 30k's to our NW which weakened after 15mins. We arrived to photograph it just as it reached maturity with a little lower scud hanging around the edges and a few fast single CG that we had trouble catching even with continuous shooting! Russ trialed his new Neutral Density filters giving him around a second exposure but I don't yet know how he went? He rattled of a couple hundred shots so I hope he was rewarded for his efforts! I only took around 8 photos as I usually count to 15secs and give the KV field time to charge enough to ground itself in these little partially active cells. There were a few good multiple strikes and the odd single CG but only around 20 in all.
The cell had a great little flanking line that was very convective and rather uniform in a nice straight line. We were soon beaten by a heavy shower that we could hear approaching through the trees so we made a hasty retreat back to the car. The cell has since moved South of town and I haven't heard thunder in some time.
The temps here are approaching 30ļc currently so it looks like more triggering is very possible given the very humid conditions? I will post a couple photos today.

Take care,
Shauno
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 20 November 2008, 07:17:12 AM
Quite interesting at the moment. I suggest having a look at the 512 km Warrego Radar Loop. There is quite a large discrete cell SW of Charleville. Would have to say it looks to be a quite powerful supercell. Also storms have formed around border NW of Moree. The lower level moisture and shear west of the ranges in NSW is actually quite good (Moree is currently 26/20). Hopefully something get going around this area soon.

Michael 
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 20 November 2008, 11:42:15 AM
Upper Western Storm Update 19th Nov. 2008
Hi all,
Just returned home from photographing a pretty awesome storm that built on the rear of a weakening storm at 3:30pm. Russ and I saw the shelf cloud of the building storm impact into the rear of the first storm and unleash hell in the way of a large hail core! There were at least 30-40 huge bright staccato CG firing through the unreal structure (well unreal for us out here? lol) Russ managed 10 amazing photos and I (without ND filters) managed to catch 3-4 good photos just with hand shutter reactions! We are still under the enormous anvil shield now but I can see the storms forming to the west from here which I will post a shot of when I can. The main hail/rain core passed us by to the North East which was nice as we stayed totally dry for a change :D

I will still have to take the shots off the camera but I won't until I know we'll be free of storms for a few hours. I'd like to see the storms come our way tonight that are on the line out near Bourke currently!

Take care if chasing today!
Shauno
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 20 November 2008, 02:54:20 PM
Upper Western Storm Report & Photos 19th Nov. 2008

Hi guys,
Here's just a few of my photos from this afternoon's great cell. This cell impacted the first weaker HP storm at 4pm. Russ and I watched the shelf cloud race over town and collide into the first storm and become severe with a monster hail core and a beaut green tinge! I have never seen this happen before now. I wont post any of the photos from earlier on as they are just not in the same league as these. On with the shots...

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2416&g2_serialNumber=2)
An amazing hail core collapsing from the main updraft towers! Staccato CG were everywhere and only 3-4secs apart. I'd take a storm like this everyday if I could ;)

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2420&g2_serialNumber=2)
A panorama of the flanking line which was feeding in to the Westerly side of the main cell. Those towers were just boiling over!

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2423&g2_serialNumber=2)
My first ever daylight CG with the Canon! I was only managing 1/50 of a second at f/8, 100ISO but even relying on my reactions alone I had some decent luck (though missed a few beauties let me tell you, Russ however didn't so I may post a link to his photos)

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2426&g2_serialNumber=2)
So close yet so far! lol. Just missed it to the left of shot DOH! The bolts were staccato-ing 8 to 12 times and even in broad daylight with the partial sunlight behind us the bolts had the capacity to blow out! When does this ever happen??? Not too often I bet :D

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2432&g2_serialNumber=2)
Now that's more like it. I kept remarking to Russ about just how green/aqua the right side main updraft was! I'm sure that if you could fly behind that white hail shaft, the ground would be white for sure.

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2435&g2_serialNumber=2)
Russ at work. He got a few ripper shots with his new neutral density filters on. I recommend trying them for daylight lightning!

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=2438&g2_serialNumber=2)
Weakening off now 5pm-ish. Some mamatus was growing overhead on the absolutely massive anvil but soon broke into virga.
I also have to apologize for the bus in the photos? The CG were so fierce that we just had to race out to where we could see everything okay and start shooting! There aren't too many options here when we've had 35mm of rain.

See how we go if anything rolls in tonight? I'll be ready for anything :D
Kindest regards and take care,
Shauno 
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 20 November 2008, 03:36:49 PM
Nice structure and lightning Shauno - lovely contrast with the menacing precip area. Bus, what bus ? - adds to the scene:)

Been lightning around here this evening with some very infrequent anvil crawlers and deep booming thunder across the valleys. None of it photogenic as it's all over the place and raining too.

Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 20 November 2008, 04:30:10 PM
Hi Shauno,

I am glad you got to it - nice flanking line. Did it seem to be a right mover? One would not have been surprised that storms were lightning active today.

Here is a look what a weakening cell looks like west of Moree!


---> all photos for 19 November 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/jd20081119.html)


(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1119jd05.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1119jd05.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1119jd06.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1119jd06.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1119jd07.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1119jd07.jpg)


Regards,

Jimmy Deguara


Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 20 November 2008, 05:13:11 PM
Somr rumbles here tonight but everything is up in the clouds here in Sydney as the rain band moves through. Forecast storms for tomorrow night though, fingers crossed. Have a bit of light rain falling at the moment with the odd flash up in the sky - enough for me to disconnect the 9 metre high earth rod from the radio gear but not enough to pull mains power on things.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Carlos E on 20 November 2008, 06:04:31 PM
Gatton has received about 100mm of rain in the past 2 hours in QLD.

A lot of rain on the Brisbane Radar atm. Going to be a very wet night there.

Edit note: Corrected an error.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Storm Surfer-Jo on 20 November 2008, 10:27:52 PM
I tock off at about 3pm up to the Lion's Lookout @ queens park to grab a few pics of the  2 storms that where around the south east region ,They where aobut to come together. A smaller cell that was in the Lockyer Valley and a larger one that was aproching the Southern Downs . But I was unable to up load thsi pic due to size . That is something I still have to marster. The storm hang out over the 2 major dams. Witch well be good. For a far amout of time and stuck to Ipswich like glue for a few hours. then headed out to the east.All along the east coast  had a great socking of rain with a small storm up in Gypie. With other west of northen rivers. I got to watch one very nice lighting show that lasted a while with lots of sheet lighting in it. Nothing like a good rumbble of thunder to end a night off.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: nmoir on 21 November 2008, 12:20:15 AM
The storms which passed through brisbane this morning seemed to be rotating around themselves , looked like an east coast low for a while
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 21 November 2008, 12:44:41 AM
Heavy rain seems to have caused a lot flooding in SE Qld overnight. Still early at the moment so not much information on the news. I did find this article though-

http://news.theage.com.au/national/more-storms-floods-hit-southeast-qld-20081120-6bpl.html

The Gatton AWS recorded 171mm of rain overnight and greater falls were recorded elsewhere. Usually I would have a look at radar from the strike one site however I am using very expensive internet at the moment. I did briefly look at the radar last night around 8-9pm EDT and there was a clear bow echo a with book end vortex on the ranges. I would not be surprised if there was some wind damage associated with this bow echo. 
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 21 November 2008, 01:22:56 AM
As far as storms go I believe there should be decent potential for another round of severe storms. The main difference between today and yesterday is that the mid-level winds are much stronger (40knots at 500mbar). Currently GFS has the surface winds generally too NW'ly for my liking. However, I believe there is the possibility of N or NE'ly surface winds east of the ranges. With N or NE'ly surface winds there will be more than sufficient shear for supercells in SE Qld and NE NSW. CAPE should be quite respectable, replotting a forecast sounding for Brisbane with 28/20 gives CAPE of around 2000 j/kg.

Not a sure thing but certainly worth watching. I would have to say large hail and strong winds will be possible today. Rain totals from these storms will hopefully be much lower today with storms moving much faster. Tomorrow still is looking interesting as well. In fact the mid levels cool tomorrow (-12 at 500mbar) with strengthening upper level flow. If there surface winds remain N or NE'ly and deep moisture is present I have feeling that very large hail would be possible.

Michael
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 21 November 2008, 04:20:16 AM
Again storms firing around Warrego with quite an intense right mover south of Roma. It may end up being a very long lived storm since there is no junk in its path.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: David C on 21 November 2008, 04:59:27 AM
The storm complex that moved through Sydney metro late last night/early morning gave about two hours of frequent lightning, often times flangs, and about 30mm to Bankstown and Homebush; at times it was pretty heavy rainfall too.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Steven on 21 November 2008, 06:56:40 AM
OK last night we missed out on the deluge but there was heavy rain up until 2am, accompanied by deep booms of thunder, and very little wind to report surprisingly. I know it is a different story for Brisbane and surrounding areas that have been inundated, especially around damaged areas of The Gap.

So today I did my own re-plotting for West Brisbane at 30/18 and got a fairly nice -5.29 LI and 2541 CAPE, but that's not it. Sheer is looking surprisingly good today compared to yesterday at 700MB & 500MB so we should all be definitely in for some action later on I think. Only just started mastering Skew-T's lol.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: jamesdumar on 21 November 2008, 07:31:39 AM
I am seeing strong cumulus development here in Inverell and it is muggy.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: David Brodrick on 21 November 2008, 08:07:23 AM
Storm Report - Narrabri, NSW

Low based cells moving east just dropped about 15mm in a few minutes, blacking out my webcam, and many strong wind gusts were recorded by local weather stations, including 100km/h at Narrabri Airport and 92km/h at my place.

If you're interested:
http://narrabriweather.net/

Now back to work if I can calm my excitement..
Cheers,
  Dave
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 21 November 2008, 09:35:46 AM
Hi Shauno,

I am glad you got to it - nice flanking line. Did it seem to be a right mover? One would not have been surprised that storms were lightning active today.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Hi Jimmy, et al.
I didn't seem to be a right mover that I noticed? It was a steady split of the main larger storm at 3pm over town that this smaller, more severe cell impacted into. It was small but clocking a fair pace with a weak 'scud' shelf that disappeared once we started taking the pics. It went in a basic straight line from the West, over the norther edge of town and out towards the East which is the direction the photos were taken.

I did however notice a good left mover on radar that was heading SE from 40-50k's South of Bourke and made a sharp left hand move back up towards Carinda around 6pm-ish. It looked well formed and it was isolated by itself.

Thanks for the kind words MB! Luckily the core of that cell missed town only a few hundred metres as it passed us! I don't know what the totals were from it unfortunately? But we've received a further 5mm today with two cells passing across town. I only picked up 2 good CG but the rain would have made photography impossible. We are under mostly blue sky again but there seems to be Cu building out West again. Temps are 28.7ļc currently.

*did anyone else come across that left mover just inland of Coffs Harbour yesterday afternoon on radar?
Regards,
Shauno 
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: James on 21 November 2008, 12:05:12 PM
A nice cell moved across NW Sydney around lunchtime today. A few photos as it moved across from Richmond. First one is the mammatus under the anvil of the earlier Central Coast storm.

    (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-11-20-01jh.preview.jpg) (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-20-01jh.jpg) 

  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-11-20-02jh.preview.jpg) (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-20-02jh.jpg)

  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-11-20-03jh.preview.jpg) (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-20-03jh.jpg)

 (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-11-20-04jh.preview.jpg) (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-20-04jh.jpg)

  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-11-20-05jh.preview.jpg) (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-20-05jh.jpg)

  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-11-20-06jh.preview.jpg) (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-20-06jh.jpg)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: nmoir on 21 November 2008, 12:49:09 PM
these two cells just ahead of the squall line look to hit brisbane , they already look nasty.  doppler picking up 90kpm + winds from the line

Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Carlos E on 21 November 2008, 12:53:32 PM
BoM's weather radar server is understandably quite slow at the moment. Must be very high traffic.

I hope it doesn't affect the same areas again.

My apologies if this post comes out twice, dunno where my other post went.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: David Brodrick on 21 November 2008, 01:34:14 PM
Narrabri, NSW Storm Report

Hey folks. We finished up with the 100km/h wind gust, substantial hail (to 1cm size) and up to 32mm of rain being measured near Narrabri. Our new webcam captured a pretty slick timelapse movie of the storms today. I've just cobbled a quick report together on our Narrabri Weather site, any feedback welcomed!

http://narrabriweather.net/events/20081120.html

Best wishes,
  Dave
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 21 November 2008, 01:43:56 PM
Hi David B.
Wow that time lapse is amazing! It's good to watch directions of each cell and how they interact / dissipate etc. I thought seeing the anvils looming overhead then an onslaught was particularly interesting to watch :D

Looks like Brisbane is about to receive more troubles on the radar currently. I hope they are prepared for any outcome tonight.

Take care,
Shauno
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Harley Pearman on 21 November 2008, 02:23:08 PM
South east Queensland storms - A probable 1 in 80 year event:

Auburn Council's Drainage and Development Engineer and myself had a look at this rainfall event for south east Queensland focussing on two weather stations being Amberley and Gatton. The figures are:-

Amberley:

At 7 pm 19/11/2008 there was 0.2 mm of rain in the rain gauge. The main burst starts at 7.30 pm.
By 2.30 am 20/11/2008, there was 156.6 mm in the rain gauge and 157 mm by 3 am. That is effectively 157 mm in 7 hours. It works out at 22.4 mm per hour. The Drainage Engineer has calculated this out between a 1 in 80 and 1 in 100 year event.

Gatton:

It starts at 5 pm 19/11/2008 with 3.2 mm in the rain gauge and or 0 mm at 4 pm. By 2 am 20/11/2008, 170.4 mm was in the rain gauge. It was over by 2 am. It works out 21.3 mm per hour for 8 hours or 23.88 mm per hour for 7 hours (Excluding the 3.2 mm that fell between 4 and 5 pm). Again it falls within the rank of a 1 in 80 to 1 in 100 year event.

It is regarded as a major rain event when calculating rainfall intensities, stormwater runoff and flooding impacts.

One gauge had 243 mm in it being the top fall.

Blacktown:

Overnight a substantial storm passed across the Sydney area. In Blacktown it produced sustained winds and a short lived blackout (Probably due to tree branches falling across nearby power lines where I live) and sustained rainfalls for around 35 minutes. Additionally a sizeable tree in Mantaka Street was knocked down as well. It produced 32 mm of rain where I live.

I saw one cloud to ground lightning strike and the remainder of the lightning was within cloud giving a great strobing effect but no opportunities for taking photographs.

Harley Pearman
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 21 November 2008, 03:49:21 PM
Same here at Rydalmere Harley. Lots of stuff in the clouds but saw no bolts. We got 30mm from last night's storm.

As for Brisbane, had an email from the ex that the storm were she was (Fortitude Valley just east of the CBD) got hail and a bit of overflowing gutters again this afternoon as the storm came through.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 21 November 2008, 03:51:55 PM
Gyday all here is a story of a Guster that formed near Lismore this arvo. Julian from Brisbane just got here in time for pics as well!!! The line of storms certainly formed nicely with moisture on tap and with cape to load up on. Afterwards this cell had moved to the east the Anvil cloud  exhibited some awesome anvil crawlers before dark. A weaker cell to the west gave a breif show of Stacatto Cg's

  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081120rwa.jpg)
  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081120rwb.jpg)
  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081120rwc.jpg)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 21 November 2008, 04:14:33 PM
Here's two more. This weaker cell held some promise for a while....a few stacatto's  thunder rolling around the valley was pleasant too :)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081120rwd.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081120rwe.jpg)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 22 November 2008, 04:27:13 AM
It seems yesterday there was significant hail from a Storm that hit Blackall in Central Queensland. The report on the ABC newsite states many homes and cars with wind smashed as well as a caravan park that has been re-aranged by the hail and strong winds. It'll be interesting to see the hail size from this strom as it sounds like it's probably around the 8cm mark.

Regards Jeff.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thompson on 22 November 2008, 04:49:34 AM
Chased yesterday (20th) to the Hunter Valley with Feral. I have rarely seen a cap (or lack of ) break so quickly. At one stage on the expressway near Moonie Moonie the view north and northwest was cloudless blue, yet by the time we made Raymond Terrace it was convective popcorn. Unfortunately this limited what had potential for a nasty day.

We pushed west of Maitland to Branxton where we encountered a severe cell.  The outflow winds would have pushed towards 100kph, enough that a tripod could not stand. (my have some film later)

 
   (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108a_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108a.jpg) 


 (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108b_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108b.jpg) 

The shear was very quick and literally within 2-3 mins of the above images we were overtaken by the wind and hail. The very first stones we saw looked close to golfball, but were very isolated. I think Feral's X Trail got smacked on the side by one of these (we forgot to look for a ding). As hail increased the size dropped to 2-3cm.

Very short lived and we headed back to Maitland.
The situation did not look that great, it was now quite cool and all CAPE had been mopped up and the storms were heading NE. We knew from the early cells that we had no chance of running down the line, so we headed home.

However we did score a very photogenic an isolated cell near the Hawkwsbury River, even a possible mid level shear funnel.

 (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108c_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108c.jpg) 

 (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108d_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108d.jpg)

 (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108pan3x_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/201108pan3x.jpg)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 22 November 2008, 05:24:24 AM
I would be interested in seeing the radar from the Backall storm. Certainly sounds very damaging. Fortunately, Backall is within reach of the Longreach radar (not trying to be funny there). Despite the stronger shear yesterday, storms really struggled staying isolated from very long. From the radar it would seem that there were several short-lived supercells on the ranges. The squall line then was the main show for the coastal regions. Within the line it did seem as if there was embedded rotation around the NSW/Qld border. This was picked up on the doppler image as well as showing up as a notch on the line (by reflectivity). From memory there was also a bowing segment afterwards as well in the same general area.

I would have to say there is again potential today as well. I cannot see storms being as wide spread today as the trough is much nearer to the coast. However, Brisbane airport is currently 29/18 with an NE'ly breeze. Replotting a forecast sounding for Brisbane for 28/20 gives around 2000 j/kg of CAPE. I can easily see moisture depth being a problem today but assuming moisture depth is sufficient I would expect severe storms to be possible with large hail the main threat. I am guessing there should be a E-W orientated boundary laying south of Brisbane. That would result is somewhat of a triple point (a poorly define one if any) which I am guessing could be an area to watch....just a guess. Don't take my forecast too seriously.

Michael
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 22 November 2008, 06:22:03 AM
The storm last night was certainly interesting and fast moving to say the least! I was outside my unit with a friont row seat so to speak watching it rapidly approach from Canungra-got small hail here (prob around pea to marble sized) with constant ligtning flickering as it roared through. A couple of pics i managed to get on my phone. Got some nice video which i am working on as to the speed which this storm rapidly approached from the west ( it was amusing to watch the flying fox's trying to fly against the wind and getting no-where lol)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 22 November 2008, 07:10:09 AM
The Brisbane sounding looks great. A nice cap sitting at 850 mbar with deep moisture sitting below, dry adiabatic lapse rate from 850 to 750 mbar with cold dry air above. Plotted at 31/17 gives an LI of -7. I would expect some moistening below the cap during the day which can only increase CAPE. Westerly's are pushing in really close to the coast which is concerning at this stage but the potential for large hail is very real for coastal areas.

Michael
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 22 November 2008, 08:11:23 AM
Gday All,

Here is my report from yesterday November 20 2008

I started my chase initially targeting an area just south of Casino after noticing some nice updrafts and a reasonable echo on the radar. In transit there was some nice development in the area to the south of Casino.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3906.jpg)

I headed for an area about 10kms south of Casino and watched an impressive but high based cell to my south. Fresh convection was pushing up all the time, with quite a few CG's pumping out of the base. I also noticed some nice clear air CGs shooting out the rear of the cell. Unfortunately this cell was taking a SE'ly track so I let it go in anticipation of more development. At times it exhibited some awesome pileus displays.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3918.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3923.jpg)
 
I then settled in for a bit of a wait for the next lot of development to arive, but after a quick consultation with Michael Bath (who was unable to chase) on the radar situation it was apparent nothing was in the immediate area. He directed me to a cell which was near Evans Head, so with nothing else around off I went. On the drive down the cell had some nice powerful updrafts, with a nice shelf cloud structure.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3929.jpg)

It was a race to the coast but it beat me offshore in the end with most of its previous impressive structure now diminished. After another quick call to MB I decided to head back to the Casino area as there was cells coming off the range from Tenterfield and near Urbenville.

I headed to an area  about 5kms North of Casino which provides an uninterrupted view from the SW to the NE. The two cells coming off the ranges were now in view with the storm coming down from Urbenville(WNW) appearing the stronger of the two. CGs were quite frequent from both cells and just as I was about to set up the tripod for some pics a CG landed not too distant from my position, so I shelved that idea and continued to watch the unfolding scene. The cell from the NW was now showing a decent guster so I decided to make the hop further Nth to Kyogle. Just before I did I noticed a very suspect lowering which lingered for a minute or so. To my eyes it looked like a funnel.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3942.jpg)

Cropped version

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3942-1.jpg)

Maybe someone with a bit more knowledge on these things could come up with an explanation

The storm still looked still quite distant so I jumped in the car and headed for Kyogle. On the way it was apparent that I had lingered to long in my previous position and the cell was moving alot quicker than I realised, so it was a race again to try and beat it to Kyogle. All the way powerful CGs were hammering the earth both in front of and within the storm. The cell had an ominous greenish tinge to it, so I stopped on the outskirts of Kyogle to get a few pics.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3945.jpg)

I barely made it to town when the guster passed overhead, leaves and small branches were flying everywhere. I decided to head up to the lookout to try and get a pic but the rain hit and I was confined to the car. Could only snap a dodgy pic out of the windscreen.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_3950.jpg)


I quickly got out of there and headed to the servo to fuel up. When I got out of the car the the rain was almost blowing sideways and there was the telltale tinging of hail on the servo roof. There wasn't all that much though just a few isolated stones around 20 cent piece in size.
I waited for the main part of the cell to pass then put in another call to MB to see what was happening. The cell was now moving towards the Lismore area so I decided to call it a day. On the 45min drive home I was accompanied by numerous CGs, some quite close, for the whole way. Arriving home I was treated to a nice display of some anvil crawlers but I was too tired to bother setting up the tripod.
In all it was pretty good chase (6hrs worth) however with bit more experience I'll learn to position myself better and rely on a bit of gut instinct.

Cheers Jason 
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 22 November 2008, 08:23:56 AM
Nice pictures there. Not looking good for the SE at this stage, it was always going to be close but at this stage it appears as if the W'ly is winning. Dew points are falling which is not good at all. Interestingly though, just south of the border winds are out of the E/NE with dew points around 18C. Maybe, just maybe, later moisture will surge back inland around the gold coast to allow initiation just inland. There are storms further north but these look rather messy. dp's are excellent at 23C up there which is getting pretty moist.

Michael
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: d_rec on 22 November 2008, 09:03:10 AM
Been reading these forums for some time now and picking up tips and trying to understand some of the terms. I got some decent shots of the build up to 20/11/08 on the Gold Coast but after this shot I had to seek cover(not much at Budds Beach). With all the moisture about and today is quite warm on the coast I expect to see some build up in a couple of hours.
Can any one point to where I can learn about cape shear and half of these terms used here(preferably beginners level)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 22 November 2008, 09:25:30 AM
Hi, I would recommend reading through the following-

http://www.downunderchase.com/storminfo/stormguide/

I think this is an excellent overview of storm forecasting. On another note, looks like we have an organised storm in the making near Childers. Looks as in it will move to the N or NE and strengthen.
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 22 November 2008, 10:14:43 AM
Was sent these pics of the Blackwater storm (20/11) by an SES member - who had his own house damaged.

Trying to track down radar - Strikeone archives failed yesterday.

Been another very busy day - the storms yesterday afternoon and evening were very nice - will post some pics tomorrow. Jason- excellent report and pics :)

Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Steven on 22 November 2008, 10:25:14 AM
Did anybody save last night's radar? The Archive doesn't seem to have them available.

Spectacular shots there Rodney, betcha those lowerings were low enough to touch!

Today things are a bit of a disappointment, but we have a drying out from westerlies to blame for that. Shame too, because the sounding went nuts with -9 LI and 4000 CAPE!
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 22 November 2008, 11:01:49 AM
Ninemsn has a good selection of reader photos including some nice storm structure and lightning shots, mainly of the Brisbane area storms (though the last couple are from Gosford). Some of these may be from the storms earlier in the week.

http://images.ninemsn.com.au/resizer.aspx?url=http://news.ninemsn.com.au/img/2008/national/2111_cloud_lg_sp.jpg&width=310
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Adrian on 22 November 2008, 02:05:46 PM
Some fantastic shots- thanks for posting !!!

Cheers,
.adrian

eight, nine and ten
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 23 November 2008, 05:38:56 AM
I've put up a gallery of pics for Thursday 20th November 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20081120.html)

Two small storm cells passed over my place before the main event moved through.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1120mb08.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1120mb08.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1120mb15.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1120mb15.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1120mb29.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1120mb29.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1120mb36.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1120mb36.jpg)
Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: enak_12 on 26 November 2008, 05:28:19 AM
Just throwing up a couple of photos I took on the 20'th..

my view from Sawtell Headland looking north:
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/November%2020%202008/IMG_2849.jpg)

View looking south:
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/November%2020%202008/IMG_2867.jpg)

Title: RE: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 26 November 2008, 06:21:45 AM
I was reading about the tragic story of the loss of a four year old girl after the failure of an inflaitable lip on top of a weir near Blackwater in Central Queeensland and i was thinking, and this is pruely speculation, but I was thinking about whether or not the hailstorm that went through Blackwater only a few days before might have weakened the device that failed on top of the wier. It seems that the device was inflatable and no doubt would be storm proof but it still makes me think if the hailstones could have caused a structural weakness or further weakened an already fragile area? It sounds bizare to have an inflatable lip to hold back excess water anyway.
Title: Re: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 26 November 2008, 07:29:25 AM
Hey Jeff - I thought the same thing......

I managed to get hold of all the radar for the 20th November. There are other loops available but I won't add unless requested.

---> Newcastle 128km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/newcastle128.htm)

---> Grafton 128km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/grafton128.htm)

---> Gladstone 256km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/gladstone256.htm) (this shows the Blackwater storm at 0740UTC - max reflectivity 250km from the radar is pretty impressive)

---> Mt_Stapylton 64km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/mt_stapylton64.htm)

---> Mt_Stapylton 128km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/mt_stapylton128.htm)

---> Mt_Stapylton 256km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/mt_stapylton256.htm)

---> Mt_Stapylton Doppler radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081120/mt_stapylton_doppler128.htm)

Michael
Title: Re: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thompson on 28 November 2008, 04:01:04 AM
Footage on Youtube of the Blackwater storm, there is also some others in the related list

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WTSu_odfVY

Please be aware clicking on the following links involves swearing (turn down volume if you so wish) - it does show the hail however!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXOvimKXDtU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrl1klboMSw&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCT_PziUH14&feature=related

Edited by Jimmy due to video removed posted by Michael Thompson
Title: Re: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Chris. on 09 February 2009, 02:52:31 AM
Location; Warwick Qld 20th November 2008.


Hi, sorry this is late, I am new to the forum, but a few pics to show two storms here in Warwick on the 20th November 2008. The first turned out to be severe and there was a lot of damage around the town with roofs off and the like. The wind was unbelievable and almost cyclonic coming from all directions, or so it seemed. A little earlier, I asked the boss if I could get some pics around 3pm because of the strange skies, never seen anything like it. I had to get back to put vehicles away and about 3.45 the job was done and I got to take some pics from work. The first one showing what I thought was a tornado gave us all a bit of a scare and the second from the same spot looking over town. When I looked at the radar loops in this thread, does not look as if it was that bad at all, but for the amount of damage to property, I called it severe.

The second storm that came over us at 6.15pm looked as bad but was not as severe although it still caused a lot of damage to property. I would say that it probably caught most by surprise, thinking it was all over as the skies cleared up and then over it came.

Best regards,
Chris.


First two images show the strange skies taken around 3pm.
2.58pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4132-201108-web.jpg)
3.04pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4152-201108-web.jpg)


This pair I took back at work. The wind was unbelievable and could not keep the tripod steady for the second one.
3.51pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4177-201108-web.jpg)
3.58pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4187-201108-web.jpg)


I guessed this is the back end of it and the sky cleared.
6.16
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4190-201108-web.jpg)

Then this one, the CG'S were amazing in this but missed them concentrating on the front.
6.19pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img4207-240109-web.jpg)

(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4217-201108-web.jpg)
This second storm seemed to be heading straight for the back end of the first storm?
Would they have come together?
6.24pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4242-201108-web.jpg)
6.34pm
(http://app5.sellersourcebook.com/users/53446/img_4275-201108-web.jpg)

Title: Re: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 11 February 2009, 04:15:47 AM
Thanks for posting those shots Chris - looks pretty mean passing over your work!  A feature of many of the storms that day (20th Nov) was the strong winds associated with gust fronts.