Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Thomas on 19 October 2008, 09:51:21 PM
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We should be seeing a few storms around NSW for the next several days. For today (or tomorrow depending on where you are), GFS has LI's down to -7 around the northern SW slopes and adjacent areas. I do not believe this is realistic since low level moisture is quite poor with dp's currently only around 10C. Temps are expected to get up around 30C in places which should be enough for storms, just they will be quite high based by the look of things. Monday isn't too great at this stage either but I wouldn't rule out a nice storm or two on the ranges on the mid-north coast. I know it's a bit of a wild card, but I am still hoping something interesting can come off on Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears that shear will improve on Tuesday and hopefully there will be some nice dp's in place around the mid-north coast and northern rivers. Wednesday looks to be quite a dynamic day with a strong upper trough pushing though. Currently the timing doesn't look too good so we will just have to wait and see.
Michael
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Yes,im not convinced we'll see anything of great quality today given the moisture at various levels. CAPE values are expected to reach 2000 near the town of Young assuming dewpoints stay in the teens.I agree that this seems unrealistic given some single figure d'ps are likely today west of the ranges. Another concern is high moisture at 600-800mb,this could lead to embedded storms and a rather messy sky later in the afternoon. Windshear isnt near as bad as last weekend,but its still far from ideal. The seabreeze will probrably penetrate into Goulburn in the late afternoon, but im not sure if this will helps things or not. So im expecting some high based storms today,with a risk of embedded storms and a mid level cloud feast later in the afternoon. Some good lightning is possible.
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Sunday 19th October 20008
Target - Nowra
Prospects - Very Poor < -- please note this before being too critical of forecast
Expectations - Lightning after 8pm
Moisture has dried up quicker than a K Tel super mop. Although CAPE and LI figures look impressive for the SW slopes it will be hard to see much occurring. If anything does develop before sunset it has the potential for some nasty dry microbursts.
As the trough moves NE towards the coast so too does a wedge of moisture around 700-500mb, slightly better surface moisture may allow enough interaction to fire off some high based rubbish, initially on the ranges near Braidwood - Marulan and this should move east.
Despite rubbish storms (if any), good lightning photos and storm severity only have a weak correlation if any, so an opportunity may present it self for pictures. High bases and lack of rain will give nice bolt length and visibility, but I am going with best forecast scenario here.
Maverick factor on the coast is the SE wind change, at this stage so shallow I cannot see it being a great influence, but may lead to some cloud which may mar anything that does develop.
As often is the case the real show will be in Mudgee to the upper Hunter 18-24 hours later. ( Monday afternoon )
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I can't see there being much for S QLD on Tue/Wed with very little instability around, unless I'm missing something here.
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Hi Steven,
No you are not missing anything really. I slipped Qld in to the title as I would guess there is a chance of storms in SE Qld on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Latest GFS run actually looks a bit more promising in my opinion with a nice mid level jet (50knot max) nosing into the mid north coast and northern rivers areas. I expect some activity could spill over the border ranges into S Qld. Here's a forecast sounding from the Brisbane valley area-
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-27.65&lon=153.1&date=2008102106&gribdate=2008101900
Not much CAPE but I think the temp and dew point temp will be higher the 23/15 plotted.
Michael
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hi gang
what a crazy day.... targetted the sthrn highlands region .... total bust. It was ac tually the minor looking
line of instability that we drove under around Mossvale that would become the real stormline later on.
got a bit south of Marulan and realised nothing much was going to happen down that way so headed back to
Sydney. Weatherzone was showing that that minor instability line had taken off and several cells had fired up
over the Razorback area SW of Campbelltown and were heading NE'wards. By the time we got back to
Campbelltown area, the main cell was already over the "hills suburbs" of NW Syd. but a new cell was firing up
in its wake. We followed it up the Nthrn Rd via Penrith and nth to that fuel station by the roundabout
We sat there and awaited its arrival. some reasonable lightning (nothing wild) some heavy rain bursts, no hail.
Coming back down Richmond Rd to Blacktown we could see 2 other good looking cells to the SE. the radar
showing them to be on the coast ~ the Helensburg to Wollongong area. Very photogenic really nice updraughts
turned out an ok day after the wasted sthrn drive earlier on c'est la vie
Gosford turned out to be the "place to be" those 2 earlier cells went up through the Hawkesbury and hit Gosford
head on!!
Dave and Cindy
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These are the nice updrafts which intesified off the coast near woollongong , i was wishing the crappy cloud would get out of the way so i could see the bases , then i realised they were the bases , these storms grew from the hips up! they moved NE
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An afternoon of thunder in Galston as cells moved over and then continued to develop overhead. Got a photo of the storms off the Illawarra which looked nice but very high based.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-19-01jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-19-01jh.jpg)
The stuff over the hills was also high based but some nice lightning on the front end of the rain shafts. Photo of some sun lit mammatus on the back end. My photo is pretty similar to Nick's, excuse the double up
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-19-02jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-19-02jh.jpg)
Tomorrow looks mildly interesting. At this stage I like the Upper Hunter with the easterly surge inland providing a focus for storm development. See how it looks in the morning.
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Lots of rumblings here at Rydalmere as things passed to the west then north of here. Nothing really photogenic and no bolts seen (until about an hour ago, way off to the north on the horizon). On the radar some of the cells seemed to develop brief heavy rainfall at times. We had some rumbles from almost overhead but nothing to be seen.
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Hi guys,
I did put in a little observation session turned into a small chase. My main objective is to prove that what I was seeing was actually hailstones. After roaming around, it was not until I got to near Box Hill area / Oakville that pea sized hailstones fell. However, mostly heavy rain was observed. I was never really in the core at that time.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1019jd02.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1019jd02.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1019jd08.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1019jd08.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1019jd17.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1019jd17.jpg)
I didn't bother keeping up with the storm as it drifted beyond towards the Cental Coast hinterland.
All photos for 19th October 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/jd20081019.html)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Here's an article from the ABC News website. I haven't seen BOM so explicitly provide prior warning of supercells before. Chris put me onto this.
From http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/20/2395638.htm
Granite Belt urged to brace for 'supercell' storms
Weather forecasters have given people in the Granite Belt region of southern Queensland early warning of a potential 'supercell' developing tomorrow afternoon.
Supercells are severe thunderstorms that can produce strong winds, torrential rain and hail.
Senior forecaster Brian Rolston says there could be a couple of days of stormy weather heading up from northern New South Wales, and the southern border region is likely to cop the worst.
"If it's going to happen it will by the southern Darling Downs Tuesday afternoon, probably more Tuesday than Wednesday," he said.
"There'll be thunderstorms on Wednesday as well, but the potential will be greater on Tuesday it looks like."
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"Weather forecasters have given people in the Granite Belt region of southern Queensland early warning of a potential 'supercell' developing tomorrow afternoon."
Sounds exciting!
One thing's for sure, with a temperature of ~20C here at Ryde, there's no supercell potential here today. A few moments ago during lunch I could barely see some solid towers way off to the west and north west of North Ryde, somewhere over the Wollemi and beyond.
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Cell showing consistent and very solid reflectivity heading towards Bulahdelah at the moment, heading south east. Most probably a mesocyclone in there.
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Interesting cell passed through the Blue Mountains a short while ago which dropped some decent sized hail at Blackheath. Surprised it was not a warned cell.
Hail photo by Lindsay (http://www.blackheathweather.com/generalphotos/mtboycehail20-10-08a.jpg)
Not a bad sounding above the coastal crap - storms certainly needed to form above 900 hPa:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008102004sydney.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008102004sydney.png) Sydney 04z
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David, a similar storey has appeared in the Brisbane Times too 20/10/2008 under the heading "Supercells spark tornado fears", Brisbane times by Andrew Wight - 6.48 am.
I don't recall seeing storey headlines warning the public of the potential for supercell thunderstorms. The article takes it one step further by stating that supercells are expected to sweep into Brisbane tomorrow from the Darling Downs and Northern New South Wales bringing torrential rain and strong winds.
The article similar to the one posted above states that conditions will be right for formation of supercells and even states that there is the possibility of tornadoes.
However I have viewed the Bureau of Meteorology forecast for this region and there is a forecast of thunderstorms for the Granite Belt and region but I did not see any mention of large hail, damaging storms and or tornadoes or any specific warnings to the public.
There is also a general forecast for an east coast low forming off the New South Wales north or far north coast. That should be watched too and weather models currently show an east coast low off the far north coast or off south east Queensland for Wednesday.
On another matter, in addition to yesterday storm over far western and NW Sydney further storm activity has occurred close to Sydney but there has been no thunderstorm around Blacktown. A brief shower recently occurred but the southerly wind change has really taken hold now.
Harley Pearman
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i chased the cells which formed west of lithgow and headed east and dropped 3-4cm hail (report from michael bath) in blackheath.
i lost site of them as the high based storm passed over the boundary of cool moist south easterly cloud
pictured firest is the anvil in top of frame , in lower part you can see the edge of the low cloud and cells to my south
second is the storm when it was around bell
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Blackheath Storm - 20 Oct, 2008
Went for a chase on the Central Tablelands this afternoon. Based myself between Lithgow and Bathurst from around 3pm expecting a late starting day.
Some nice cells formed over the Wollemi NP however no chance of chasing them. I was hoping to catch a storm from near Bathurst back home. At around 4pm things started to shape up nicely. The dry’ish high based trough line was now closing in on Bathurst and low level moisture seemed to be increasing.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-01jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-01jh.jpg)
Sure enough some bases started to get their act together over Bathurst. I knew I had to head east quickly if I was to stay ahead of it.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-03jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-03jh.jpg)
Heading east it became obvious that the southern portion of the storm was becoming dominant. A lovely rippled base with nice towers above raced its way east gaining size and momentum the further it went.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-04jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-04jh.jpg)
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-07jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-07jh.jpg)
The cell was now moving to the right indicating good organisation and most likely some rotation. I realised I was coming across the Blue Mountains with no chance of keeping up with it. South of Lithgow I encountered 1cm hail from the main core. Once past the trees and now in Little Hartley I was astonished to see a RFD on the south-western edge heading just south of the main highway.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-08jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-08jh.jpg)
At this point I called off the chase and positioned myself for the RFD expecting some ok hail. Majority of the stones were 1-2cm with the odd bigger one amongst them.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-10jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-10jh.jpg)
The storm continued on through the Blue Mountains and seemed to gain some size (Blizz's pics confirm this). Whilst looking for larger hail I noticed the continuous roar coming from above. The structure was now pretty impressive from the back end however there was no way of catching it.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-12jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-10-20-12jh.jpg)
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Very nice James. That was where I was headed but I remained near Richmond and Kurrajong refusing and too lazy to budge until some interaction with moisture occurred. I was chatting to Nick on and off before I alerted him to watch that particular cell. But the speed it was travelling you need to be in Blackheath for a dead hit.
I took interest in the cell I had pass over Kurrajong area simply because of its crisp side anvil. You will see below that they were definitely too high!
The last picture shows my view of the Lithgow/Blackheath cell but it seemed to go downhill at this point onwards.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1020jd03.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1020jd03.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1020jd05.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1020jd05.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1020jd07.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1020jd07.jpg)
All photos for 20th October 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/jd20081020.html)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi Steven,
No you are not missing anything really. I slipped Qld in to the title as I would guess there is a chance of storms in SE Qld on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Latest GFS run actually looks a bit more promising in my opinion with a nice mid level jet (50knot max) nosing into the mid north coast and northern rivers areas. I expect some activity could spill over the border ranges into S Qld. Here's a forecast sounding from the Brisbane valley area-
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-27.65&lon=153.1&date=2008102106&gribdate=2008101900
Not much CAPE but I think the temp and dew point temp will be higher the 23/15 plotted.
Michael
Hello Michael T,
From what I've seen in the latest GFS, things look far more promising for SE QLD on Tue/Wed. Seems GFS can never make its mind up ha ha. (Considering it was a different story on the last run)
I'm still learning about Skew-T's, but its all Greek to me mate. lol
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I must say that I wrote yesterday off a little early before, that Blackheath storm was actually quite interesting. Some pretty solid hail there from such a small storm. The Sydney sounding is unusual, the coming off the tablelands must have really been elevated since the boundary layer was stable and strongly capped.
It seems that things are lining up quite nicely today. Mid-level flow should be around 30 to 40 knots over much of the northern rivers and S Qld. I expect NE winds should develop along the coast and into SE Qld. Therefore shear should be quite adequate for organised storms including supercells. Interestingly, the moisture has been quite poor in NE NSW and SE Qld with dp's struggling to get past 10C despite the onshore winds. Fortunately, in the 12Z Brisbane sounding dp's had increased about 5C to 15C. Also, last night dew points along the coast in the northern rivers were getting up around 16C. This is great news since it shows that the moisture is returning in time for today's storms. I suspect we should see some additional moistening tomorrow. Temps are forecast to approach 30C tomorrow away from the coast. Plotting on a forecast sounding for 30/16 gives around 2000 j/kg of CAPE and LI's around -7. In short if we see dp's in the mid teens or greater with good heating there should be plenty of instability. My guess for today is that we should see a couple of strong storms firing on the southerly change. I also think there's a good chance of a nice storm or two coming of the northern tablelands and border ranges. With the solid instability, steep mid level lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear I think that large hail will be quite probable with and any dominant storms.
Good luck to those heading out, hopefully today doesn't disappoint.
Michael
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Hi all,
With the upper trough approaching today and the upper levels cooling, I cannot see the 50-100km coastal strip remaining as dry as it has over the last 24hrs. I think we'll see the NE'ly pick up nicely late this morning as the (inland) trough deepens in response to the upper trough and drag moisture inland. The vis sat pic currently shows a convergence line sitting off the coast - i'm wondering if that is possibly where the moisture is (east of that line). Will watch it this morning and see what happens.
Shear is definitely better in the NR's this afternoon with 15-20knts from the N-NNE at the surface swinging around to 15-20knts from the WNW at 850mb, 20-30knts at 700mb and 40knts at 500mb. Concern is that the 850mb level is drying out (moreso over the NRs than SEQ) but given that 850mb is roughly 1450m ASL, even if the moisture was only 100mb deep (ie up to 900mb), it would be plenty on the coastal plains of the NR's and could give some beautifully structured storms, especially with the winds in the mid levels being half decent (first time this year). As for the hail, if something can tap into that coastal moisture, look out! As others have suggested, with quite cold upper level temperatures, very large hail is a definite possibility with any of the strong storms.
My current thinking is that storms will develop both on the S'ly change (near/off the coast) and along the ranges. As the storms on the ranges move east, I would suspect they will only get better the closer to the coast they get given the increasing moisture in the lower levels (and hence increasing energy). My play today will probably be the NR's. Although the shear is better down there, it also runs the risk of drying out in the low levels.
I think Brisbane will get a pretty decent show again tonight but probably not until later. But with the cool upper levels, it should be quite a show.
Macca
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Aside from the storms, there is a reasonable chance of some snow Wed evening on parts of the tablelands including southern parts of the Northern Tablelands and the Barrington Tops. Walcha area and even up to Guyra is possible according to the latest GFS. 850 temps will be around zero and with some decent moisture into the forecast period.
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a similar storey has appeared in the Brisbane Times too 20/10/2008 under the heading "Supercells spark tornado fears", Brisbane times by Andrew Wight - 6.48 am.
I don't recall seeing storey headlines warning the public of the potential for supercell thunderstorms. The article takes it one step further by stating that supercells are expected to sweep into Brisbane tomorrow from the Darling Downs and Northern New South Wales bringing torrential rain and strong winds.
The article similar to the one posted above states that conditions will be right for formation of supercells and even states that there is the possibility of tornadoes.
It's great to see the BoM slowly getting the correct terminology out there, although 'SUPER'cell is a potentially very tantalising term for the media and begets sensationalism!
Just on today, the mid-level lapse rates are around 7.6°C/km (GFS forecast sounding that is)-- sustained updrafts, supercells, that develop in relative isolation would be expected to produce some very large to giant hail.
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David,
Just on today, the mid-level lapse rates are around 7.6°C/km (GFS forecast sounding that is)-- sustained updrafts, supercells, that develop in relative isolation would be expected to produce some very large to giant hail.
I guess you could be correct but the storms would have to develop explosively and tap into the low level moisture. West winds at 850 and even lower are depleting moisture levels in the Northern Tablelands. This was the issue yesterday and the moisture in the Northern Rivers seem to be relatively lower than normal for this time of the year and with such systems. I bet there will be an LP or two if something can sustain themselves along a boundary.
The best conditions seem to favour the critical time around sunset.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Yet another day where I would have loved to have chase., but again university is in the way (couldnt chase yesterday either). I would have personally picked the Kempsey/Coffs Harbour region today, due to distance generally.. otherwise I would have like the Evans Head/Lismore region later this afternoon. At any rate, Kempsey and Coffs seem to be getting a hammering. Crescent head probably just got thwarted by large hail. Look forward to seeing pics/reports by people!
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Hi all,
Currently in the NR's (20km N of Ballina) heading S to somwhere...hehe. Massive cells to the south - HUGE overshoot on the storm just north of Coffs (although its flattened out over the last 5 minutes - actually its just gone nuts again - massive dome on the back end of it...I mean MASSIVE). Weaker stuff (visually and per radar) north and west of that stuff but I think that will intensify over the next few hours as it moves into the areas east of the ranges.
I think the Lismore corridor will play out nicely later on in the day (2 hours time) and I can see us (myself and AC) playing around down here for the rest of the afternoon and hopefully then following storms back up to Brisbane later this evening!
Macca (& AC)
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Had just noticed the storms there on the radar. The one off the coast of Nambucca looks nasty indeed. Also just got a picture message from Woolgoolga and spoke to someone there. Lots of golf ball sized hail with some larger. One schoolkid got knocked out apparently and at least one car window shattered. Also punched a hole in her outside table.
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Good luck Macca and Anthony.
I like the positioning of the cell NW of Grafton atm, but still early days
Anyway,
For people in the
NORTHERN RIVERS,
NORTHERN TABLELANDS and parts of the
MID NORTH COAST Forecast Districts.
Issued at 3:20 pm Tuesday, 21 October 2008.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce giant hailstones, (hail upto the size of Golf Balls), very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Armidale, Tenterfield, , Guyra, Casino, Kyogle, Yamba, Maclean, Woolgoolga, Sawtell and Dorrigo.
Golf Ball sized hail was reported from Woolgoolga just after 3pm, and large hail from near Crescent Head just after 2pm.
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New spotter report in and warning text amended. See below....
Issued at 4:05 pm Tuesday, 21 October 2008.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce giant hailstones, (hail larger than the size of Golf Balls), very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Armidale, Tenterfield, Guyra, Casino, Kyogle, Yamba, Maclean, Woolgoolga, Sawtell and Dorrigo.
Giant hail in the 6 to 7cm range, (Tennis Ball size), was reported from Woolgoolga, and large hail from near Crescent Head just after 2pm.
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Indeed, very nasty cell. BOM is classing it as very dangerous.
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Well, hopefully Ipswich is ready for this one. It's about to affect them. :|
Amberly just recorded a gust of 102km/h.
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A few very solid storms around today. Unfortunately, moisture didn't penetrate as far inland as I hope for along NE NEW. Despite this, that storm that formed north of Coffs Harbour really exploded and there were reports of 6 to 7cm hail according to the BoM. It looked quite impressive offsore for quite some time to. Other than this, that storm in SE Qld put on a real show. The Amberly Obs are very interesting, prior to the storm the dp increased to 16C and the wind was gusting to 40km/hr. Then the downdraft kicked in giving winds to 100km/hr. I have seen a picture of the structure which really look amazing. Ipswich looked like the place to be, hopefully there is not too much damage.
Edit: Things are by no means over, there is another storm quickly taking shape to the west of the Ipswich storm which has now died. Looks in a nice position for a while but will probably died nearing the coast. Also, storms are forming along the S'ly change in NSW.
Michael
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Michael,
Yes the Woolgoolga storm would have been quite impressive to see given it would have had better access to moisture. Apparently only a few parts of very close to the coast got the very large hailstones and some areas of Woolgoolga the golf balls. Did it mostly just explode closer to the coast?
The Ipswich storm held good structure for a few frames and then rapidly became outflow dominant again due to the higher bases. Nice to see this afternoon on radar - can't wait to see the pictures from those who chased.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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The Woolgoolga storm was obviously quite localised. As the first call I had about it indicated mostly golf ball size with the occasional larger chunk, this was about 4 blocks south of the town centre. Her kids were the ones who reported one kid being knocked out by a larger piece near the high school, which is to the NW of the middle of town, and seeing a car lose it's windscreen (and subsequently crash) on the school bus ride home.
I then spoke to my parents who only live about 4 blocks SW (500m on google earth) of the first person, and they only had pea size hail and didn't realise it had been anywhere as severe in town as it was.
Unfortunately the hail photos received via MMS while supposedly in 640*480 aren't of good enough quality to be worth posting or viewing at any more than thumbnail size.
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A severe thunderstorm Warning - SE Queensland has been issued for a particular storm that has gathered strength at 6.32 PM for:-
Moreton Bay and
Sunshine Coast.
A severe thunderstorm was detected near Caboolture and Wamuran and moving NE. Expected to reach Caloundra and area SW of Caloundra and Beerwah by 7.05 pm and Maroochydore waters off Caloundra and waters of Maroochydore by 7.35 pm.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAILSTONES ARE LIKELY.
The current radar images 7.35 PM show an intense core but over rural areas but headed in the direction of these urban areas.
Harley Pearman
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Popped out to the shop to have a look and we're in the firing line tonight, I noticed the overshooting tops in the sunset, it looked quite spectacular. Pity the lightning isn't all that frequent (about 1 every 5-10 secs).
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Report from the hailstorm yesterday the 20th October that went through the Blackheath area of the Blue Mountains. By the way, excellent report and photos from James and Nick, , yes , it was moving rapidly , about 60 kms an hour based on the radar reflectivities. I was in the area bushwalking watching some decent updrafts going up on the Grose valley side of the tableland. Around 5 pm I could see some solid vertical development taking off north of Blackheath on the Hartley side of the tableland, so I headed off up the highway when a fabulous rain free base greeted me coming towards the tableland just after Mt Boyce. So I stopped at Browntown oval to get a good view of the boiling updraft of the cell and its wonderfully rippled base.
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storm%20Season%2008-09/Blackheathhailstorm20-10-08-07.jpg)
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storm%20Season%2008-09/Blackheathhailstorm20-10-08-02.jpg)
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storm%20Season%2008-09/Blackheathhailstorm20-10-08-03.jpg)
Rain free base moving overhead just before the hail hit with a 5 minute volley before the rain cut in and intensified as it crossed the highway. This was the northern end of the hail as the hail was heavier to the south, size of the hail was mostly 1 to 2cm up to 3.5 cm sporadically. Certainly a very impressive storm to finish off the day,
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storm%20Season%2008-09/Blackheathhailstorm20-10-08-04.jpg)
Cheers, Con.
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Hail 'bombs' rip through east coast
News story on the Coffs Harbour/Woolgoolga storms - with video. Actually wouldn't bother watching the video as it takes ages to load and doesn't show anything really interesting except people holding golf ball size hail.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=650823
Hailstones as large as tennis balls pelted the nation's east coast this afternoon after storms rolled in carrying winds of up to 100km/h.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reported hailstones measuring 7cm were seen in Woolgoolga, NSW, around 3pm (AEDT), while flash storms laid into much of south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales.
A number of ninemsn readers wrote in to tell of their close encounters with the monster hailstones, which varied from marble-size to as big as tennis balls.
"It looked like there were bombs in the swimming pool — it was crazy," Ipswich resident Nathan Pamenter told ninemsn.
"There was a thunderous roar on my roof and could see [the hail] coming down the street like a snowstorm. I've never seen a storm like it."
The BOM said a 100km/h wind was recorded at nearby Amberley shortly before 5pm (AEST).
Vanessa Binnington was caught by surprise at Karana Downs, west of Brisbane, despite being aware of the storm warning.
"One minute the storm was just rumbling, then the hail hit," she said.
"It got so intense. I didn't even have time to get out and move the car."
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Continuing on from the previous post with a photo of the hail,
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storm%20Season%2008-09/Blackheathhailstorm20-10-08-hh.jpg)
and some nice knuckles in the updraft with the sun illuminated the hailshaft as the storm headed east,
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storm%20Season%2008-09/Blackheath12.jpg)
Cheers again, Con.
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These pictures were forwarded from Martha at the Guyra Argus newspaper. A lot of marble sized hail fell in a thunderstorm just before 3pm on 21st Oct.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga02.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga02.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga03.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga03.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga04.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga04.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga05.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga05.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga06.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga06.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga07.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga07.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021ga08.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021ga08.jpg)
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21 October 2008
Chased yesterday doing a loop down to Grafton via the Summerland Way then back via the Pacific Highway, meeting up with Rodney at Maclean. Fast moving cells are difficult to chase !
I noticed the early convection appeared to form with the accas - or above the inversion evident on the Brisbane sounding. Most of the cells in the Northern Rivers were high based but had very strong features from the mid to upper levels.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008102100brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008102100brisbane.png)
A couple of pics of the Woolgoolga / Coffs Harbour area storm tops - the ones that produced the large hail. This first pic is when the storm was just west of Coffs Harbour (02.50UTC on radar)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb02.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb02.jpg) 1.48pm
Two main cells on radar now:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb04.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb04.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb05.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb05.jpg) 2.45pm
Later on in Grafton. This storm put out the most CGs I saw all day:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb14.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb14.jpg) 4.20pm
A traffic mess in town ensured I could not get better views of the storm. The outflow from it was violent:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb15.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb15.jpg) 4.30pm
Same storm now offshore (SE of Yamba):
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb22.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb22.jpg) 4.55pm
Strong looking storm located between Ballina and Evans Head:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb26.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb26.jpg) 5.40pm
This storm to my north dropped hail in parts of Lismore and my place at McLeans Ridges. Hail was only up to 1cm diameter, but 17mm fell.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb35.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb35.jpg) 6.25pm
Same storm cluster now offshore from Broadwater:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1021mb40.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1021mb40.jpg) 7.00pm
All photos for 21 October (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20081021.html)
---> Grafton radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081021/grafton128.htm)
---> Brisbane radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081021/mt_stapylton128.htm)
Regards, Michael
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From Weatherzone News this morning
Snow has been falling on the Blue Mountains this morning as a burst of cold, unstable southerly winds surge across the region.
There has been a mix of snow flakes, sleet, hail and thunder. The snow even became heavy for a time in the Katoomba area.
It is a rare event for the region. Snow in October has been reported about five times in the last 50 years.
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It appears the person in the attached photo is standing in the hail as it was falling. It was found on the Coffs Coast Advocate website but not sure where in the Coffs Harbour region it was taken.
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Michael, looking at the radar now it doesn't look like you are having to chase the storm, it's right over you! Nicve and black on the Brisbane radar as well.
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We just had some decent sized hail go over Goonellabah about 30 minutes ago.
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Very damaging cell over Byron Bay right now.
It does appear to have some sort of 'v-notch' on the latest scan??
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Yeah I was thinking it looked a little like a Hook Echo, but I'm no expert.
Interesting.
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Nice mesocyclone couplet, right on the forward flank of the storm, appeared to go right right over Byron Bay. Probably a stout wind shift together with all the hail and rain would be all that one would notice on the ground.
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It it is a messy looking HP storm on radar from what I see guys; cant see any well developed v-notch and no hook. In saying that, given those base reflectivities it almost certainly is a dangerous storm producing very large giant hail and damaging winds.
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Been heaps of hail from SW of Lismore to Byron Bay - mostly up to 2cm diameter, but some bigger stuff around including at Lismore Heights where some isolated golf ball + managed to hit my wife's car and dent it. 2-3cm stones at my place at McLeans Ridges. The structure of the storm was pretty impressive - will put some pics up soon.
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i am in Inverell and a very energetic storm is on the way over the ridge right now
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this morning i made my way to Mt Lambie near Lithgow , melting snow was still about katoomba , blackheath and patchy 1cm depth around Mt Lambie , While i was there a CB dumped a heavy snow fall for about 20 mins at about 9am
my pic is at this link , also for your interest a few readers pix are also here from the hailstorms up north including some big ones at the orara valley
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/2008/10/22/1224351311360.html
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Nice thong in the gallery there, Nick. Well done! :) If it's not snowing, it's hailing in that part of the country...
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Some pics for this afternoon's chase. I was initially at Casino, then moved east of there as the hailstorm moved through. The most hail was at Clovass but there's a track of hail all the way to Byron Bay!
Storm really took off at this point - looking SSW from Casino:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb01.jpg) 12.30 EDT
Guster pics east of Casino - sure was close to the ground:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb17.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb17.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb18.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb18.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb25.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb25.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb35.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb35.jpg)
Then a stack of hail - only up to 2cm at this location:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb41.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb41.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb44.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb44.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1022mb50.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1022mb50.jpg)
All photos for 22nd October 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20081022.html)
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Hi guys,
MB: WOW! at those structure shots! My god what a beast! I guess a few of the storms out there today would have amazing structure. The storm that hit Byron Bay earlier on was well into the heavy end of the precip spectrum (on WZ radar) so I would believe large hail was abounds everywhere out there in those storms.
Was there much in the way of CG on the front edge or anvil? Seemed pretty darn active on the LT.
Sure has been an interesting day for the east coast NSW / south east QLD!
Cant wait to see everyone's reports and photos as they come in!
Take care,
Shauno
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I have found NBN TV has video of it's news items online.
This is from yesterday's storm:
http://www.nbntv.com.au/index.php/2008/10/22/hail-damage-bananas-and-blueberries/
Unluckily nothing (yet) on the Northern Rivers section about today's storms.
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A great set of photos of a storm in far west Brisbane 21/10/2008 can be found at:-
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/photogallery/2008/10/21/1224351246724.html
Apparently looking at the storey attached, it produced hail up to golf ball size around North Ipswich and west of Brisbane at Boonah with smaller hail at Enoggera and Newmarket to the north.
Additionally 15,000 homes were blacked at around this area and another 4,000 homes blacked out north of the city and Caboolture and Redcliffe. Also it is reported that 11,300 lightning strikes occurred.
Sydney 22/10/2008:
The 3 pm temperature reading was 14C in Sydney (City) 15C where I live with 17C at Penrith. In addition to some early snowfall at Katoomba, it was more akin to a cold winters day than what should be expected of mid spring. Considering it was 33C last Sunday, it is a noticeable drop.
At Auburn where I work, two afternoon shower cells (From cold weather cumulonimbus clouds) crossed the suburb, both bringing a burst of heavy rain accompanied by sudden cold squally southerly winds. There was no hail or thunder but the winds during both events were quite significant.
Harley Pearman
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It has been snowing already this afternoon at Guyra. The attached pic was emailed by Martha from the Guyra Argus newspaper. Looks like more would be falling there now.
The two other attachments are the photos taken 21st Oct in the Upper Orara Valley by Deborah Kay (added here in case they are removed from the SMH website over time)
That is some massive falling in the TV news item Richary - I saw it on NBN here this evening. Just a pity the giant hail footage is low quality mobile phone video.
Shauno - didn't see all that many CGs though there were a couple of close ones. There was a definite roar as the hail got close.
Radar for today's hailstorm:
---> Grafton radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081021/grafton128-2.htm)
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Harley - according to the TV news the coldest October day for 30 years. Had to drill some metalwork out for a job tomorrow so came home to do it in the garage as outside in the work carpark with the power drill didn't seem the best option this afternoon! Hope it calms down tomorrow, will be on top of one of the Harbour Bridge pylons doing an install. Roll on the forecast warmer weekend (with a chance of a storm on Sunday night).
Another one from last night where a house caught fire.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lightning-sparks-house-fire/2008/10/22/1224351318578.html
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Temperatures seem to be dropping dramatically with the SW change; 13.4 at Brisbane, 12.1 at Toowoomba, 9.9 at Warwick etc.
Combine this with the blustery gale, it will only make it feel colder.
Brilliant shots Michael btw.
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I like the image attached here by Kym Collins, of Samford (just NW of Brisbane on 21st Oct) looking towards Jolly's Lookout to the south.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Fantastic image, Jimmy by the contributor. Looks quite nasty and somewhat foreboding! May I ask, were there supercells around the Bryon Bay area or were they just severe warned thunderstorms?
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Mike, that was from the previous day 21st October in the Brisbane area - from the slide show Harley posted.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Mike - the storm that passed through Lismore and Byron Bay yesterday (22nd) would have been supercellular for some of its track. The same cell can be identified on radar for at least 8 hours (check loop previous forum page).
Article from the Northern Star newspaper (http://www.northernstar.com.au/story/2008/10/23/northern-rivers-hit-again-by-hailstorm/) today
Northern Rivers hit again by hailstorm
Jamie Brown 23rd October 2008
A BLIZZARD of flying hail and roaring wind so loud it masked the sound of a falling tree marked yesterday’s arrival of the storm season.
Scenes of destruction were most obvious just south of Byron Bay, at Suffolk Park, where stripped vegetation littered the ground and the smell of eucalypt and pine wafted in the air.
According to one Tamarind Drive resident, the 10-minute storm was so intense he never heard the sound of a 15-year-old spotted gum as it smashed through his house. “I was on the veranda only a few metres away from where the tree crashed into my house, yet I never head a thing above the roar of hail on my roof,” he said.
Ironically, the tree was due for removal tomorrow.
At the nearby Pinehaven Community Aged Care Centre, hail blocked gutters and drains and heavy rain afterwards leaked through light fixtures in the ceiling.
Acting director of care, Jenny Kinkead, said she had never seen anything like it before.
In Juliet Doty’s Suffolk Park garden all that remained of her hard work were the scent of crushed basil, mint and rosemary.
Her tomatoes and paw-paws were stripped bare and large drifts of hail were piled up against her fence a full three hours after the event.
Juliet’s husband Paul was playing golf nearby and had to run for cover as the storm hit, leaving himself and his golfing mates battered and bruised.
Juliet’s neighbour, Marc Browne, said he had never seen so much hail in so short a time.
“It was unbelievable,” he said. “You couldn’t hear yourself think.”
Country Energy linesman Bruce Grosse, based at Ewingsdale, said the storm knocked out power to most of Suffolk Park as high winds took their toll on equipment.
“We were up until 2am on Tuesday night after storms came through our area, and it looks like we’ll be up late again tonight,” he said.
“There’s nothing we can do. It’s just nature.”
McLeans Ridges storm chaser Michael Bath said a cold pool of air in the upper atmosphere and opposing surface winds created ripe conditions for the widespread thunderstorms.
But even the seasoned weatherman, who now works as an early warning manager for an online service, said he was surprised by the duration of yesterday’s wild storms.
What began as billowing cumulous about 11.30am south of Casino was still creating angry conditions well east of Moreton Island nine hours later.
Noel McAviney, of the Byron Bay SES, said they responded to 34 calls after the hailstorm.
Most were from people with broken skylights.
Tabulam, Lismore and Banora Point SES were called to assist with their operations.
Yesterday’s storm was so intense it prompted SES volunteers working to clear a leaking roof at Pinehaven Aged Care Centre to recall a storm in the early 1980s that literally blanketed Brunswick Heads with hail.
“That storm went on for hours and hours,” recalled one volunteer.
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Thanks for that. Interesting article, Michael. So are experienced chasers now known in the publics eye as 'seasoned weathermen' from now on? :)
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No way to know what they will call you or report LOL. The guy that wrote that piece at least knows a fair bit of weather as I've been informing him over the years.
The satellite sequence from yesterday is quite nice. I haven't put one up from the day before as two critical images were missing from the afternoon.
---> VIS satpic loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/20081021/satellite_loop_20081021.htm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/20081021/200810220133.jpg)
This report from ABC News (http://www.abc.net.au/news/)
Hail storm clean-up underway
Emergency crews on the New South Wales far north coast are busy cleaning up the aftermath of yesterday's severe hail storm.
Reports of hail came from Casino and Lismore, across the coast to Byron Bay and north to Murwillumbah.
Worst hit was Suffolk Park, with hail the size of golf balls and trees falling through roofs and onto fences and cars.
The deputy region controller for the State Emergency Service (SES), Darren Winkler, says the SES has been inundated with calls for help.
"In total we've had 70 requests for assistance. At 12 o'clock last night we still had 30 that had been 'uncompleted', so we'll get to them today. We'll be talking with bureau today but we don't think we'll get any storms this afternoon," he said.
Saint Helena residents says the storm is the worst they have seen in 40 years.
Jan from Saint Helena says her garden is destroyed and windows were broken everywhere.
"There were five of us in a row that have lost windows ... lucky I had a son down here with me for the day and we've boarded the windows all up and at least kept any rain out, but the driveway - it's just pitted ... from the ice, it's nearly pressure cleaned it for me," she said.
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Some more video without commentary of the Brisbane storms and hail (nice lightning shots) and the snow in the Blue Mountains.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7683876.stm
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Here some of the aftermath in Suffolk Park, I was in Ballina at the time, got home to green roads, and the smell of eucalyptus in the air.
Been finding Videos on YouTube that people have shot:
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=2F665495C4759A99
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A great set of photos of a storm in far west Brisbane 21/10/2008 can be found at:-
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/photogallery/2008/10/21/1224351246724.html
Thats a great link Harley - the structure on that Bris storm looks to have been awesome from those pics. Would love to see some high res photos of that striated beast!
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Well my Internets been out of action for a week so I'm adding some pics late. The first two are from the 21'st of October, 2.5 cm hail was the biggest it got at my house but I must have only just missed the big stuff considering the Orara Valley is iterally just over the mountain west of me! Was crazy to find out all this happened as without the internet I wasn't following the forecasts and on the day itself the storms looked pretty plain and messy from my perspective see second photo.
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/October%2021%202008/IMG_2592.jpg)
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/October%2021%202008/DSC00035.jpg)
These next photos are from the 22'nd of October..
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/October%2022%202008/DSC00046.jpg)
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/October%2022%202008/DSC00048.jpg)
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Hi all,
A few images from my last two chases are now up on my gallery.
First link is to the images of the guster from Byron Bay on 21st October...
http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery2/v/Season+08/211008/
Will post the other in the relevant thread.
Macca
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Fantastic images, Macca. You guys have some fabulous vantage points and it really does enhance the photos of the storms. Damned if I can find a location here with such foreground and background stuff - am sick of palms as subjects! Even the structure of your storms is dramatic, low based and gnarly!
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Gyday all , here are a few pics from the widespread hail storms on the 22nd. These were taken a few kilometers east of Lismore at my workplace.A few random stones up to 2.5cm but mostly smaller and heaps of it.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081022rwa.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081022rwb.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081022rwc.jpg)