Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 13 March 2010, 10:49:06 AM

Title: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 13 March 2010, 10:49:06 AM
There appears to be a new threat heading for the East Coast of QLD, with 2 tropical storm systems approaching over the next 3- 4 days. With the recent rain in QLD and combined dam levels at 96% and rising, it could pose a new flood threat for us. Worth while monitoring these two.

BOM have issued a moderate chance of a cyclone forming on Sunday and Monday at this stage.

Col
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Paul D on 14 March 2010, 04:38:44 AM
Latest BOM mean sea level pressure chart shows a newly formed cyclone "Ului"

PD
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 15 March 2010, 01:27:16 AM
Ului has intensified last night into a Cat.4 storm and is approx. 266 kilometers (162.4Deg E) from entering Australian waters (that is 160 deg East)

Latest update is

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 LOCATED NEAR 13.0 SOUTH 162.4
EAST AT 131800 UTC.  
POSITION FAIR.  
REPEAT POSITION 13.0S 162.4E AT 131800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 15 March 2010, 10:16:18 AM
Wow this cyclone is huge and so is the 1 behind it. Does anyone think it may have potential to hit as far south as Byron Bay? Even the tail?

Antonio.
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 15 March 2010, 10:18:27 AM
and here is a second image showing both of the cyclones. they look scary
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 16 March 2010, 11:25:51 AM
Man im kinda freaked out by the satellite!!! Its still moving WSW to WNW as usual!! Looks like it going back to category 5 again tomorrow.

GASP is now on board for this 900hpa TC Ului to slam on Townsville direct hit!! Im so nervous......

PS: This thread need to update the topic by adding 'Severe' due to current category of 4!
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 17 March 2010, 08:36:02 AM
Cyclone Thomas that John was mentioning had an impact on Fiji last night. Reports indicate that it was the worst storm to hit Fiji in a decade.

I also agree with you John, JTWC have been on the ball with Ului, where as BOM has not made a firm stance, which is understandably hard to do with so much involved and so many possibilities. BOMS latest reports state:

It is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track tonight, which it
should maintain until later in the week. Its longer term forecast track is still
uncertain but at this stage the most likely scenario is for Severe Tropical Ului
to turn in a more west to southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland
coast during Friday and over the weekend.

WZ have Ului making possible landfall on Sunday, they state:

Sunday 22:00 EDT

Tropical Cyclone Ului may cross the coast or move south along the coast, generating rain and gales south of the tropics and into northeast NSW. A trough will bring a cooler change to NSW. A high will keep most of inland NSW, VIC, TAS and SA dry in gusty southeasterlies.


Their Synoptics for sunday as posted

It is a case of watching and seeing at this stage.



Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 18 March 2010, 01:04:07 PM
The latest track map and advice from BOM, suggests that maybe over the weekend there is a possibility that Ului will cross the coast.

One of the concerns is the from looking at the accumulated precipitation forecasts.The 18Z /120 hr run ( 5 day)shows a bulls eye of 450 mm of rain for the next 5 days north of Rockhampton, the rest of the 120 hr run shows around 100 mm for Brisbane and south of here. The 180 hr run is of interest as well for  Brisbane.  The areas surrounding Brisbane have approx 275 mm totals and South of Bunderberg 425 mm. If the  models hold true, then there is a very high chance of severe flooding down the Capricornia Coast, Brisbane  and Northern NSW
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 18 March 2010, 01:53:18 PM
Well Ului has made a nice Thread on Weatherzone forums so far 150 Pages oh my goodness it hasent even hit us yet. Below is the accumulated precipitation that has now vhaged to 3 main cores with 300+mm near Ballina/ Byron. 2nd image down shows the current Cyclones position and Proposed track ( except i added more range of arrows :-) and the 3rd one down is the 850MB shear map. Looks like a direct hit to central QLD by near 10pm Sunday?.

Antonio
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 19 March 2010, 02:42:18 AM
Cant believe in my eyes this morning its heading for me to Townsville!!!
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 19 March 2010, 03:30:28 AM
Yes i will get my camera batteries charged and ready for this monster. I am nervous now and i feel sorry for my car :(

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=townsville (http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=townsville)

Interesting wind speed and direction forecasted!?
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 19 March 2010, 09:21:04 AM
JCU is now under red alert!

Quote
The following Cyclone Advice has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Schools and Faculties should check their areas of responsibility and secure any loose items.
Staff and students are advised to review their personal cyclone preparations. Information and advice is available on the JCU Emergency Website and the Bureau of Meteorology site.
Staff and students may obtain updated information at Bureau of Metrology Cyclone Information site.
Any persons planning to travel in the affected areas should check latest Cyclone Information prior to commencing travel.
A further email will be sent if and when a Cyclone Watch is issued.

IDQP0005

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this

warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane

Issued at 10:56am EST on Thursday the 18th of March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon.

At 10:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be

1140 kilometres northeast of Mackay and

1310 kilometres east of Cairns and

moving south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is expected to remain about the same strength.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to begin moving in a south-westerly
direction tonight towards the Queensland coast.

On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the
coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay. However, it is important to
understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.

DAMAGING winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon during Saturday as
the cyclone approaches the coast.
The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast
and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 157.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hecto Pascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Thursday 18 March.

Ian B Brooks | Manager Security and Parking, Facilities Management Office
Division of Finance and Resource Planning
James Cook University, Angus Smith Drive, Douglas, QLD 4811
JCU CRICOS Provider Code: 00117J

Its currently light winds with sprinkles so its the 'calm before the storm'! The track map showing it still heading for Townsville so note that the intensity may upgrade to category 4 sometime that i wouldnt be surprised!
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 19 March 2010, 02:55:44 PM
Just did some shopping with Kathyrn this evening at Stockland Woolies. Its getting more packed when i got there and people are well focused to shop at Woolies than other retailers when are open at the same time.

I also refill too.

It getting very windy here now, i think The Strand probably gale wise!!
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Peter J on 20 March 2010, 03:23:46 AM
Hi all,

Everytime I look at the satpic of this beast, it looks like it is losing its strength, and getting weaker. The eye has now disappeared and even though it is listed as severe cat 3, it looks more like a cat1 or cat2. I don't think this is going to be anywhere near as bad when it hits the coast over the weekend.

Big Pete
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 20 March 2010, 10:39:55 AM
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=coralsea&loop=yes&images=8&allday=&start=&stop= (http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=coralsea&loop=yes&images=8&allday=&start=&stop=)

Looks interesting for our area. Hamilton Ap all flights got cancelled. Wont be surprised Proserpine and Bowen will be next and then Townsville tomorrow.
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 20 March 2010, 12:21:58 PM
IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:15pm EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr, extending to
adjacent inland parts.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
850 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1010 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.
 
The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone tonight and Saturday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People between Ayr and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours.
People between Cardwell and Ayr and adjacent inland parts should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 156.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au (http://www.bom.gov.au) or call 1300 659 212.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml)

Still staying as category 2 for landfall. Not good enough for the field trip tomorrow @ Giru!??
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 21 March 2010, 10:12:05 AM
Ului is on course to make landfall some time tomorrow, Sunday21/03/10. Currently a cat 2 System, there is a slight chance that it will build back to a cat.3 before crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina. I thought it was going to be slightly further south when I first starting observing the storm. It still will carry a bit of a punch when it hits, so it is important to keep up to date with emergency warnings.


Latest Tech bulletin states

REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 hours with LLCC now
under deep convection.

Dvorak analysis gave an ambiguous curbed band of 0.9 wrap yielding DT of 3.5.
MET of 4.0 with PAT of 3.5. Hence FT/CI = 3.5.

AMSU estimates suggest higher wind speeds are possible. Surface observations a
large area of storm force winds.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track continuing west southwest
today and crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina early on Sunday morning,
steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than
normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is based on some development continuing, into weak category 3
near landfall. However models do not suggest further intensification so some
doubt remains on the system's reponse to shear.



Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 21 March 2010, 12:46:22 PM
Ului has now re intensified to CAT3, warning signals are now being used in the broadcast. The situation as you can understand is now serious. Latest update.


Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to
Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont are requested to USE the
Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54pm EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont.

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
280 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
495 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely
in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone
is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 170 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this
evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the normal high tide
mark overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the
foreshore.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters
Towers and Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to
shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.9 degrees South 151.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Saturday 20 March.


Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Mathew Townsend on 21 March 2010, 03:28:06 PM
Yes i know John, i told alot of people about it here at college!! People need to understand and learn how bad it is, they say it like a normal everyday living life!!

Now he is going to be a buster 205km/hr gusts!!

Remarks:

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 200 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts during Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the highest tide of the year overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Peter J on 21 March 2010, 03:33:05 PM

From the forecast track, looks like it could hit Prosepine head on...

Take care all up that way, this beast has gotten nastier by the minute!

Big Pete
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 21 March 2010, 03:38:06 PM
As John pointed out, there is a high probability of a large tidal surge, to add to that, currently the wave rider Bouy at Bailey Islet, Mackay have  registered a Hmax height of 7.5 meter waves.
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 22 March 2010, 01:52:10 AM
The Wave rider Buoy at Bailey Islet, Mackay registered a 9.5 meter Hmax during the peak of the storm with a 5.7 meter Hsig. At this stage I have not heard of the damage reports as is still probably pretty dangerous to survey, but over the next couple of hours we should start receiving the reports.

Currently, after crossing the coast Ului is still making her way inland as a Cat 2 cyclone.

Update from BOM this morning.

At 5:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
45 kilometres south southwest of Bowen and
135 kilometres northwest of Mackay and
moving west southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.

At 6:00 am EST the cyclone is estimated to be
15 kilometres north northwest of Collinsville and
82 kilometres west of Proserpine.

The centre Tropical Cyclone Ului is currently just west of Collinsville, and
continuing to move further inland. The cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken
later this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 155 km/hr are expected to continue affecting the
coastal and island communities between Bowen and Seaforth for the next hour or
so.

DAMAGING winds are expected in areas between Ayr and Sarina and the adjacent
inland for the next few hours, then gradually ease during the afternoon.
    
Title: Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
Post by: Paul D on 23 March 2010, 05:26:27 AM
It seams Ului dissipated fairly quickly after crossing the coast.
 
Although as of 4:40 am 22-03-2010 BOM still have a Severe Weather Warning in QLD for heavy rainfall and flooding
for the Central Coast, Capricornia district and for the Central Highlands and Central West north of a line from Taroom to Longreach. 

BOM has released data from a trial of the new Emerald Radar earlier than scheduled due to TC Ului
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR723.loop.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR723.loop.shtml)

Cheers
Paul

Last Ex TC Ului track map from BOM -