Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Thompson on 07 December 2007, 03:56:22 PM
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NSW 7th to 9th December 2007 ( Forecast )
I think it is time for some discussion about the weekend prospects. I for one are very keen. At this stage the Mudgee to Dunedoo corridor along the Black Stump way and onto the Golden Hwy looks good over the weekend, but as always this may change with the last forecast before hitting the road.
GFS has been rather up and down, but has been consistently holding onto Saturday and Sunday as days to watch.
It has been a long time since I have seen CAPE values consistently over 3000 for such a large area.
The only worry I have is that the CAPE values have been modeled on 21C dew points, that is NOT going happen until rain falls. I think the TWC model is much more realistic in regard to dewpoint being closer to 16C.
Anyway it will still be an interesting weekend, wind shear will be much better than it has been of late. I think surface winds may be better than models indicate so shear could be interesting.
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Hi Michael,
I too am quite interested in this coming weekend. So much so that I'm leaving Brisbane tomorrow evening and starting my trek south.
I don't have too much to add apart from a comment about the DP's. I'm a little skeptical about the 21C DP's but I think by Saturday we'll see well mixed DP's in the 18-19C range as far S as central NSW. DP's over southern QLD today have held in the 17-19C range even in the more elvated regions of Oakey, Toowoomba and Warwick. These DP's held throughout the day indicating they are quite well mixed (ie not drying out much during the peak heating period of the day). Of interest was the DP at Dalby this afternoon. At 1pm it was 30/19. By 3pm, the temperature had dropped to 29C but the DP had increased to 21C. This mixed out in the few hours after this but has been sitting in the 19-20C range since. This is quite encouraging as this moist air will advect southwards over the next 36hrs.
Shear is another interesting factor on Saturday (and Sunday). GFS is doing some strange things that we don't see much of here in Australia...a low level jet!! Sure its *only* 20-25knts but that is pretty good from where I sit. Not only do we have one, but it is from the N (as opposed to the usual NW). Sitting over the top of this is a moderate mid level jet with 700mb and 500mb winds getting into the 30-35knt range and both of these are from the NW or WNW. And then up to we have a very tidy 80-90knt jet nosing into the area of interest.
Two concerns for me. The first being the cap. Forecast soundings are indicating it could be quite strong with convective temps currently needing to push up to 33-34C to get things kicking. The other concern is cloud. There is quite a bit of this over SA and up into the NT. GFS picks this up with hefty 500mb RH's currently mirroring this cloud band. During tomorrow, this moves rapidly eastwards and clears most of NSW by later tomorrow night. However, GFS has another burst of mid level RH (ie cloud) pushing down into NSW on Saturday. It looks a little strange (possibly an anomoly) however time will tell.
If it was Friday night and these models were for tomorrow...I'd be heading a little further W than Michael and probably sit somewhere like Trangie or even Nyngan.
I have no doubt we will all be refining our forecasts over the next 24hrs and although Michael and I have already gone into a bit of detail, I encourage others to post their thoughts on this system. You may only be able to chase locally near where you live but if you think it is a chance of a storm or two, post your thoughts - nothing like some good discussion before a decent storm outbreak.
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Today ( Friday ) and CAPE values just west of Nowra are well.................as good as get on the plains. Of course Nowra is not the plains in other aspects, but if a 15-20 knot NE wind can get inland to say Marulan it could given the other atmosphere winds be very interesting. a weak SE change is an added interesting feature - especially if winds go NW earlier in the day and the moisiture went thin.
Concerns - there is an ugly, ugly cloud band.
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Getting very excited about today.I somehow scammed the day off work,so i'll be chasing somewhere. Given the amount of shear, and instability on the ranges,I think everywhere should get storms today including the coast.So having said that im very tempted to stay put today given the amount of CAPE just west of us here in Nowra. This area has had a hopeless season with a lack of quality storms,hopefully things will change today. The tracker already picks up a very lightning active storm just west of Wagga Wagga heading straight for Albury. The ugly cloudband should arive early to mid afternoon, hopefully this doesent ruin things.
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Looks like the first 2 customers today are heading to just south of Wollongong from WNW and Newcastle.
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I don't need to ad much to the comments already made but I think today we should see storms joining into a squall line considering the reasonably linear nature of the winds aloft being generally westerly. And it allready looks like this is happening on radar atm. I'm keeping close to the Katoomba/Lithgow area as storms will push through Sydney with such strong shear.
I would predict though that there will be isolated cells pop up before the line around the Lithgow/Bathurst corridor which could well produce some 3-4cm hail.
Jeff.
Update: The line of storms currently west of Canberra are moving quite fast, probably around 80-100km/h so very hard to chase.
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This afternoon's storm was unusual to say the least. I had been at Parramatta where it was gradually getting cloudier and feeling like rain, but with no big anvils or anything visible. Started hearing reports on the radio that the storm had just hit Campbelltown and it was bucketing down, and just beat it home.
Started with light rain and developed into a real downpour with high winds. It was like being in a hurricane almost. Add to that lots of lightning (mostly up in the cloud but some healthy CGs). At Rydalmere we managed 17mm in 15 minutes, the news report just on Channel 10 said Sydney got 20mm in 10 minutes. Looking at the radar it was moving at a healthy rate as well - probably just as well, if it had been slower the amount of rain and local flooding would have been worse.
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Nice work Jeff - a few isolated cells did go up ahead of the line over the mountains. One of them is looking awfully nice on Newcastle Radar around Singleton at 1720EDT . Certainly looks supercellular with it's northwards movement compared to the rest of the cells moving east north east. Hoping some one is up there to get some footage.
Tomorrow is looking very interesting. I would like to see more speed in the lower levels as the turn is more than ample for Supercells around the Nyngan to Mudgee to Narrabri area. Could be an early start from Sydney with a lengthy drive ahead.
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Unfortunately also the sad news that someone was killed by the storms that crossed Sydney this afternoon when a shop awning collapsed on him at Balgowlah with the weight of water, also bringing down a load of bricks. While we might enjoy the storms there is often a downside to them in property damage and at worst injury or death..
The great lightning shots we capture or supercells we see, might also be hurting someone else. That's not to say we shouldn't keep doing what we are doing, but maybe think twice with the comments about wishing for a good day of storms. Maybe temper that wish with "a good day of storms that don't hurt anybody"!
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While there have been a number of large cells in other parts of the state today, here in Armidale we just got a quite-lightning-active storm. The conditions have been good for storms for a number of days now, but this evening's was the first storm we've had in a fair while. Yesterday the radar indicated a few storms between Armidale and Glen Innes, though I didn't get a chance to see them personally.
The storm this evening came from the SW; the centre passed over Tamworth, before the system weakened a little , and became more messy on the way to Armidale. The first picture is the radar image of the storm close to Armidale. There were lighting flashes every few seconds, though few seemed to be CGs. I did manage to get a few (slightly blurry) photos, which I have uploaded. When the storm passed over there was only a short period of heavy rain, and the whole system, at our place in the North of the city, only provided an additional 3 mm to the large total that is building for December and indeed the whole year. Looking at the radar, we only got the northern end of the elongated centre of heavy rain, though the Airport, south of us, only recorded 1.8 mm. The winds also got quite high with 83 km/h recorded at one point at Armidale airport.
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Hi guys,
Not much to report really - I think overkill - lots of storms, not much competition and too much of an anvil. I did chase down near Camden with David Croan and Paul Graham who somehow got separated from me. With a phone call from Nick, I asked were their other storms developing after the squall line. He confirmed a cell near Cowara. So I gave chase trying to get over the mountains with the risk that it might collapse. That it did 30km still to go. Oh well gave it a try and then came back home - nice drive to near Bathurst:)
Here are a few pictures:
Storms approaching near Camden - my camera did not get wasted on it I can tell you:
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1207jd01.jpg)
Storm near Bathurst - perhaps the storm could have attained LP structure earlier - who knows - definitely breaking down by the time I got within view:)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1207jd02.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1207jd08.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi guys,
Not much to report really - I think overkill - lots of storms, not much competition and too much of an anvil. I did chase down near Camden with David Croan and Paul Graham who somehow got separated from me. With a phone call from Nick, I asked were their other storms developing after the squall line. He confirmed a cell near Cowara. So I gave chase trying to get over the mountains with the risk that it might collapse. That it did 30km still to go. Oh well gave it a try and then came back home - nice drive to near Bathurst:)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
I have to say I was expecting a better looking squall line than what eventuated...oh well. Not overly fussed about tomorrow either with what I am seeing on the 6z run, particularly at 500mb. After a late night, I'll see how I feel, but at most Mudgee-Bathurst region.
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Forecast 8th December 2007 and Report 7th December 2007
Good luck today everyone. For those who are fully commited to todays chase can you let me know how green it is now around Walgett! Probably going to be a really good day for you Shaun. I'm unimpressed with how much this event has been downgraded in the last 24hrs. Instability has moved further north and there is the risk of mid level cloud interfering with any low level flow.
My dark horse bet for today is Oberon-Bathurst-Lithgow. It has stayed south of potential cloudbands in every forcast and is still looking at decent instability with the added bonus of possibly lots of dry air aloft which combined with altitude gives a very reasonable chance of good hail, either in size or quantity.
Yesterday was a bummer in the end. I didn't venture into the Blue Mountains after all after seeing how much precip was falling ahead of the squall line. I was a bit out with the location of predicted isolated cells as they formed further east than Lithgow/Bathurst but the ones that did develop showed some nice albeit weak inflow charicteristics at times.
Here's hoping today is much better!
Jeff.
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Hi all, just a few pictures of a lovely wake up at 130am or so this morning at home.Constant crispy thunder with lightning retina burnage at times, were fairly close! A vigourous line of storms swept through which i'm sure woke everyone up in Lismore.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20071208rwa.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20071208rwb.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20071208rwc.jpg)
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Report 8th December 2007
Hi,
I decided to head to near Lithgow leaving here at 1pm. I was hoping that something could develop within the critical timing before upper level warming created havoc.
A storm did develop near Bathurst but rather than head near it I relocate from north of Lithgow to near Portland with a decent view of the base from here. The storm did approach and dumped some precipitation but weakened with more updrafts developing on the north end. I gave one last shot to get a better view given it was progressing slowly east. The last pulse showed some half decent structure and then with the dreaded warming signs about 5pm, I called it a day.
Some pictures:
North of Lithgow
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208jd01.jpg)
East of Portland
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208jd06.jpg)
North of Cullen Bullen
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208jd12.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I agree entirely Rodney there were some absolute crackers last night.
It did take a while to come over; the storm was looming for a good hour before it landed in Lismore. I could hear thunder just before I thought about going to bed and then thought I'll see what happens and I'm glad i did.
It hung around for about and hour? then moved off to the North.
Yesterday a bit like today was hot and very sultry, it was what felt like "Storm weather" so it was nice to get a break in the heat (and some sleep)
I managed to get a few pics, our house is surrounded by trees unfortunately.
[attach=#]
[attach=#]
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Cryon, near Walgett, NSW, Dec 8 2007
Chris and I chased out of Narrabri to Cryon, between Burren Junction and Walgett.
The dominant storm put up an anvil that must have covered a big area. It was probably peaking before we got there and had lots of outflow by ~3pm when we arrived. Lot's of rain, lots of lightning, decent wind, no hail.
Highlight was that we both saw our first vortex on the ground! This thing appeared about 300m away, maybe 50m round, and was sucking up debris.. it certainly got our attention.
Dunno.. Maybe it was associated with the gust front, a "gustnado"? What do you think? There is a small lowering above the vortex, but there was no obvious funnel. The visible vortex only lasted for 30 seconds or so.
I have a really crap movie of the vortex here (7MB):
http://narrabriweather.net/tmp/cimg1543.mov
And some time-lapse footage of the storm here (2.5MB):
http://narrabriweather.net/tmp/20071208-TL.avi
Cheers,
Dave
BTW: Jeff, I tried to get you a photo to show how wonderfully green it is, but it's a bit dark :-)
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David,
Good thunderstorm over the vast Narrabri plains - looks like you had some long lived action.
Certainly that feature seems to be a gustnado along the strong outflow inflow interaction.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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December 7 Stills
As per Jimmy's post for this day earlier in the thread..
Squall line to the west:
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/David/20071207_01.jpg)
and getting closer:
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/David/20071207_02.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/David/20071207_10.jpg)
probably most interesting thing all day was the rainfall creating rapids with large standing waves in all the gullys near Menangle
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/David/20071207_11.jpg)
Today is interesting, particularly late in the afternoon.
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Just heard reports on the radio of 1 inch hail out west at St Clair, on the radar the big black bit looks it is heading right for Parramatta and me at Rydalmere, might have just got home and the car away in time. At the moment just very large rain drops hitting, hasn't started hailing yet.
Driving down Pennant Hills Rd it looked very black, not green though. Lots of rumbling but no lightning seen yet.
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The storm appeared to weaken as it came over my place, mostly heavy rain with some pea size hail and few flattish ones about the size of 10 cent pieces. Looking at the radar loop the heaviest part went slightly to the north of me. Interesting was while the storm approached from the WSW, initially the rain was falling from an easterly direction despite no wind on the ground. As the main part of the storm went over the rain changed direction to come from the west. I am assuming this means fairly strong inflows higher up? Only about 5mm here, it wasn't a downpour just the rain drops were quite large ones.
From the radar loop Carlingford was probably more in the middle of the heavy stuff.
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For Sun 9th Dec
hi gang,
1600hrs EDT jst got hammered with hail up to 1.5 inches in Baulkhan Hills, near cnr of Windsor
Rd and Norwest Blv. lasted ~ 10 minutes. much tree debris on the ground and my toyota echo is
peppered with fine dents :( ohhh well it was gonna happen some time.
will post some pic later
Dave N
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Wow!!!!!!!!!!!
We just had a supercell develop and track right across Sydney from South of Penrith. I chased it from Penrith through Erskine Park and along the M4 to Blacktown where it dropped GIANT hail. I witnessed golf ball hail falling from the back of the updraft at Erskine Park and then I drove into giant hail at the Prospect Hwy. I measured a hailstone at 7.9cm! I have numerous large dents on my car now consistent with hits by at least 6cm stones but I don't think i copped a direct hit from any larger stones. While hail was falling at Erskine Park I experienced rain wrapping around the back of the storm.
Just saw the news and the footage shows evidence of sustained 8cm stones with some cars having giant holes punched through their windows!
Jeff
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Hi guys,
Just heard the radio broadcast here also! They were saying it was bedlam out at the Blacktown Mall with parts of the roof collapsing under the weight of all the hail?
I hope someone was out there and was able to get some shots or footage with relative safety! I could imagine how the cars look as I heard the average hail size was up in the "tennis ball" range? I hope the people affected had insurance!
Cheers,
Shauno
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Got moderate sized hail just south of Parramatta, once again from the rear updraft. Not much wind though.
Must have gotten rather interesting in Terrigal when the two storm systems collided.
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Here are three photos from todays supercell. The first shows hail falling at Erskine Park and the next show a broken 8cm hailstone picked up near Blacktown and the third is the three largest stones I found. My car has a lot of dents now!
Jeff.
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What an amazing storm. First of all I truly hope those affected by it are ok. I drove around Dural and Cherrybrook watching as Cars with no windscreens were driven around. I thought I was about to lose mine at one point near the McDonalds however it stayed in one piece.
I spent the first 45 minutes up at Dural lookout watching a scene similar to what Ben has captured. The structure was incredible and has come across really well on video.
I will post two different videos. The first one is the structure of the Updraft time lapsed in the first part cutting to the base rotating underneath it. I can't explain how incredible it was watching this storm from such a vantage point! More video of the 6-8cm hail falling shortly.
Sydney Storm Chasers - 09 Dec 07 Sydney Supercell Structure Video (http://sydneystormchasers.com/)
Also a quick photo of the largest stone I could find - measured at 7.5cm around 20 minutes after falling so may have been up to 8cm when it fell.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/7cmHail.JPG)
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My God those are large stones! I hope everyone is ok and not affected too much by the massive hail. The damage bill must go into the tens of millions.
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Supercell thunderstorm - Sunday 9 December 2007
Hello
I was ready for the Sunday afternoon event and finished the day having my Council car peppered with hail dents.
At around 3 pm, I began watching a thunderstorm to the south and another cell to my north. I was thinking of going north because the northern storm cell at one stage had reasonable structure until I noted it weakening.
However, another cell to my WSW caught my attention and I kept hearing distant rolling thunder from it. Once I saw the crisp sharp anvil, I decided to stay where I was. At around 4 pm, I was rewarded with a well structured lowering on the northern side of the storm including a brief funnel (Photographed).
At this point, I could hear the sound of distant wind, rain and hail but was captivated by the wall cloud and lowering (Many photos taken).
The rain started as light drizzle being blown sideways by the gale force winds followed by larger raindrops. The hail followed. I observed allot of hail up to golf ball size (From 1 cm to 4 cm most common) and then larger 5 cm hailstones fell. The hail event lasted approximately 10 minutes. I may have witnessed 6 cm hail because I drove a short distance down the road after the storm moved on and observed stones up to 6 cm (Photographed) lying on the ground.
I bore witness to a solid barrage of hail of various sizes and the best I have seen in Sydney. Anyway, the car is now peppered with numerous hail dents especially on the boot and roof. I parked under a small leafy tree but the tree as well as numerous other trees in the same street suffered significant damage.
I photographed residents cleaning up afterwards and finally took some photos of storms to the north to conclude the day.
My decision to stay at Bella Vista paid off nicely and it is the first time, I have managed to capture a hail storm this size in Sydney in its entirety.
Harley Pearman
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Hi,
I just returned home after a long journey. I chased the Blacktown cell and almost smashed my windscreen with hail to 8cm. From Erskine Park, hailstones of up to 3cm or so and then once on the M4 motorway, I began to hear the larger thumps. Then once I got to the Wallgrove Road turn off, there was sporadic car vibrators placing new dents into the car. I think the worst hit areas are northern Blacktown where the car yards I observed have broken windcreens and I can tell some dents were quite major though isolated as one would expect.
I then tracked north east through north Parramatta and then came out onto the F3 Freeway. I got back into the flanking line or new cells near Wyong and then headed into Budgewoi area and got hail to about 5cm in diameter. No time to measure and then found myself out of the storm anyway.
What a nice supercell to break the supercell drought!
Photographs when I get a chance - I need to drink and eat!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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8cm hail wow!!! It was an amazing storm.. the structure was probably the most insane I've seen on a storm in Australia and the rotation was incredible. Thankfully the storm lost its hail size a bit as it came over here despite returning strong echoes right overhead.. but we still managed golf ball size hail! No damage though. heres some structure shots
(http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshoresc1t.jpg) (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshoresc1.jpg)
(http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshoresc2t.jpg) (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshoresc2.jpg)
(http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshorescpant.jpg) (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshorescpan.jpg)
(http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshorescpan2t.jpg) (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshorescpan2.jpg)
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Great photos everyone!
OK part two of my post ... First of all a few pictures from today .....
Amazing structure with knuckles under the anvil! (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/07-12-09-02jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/07-12-09-02jh.jpg)
Wall Cloud underneath the base. Have a look at the video (link on the front page of Sydneystormchasers.com) to see the rotation
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/07-12-09-03jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/07-12-09-03jh.jpg)
7cm Hail
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/7cmHail.preview.JPG) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/7cmHail.JPG)
A not so fortunate car - windscreen smashed completely.
(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/07-12-09-07jh.preview.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/07-12-09-07jh.jpg)
Lastly I have now put the video up of the hail falling in Dural. You can view it via this link - www.sydneystormchasers.com (http://www.sydneystormchasers.com) . Awesome watching the hail bouncing up to a metre in the air after hitting the grass. I was amazed my windscreen didn't crack near the start.
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Very interesting video from an area I have driven up the last 4 days for work or to visit a friend yesterday! The strange thing that I thought as I came down Pennant Hills Road towards home is that the storm didnt have any structure. There was no obvious anvil or base when I saw it. And as it came over home it was just a darker mass of cloud than what was already with us.
There was cloud around, but nothing hit here obvious with any structure you could see. No base to look at, no big anvils. It just hit. I guess by the time it got to Rydalmere it has spread out somewhat into a wider area or something. Lightning was around, with lots more rumbling than bolts that I saw. In fact I only saw 1 CG off to the north.
Nothing big enough to cause damage here, could have left the muddy 4WD out for a wash in the end!
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Great Video of the storm James...
I only have one question; How do you still have a windscreen in your car ?????????? lol.
Pretty quiet up here on the north coast, There were 2 cells this afternoon that came toward Lismore, one tracked west out toward Casino, ( I was going to go out and get a few pics by myself and the other half said "see you in an hour" So I said well come with, so we packed up the family and the four of us went on our first chase!!!)
The cell that tracked west out past Casino looked to be promising at first but after half an hour it died in the proverbial, just seemed to lose oomph.
The second cell that was more eastbound stopped just south of Lismore (and a little to the east) and sat there doing nothing that I could see, only in the last 25 Mins it has now started to flash a few cloud cloud's, and a faint rumble. It hope it develops into more but I think it's unlikely*.
(will attach pics soon, upload folder is full atm)
Cheers
Mathew.
* I reserve the right to change this opinion (as the storm nears)
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Nice photos guys. It will be interesting to find out what kind of wind damage occurred through western Sydney. There were scenes of trees down and reports of concrete slabs being lifted. Any more reports on the type of wind damage?
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Interesting if there was wind damage. There was no wind here at Rydalmere except light breezes. For the Sydney region BoM shows Badgery's Creek peaked at 57 km/h at 3:09 (ignoring Newcastle Nobbys with 89 kmh at 6:52). Shouldn't have been enough wind to cause damage unless something was very localised.
Being newish to all this, I was wondering if someone can confirm my theory about the rain direction posted earlier in this thread when it came over.
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December 9th Sydney Supercell
I'm going to post some more photos from todays chase of interesting aspects. Firstly how it look from near Penrith early in it's life. Notice the fine funnel in the second image.
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_001.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_001.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_013.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_013.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_015.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_015.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_021.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_021.jpg)
The hail showed very interesting charicteristics. I photographed some stones that were completely opaque and others that were see through like glass as well as many stones where you could see the original pea size stone in the middle. Some of the hail showed signs of rapid increase in size going from pea to 6cm in as little as 3 cycles!
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_073.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_0073.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_075.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_075.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_080.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_080.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_090.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_090.jpg)
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_081.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_081.jpg)
The leaf litter on the M4 was worthy of the hail size!
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_108.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_108.jpg)
Lastly don't block traffic and be carefull parking under overpasses as this serious accident occured as a result of just that!
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_114.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_114.jpg)
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I was just about to ask about their shapes and look - you've answered it before I even posted! I hope you put those monsters in a container and put them in the freezer for those storm chase discussions over dinner with friends - show them those and they'll go nuts.
Nick Moir rang me and said he was stranded in Brissy due to the delay of aircraft leaving due to the storms. He wasn't a happy camper after hearing about the 8cm hail and that everytime he leaves NSW they get supercells...
I noticed the cell was still massive as it moved out to sea also - not a bad supercell to stop the lull of storms of late!
Mike
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9th December Western Sydney
Very nice supercell over western Sydney today. Shane and I chased around the same region as where the biggest hail struck but aimed to avoid getting stuck in the hail. We had sporadic stones to the size of golfballs being projected out of the storm whilst driving, which I have footage of but I am still to go through it.
Here is a brief timelapse of the wallcloud:
http://www.ecstormchasing.com/video/09_12_2007_SCwallcloud.wmv
(http://www.ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9/p/09_12_2007_baseWC.jpg)
We headed north towards central coast up to warnervale aerodrome and was greeted with this nice guster to cap off the day:
(http://www.ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9/p/09_12_2007_wyongguster.jpg)
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Couple more... great pics everyone!! Thats just unlucky David!
(http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshorepan4t.jpg) (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/nshorepan4.jpg)
(http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/dodgepant.jpg) (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/dodgepan.jpg)
Flood in yard (http://ecstormchasing.com/images/chase/2007_12/9b/floodyard.jpg)
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My decision to stay at Bella Vista paid off nicely and it is the first time, I have managed to capture a hail storm this size in Sydney in its entirety.
Well done Harley. I'd love to see your photos, especially of your car!
Dave we've all been were you were yesterday. Mate I was in the same position in Oct 04 when matt and I turned around and missed the Singleton Hailstorm so I can feel your pain and loss.
Does anybody know where the place was in Kemps Creek that got damaged by severe winds in yesterdays storm? They would've had to have been on the southern edge of the storm which makes me wonder if maybe they copped the RFD? When I was shooting the supercell at Penrith I could see faintly another updraft further south with a nice cone shaped base. It is evident on radar so it might have been responsible or RFD?
Jeff.
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December 9th Sydney Supercell
Here is the image I was talking about in regards to the other updraft south of the main updraft. It's like it was developing as a storm split.
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_024.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_024.jpg)
This is the same image with enhanced contrast.
(http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_024b.jpg) (http://www.tempestlight.com/reports/2007/20071209/20071209_024b.jpg)
Jeff.
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This was what was posted by David C last night that went missing from the thread
Wow, that is really great timelapse sequence there James, and Phil, and also photos too everyone :)
9th December 2007 will always hit a raw nerve with me, in fact I felt like detouring to Watson's Bay at around 6:00pm. Headed out on the M5 around 2:00pm to take a look at the early cells that were firing and was in contact with Jimmy. They were visibly struggling so I thought what the heck and pulled off the M5, rather than getting on the M7, as I had some final Christmas shopping that I needed to take care of -- Liverpool Westfield it was! Well at the checkout, around 3:30, I receive an sms from Paul saying that the storm that initiated near Warragamba had rapidly intensified. By the time I got out I had no chance to get on the northern side, given where I was, although the updrafts looked very powerful - not at all surprised by the hail sizes.
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MB: Having some forum issues atm - if anyone notices any problems please email me: [email protected]
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Wow - great images of the Sydney supercell! Heard about it late yesterday arvo while on chase but could only imagine the structure until now :)
Radar 9th December 2007:
Sydney hailstorm radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20071209/sydney128.htm)
MB
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Interesting funnel Jeff. The pre-storm sounding (below) showed that there was extreme instability in place (~ -11Li) and the storm exploded rapidly around the time you took the photos. All that energy coupled with motion (around 40 left) and NE infeed there would have been some impressive SREH in the inflow layer. (http://www.agrigen.com.au/David/IDS65024.94767.png.png)
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Excellent photos/videos everyone. It's amazing the way these storms build up on the radar.
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Impressive radar loop Michael. Secondary storm was huge. Sounding not too shabby either given the amount of shear in the levels! Wow factor. Structure on some of those posted photographs is very impressive, rotation galore. Informative comments by everyone which makes for an interesting read as the thread continues!
Mike
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I chased to Dubbo on Saturday but came away with nothing.Distant storms could be seen to the northeast towards Tamworth,but they wernt worth bothering about.Stayed in Mudgee overnight hoping the cap would break,but it didnt. Woke up to some rumbles on Sunday,BIG mistake of the day was not checking the models in Mudgee(too lazy to look for an internet cafe). I wont make that mistake again.So for that reason I thought Bathurst was a good target area to start with.We hung around Bathurst for a good while. DPs held in the mid teens in Bathurst but something didnt seem right. A quick check of the Goulburn dewpoint got me moving eastwards to the Sydney Basin. Unfortunately when we got to Lithgow a storm developed to the east,and this exploded to become the supercell that ripped through Sydney.
Anyway heres the Sydney supercell looking from a blue mountains perspective(between Springwood and Katoomba at 3:50pm). Sorry about the serious lack of quality,I should have pulled over and taken a proper pic(we were in a mad rush to move east)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/IMG_1030edit.jpg)
We saw alot of leaf litter on the pennant hills road.We also got onto some weakening storms near Gosford,but we only saw some CGs and light/moderate rain. A frustrating day but some lessons learnt.
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Don't worry about the quality issues - it's what we can see what's important!
Mike
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Anyway heres the Sydney supercell looking from a blue mountains perspective(between Springwood and Katoomba at 3:50pm). Sorry about the serious lack of quality,I should have pulled over and taken a proper pic(we were in a mad rush to move east)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/IMG_1030edit.jpg)
We saw alot of leaf litter on the pennant hills road.We also got onto some weakening storms near Gosford,but we only saw some CGs and light/moderate rain. A frustrating day but some lessons learnt.
That is a brilliant pic Pingtang in showing a different perspective of the storm! In addition to any forecasting lessons/clues that you and others may have learnt in going out bush over this particular period (eg forget about CAPE when there is any evidence of mid-level warming as was the case on several of the touted big days out there), it is always important to know when to give up when trying to play catchup. Had you found yourself a lookout and shot some photos / time-lapse of what we see in that picture above, well, you would have some exceptional storm footage. Of course, overcoming the lure of a storm is easier said than done.
Jimmy, Geoff and I tried, in vain, to get ahead of the Muswellbrook supercell a few years back. We had shot enough footage already and the storm was becoming HP, though, being chasers, we still wanted to get ahead. In the end, some of the largest hailstones - record breakers in Australia no doubt, were waiting to be picked up and documented - we gave it all up for a hopes of seeing the HP forward flank even though in reality we all knew we would not get ahead of that storm. The stuff we did get -- 8cm -- was the small stuff - the big stuff would have been 12cm+ -it was huge.
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Dave,
do you know what the CAPE value was according to that sounding you posted? It looks big and i'd say 3500+-? Any ideas?
I agree with Dave about making the most of oppurtunity's. Timelapse foot of the back of the supercell with overshoots going up and even persisting would be very valuable. I know myself that once I got to Blacktown it was all over as far as chasing went. I could have kept going but it would've meant passing up the oppurtunity to document the hail size which turned out to be 8cm. I knew that others would document it's later stages and i'd done enough and gotten more than enough excitment and it's annoying chasing through city's and constanly copping traffic lights.
Jeff.
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Unfortunately I did not take any pictures yesterday as I was doing the Wollongong weather observations at the time, how's that for irony. Anyway, at 3pm I could see the storms to the north. At this stage they were obviously multicell with multiple updrafts going up one after the other. By around 3:30 that had quickly changed and there was one powerful updraft and a large backshearing anvil. This could be seen for quite some time and interestingly I could still see the updraft from Wollongong when the storm was at its most intense.
This storm was really quite amazing, my jaw alost hit the ground when I saw the radar when I got home. I think that is one of the most textbook radar signitures I have seen for sometime. Its quite good the BoM did the afternoon sounding, just one question though, do you think plotting for 32 degrees is appropriate. A LI of -11 is extreme to say the least, temps were around the mid to high twenties which may mean the LI was a little lower?
Michael
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Dave,
do you know what the CAPE value was according to that sounding you posted? It looks big and i'd say 3500+-? Any ideas?
Jeff.
Hi Jeff, I know there are some programs going around that could be used to calculate CAPE (in all its forms) from the BoM soundings (digital atmosphere etc)...but these seem to be tied up with the standard times.....and I don't use them myself. Or you could estimate it more manually; http://tornado.sfsu.edu/geosciences/classes/m201/buoyancy/CAPE_Procedure.html
or
use the GFS forecast sounding on Brisbane Storm Chasing, compare the it to reality, as in yesterday's BoM sounding, and if ok plug in your dewpoint temperature values and re-plot to find calculated CAPE
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-33.8607&lon=151.2050&date=2007120906&gribdate=2007120906
eg using Richmond obs 31 / 23 (http://soundings.bsch.au.com/tmp/09122007_06_7199.png)
I'd agree with you though, just eyeballing it from previous experience, that it would be in the 3,500 - 4,000 range.
Temps were in the low 30's across some western suburbs around 2/3pm yesterday Michael (eg 30.5 Bankstown, 31.1 Richmond), so I'd assume, give or take within the usual error bars, that the Li would have been around -10 or -11 in the pre-storm environment....not too far off that mark anyway.
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CAPE = ~ 4,500J/kg...so 3,500 +/1 1000 looks reasonable to me! although I'm thinking the BoM sounding was contaminated by the initial storm development. Any thoughts?
edit: actually, looking at radar, probably not!
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Chase Report - Coonamble Area, 8th December 2006
There was a lot of expectation about this day - the GFS model had been predicting high CAPE values in the Central West and North West, every model also had a prominent warm layer from about 700mb to 500mb. I arrived at Dubbo at 1.30pm, at this stage there was Cu everywhere, but nothing at the congestus stage, except far NE over the Coonabarabran area.
I measured a surface temperature of 34C, and dewpoint around 20C, whilst not exactly equating to low LCL's, under normal circumstances these conditions would be welcomed for an Aussi chaser. However the sky had me worried. I have been around long enough to know what a strong CAP looks like. I hit Dubbo library and ran a forecast sounding, my heart sank, the CAP from hell.
I hit the road again as Dubbo just did not look good. I headed northwards as the Cu looked more healthy, whilst still being on the plains.
Finally around 4pm a small cell developed near Gulargumbone. It did not look that impressive. But................................
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/081207a_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/081207a.jpg)
...............a weak, but at the same time telling anvil told me that the updraft to this storm was obscured and probably stronger than it appeared.
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/081207b_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/081207b.jpg)
I headed further towards the cell. Some isolated CG's started coming down with the rain shaft. I saw one CG hit the ground about 100m away. The next minute I was enveloped in a nice microburst, I was unprepared and quickly fumbled for the camera.
A short video of a small microburst (http://ozthunder.com/video/081207.wmv)
I had high hopes after this. Was the CAP finally broken ! Alas the CAP held firm and in fact over the next hour seemed to be stronger. There was another weak cell NE so I chased this to Baradine, but in the 80kms of road I could not catch it - there was obvious mid level steering wind taking the storms east.
At Coonabarabran near sunset another storm developed to the NE - the picture clearly shows the low level glaciation and very low storm tops
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/081207c_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/081207c.jpg)
I caught this cell near Gunnedah - by then however the show was largely over with lightning only once every 1 minute or so. So I headed home, arriving back in Wollongong after a 1480km round trip at 3.30am.
Lesson Learnt
In Australia over the last few years we have only infrequently seen the high CAPE levels that have been almost routine the past week or two - higher CAPE does not equal bigger storms, I knew this and I knew that there was a rather warm mid levels in play, but there was further hints in the models that should have picked up - why at 09Z, 12Z and 15Z was the CAPE still so strong? perhaps because there were no storms to dissipate the energy ! Elementary in hindsight.
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Sunday the 9th of December and Westpoint Blacktown at 3 pm, the only sound around was tenpins going down at a children's birthday we were invited to. 30 minutes later and it was hailing up to 4 cms as pandemonium hit the shopping centre. Rushing outside to be greeted by hailstones that increased in size and shape up to the largest one I collected which I measured to be 7.8 cms. Accompanying the largest ones was the return of sunshine as the storm headed off to the Hills- Glenhaven area. Making sure the kids were safe and sound I then photographed the hail shaft as it motored through Hornsby up to the central coast. Souvenir stones were kept and the largest is still over 7.4 cms. As Jeff mentioned the shapes were quite varied from conglomerate pea cluster stones to a pearl centre stone surrounded by a large opaque shell. Reports, photos and video footage from all have been very knowledgeable. We now join the queue in claiming insurance on our battered and windscreen fractured car. Cheers, Con.
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As mentioned I was lucky here at Rydalmere from a damage point of view, though unlucky from a storm chasing point of view. My boss lives near Castle Hill, his place had large tree branches down all through the yard and in the pool. When the power came back and pump for the solar hot water came on water started coming off the roof, it had trashed that but amazingly spared the windows.
The video on 9 news tonight was amazing of the tennis ball size hail and the holes it left in the lawn, people were putting the hail back in the holes to show how big they were.
I guess seeing as this is only a rented place if I get one of those here, at least I won't have to pay to fix it :-)
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Hello I am totally new here, but not new to weather. I love clouds especially.
Unfortunately I was in the mall at Blacktown when the storm hit and couldn't find the exit so I could check out the storm when it hit :(, but I was with the crowd of shoppers looking at the large hailstones hitting the glass ceiling. The noise was ridiculous! A siren went off and there was jokes about a tornado warning. :D
We finally got outside and as we were driving along people were jumping out of their cars to get a more tangible view of the huge hailstones. It looked amazing.
(http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m296/live-lee/Naturesque/DSC00427.jpg)
I went to a nearby field and was blown away by the size of them all.
(http://i107.photobucket.com/albums/m296/live-lee/Naturesque/DSC00433.jpg)
A friend's windscreen was smashed in and my grandmothers porch roof has some interesting large dints in it!!!!
Thanks sooo much for all your posts and pics on here hay! just awesome! :o
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Welcome D Lee. Your first post!! A great start and we all look forward to further photos and comments from you. We as members like to include cloud structures/photos so if you manage to get some beafy storm structures or anything photogenic we'd love to see them.
Hail looking more like rocks! Hope your car did not sustain too much denting and could imagine the noise, would have been deafening on an iron roof. I've never seen hail larger than 1.5cm so you can imagine my excitment and astoundment at some of the photos being posted also.
Mike
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Chase report NSW Northwest Slopes and Plains: Sunday 9th December 2007
A lot of cloud developed overnight and the storm targets in this northern part of NSW were pretty much a line from west of Narrabri to Goondiwindi. There was a lovely fresh NNE wind blowing.
Rodney and I headed to Moree. We stopped here for lunch and managed to check the sounding which showed more instability than the day before, but a lack of mid level winds and a little too much moisture. Cumulus was widespread but shallow throughout the late morning and early afternoon. We could see the congestus struggling to get through the cap - evident on the sounding around 800 hPa.
From about 3.30pm storms were beginning to form.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb06.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb06.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb07.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb07.jpg)
Quite a strong storm developed east of Collarenebri and was tracking generally NE towards Mungindi and Boomi so we headed west from Boggabilla.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb09.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb09.jpg)
We observed the storm from just west of Boomi. Two main updrafts were in play and both were spitting out plenty of CGs. The northern one dominated and tried to get its act together.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb11.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb11.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb16.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb16.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb20.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb20.jpg)
Another storm was developing overhead, and although it mucked up the earlier target, it ending up providing the best show of the day. A massive rain free area formed just to our north just before the CGs went ballistic.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb23.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb23.jpg)
We raced east to get into a better view and were treated to a brilliant display of lightning, with some very close bolts. The storm also developed a gustfront towards the north.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb24.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb24.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1209mb26.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209mb26.jpg)
Video stills:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/video/thumbs/2007/1209mb01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/video/stills/2007/1209mb01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/video/thumbs/2007/1209mb02.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/video/stills/2007/1209mb02.jpg)
Other activity persisted into the evening but it became difficult with light anvil rain about and outflow winds from other cells. During the drive east to Tenterfield we were treated to ongoing lightning with many massive anvil crawlers. There had been a lot of rain from these storms in some areas: we hit a flooded floodway at full speed - that was a ride and a half !
---> All photos for 9th December (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/mb20071209.html)
MB
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Disregard my previous comment, I had it in my mind that temps didn't make it into the low 30's but they did. I should of checked a little more carefully before posting, oh well. So LI of around -10 and CAPE around 4500 j/kg seems right on the money. That is extremely high CAPE, little wonder about the hail size when you have extreme CAPE and decent shear like that.
Michael
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December 9th Sydney Supercell
It's only just starting to sink in for me that the pre-storm enviroment on Sunday was so potent in Sydney. Let face it that surface air/DP temps of 31/25 in Western Sydney in a pre-storm enviroment is almost unprecedented and is the sort of enviroment that is even uncommon in the Northern Rivers/Se Qld. As Dave and others have worked out the cape/li was 3500-4000/-10 to -11! And this was combined with reasonable shear.
Jeff.
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Supercell storm Sunday 9 December
I read one post requesting wind speeds and tree damage.
I was up at Bella Vista and allowed the rotating wall cloud to pass right over me. Once the cloud passed to my NE, I was hit by cold gales from the south west direction and intense drizzle.
The drizzle was blown horizontally in a NE direction. A barrage of heavy rain then occurred. No trees were knocked down however there was significant stripping of leaves, twigs and small branches from trees.
The hail then followed with 4 to 6 cm stones common. Looking at some of my photos (Which I had trouble posting in this and caused my first report to disappear), there are some rather large sporadic stones in the middle distance but I could not go out and get them as I may have been knocked out.
Towards the rear of the storm, the locality was hit by a heavy barrage of 4 to 6 cm hail stones and some gales were blowing from an easterly direction. It seems the hail was wrapping around the rear of the Storm. Some very large stones fell as the barrage was waning and then total silence. It lasted no more than 10 minutes.
There was intense leave stripping from trees. My car was parked under a small leafy tree and this and others in the street suffered significant damage. My car was then left exposed to the main hail barrage. No windows were smashed and the tree did take the brunt of it at first.
Winds and hail were strong enough to shred trees but not cause any to topple in the area I was in.
Harley Pearman
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Great post again Harley, you're a real pro.
I just wanted to mention the Tamworth supercell that happened on the 7th. I wasn't there for it but my office-mate was under it. Small hail and a downburst with someones home weather station measuring 150km/h winds. Peak winds may have been much higher as concrete power poles snapped under the force!!! Some places were blacked out for 23 hours and a shop keeper lost $20,000 in refridgerated stock.
One house was completely destroyed and others were damaged. Very lucky it just skimmed the north of town or there would have been massive damage. Thankfully I haven't heard anything about people being hurt.
Regards,
Dave
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Hi David - I noticed the local newspaper at Coonamble on Saturday had pics of some roof damage from that cell.
btw - if anyone has had hassles attaching images to their posts, please try again - the attachment folder was too full but has been fixed now.
MB
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North West Slopes & Plains, NSW, 8-9th Dec
I've already posted some movies of the gustnado we saw near Cryon on the 8th. The first photo is of the base of the storm around the same time.
Second photo shows heavy rainfall advancing up the Narrabri-Bingara Rd on the 9th, when Chris and I drove to the summit of Mt Kaputar. In retrospect I wish we went to rowena where a more compact cell with higher RADAR reflectivity was active.
Third photo is of some scud looking back towards Mt Kaputar/Maules Creek after we left the mountain. We made some timelapse of the base but there was very clearly zero rotation in the inflow of this cell.
Here is an article about the concrete power poles being snapped near Tamworth:
http://tamworth.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/devastation-power-pole-destruction-unprecedented/1102479.html
A short excerpt follows:
Devastation: Power pole destruction unprecedented
By David Ellery, Editor
FIVE CONCRETE power poles designed to withstand cyclonic winds were snapped like twigs by wind gusts of unprecedented force on Friday night.
The poles, which carried the crucial 66kW transmission line servicing Manilla and Barraba, were between Cargills and Wallamore Rd. “These poles were introduced in the early 1990s and we’ve never heard of any of them broken like this in the last 17 years,” Country Energy regional manager Matt Patterson said.
“I’ve spoken to the guys in our repair crews, some of whom have been with us for 20 or 30 years, and they have never seen such damage.”
Mr Patterson said that while there had been anecdotal reports of wind speeds in excess of 150km/h, he wouldn’t be surprised if the winds that snapped the poles had been much stronger than that. He has estimated the damage to Country Energy’s infrastructure in the Tamworth region at more than $10 million so far.
If you're out this way again Michael, by all means drop in for a beer!
Regards,
Dave
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David,
Tamworth supercell that happened on the 7th
Can someone confirm if this is the case - ie 'supercell'? Was there any other larger hailstones reported?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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An experienced spotter who was there referred to it as a supercell.
There was obviously good instability and the thing was motoring along so upper winds must have been okay. The cell was isolated with high reflectivity. While that doesn't mean it was a supercell, there's nothing to suggest that it wasn't.
My mate hasn't heard of any larger hail but obviously just because a storm has rotation doesn't mean large hail will form. I've time-lapsed storms with clear rotation that produced no hail and not a great deal of rain.
Regards,
Dave
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Here's radar loops of the storm which affected the Tamworth area on 7th December 2007. That's certainly an impressive signature for a storm about 300km from the Grafton radar.
---> Grafton 256km loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20071207/grafton256.htm)
---> Newcastle 256km loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20071207/newcastle256.htm)
1km VIS satpics
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200712070530.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200712070630.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200712070730.jpg)
Dave and everyone else - with the newspaper reports, please paste the important text into the forum thread then link to the source article - just in case the links disappear over time.
regards, Michael
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I made some comments on a storm on the 7th (on the first page of this thread) with some pics just after it passed by us here in Armidale. I rememner noticing how it had developed from an intense looking cell from Tamworth. I didn't realise then, that the storm that had passed over us had caused such serious damage in Tamworth. I remember the wind was quite high, but no where near 150 km/h.
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David,
An experienced spotter who was there referred to it as a supercell.
There are quite a few 'spotter's out there claiming supercells that are not. So on this forum, I guess we try questioning what reasoning one has to call a storm a supercell (relatively rare event) as compared to a severe storm which we know it qualifies as.
Michael, I checked the radar signature, and yes realtively intense. It is hard to determine that this fat blob has deviated from the mean atmospheric flow. Why do other clear supercells deviate from a particular direction and this one seems to not not do this? Perhaps it tries to become one but fails?
I am not saying it is or isn't a supercell - I just think it is dangerous to make such a call that subsequent readers may take as gospel. Certainly a nice severe storm - from images, it became outflow dominant rather quickly similar to other cells on the day and merged into the squall line.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi guys,
Now for the 'real' supercell, here are my pictures beginning with the base and then following the storm and subsequent severe storm around the central coast which looke to me to be a HP supercell - contained hail to 5cm and a nice inflow as well as radar deviant motion. I am glad others got a far better perspective of the earlier beast.
Supercell base in development
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd13.jpg)
Hailshaft
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd17.jpg)
Possible supercell in the Toukley area
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd24.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd32.jpg)
Damage pictures from the earlier supercell in Castle Hill:
uprooted tree from wind damage
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd39.jpg)
stripped leaves
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd40.jpg)
uprooted tree
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1209jd42.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi all. I remember seeing hail of this size in a Croydon, Victoria storm in 1982-83. Hope there were no major casualties in these NSW hail storms.
PJ
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Hi all,
A few pics from my weekend...
http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery2/v/Chase-Season-07-08/071207/ <--- Friday night headed out from Brisbane and down to Glen Innes via Warwick. Saw a distant storm at sunset and then the line of storms which moved up from the NW Slopes and Plains, over the Northern Tablelands and eventually over Brisbane.
http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery2/v/Chase-Season-07-08/081207/ <--- Saturday drove down to Coonabarabran area. Turned into a bit of a poor chase with dry air pushing in and upper level warming but still managed to get a nice storm in the early afternoon and another just on sunset near Gunnedah.
http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery2/v/Chase-Season-07-08/091207/ <--- Sunday I started the day in Glen Innes and watched some BIG cells go up on the coastal side of the range before heading W to the trough. Intercepted a line of storms N of Warialda and managed to follow this all the way back to Warwick. It put out some nice CG's and a great shelf cloud after dark. A small consolation for a somewhat disappointing weekend which held so much promise.
Macca
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The Sydney storm was a somewhat compact classic supercell, that was my impression watching from the south side. I superimposed the 28th October 1996 storm on the Dec 9 scan, at a time when each looked at peak intensity on radar (just set scale using the 50 and 100km radar rings, so both are to scale). Obviously the colour scheme has changed.
Quite a difference. One hit peak intensity over suburbia, the other over the (at the time) rural-urban fringe. Both produced very large hail. I suspect this recent storm produced a shorter and more narrow path of intense damage and slightly smaller hail than the 1996 storm. It was a serious storm nonetheless and the car damage that I saw today along Sunnyholt Rd was brutal!
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Hi David:
Thanks for your comments
28th October 1996 storm
should read 28th October 1995 storm
I want to clear this before people are confused:) (For those wandering that I am being brutal, this is a little joke between myself and David - I told David offline).
For those interested, there are two reports on this event which Geoff Thurtell and I chased:
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1995/docs/9510-01.htm
revised chase report
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1998/docs/9803-02.htm
There is no doubt this was a larger storm and if my memory serves me correctly, horses were knocked out near Cobbity I think. The worst hail David would have occured in the rural areas. This storm was much better structured and also more potent and long lived than the recent event. As you say the 9th December event was compact and seems to have maximised in one major pulse and then lost a lot of intensity - perhaps veering more into a HP supercell stage based on my pictures and radar imagery.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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David,
Tamworth supercell that happened on the 7th
Can someone confirm if this is the case - ie 'supercell'? Was there any other larger hailstones reported?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Hi all,
A few more photos of this storm and its structure are located here.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=17;t=000343;p=5
Cheers,
Macca
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Macca,
What seems to be your assessment of this given the pictures you refer to?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Some more pictures I forgot to invclude given I was so busy - damage from the hailstorm:
Hail damgae to vehicles including broken and punch windows
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1210jd02.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1210jd03.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1210jd04.jpg)
Damage to buildings
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1210jd19.jpg)
hailstones the size of tennis balls - very solid so weight needs to be taken into account
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1210jd23.jpg)
I have yet to see hailstones larger than this one but I do believe hailstones 8 to 9cm in diameter are possible.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Ouch that hurts. Nice cricket ball hail there Jimmy - something i'd not like to get clocked with. 'Knock of $10,000 on that car will you mate and I'll buy it.'
Mike
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Regarding the Tamworth storm, there seems to be cell merger ~ 6:40UTC, and a new core that develops at 7:10, or another merger given the two separate cores at 7:00. That's a solid echo at 7:30 all things considered. Looking at the photos in the link, they were taken in the hills looking some distance to the west or southwest. The first photo shows interesting structure - given the base, and inflow bands, stuff happening behind the hills, reports of severe weather, and assuming this coincides with best radar imagery, well I'd say it's a pretty organised storm at the least early on. The rest of the photos show the cell collapsing with a ragged shelf cloud remaining. Unfortunately, while radar is great on a chase it wont make the car go any faster -- it would be nice to see photos taken from along the Werris Ck road .
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Another interesting note about Sunday's supercell over Sydney was from a reporter I spoke to who spoke to Rob Webb at the BOM about this storm. Rob mentioned to him that at its highest, the cell over Sydney reached 15kms above sea level. I had a look at a sounding to work out what that was in feet and was amazed to see a figure of nearly 50,000 feet. That's extremely impressive for down this way as most storms in this latitude seem to range between 30,000 and 40,000 feet.
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Just a quick video still of the Sydney Supercell from the eastern side of the storm, note the beaver tail inflow band on the left hand side and wall cloud in the middle right.
[attach=#]
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Any indications of whether this hailstorm would be the costliest to date? I don't know how many you've had there but I know of one a while back that the bill was quite high. Has any reports come out as to the damage bill for this event yet?
Mike
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Not even close to the 1999 hailstorm, but then that hit over a much more densely populated area (the eastern suburbs). From wikipedia:
The 1999 Sydney hailstorm was the costliest natural disaster in Australian history, causing extensive damage along the east coast of New South Wales. The storm developed south of Sydney on the afternoon of April 14, 1999 and struck the city's eastern suburbs, including the central business district, later that evening.[1]
The storm dropped an estimated 500,000 tonnes of hailstones in its path.[2][3] Insured damages caused by the storm were over A$1.7 billion,[4][5] with the total damage bill (including uninsured damages) estimated to be around A$2.3 billion, equivalent to US$1.5 billion.[6][7] It was the costliest in Australian history in terms of insured damages, overtaking the 1989 Newcastle earthquake that had resulted in A$1.1 billion in insured damages. Lightning also claimed one life during the storm, and caused approximately 50 injuries.[8][9]
A report on the ABC website from last Thursday says the recent storm damage has hit $138 million, so pretty small compared to the 1999 one.
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Ah thanks for that Richary. I knew the 99 storm was costly but just had no idea of what it was. It's one of those events that I was not 'glued' to since joining the forum late as it were :)
As a result of that event did premiums rise or policies change as a consequence? Would be interesting to find out if the actual number of people adding hail damage to their insurance policies to date!
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Hi all,
I am going to encourage some links to You Tube videos or similar of the western Sydney hailstorm in particular:
David Croan told me of this one - actually David I think these are larger than 8cm:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4yZoLeDdzw&feature=related
err watch the exclamations after all this langauge is not unique to western Sydney
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqCtaFqqJqE&feature=related
Nice microburst followed by hail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gneFMzFJG1c
Very large hailstones
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9x3RKt-iarA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cskWLqs3MA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBumdZv2SoE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3CBU_RLN-0&NR=1
Some timelapse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBtTeib-eIU&feature=related
very large hails splashing in the pool
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGNhafD1nkc&NR=1
What you should not do in a hailstorm - very large hail in this shot in his hand 8-9cm??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CykBamRTaOs&feature=related
Some giant stuff possible in this clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IK4rFrUpVEY&feature=related
Turn down the volume - the song ruined the video
Ignore the music and watch the hail splatter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svQN-Zk46p0&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9feKo9Fd_AI
Not the best video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPll7C5Hgi0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjBwlzyQr_U&feature=related
This is another one of those funny I want to save it videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJizylby0XM&feature=related
unclear video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRdnqLUSHRU&feature=related
some video and pictures
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9uvzluqkME
Hills area hailstorm unclear footage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7D5oHz3peE
Baulkham Hills hailstorm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5P2YJV0Snc
Hornsby hailstorm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ERYqzzfcnA
Glenwood hailstorm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phZvn09ZsJg
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Great post Jimmy thanks for collating all that for us. Really good to see the vids!
Regards
Mat
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Entertaining to say the least! Language not unique to western Sydney? I'm not from there obviously and don't know what that means! Some great video of what not to do with stuff that size, covering up your car with iron? I think the damage is done!
Mike
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Mike, I think that Jimmy was referring to the possibility of somewhat "colourful" Language that may have been present.
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Yes, i was thinking that but thought that would have been a response from just about anyone witnessing the hail and it was the Western Sydney bit that threw me. :) The guy with the chair as protection would have to rate my favorite - def a keeper!
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Chase report NSW Central West: Saturday 8th December 2007
(re-posted due to accidental deletion of the original)
Rodney Wallbridge and I also decided to head inland for a weekend chase adventure - lured by the GFS forecasts which had been in place for several days.
The 12z run checked pre-dawn Saturday showed potential targets from around Nyngan extending NNE towards Collarenebri. Even at this late stage 500 temps were forecast to be quite encouraging with -10 extending up to 30 S at 06z A reanalysis of 06z GFS later that evening showed that it ended up being closer to -8 or -7, quite a difference to the forecast.
It was a long but awesome drive from Lismore to the Coonamble area via Glen Innes, Narrabri and Pilliga. The area was amazingly green.
The first cell spotted at 1.15pm was over the Warrumbungles and it was quite healthy looking.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb03.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb03.jpg)
Decent cumulus and congestus teased at our location and even this cell just to our north managed a CG at 2.20pm. The flies were a menace though - geeez !
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb07.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb07.jpg)
At some point after this the wind tended a bit westerly though the cumulus remained encouraging. We saw later that the dew point dropped to 10 at Coonamble by 4pm - a reflection of the air mass profile on the Cobar sounding.
Storms were occurring a fair way to the north, before some ok cells formed to the south. We moved to near Gulargambone and had a view of the cell Michael Thompson copped his microburst.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb09.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb09.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb10.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb10.jpg)
But that was it for a while - it really looked dried out at this point. Later in the afternoon other low topped activity developed over the Warrumbungles :
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb14.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb14.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb16.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb16.jpg)
The wind had shifted to a fresh NE about an hour before sunset and allowed some congestus to build pretty much over Coonamble. I was taking some shots of the cloud just because of the sunset colours before being amazed at a CG occurring! Soon after that a small microburst occurred.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb24.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb24.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb25.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb25.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2007/1208mb26.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/1208mb26.jpg)
This wannabe storm managed to put out several CGs before it dissipated 30 minutes later.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/video/thumbs/2007/1208mb01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/video/stills/2007/1208mb01.jpg) video still
---> All photos for 8th December (http://australiasevereweather.com/weather_pictures/main.php?g2_itemId=6177)
MB
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My Auntie and Uncle who live on the edge of Blacktown were on the edge of the supercell and copped hail to about 6cm in diameter.
Photographs courtesy Joe and Rita Vella
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Hello
I recently found the Bureau of Meteorology report on their website on the thunderstorm of 9 December 2007 worth mentioning here under the heading:-
Summary of significant Severe Thunderstorm events in NSW 2007/2008
Only three thunderstorms make this list and one of those is the North west Sydney event as below.
9 December 2007 - Severe storm with giant hail hits NW Sydney
It is stated that "a severe thunderstorm crossed Sydney's western and northern suburbs at around 4 pm producing many reports of golf ball to tennis ball hail in suburbs stretching from Blacktown to Wahroonga. The largest confirmed hail was 7 cm at Blacktown and 6 cm at Wahroonga although there was an unconfirmed report of 11 cm hail at Cherrybrook".
The damage bill has run into millions of dollars. The storm and associated cells also affected the NSW Central Coast and Newcastle producing very heavy rain, hail and squally winds. More than 1,300 calls for assistance were received by the SES.
It is a short report and there are no radar images of it available. However further to this, I am aware that there were around 59,000 insurance claims (Various) and a preliminary estimated damage bill of around $377 million. The final figure is likely to vary once it is known and fully costed.
As I live in the affected area, there are still homes in the Blacktown area with tarpaulins over their roofs three months after the event.
It is interesting to note that a report of 11 cm hail was reported but not verified.
Harley Pearman
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Hello
Cost of the 9 December 2007 event - A perspective:
Jimmy, further to my recent post and your suggestion, I have looked at some insurance costs of this event. It appears the final insured cost will come to approximately $400 million. That is for insured loses only but I cannot find a figure for "Uninsured loses".
That would make it Sydney's costliest storm event since the April 14 1999 event which cost $1.72 Billion (Insured loses) with uninsured loses taking that figure to $2.3 Billion. (That equates to US - $1.5 Billion being a conversion ratio figure that I can find).
The Blacktown event appears to be Sydney's third most expensive thunderstorm event after the April 14 1999 event (1) and the 1991 event (2). It is acknowledged that a figure of $215 Million is stated for the 1991 event but there is evidence to suggest the costs were as high as $645 million but the final figure is not known.
Since 2000 if one looks at the 2000 event (November), 2002 event (February) and now the 2007 event (December) the 3 big supercells across western Sydney have caused approximately $930 million damage (Insured figures that I have found in the past) on western Sydney.
I am aware of the October 26 2003 event at Riverstone and environs but that pales and damage was limited to approximately $17 million because much of the impact was not on an urban area. However it may have been different had the urban area taken the full force of it.
The Blacktown event is by far the largest of the three recent hits since 2000, most likely because the storm reached peak intensity over a built up area and so it was the urban area that took the full force of the hail.
Harley Pearman
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Okay I have a short video here of the Sydney supercell from a blue mountains perspective. Video quality is quite ordinary,almost mobile phone standard but it will do for now. It still gives you a good idea on what the structure was like.
This storm had a strong overshoot for a good 10-15minutes atleast!
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/th_Moviegdfdffdg.jpg) (http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/?action=view¤t=Moviegdfdffdg.flv)
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It's a year since the December 9 Sydney hailstorm . I thought it was a good time to post these photos I found on a card that I had misplaced.These shots were taken just after it passed through blacktown, we were in Westpoint for a party at the time it struck. I took these around 4pm facing the NE and they show the flanking line feeding nicely into the powering updraft, with the shear giving the updraft a wonderful classic supercell forward tilt. There is even a funnel vortex on the SW side of the updraft. The hailstones are what I salvaged from the carpark and our well dented car. Hope these add another perspective to an incredible event. Cheers, Con.
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storms%20season%2007-08/westsyd-11.jpg)
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storms%20season%2007-08/westsyd-12.jpg)
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storms%20season%2007-08/westsyd-09.jpg)
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storms%20season%2007-08/westsyd-13.jpg)
(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Storms%20season%2007-08/westsyd-03.jpg)