Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Bath on 11 October 2007, 09:18:31 AM

Title: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 11 October 2007, 09:18:31 AM
A surface and upper trough will pass over NSW Thursday into Friday. Widespread storms are possible. Please use this thread for discussion on these dates rather than the current active thread.

regards, Michael
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 12 October 2007, 09:06:34 AM
Hi Michael,

what do you think the chances are of a storm (worth getting the camera out for) hitting the gold coast tonight is? It seems to be brewing out west, BOM just issued a severe storm warning for places out near boonah.

cheers

Karina
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Stormhunt on 12 October 2007, 09:43:09 AM
28/22 78% Feels like 32.4 from my weather station. Pretty hot and humid now. Nice cj's here out west with some powerful looking updrafts. bring it on storms! ;D
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 12 October 2007, 09:48:28 AM
Looks like something is developing just west of casino,

Just wish something would hurry up and develop here lol everything is to the north and south of where i live
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 12 October 2007, 10:50:21 AM
From the Brisbane sounding earlier today, the windshear is quite poor in the lower 4km of the atmosphere, but quite strong higher up. This means slow moving cells with big anvils. The instability is not strong enough to compensate for the weak low level winds - evident in what we have seen in coastal parts already today - smallish isolated activity - though still capable of hail. I haven't looked into what the potential for this evening is, but it looks poor atm.   There was an inversion on the Brisbane sounding at 300 hPa so storm tops are levelling out at about 10-11km - much lower than earlier in the week.

Inland the shear profile is similar but it's a lot more unstable being closer to the upper trough (colder upper temps) - hence the nice big cells in some parts this afternoon.

MB

Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Mike on 12 October 2007, 10:59:18 AM
Michael, from what is seen on the Visat images in the past hours how high would the tops of those severe storms be, they look fairly large.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 12 October 2007, 11:11:51 AM
A few pics of the thunderstorm which crept along the Richmond Range west of Casino and Kyogle this afternoon.

It sure put out an impressive anvil and gave several decent updraft pulses with interesting base lowerings, but overall remained a bit mushy. Interestingly, the anvil thunder was constant. I saw just one fully branched CG come from the top of the storm in front of the updraft.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101101.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101102.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101103.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101104.jpg)

I heard on the UHF radio while chasing that there was hail near Mallanganee (probably about the time of the first photo) , but not sure what size. Also - the relevant BoM warning:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAILSTONES and FLASH FLOODING
For people in parts of the
NORTHERN RIVERS Forecast District.

Issued at 1:43 pm Thursday, 11 October 2007.

Severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. At present a single thunderstorm cell which may be marginally severe is headed in the direction of Kyogle.

-------------------
Hi Mike - yes - the inland cells look very nice on VIS !

MB

Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: enak_12 on 12 October 2007, 11:49:23 AM
This is what we got today, its not much. Heard some thunder at least.

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/October%2011%20and%2012%20%202007/IMG_4133.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Stormhunt on 12 October 2007, 12:22:24 PM
Pretty much those cells on Moree radar heading towards NorthEast corner during tonight with some lightning show! Bring it on! Yes Michael its incredible on vis sat. Large tops! :o

Edit: Walgett has wind gusts of 85km/hr out of this line. Collarenebri had gust of 92km/hr in same line. 10.3mm of rain at Lightning Ridge in 25minutes. Appears to be that line going towards northeast corner! ;D
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Richary on 12 October 2007, 01:25:25 PM
What is Visat? How do we get onto this? The more toys to look at the better!
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Shaun Galman on 12 October 2007, 01:53:21 PM
Hi guys,
We definitely copped the eye of the storm earlier on! Debris everywhere, trees down, dust and mud covered almost everything. We photographed it from the arrival of the quite fibrous anvil which looked quite weak? There were no features other than 3 large and converging rain cores. A few crawlers here and there at the beginning and an awesome show of CG just on the edge of town. I missed out on capturing the CG's due to trying to escape the rapidly growing and approaching dust onslaught! The cells grew nicely though the CG activity died off somewhat? I think the rain measurements are accurate (as you'll see from my pics when I get them up) 10-15mm in 20mins. The wind would/gust speed would be more or less correct I'd say.

We have something on the way soon from the look of the lightning tracker, seems to be 60k's out or so. If it doesn't weaken, we may be in with another show! I'll have to keep you all in suspense until I can post the images! ;)

The power is flickering again while I'm typing this, so I'll have to leave it here guys!
Take care if your still out chasing tonight!
Shauno 
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: David Brodrick on 12 October 2007, 01:54:55 PM
Wow, that NE-heading line just passed over the top of Narrabri and that was great fun!

98km/h gust at the airport and one of our other weather stations had a 72km/h gust. Both had around 15mm in 15 minutes and another had 13mm. Someone just emailed us with a 40mm total from the day!

The first time we've had rain coming down in sheets for a long time. Also some pea-sized hail amongst it, possibly more north of town.

Missus is calling that dinner's ready, bye for now :-)
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 13 October 2007, 01:47:49 AM
What is Visat? How do we get onto this? The more toys to look at the better!

Visible satellite photos - there are many links available from here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/links/ozsatpic.htm

with this site providing some great high resolution images for Australia:
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat.html

We had another thundertsorm pass through here 1230 to 1am. Some very close lightning including CGs, but less than 1mm of rain due to the speed the line of activity was moving. Quite gusty winds but nothing severe.

MB

Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 13 October 2007, 01:57:50 AM
Not sure what time it was here but i remember getting woken up early hours to some very nice lightning not the closest but fairly close, and a nice 'mini' downpour that lasted for about 10 mins and the whole storm all up bout 25 mins till the lightning faded out to sea.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Stormhunt on 13 October 2007, 02:21:02 AM
Wind gusts up to 65km/hr here with 7.7mm of rain from thunderstorms after midnight. I missed the lightning because I fell asleep.

Today setup looking good, lifted index down to -7, CAPE averaging 1600 and the shear looking complex. What are you opinions for today storms anyone?

Cheers.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: David C on 13 October 2007, 04:06:30 AM
Quite unstable air above Sydney right now (10:00am) and some storms are firing over the outer south-west suburbs. I think the lower Hunter will be better positioned with perhaps some more heating going on ahead of the change. Still nice little compact cells firing at the moment are nothing to sneeze at.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: David C on 13 October 2007, 04:14:27 AM
Warning just issued: 

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 10:05 am, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Campbelltown and Minto. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect Bundeena, Engadine, the Royal National Park, waters off the Royal National Park and Waterfall by 10:35 am.

Large hailstones and damaging winds are likely.

Golf ball sized hail was reported near Camden Airport at 10 am.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: scottme on 13 October 2007, 04:39:16 AM
Another rather strong cell has just popped up over Warragamba about 10:30am, looks to be heading just south of Sydney airport.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: David Brodrick on 13 October 2007, 05:50:54 AM
Further to last night's storm in Narrabri. We had an email from a bloke in town who recorded a 113km/h gust on his Davis weather station. On my drive to work I noticed a colourbond fence blown to pieces, and a caravan had been picked up and dumped about 50m away on the western outskirts of town.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: orage on 13 October 2007, 06:09:23 AM
The storms are hopeless here. Earlier this morning we had one storm that began to develop out west of here. I have attached this photo that shows the storm before it began disintegrating over Armidale. Not soon after this, there was nothing worth taking. It only lasted half an hour or so. Just now there is another rolling in. There are a couple of rumbles, but I can't see any lightning.

EDIT: That storm passed without consequence. The seems to die over Armidale. Can anyone explain why?
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Stormhunt on 13 October 2007, 06:57:34 AM
Pretty much the activity firing up in northeast corner now. Nice updrafts out here filling some anvils on top. Hopefully some decent hail, rain and winds. I want some more daytime cg photos as well! ViSat really flaring out of here!  They seems moving very fast though. Lifted Index is -9 today.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Shaun Galman on 13 October 2007, 07:01:50 AM
Hi guys,
Looks like another interesting day of weather throughout Eastern NSW. I apologise for not posting these images earlier as I was replacing my uncles TV antenna which blew down in the maelstrom yesterday! The storm was fairly weak as far as lightning, I think we only saw 7 CG at the most, but they were right on top of us by the time the dust rolled in! The wind and dust provided interesting shooting conditions to say the least! 

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1373&g2_serialNumber=2)
The storm moving in over town from the West. The fibrous anvil had me a little dissapointed, but the structure looked more "improved" to the NW so we headed off in that direction for a few photos.
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1376&g2_serialNumber=2)
The CG were just starting here once that relatively nice base had formed infront of the rain core. We did her the familiar "Jacobs Ladder" sound emanating from the power lines 20feet behind us, time to leave!!! The next shots racing back to the car are self explanatory!
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1382&g2_serialNumber=2)
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1385&g2_serialNumber=2)
We were stuck in the car for three minutes until we could barely see enough to begin to move, CG were still firing down around us here, very worrying!
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1391&g2_serialNumber=2)
The shot above is a few minutes on and facing the opposite direction (East), still too dusty to see our way out!
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1394&g2_serialNumber=2)
The local fruit and vege man came out worse for wear in those crazy wind gusts! (looks like he's on the phone to the insurance company lol?)
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1409&g2_serialNumber=1)
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=1412&g2_serialNumber=2)
No much in the way of lightning but the sunet was a stunning after effect of an interesting day!
Cheers guys.
Shauno

Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Richary on 13 October 2007, 07:12:33 AM
Interesting, they have just cancelled the severe weather warning for Newcastle area, but the radar still has lots of nice black bits on it over the Hunter.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Stormhunt on 13 October 2007, 07:20:58 AM
Interesting, they have just cancelled the severe weather warning for Newcastle area, but the radar still has lots of nice black bits on it over the Hunter.

Sorry mate, the radar was over-estimated and it hasn't updated since 12 30pm. Storms already gone offshore anyways. Further storms has formed north of Hunter now. Northern Rivers watch out! Storms in west firing up and might bring another natural disaster? Hrmm wait and see!
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Mike on 13 October 2007, 07:45:34 AM
From looking at the Visat images and the wind profiles around Williamtown other areas affected by these storms the wind speeds are huge.  Satpics of anvils are indicative of the winds aloft - huge, huge rate of knots up there at 100+.  Michael or David, would these winds be supporting the strong updraughts creating the hail?  Also, are these storms supercellular or just 'very' pulse severe?

Mike










Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: scottme on 13 October 2007, 08:20:02 AM
Still some very intense cells over Raymond Terrace now.

The northern rivers onslaught is well underway.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Mike on 13 October 2007, 08:26:05 AM
I'm sure Michael is out that way getting as much of this action as he can.  Williamtown still has a very nasty storm moving in from the west to them - quite a nice signature on radar.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Stormhunt on 13 October 2007, 08:29:32 AM
Those cells are black cores aswell on radar, nothing compared to Newcastle radar! *surprised*
On grafton 128km radar, that cell in my path from sw, have black in it, look like in for hail, hopefully stands this way!

Ed:  No need to push the issue re wishful damage on any town.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: David C on 13 October 2007, 08:42:53 AM
From looking at the Visat images and the wind profiles around Williamtown other areas affected by these storms the wind speeds are huge.  Satpics of anvils are indicative of the winds aloft - huge, huge rate of knots up there at 100+.  Michael or David, would these winds be supporting the strong updraughts creating the hail?

I think, Mike, the storms today around central NSW are enjoying some modest-moderate CAPE and some good speed shear through the mid-levels and that is helping to promote updraft longevity and probably rotation in some of the more sustained cells. The mid- upper- levels are quite cool and cooling which of course is why hail is occurring with most storms. There were a few storms around (notwithstanding the issues with Lemon Tree Passage radar) that were quite intense and there may have been the odd supercell, but hard to say with any certainty. 


btw, should note that Paul G reported 2cm hail from a cell near Maitland and some close strikes around 2pm.

There are some 'suspect' cells further north around the border region atm. Wind-driven, medium-large hail is a concern up there over the next few hours although the speed shear is very strong, all westerly and all but the strongest updrafts will be flat out surviving for too long --- we'll see.

Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Mike on 13 October 2007, 08:52:42 AM
Thanks for that, David.  From another look at this morning's sounding in that area the front certainly has got some pace behind it, not so good for sustainability but as you mentioned, the speed shear is through the roof.  Those areas affected by large hail will certainly know it. (Probably an apt time to buy a new, but dented, vehicle from the dealerships. Could be a cheap investment on a chase vehicle - the damage is done!)

What is the scenario for the next two days storm wise, one would think with the passage of this trough that you may just get the odd pulse if the instability holds?
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 13 October 2007, 08:53:29 AM
For people in parts of the
Southeast Coast Forecast District.

Issued at 2:43 PM Friday, 12 October 2007.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 2:45 PM, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Moogerah, Cunninghams Gap, Dalveen and Oakington. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to southeast. They are forecast to affect Boonah, the area between Boonah and Beaudesert and Leyburn by 3:15 PM and Stanthorpe, Beaudesert and Tamborine by 3:45 PM.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.

Other thunderstorms are developing in the warning area and some of these may become severe

looks like the gold coast may see a little action this afternoon/evening, im hanging for some good lightning pics today it feels like its 35 here atm
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 13 October 2007, 09:26:54 AM
this is what the cell looks like atm lookes meaner than in the pics though.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: David C on 13 October 2007, 10:04:34 AM
It looks as though this strong change will thoroughly clean things out for a week or so right along the entire east coast Mike. Unlike northern NSW and QLD, here in Sydney we really have not gotten into the juicy air yet, and usually don't until November - so last night, being the first warm season storm for us, was a pleasant surprise.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Harley Pearman on 13 October 2007, 03:34:39 PM
Hello

Afternoon and evening of 11 October a cluster of thunderstorms had developed over the eastern areas of the central west slopes and plains and north west slopes. Looking at the GPATS lightning data between 3 and 4 pm there were 19,625 lightning flashes and strikes occurring from this cluster and from other cells in Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology issued a severe thunderstorm alert on the cluster of storm cells over eastern NSW for a while.

By 7 pm I was watching anvil crawler lighting from at least 4 cells sitting over the Blue Mountains. At around 8.30 pm, a narrow line of storms swept over Sydney, with the majority of the activity being over the western and northern regions.

They were not severe and rainfall was light around 2 mm on average however a more intense cell developed over Sydney city CBD producing 8 mm of rain. Majority of lightning that occurred was intra cloud however I observed 3 cloud to ground bolts and one solid bolt produced a significant amount of noise that was close by. I discovered that I cannot take lightning photos with my digital camera (Any advice here) because it is too slow.

The storms cleared the coast by 9.15 pm and they were moving relatively fast. I observed an increase in lightning flashes out to sea from the same cell later on.

12 October:

Two small thunderstorms moved across Sydney's far southern fringe between 9.30 am and 10.30 am. One was severe warned and there were reports of 4 cm hail at Camden and 2 cm hail from Heathcote.

Another torrential shower cell moved over Auburn at 1 pm although I did not hear any thunder from it. The cloud had the hallmarks of a thunderstorm cell but I did not observe lightning.

At 5.50 pm a small shower cell developed and moved over Blacktown tracking NE producing large raindrops but produced 3 lightning flashes and 3 thunderclaps before weakening.

No further activity occurred afterwards. While not on the same calibre as that in northern NSW, the weather system did produce several storm cells of varying intensity for us.


Harley Pearman

Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 14 October 2007, 11:08:36 AM
Friday 12th October

As mentioned earlier in this thread, a storm passed through 12.30 to 1am.  I woke before the storm hit so was able to set the camera up. The CGs were infrequent but a couple were quite close.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101201.jpg)

The rest of the day held some great potential but two factors conspired against a decent outbreak of severe weather in NE NSW and SE QLD. The shear was very linear with nearly all WNW winds. A bit of coastal northerlies were certainly needed. Regardless of the shear profile, there was great instability and plenty of low level moisture. The main negative was a big inversion at 350 hPa. An upper level high was stronger than anticipated and kept upper temps at ridiculously high levels.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/thumbs/2007101200moree.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007101200moree.png) Moree 00z

Still went out on chase of course ! Rodney Wallbridge and I headed out to Casino then intercepted a severe storm just south of Wiangaree (north of Kyogle). A few close CGs hit nearby just before the cell produced a microburst near us. The winds gusted to probably 90km/h. We heard - and then saw a tree fall over (though it was pretty dead looking). However, a large tree was across part of the Summerland Way as we headed back. Rain was torrential but there was no hail at our location. Well there may have been the odd small stone.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101202.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101203.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101204.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101205.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101206.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007101207.jpg)

MB
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 16 October 2007, 05:58:27 AM
We ended up with two storms hitting the gold coast on fri 12th oct in the afternoon pretty much back to back( well it seemed like 2 seperate ones i could be wrong) i posted pics up of what the first one looked like while it was developing, here are pics of what it looked like coming over. It was quite impressive from carrara, we had some heavy rain here and a couple of wind gusts which managed to down a tree nearby.

The order of the pics is basically what it looked like in stages coming over the complex.

Karina
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: james_r on 30 May 2008, 02:34:52 AM
These photos are of a storm which passed through Hervey Bay on the 12th of October. It was far less exciting than the Lismore storms, although we did get 11mm of rain in 10 mins as well as a max wind gust of 100k/hr. It was awesome watching the cloud formations just prior to the storm hitting. (the photos were taken on my phone hence the quality is average)



MB Edit - moved your post to this thread and resized the pics.
Title: Re: NSW/QLD storms 11-12 October 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 30 May 2008, 03:03:58 AM
Beautiful laminar structure to that shelf cloud James. Not surprising you copped some severe wind gusts from it.

Regards, Michael