Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => General Weather - all topics not current severe weather. => Topic started by: Harley Pearman on 22 August 2009, 03:59:18 PM
-
Warmer than normal spring expected for 2009
I have been looking at and plotting likely temperature anomalies using the new CSIRO POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia) program for the months of September, October and November. This tool while still in the experimental stage has been made available for research purposes for predicting rainfall and temperature patterns for Australia and it is still being tested. When generating temperature plots for September to November it appears that a warmer than normal spring is likely. In particular for New South Wales:-
- The three month average seasonal maximum temperature anomaly is suggested as being 1.5C above average across the central and northern inland areas of the state and largely 0.5C to 1C above average elsewhere.
- The three month average seasonal minimum temperature anomaly is suggested as being 2C above the average for North East New South Wales and 1.5C above average elsewhere.
The POAMA plots (Computer program developed by the CSIRO) are set to the Hindcast dates 1980-2006 for average temperatures and Lead Times set to 1 Month, 2 Months and 3 Months being September, October and November with the day set to 01 being the first day of each month.
September - The model ensemble suggests that Eastern New South Wales will have maximum daytime temperatures of 1C above the average. The model ensemble suggests that North East New South Wales will have maximum daytime temperatures of up to 1.5C above the average.
October - The model ensemble suggests that large areas of the state will experience maximum daytime temperatures of up to 1C above the average. The model ensemble suggests that coastal areas will have maximum daytime temperatures of 0.5C to 1C above the average.
November - The model ensemble suggests that North East and Eastern New South Wales will have maximum daytime temperatures of up to 0.5C above the average.
The POAMA temperature plots as discussed above are attached below and feel free to describe any significant spring hot weather event that may occur.
Harley Pearman
-
If yesterdays late winter temperatures are anything to go by, QLD might just completely bypass spring and go straight to summer. SEQ temps after today, for the remaining week of August, are that of late spring temps. A couple of cool nights are on the cards and then that is it for us. It appeared with May and June we were off to a cold winter, then it just fizzled out then the heat came. So now we look forward to a warmer than normal Spring. ( probably hot for SEQ)
Be intersting to see all the stats as you present them Harley. You do an excellent job with them, and it helps me to gain an understanding what is happening statistically. Sometimes you hear people say "it seems it has beeen a hotter year", or a "wetter summer" etc etc etc, but to have the facts in front of you and to be able to say "yes or no" and able to explain "why", is brilliant! Thanks
Late Edit: Haydon Walkers prediction for SEQ Spring,
A long-range weather forecaster predicts a warm to hot spring in the south-east, and plenty of storm rains in November.
Forecaster Haydon Walker says he predicted the cyclones earlier this year but was not expecting yesterday's record winter temperatures.
Mr Walker says spring will see temperatures in the 30s.
"With the storm rains I'm predicting in November, it's going to be quiet sticky I think with the humidity factor, with some really good storm rains for the south-east in that period building from October into November," he said.
"With the humidity I think it's going to be quiet sticky and uncomfortable."
Col
Edit JD: For those who are not aware, Haydon Walker uses the sunspot behaviour for his forecasts.
-
It really would not surprise me at all these warm temperatures seem to be here allot more often compared to last year this time. Although maybe these warmer temps will bring storms???
Storm boy – preparing the camera for the season ahead ;-)
-
Sydney - Warmest region in New South Wales for 4/9/2009
Unusual, Western Sydney including Penrith and Liverpool as well as Batemans Bay (New South Wales South Coast) and Kempsey (New South Wales Mid North Coast) recorded the warmest maximum temperatures in New South Wales of 26C for 4/9/2009. That is well above the long term averages of between 21C - 22C for September across Sydney (Source BOM Weather Stations for 4/9/2009).
If anything, the Sydney region was the warmest region to be in New South Wales for the day.
Harley Pearman
-
First 30C temperatures for the season in South West New South Wales and Victoria 12/9/2009
Maximum temperatures have been forecast to reach 30C across some inland areas of New South Wales and Northern Victoria for 12 and 13 September 2009 as well as for the Sydney region.
The first 30C temperatures for the spring / summer season as at 12.15 pm 12/9/2009 have occurred at Deniliquin, Swan Hill and Hay in Southern and South Western New South Wales and Northern Victoria. Hence this is the first significant warm day for south west New South and Northern Victoria for the season.
With 30C temperatures predicted for Sydney both Saturday and Sunday it is already warming up across the city with temperatures reaching 27C and 28C as at 12.15 pm across parts of the city away from the coast. If as expected temperatures reach 30C for Western Sydney this would be the first 30C day for the spring / summer period for the city (Source BOM Weather Stations as at 12.15 pm 12/9/2009).
Harley Pearman
-
A warm weekend across South East Australia 12/13 September 2009
Much of far Western and South Western New South Wales recorded 30C maximum temperatures for 12/9/2009 with the highest being 33C at Hay, Pooncarie, Ivanhoe and surrounds. Further, 30C plus temperatures also penetrated into Victoria including 34C at Mildura and 31C at Yarrawonga (All figures checked from various weather stations for 12/9/2009). Melbourne also experienced 29.9C which is unseasonal.
However 30C maximum temperatures also reached into areas that do not always see them such as Green Cape 30.3C and Merimbula 31C. It reached 32C at Bega and 30.1C at Ulludulla on the New South Wales South Coast.
Most of Sydney recorded 30C temperatures for the day including 31C at Parramatta and 31.4C at Penrith.
Currently Sunday 13 September 2009, most of Sydney is enjoying a second day in a row of 30C temperatures including 32.2C in Sydney (BOM 2.06 PM) and 32.6C at Penrith (BOM 1.07pm), all well above the September average. I took my Scientific Oregon weather station Model BAR916HG to Bella Vista and between 1.07 pm and 1.40 pm the temperature in the shade was fluctuating between 30.7C and 31.4C which is reasonably close to what was happening elsewhere across Sydney. I did note that the humidity levels on my device was showing 18% which is quite low for the same time period.
It has been a warm weekend across large areas of South East Australia with maximum temperatures being well above the average.
Harley Pearman
-
As Harley mentioned in the previous post, Melbourne city recorded 29.9C, which is a new record for the hottest day for first half of September, the city's record for September is 31.4C on the 28th September 1928.
Col
-
Yes only 12 degrees above average for Sydney today. Though back closer to normality tomorrow with 23 forecast.
A friend interstate asked me if that meant storms (obviously not tonight). But that has led me to think that despite the warm temps that may continue into summer will this in fact be a poor storm season? My reasoning being that NSW is so dry at the moment there will be a lack of moisture from evaporation west of here to give rise to good storms? Or does the moisture come from elsewhere (higher level systems being blown across from SA etc).
Though if lack of moisture west is a problem in storm formation, one decent dump could change that then the moisture becomes self perpetuating.
-
3rd 30C day for September - Sydney 17/9/2009
For the third time this month being September 2009, maximum temperatures across Sydney exceeded 30C. Maximum temperatures fell within a narrow range of 32C to 33C except at Terrey Hills where it was a little cooler on 30C. The maximum temperatures were at least 11C above the long term average and occurred on a day where day break was greeted with morning fog.
Maximum temperatures across New South Wales on the same day (Figures are for 3 pm BOM Weather Stations 17/9/2009) include 36C at Brewarrina (Hottest locality), 35C at Walgett, 34C at Bourke and Nyngan and 33C at Collarenebri, in North West New South Wales. It was also warm across the Hunter Valley (Between 25C and 32C) and it reached 31C at Batemans Bay on the New South Wales South Coast.
Interestingly Armidale at 980 metres in elevation and Glenn Innes at 1,069 metres in elevation on the New South Wales Northern Tablelands both reached 25C which was 7C warmer than the maximum of 18C that occurred at Broken Hill and Pooncarie in far western and south western New South Wales thanks to cloud and or light rain occurring in that area of the state.
Harley Pearman
-
4th 30C day for September - Sydney
Currently maximum temperatures for September are tracking well above the average for Sydney and suburbs thanks to some rather warm days. Prior to the evening thunderstorm of 22/9/2009, maximum temperatures for Sydney topped between 30C and 32C again for the city. This is the 4th such day for September in which maximum temperatures have reached 30C or more across Western Sydney.
In addition, maximum temperatures where I live in Blacktown topped out at 29.5C on 20/9/2009 and 29.5C on 23/9/2009 as well as the 31.5C on 22/9/2009. Further overnight minimum temperature for Blacktown 25/9/2009 was 18C. (Weatherzone)
Despite the occasional cool day, the trend for September 2009 is one in which average temperatures will be well above the long term average.
Harley Pearman
-
September 2009 - Maximum and minimum temperature review - New South Wales only
Sydney
The month of September was very warm across the city and generally temperatures were mostly above average night and day. There were 4 days in Blacktown in which maximum temperatures reached 30C which is above average. The figures for 6 selected locations across the city are stated below with data obtained from weather stations via Weatherzone:-
Suburb Av Max Av Min Normal Av Max Normal Av Min
Bankstown 23.5C 9.5C 21.5C 8.7C
Campbelltown 23.4C 8C 21.8C 6.7C
Parramatta 23.8C 10.7C 21.5C 9.3C
Penrith 24.9C 9.3C 23.1C 9.5C
Prospect 24C 11.5C 21.2C 9.3C
Sydney 23.1C 13.5C 19.9C 11C
Maximum temperature anomaly (NSW only)
The maximum temperature anomaly plot shows that Sydney experienced maximum daytime temperature anomalies that were generally 2C to 3C above average for the month. Additionally the Hunter Valley and the Mid North Coast experienced maximum daytime temperature anomalies of 3C to 4C above average for the month. Maximum temperature anomalies across the remainder of the state except for a small portion in South East New South Wales along the Murray River and a tiny area in Northern New South Wales were 1C to 3C above average for the month. The temperature anomaly in that South East portion along the Murray River and that Northern area of the state varied from 0C being average to 1C above average. Generally, the month of September across New South Wales with a small exception was warmer than normal.
Minimum temperature anomaly (NSW only)
The minimum temperature anomaly plot shows that South East New South Wales including Sydney and North West New South Wales experienced minimum temperature anomalies of 1C to 2C above average. Additionally, South West New South Wales, a portion of the Mid North Coast and the Northern inland of New South Wales experienced minimum temperatures that were 0C to 1C below average. The rest of the state experienced temperatures that were 0C to 1C above average. Hence excluding the south west, a portion of the Mid North Coast and parts of the northern inland, minimum night temperatures elsewhere were above average.
The plots described above with reference to New South Wales are attached below. They have been generated from the Bureau of Meteorology "Land and Water Site" specific for temperatures and dated 3/10/2009.
Harley Pearman
-
Warm weather returns to Western Sydney 21/10/2009
The warm weather has finally returned following a respite. Since October 1 2009, there were 11 days in a row in which the maximum temperature failed to the reach the monthly average for Blacktown. That period lasted from 2/10/09 to 12/10/09. It reached a maximum of 24.6C on 13 October before maximum temperatures dipped slightly again for 5 more days. Then on 20 and 21 October, maximum temperatures soared past 30C for 2 days in a row.
(Source Weatherzone - Prospect Weather Station daily weather records).
The inland suburbs of Sydney away from the coast also experienced 2 days in a row of 30C temperatures.
It reached 31.2C on the 20 October and the 3pm BOM record for 21/10/09 shows that the temperature was 34C at Prospect / Blacktown.
Nightime average temperatures for October are currently above average by 1.2C at Blacktown but as at 20/10/09 maximum daily temperatures were still 1.8C below average. This recent warmth should change that.
Of interest maximum temperatures reached between 33C and 36C across Sydney for 21/10/09 being the 3 PM BOM readings. Penrith was the hottest suburb with Terrey Hills being the coolest. The highest temperatures across New South Wales for the day were Tibooburra where it reached 38C followed by 37C at Bourke, Brewarrina and Ivanhoe. Large areas of New South Wales also experienced a warm day with maximum temperatures soaring into the 30s.
Harley Pearman
-
October 2009 weather review for Sydney
After a promising start on the 1/10/2009 in which maximum temperatures soared to 33C across Western Sydney, a cool change on the 2nd and a much stronger cold change on the 3rd heralded the beginning of a protracted spell of cool or wet weather across the city. The spell of cool temperatures did not lift until 13 October. Maximum temperatures did not reach 30C again until 20 and 21 and again on the 23 across Western Sydney. It did reach 30C at Penrith on the 30th giving that locality 5 days where the maximum temperatures reached 30C for the month.
There were only 4 days in which maximum temperatures reached 30C where I live and here in Blacktown, maximum temperatures reached or exceeded the average on only 11 days. Further, there were 8 days in which the maximum temperature failed to reach 20C at Blacktown.
Maximum daily temperatures were below average right across Sydney for the month which went against the expected forecast models as suggested by POAMA. In some areas across Sydney, night time minimum temperatures were a little above average but below average in other areas.
The month of October is a stark contrast to September. The wind direction, cloud cover and rainfall had a significant impact on daily average temperature conditions. There was 180 mm of rain at Observatory Hill (Sydney) and 101.7 mm at Blacktown. Other areas across the city had high rainfall totals as well. The average temperature conditions at seven selected weather stations across Sydney are shown below with all details from the various weather stations via Weatherzone.
Suburb name Av Max Av Main Normal Av Max Normal Av Min
Bankstown 22.2C 12.1C 23.4C 11.8C
Campbelltown 22.9C 10.2C 24.1C 9.9C
Parramatta 22.3C 12C 23.9C 12C
Penrith 24.4C 11.9C 25.8C 12.1C
Prospect 23C 12.4C 23.7C 12.1C
Richmond 23.2C 11.1C 25.1C 11C
Sydney 21.4C 14.1C 22.1C 13.6C
Harley Pearman
-
October 2009 weather review for New South Wales
The plot below has been generated from "Water and the Land" - Bureau of Meteorology 3/11/2009 for maximum temperature anomalies for the month of October.
Generally, maximum daily temperatures were below average for the South East region and North West region of New South Wales. Only the inland central regions, Hunter Valley and north east experienced maximum daily temperatures that were at least average or 1C to 2C above average.
Additionally night time minimum temperatures ranged from below average to just average for the month across the whole of the state.
Hence it is concluded that maximum and minimum temperatures for the month of October did not fully follow the predictions as suggested by the POAMA models of a warmer than normal month.
Harley Pearman
-
Maximum temperatures for 3 November 2009 for Sydney
Sydney today has experienced its hottest day since 8 February 2009. Maximum temperatures soared to 38C and 39C in many areas of the city including:-
Campbelltown - 38.3C at 2.56 pm.
Penrith - 39.2C at 2.40 pm.
Sydney Olympic Park - 38.9C at 3.29 pm.
Sydney Airport - 39.2C at 3.43 pm.
(Source Bureau of Meteorology Weather Stations)
At Blacktown the maximum temperature reached 30.8C on the 1 and 38C on the 3 and so far it has been a warm start to the month. There is a southerly change on the New South Wales South Coast moving north along the coast and it will be a big contrast for the 4 November with temperatures in the low 20s, cloudy and a cool onshore wind present.
Harley Pearman
-
Hot conditions for parts of Victoria 11 to 14 November 2009
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting maximum temperatures of between 40C and 43C for Mildura between 11 and 14 November and 40C to 42C for Swan Hill for the period 12 to 14 November. In addition, places like Albury Wodonga, Wangaratta, Shepparton, Echuca and other centres across the northern plains of the state are forecast to receive hot conditions as well with temperatures of between 35C and 39C expected for the period.
This is unusually warm for November.
Maximum temperatures were between 35C to 36C across the Mallee / Wimmera region of the state 9/11/09 at 3 pm while other centres enjoyed temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Harley Pearman
-
More hot November weather for Victoria 10/11/2009
Very warm to hot conditions prevailed again over large areas of the state of Victoria and South West New South Wales. In particular, maximum temperatures for the day include:-
Albury Wodonga - 35C, Kerang - 37.9C, Melbourne - 36.3C, Mildura - 38.5C and Yarrawonga - 37.3C.
Even in south west New South Wales, maximum temperatures peaked at 38C or 39C in a few localities.
North West Victoria is expected to swelter in 40C temperatures until the close of Saturday with an expected cool change on Sunday. The Bureau of Meteorology is still forecasting 40C tomorrow for Mildura and is still forecasting 40C to 43C temperatures here for the next four days.
Other centres across the north of the state including Bendigo, Kerang, Shepparton and Wangaratta are forecast to have maximum temperatures of between 36C and 39C sometime during the next four days.
With the high temperatures, I have been reading various reports of a few bushfires burning, rising fire dangers and the rapid drying of grass and bushland areas outside the towns and cities.
Harley Pearman
-
Hot November weather across Victoria and parts of NSW - 11/11/2009
Hot to very hot conditions have prevailed across inland South West New South Wales and Northern and North West Victoria again. For November, some places have experienced the first 40C day of the season including Mildura, Ouyen and Swan Hill. Maximum temperatures here were around the 40C to 41C for the 3 pm official readings. (BOM Weather Stations and data bases checked)
Kerang also topped 41C, Nhill 39C and Bendigo and Yarrawonga had reached 38C by 3 pm. It reached 36C at Albury Wodonga and Melbourne again topped 33C.
Balranald and Pooncarrie in South West New South Wales topped the state on 42C.
Hot conditions are expected again at Mildura where another day of 40C temperatures are forecast for 12/11/09.
It has even been hot in Adelaide with 39C maximum temperatures occurring or forecast.
It is also expected to warm up across Western Sydney for 12/11/09 with peak temperatures of between 32 and 35C expected.
Harley Pearman
-
I see Adelaide is now expecting the continuation of a heatwave that started last Sunday to last until next Sunday - a total of 8 days in a row with temperatures over 35 degrees. And it's only November.
-
We got up to 38.6 degrees yesterday and have a forecast for daily temps to reach 38-39 until Tuesday when it should still get to 34. A very hot five days coming up for us.
-
Hot conditions for 12 November 2009
Hot to very hot conditions prevailed across the same regions of New South Wales and Victoria today.
At 3 pm temperatures at selected centres include:-
Mildura and Swan Hill - 41C. Walpeup had reached 42C. Temperatures of 40C to 42C was common across the Mallee region of the state. Nhill had reached 39C. Places across the Northern Country had reached between 38C and 40C including Echuca, Shepparton and Yarrawonga. It was a little cooler at Bendigo on 35C. Melbourne reached 32C.
In South West New South Wales, a temperature of 44C was recorded at 3 pm at Ivanhoe, 43C at Pooncarie and Wilcania and 41C at Balranald and Broken Hill. It even reached 40C at Wagga Wagga and the Central West experienced peak temperatures of between 37C and 39C. Some of the heat reached into Western Sydney before the cooler change with peak temperatures of between 35C and 38.4C occurring. Penrith was the hottest locality within the Sydney region.
Of interest if one wanted to escape the heat, Green Cape on the far South Coast only reached 22C due to the southerly change which is a significant contrast occurring elsewhere across the state.
Harley Pearman
-
More hot conditions for 13/11/2009
The hot weather eased over much of Victoria for 13/11/2009 although it was still warm across the northern and north west regions of the state. The warmest localities were Mildura and Walpeup where it reached 37C for the day. Across the north of the state, peak temperatures hovered between 32C and 36C for the 3 pm readings.
However in New South Wales, hot to very hot conditions prevailed across the west and far west of the state. In particular, temperatures had reached 41C at Fowlers Gap and 40C at Bourke at 3 pm. It was 39C at Balranald.
It was 39C at Adelaide in South Australia.
Today and tomorrow, peak temperatures are forecast to reach 40C at Mildura and 40C and 38C at Swan Hill in North West Victoria.
Of interest 16/11/2009 being a Monday is also expected to be warm again across Western Sydney with peak temperatures expected to reach up to 38C.
Harley Pearman
-
Heat continues across inland South East Australia 15/11/2009
The hot November weather conditions across inland South East Australia continues. Across inland New South Wales, peak temperatures at 3 pm include:-
Far West - 39C to 43C with Ivanhoe being the hottest place.
North West - 35C to 40C with Forbes being amongst the hottest places.
Riverina - 36C to 42C.
(Source BOM weather station data 3 pm for 15/11/2009).
The coast and ranges of New South Wales missed out due to the effects of another weak southerly change although it is expected to warm up across Western Sydney for 16/11/09 before another southerly change late in the afternoon.
Across Victoria, relief from the heat has occurred in the south but the north of the state continues to experience summertime temperatures. Across the North West, the 3 pm temperatures were around 40C to 41C at various localities. Localities situated across the Northern Country were experiencing temperatures of between 34C to 38C again.
Of interest, since the beginning of November, the regional city of Mildura in North West Victoria has experienced 5 days this month, 1 to 15 November where the maximum temperature has reached or exceeded 40C. So far this month, 1 - 14 November, the average daily maximum temperature for Mildura is currently 34.7C. (Source BOM Weather Station data 15/11/09).
At Swan Hill, it has reached 40C on 3 days this month during the same period.
Further, Melbourne City recently experienced 5 days in a row of 30C temperatures from 7 to 11 November.
Many places across the north of the state such as Albury Wodonga, Echuca, Mildura, Shepparton and Swan Hill have average daily maximum temperatures exceeding 30C so far this month. (Source BOM Weather station data 1 to 14 November).
It appears that a more significant change late in the week will see relief from the heat right across the state although not before more hot weather and 40C temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.
Harley Pearman
-
Hi guys,
Definitely some crazy temps around the place!
We've been in the low 40's for a few days now and looks to be continuing until the weekend. Yesterday (16th Nov. 2009) it reached 42.4˚c on my thermometers around 3:30pm EDT. Some partial thundery cells and tiny hail came through by 6:30pm EDT.
Today (17th Nov. 2009) it was 38˚c by 10am EDT. Currently at the Ridge the temperature is stable at 43˚c. Isolated storms are on the cards so I'm looking forward to some electrical severity as is usual out here in these temps driving the convection.
Take care and try to keep cool!
Shauno.
-
Media release just posted by BoM regarding NSW...
Wednesday 18 November 2009
Significant Weather Media Release
Excessive Heat across NSW
The heatwave affecting southern and western parts of NSW will extend eastward and peak over the next few days as hot northerly winds persist over southeast Australia.
Very hot conditions will affect most of the state with daytime temperatures reaching into the forties. Only the coastal fringe, where sea breezes prevail, will escape the worst of the heat.
A weak change will enter the southwest of the state on Saturday bringing cloud, showers and near average temperatures to southern and western parts. However the hot conditions will persist over the remainder of the State into the early part of next week.
Severe to Extreme fire weather conditions are expected across inland parts of NSW including the ACT and possibly extending into the Hunter Valley on Friday and Western Sydney on Saturday.
NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said, "Given the dry conditions in many parts of the state and erratic fire behaviour we have seen in the last week, I have concerns about fires taking hold quickly and being difficult to control.
Residents of NSW need to be prepared for bush fires. Fires in these conditions will move rapidly and may threaten without warning. It is important that new outbreaks of fire are reported to Triple Zero (000) immediately."
New daily maximum temperature records for November have already been set at Wilcannia (45.2ºC) and Broken Hill (43.4ºC) on 16 November. Many stations across NSW are likely to set new November daily maximum temperature records over the next two days, Griffith and Cobar are both forecast to exceed their record temperatures on Thursday with temperatures of 45ºC. Broken Hill is likely to smash it's very recent record, set Tuesday, with 45ºC forecast for Thursday.
In addition to daily temperature records many sites across southwestern NSW are now setting records for a consecutive number of very hot days in November. Locations such as Hay, Deniliquin and Balranald have now experienced a record 8 days in a row above 35ºC. Broken Hill has set a record of 9 consecutive days over 35ºC and 6 consecutive days over 38ºC. With high temperatures forecast to persist in this region until at least Saturday these records are likely to be significantly extended.
-
November heat continues
I was in Canberra on Monday and again Wednesday and noted how dry it was there. Given the lack of rain and the high temperatures, fires are a real possibility for the Canberra region. It reached 34C in Canberra Monday afternoon as hot NW winds prevailed which was well above the average for the month.
I have been looking at some monthly average November temperatures for some localities across South West New South Wales using the Bureau of Meteorology weather station sites and some are remarkable for the month as shown. All temperatures are well above the November average. All the places mentioned have experienced 11 to 13 consecutive days in a row where the maximum daily temperature has reached 30C or higher to 18/11/09.
Locality Average daily maximum temperature 1 - 18 November 2009.
Albury Airport 31.8C
Balranald 35.3C
Broken Hill 35.4C
Griffith 35C
Hay 35.2C
Wagga Wagga 34.1C.
On 18/11/09, it reached 45C at Tibooburra and Wanaaring in North West New South Wales and 44C at Broken Hill.
A cool change change will progress slowly across the state on Saturday / Sunday bringing relief and maybe some shower / storm / rain activity.
Harley Pearman
-
Weather review for 19/11/2009
The 3 pm Bureau of Meteorology weather station readings for 19/11/2009 for various sites and localities include:-
Far West New South Wales 41C to 46C being recorded at various towns. A reading of 45.7C at Bourke Airport has broken a peak temperature record for November that was set on 30 November 1936 of 45.6C (Source - BOM 19/11/2009 Daily Weather Review).
- Central West New South Wales - Maximum temperatures of 39C to 42C being recorded at various towns.
- Riverina - Maximum temperatures of 40C to 42C being recorded at various towns.
- South West slopes - Maximum temperatures of 32C to 41C being recorded. They include 40C at Albury Airport, the first such 40C day this season and 41C at Wagga Wagga. After today, a slow moving cooler change should bring some shower / rain / storm activity across this region ending the current hot spell.
- Western Sydney - Penrith and Richmond had reached 38C and Badgereys Creek 37C.
Interesting Sydney Observatory Hill at 3 pm had the coldest temperature reading at 3 pm of all the Australian capital cities being 26C. Position and effect of the sea breeze has kept the maximum temperature down. Even Hobart reached 31C at 3 pm 19/11/2009. Of interest, Green Cape on the far South Coast recorded 21C at 3 pm and hence this is the location to be to escape the heat.
I have generated the "Maximum Temperature Anomaly Plot" for the week ending 17 November 2009 to show what has been happening across South Eastern Australia from the Bureau of Meteorology site "Water and The Land". It shows that much of Victoria, inland New South Wales and South Australia has been experiencing temperature anomalies of some 6C above the normal November average for the past week. Even Canberra being elevated at 630 metres above sea level has been experiencing the same conditions. Only the New South Wales east coast and Southern Victoria has escaped the worst of the heat.
Harley Pearman
-
Yesterday our peak temperature hit 41.2 degrees celcius at 6pm. There was much raised dust in the air and the sky remained red until about 5pm. When the dust cleared the temperature soared.
Today is very similar with a lot of raised dust in the air again. Current temp is 39.6 and it is only 12.35pm.
We are eagerly anticipating the cooler change that is supposed to come through later this afternoon/evening with showers and storms.
The fire danger (fire weather warning) for the Riverina today is Catastrophic 100+ which is not good news with the storm forecast.
-
Heat reaches Western Sydney 20/11/2009
The cool change is now starting to be felt across Southern New South Wales with a significant band of cloud, some showers / rain / storms and dust storms as observed by Kristy. It will be cooler there tomorrow.
At Albury Airport, the peak temperature was 37.9C at 2 pm. However further north, it reached 40.8C at Wagga Wagga at 12.53 pm (Source BOM Weather Station data 20/11/09). Further north and away from southern New South Wales, high temperatures continued again and it was still 41C at Dubbo in Central West New South Wales near 6 pm.
The heat arrived into Western Sydney with Blacktown reaching 40.6C prior to the mid afternoon thunderstorm, Liverpool 41.4C, Parramatta 39.2C and Penrith 42.1C. Hence this was the first 40C day for the season for western Sydney. It was cooler on the coastal fringe.
Saturday will still be warm for Western Sydney with one more hot day forecast for Sunday for Sydney before an end to the current warm spell.
Harley Pearman
-
Here my closest weather station at Olympic Park went down to 31.0 at 10pm, now showing 32.6 since the hot northerly wind fired up. I suspect the forecast minimum of 23 at Parramatta is unlikely unless the southerly forecast for dawn drops things quite late in the overnight period.
We had storms that didn't really cool it down, now a hot wind change. Glad the aircon is on feeding the bedroom!
-
40C Temperatures for Sydney 22/11/09
For the second time in 3 days, 40C maximum temperatures reached into the Sydney basin. Following on from Fridays heat as well as 32C to 37C on 21/11/09 across Western Sydney, today 22/11/09 saw 40C temperatures spread across most of Sydney. The peak temperatures that occurred were well above the November average.
Maximum temperatures for the day is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology weather station data bases and include:-
Campbelltown - 41C.
Penrith 42.1C (Second 42C day in 3 days here).
Richmond - 41.4C.
Sydney Airport - 42.5C.
Sydney Observatory Hill - 40.4C.
Sydney Olympic Park - 42.4C.
In addition I took the photograph of the sky from where I live looking North East mid afternoon. It shows the colour of the sky during the hottest part of the day. In particular the sky over Western Sydney is a white colour. While some high cirrus cloud is evident, smoke from bushfires, dust and heat haze created a situation where the sky turned white, even a light brown colour for much of the afternoon. It made for unpleasant conditions. I did note that towards evening the winds turned to a more westerly direction which cleared away some of the bushfire smoke hanging across the region.
Harley Pearman
-
What was unusual as well for Sydney was that Sydney Airport top scored today beating locations further west. I was working on putting up an antenna mast for a friend today and it was hot work today including the ladder and running cables under the house.
Some of the spots the change has already hit have showed some very quick temperature drops so I hope some cooling is left in it by the time it gets to Sydney. Moruya airport as an example dropped from 32.4 at 8pm to 23.9 at 8:12 and by 9pm down to 19.5.
-
A warmer than normal November / A warmer than normal spring did occur for 2009
Sydney
A full account of average temperatures for some weather stations is produced and attached below. I have combined data from the various weather stations around the city (From Weatherzone and Bureau of Meteorology) to provide a more comprehensive account of temperature conditions for the city for the month. The inland suburbs of the city experienced a very warm November characterised by a high number of 30 degree days. The coastal fringe was spared much of the heat. The details are contained in the first attachment below.
November temperature anomalies (Maximum temperatures)
The entire state of New South Wales and Victoria experienced a very warm, even a hot November characterized by some hot to very hot conditions. The worst affected areas were the inland areas of both states where daytime temperatures were an incredible 5-6C above the long term average for some areas. Generally for New South Wales, only the North East coast of the state was spared the worst of the heat. The plot showing this produced on the Bureau of Meteorology "Water and the Land" site is provided below.
November temperature anomalies (Minimum temperatures)
The inland part of New South Wales experienced minimum November temperature anomalies that were 4-6C above the long term average and warmer than normal nights were a feature. The state of Victoria was also affected by the November warmth and only the coastal areas escaped the worst of it.
The coastal areas of New South Wales generally had minimum temperatures that were 2-3C above the long term average.
The plot showing this produced on the Bureau of Meteorology "Water and the Land" site is provided below.
Spring Temperature anomalies (Maximum)
The whole state of New South Wales and Victoria experienced a warmer than normal spring when maximum temperatures are averaged out. The POAMA models were successful in predicting a warmer than normal spring for maximum temperatures. In particular:-
- The majority of the state of New South Wales experienced maximum temperatures that were 2-3C above the normal long term average.
- Some inland areas mainly along the slopes (South West slopes and Central West slopes) experienced maximum temperatures that were 3-4C above the long term average.
-Northern Victoria mainly north of the Great Dividing Range experienced daytime temperatures that were 2-3C above the long term average.
- Southern Victoria mainly south of the Great Dividing range experienced daytime temperatures that were 1-2C above the long term average.
Spring Temperature anomalies (Minimum)
Overall the POAMA models were successful in predicting a warmer than normal spring for minimum temperatures. When the minimum average temperatures for September to November are averaged out and plotted it is found that:-
- The majority of the state of New South Wales experienced minimum temperatures of 1-2C above the long term average.
- Some inland areas of the state experienced minimum temperatures that were 2-3C above the long term average.
- The North East coastal areas of the state experienced minimum temperatures that were 0-1C above the long term average.
Harley Pearman