Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Bath on 07 June 2007, 02:30:11 AM
-
This rainfall event for SE QLD and NE NSW was forecast on the extended GFS charts for two weeks and even the long-range forecast based on the long wave trough (LWT) positions picked it up three or four weeks ago.
A very large slow moving high has anchoring in the Bight. An upper cold pool has drifted north over Victoria and into NSW and has helped to trigger a rain band over Queensland and induce a surface trough and low off the Queensland coast overnight.
Model output has been confused about where a surface coastal low would form, but all now seem to be tipping the development of a fairly intense east coast low moving down the NSW coastline. Locally moderate to heavy rainfalls can be expected over SE Queensland and along the NSW coast to the Hunter.
Another interesting aspect of this event is how cold the upper cold pool is. Snowfalls and sleet are distinct possibilities along the Northern Tablelands and even into the Granite Belt of SE QLD Friday and Saturday morning.
Michael
-
News just in:
...at 2:10pm, yesterday, I sighted a twister that lasted a few minutes...I
was at the corner of Barton St and The Grand Pde Monterey, my line of sight
was across Botany Bay with twister lined up 1 km outside Botany Bay heads,
moving slowly in northerly direction, cloud in that region was moderate,
white with grey and yellow speckles, the funnel cloud was a darker grey,
there was some precipitation behind the twister (southern side), twister had
good contrast, long, thin in shape with large, forward s shape at one stage
(with bottom half leading and base of cloud trailing), I could not tell if
water was sucked up - too far for eye to resolve, unfortunately, I did not
have a camera as it would have been a classic photo shot showing sky, clouds
in distance, twister and cargo shop lined up between the heads.....
hope this sighting is of use for your archives...
Nick Siafakas.
-
Sydney: Saw some very nice lightning cracking thunder this morning while heading to work around 6:50am to 7:40am - very bright, thick CG bolts along with some heavy falls. MLAPS is suggesting there will be some excellent totals Hunter down to Sydney tomorrow including some of the catchments and extending to the central west.
-
Some decent snow accumulations are increasingly looking likely for the northern half of the Northern Tablelands and Mt Kaputar near Narrabri during Friday and Friday night / Saturday morning. The snow level is getting down to 1000 metres with 850 temps forecast to be -2 over a large areas. The moisture profile is very encouraging.
Might finally get a decent NT snow chase in ! Will be heading up tomorrow arvo if it still looks good. Satpic this afternoon is certainly encouraging.
-
Some decent snow accumulations are increasingly looking likely for the northern half of the Northern Tablelands and Mt Kaputar near Narrabri during Friday and Friday night / Saturday morning. The snow level is getting down to 1000 metres with 850 temps forecast to be -2 over a large areas. The moisture profile is very encouraging.
Might finally get a decent NT snow chase in ! Will be heading up tomorrow arvo if it still looks good. Satpic this afternoon is certainly encouraging.
Hi Michael !!! ;D
Certainly looking good at this stage for a decent NT chase. I'll be be u with my bros most likely leaving late arvo so probably arriving in the snow :D :D Satpic is awesome atm :D About time something good happens up on the NT...hope it stays lke this :D
-
Yes it certainly looks decent for some snowfalls on the Northern Tablelands this weekend - mainly Friday.
David, the storms were a little surprise package with the odd flash and thunder this morning. We have had consistent rain throughout the day and as I type, more rain falling. This evening and tonight has been intermittent activity though. The main cloud band cleared this afternoon replaced by convective bursts of rainfall. Some instability anticipated for the next couple of days.
Rune would be happy - thought I would get a call from you buddy!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Still looking good on the latest charts. Pity there are NO 12z soundings available - hopeless. I'll be heading up with Rodney leaving here about 4pm.
GFS output from 2007/06/07 12z run + 30 hours
-
Hi Michael n Jimmy
Oh the charts look good. I dont know why the BOM (NSW) has removed the sheep graziers warning for the Northern Tablelands. It has been somewhat degraded...though i like the -2 min forecasted for Armidale ;D
If it all looks good my brothers and I will be leaving late this afternoon ( after my brother finishes work), so could be arriving in snow :o ... i'll be calling the Guyra Ampol later once i see the temp drop at the Armidale AP :D to check if there is any sleet or snow ;D
-
3.5 C and raining at Glen Innes Ap on the 7am obs - that is close to snow already and probably is on the nearby hills. I cannot understand why the BoM has no mention of snow in any forecasts.
-
Hi Michael !!
i know 3.5 c...could be sleet / snow showers at Ben Lomond. I am really confused about the NSW BOM....to bad for the sheep atm at Ben Lomond brrr ;D I just read AC's post mentioning plenty of moisture in WZF
currently Glen Innes AP at 10am 3.0c
Armidale AP at 10am 3.6c
Guyra i'd expect to be around :o 2 maybe 1c even
-
Hi Sam, and still only 3.5 at Armidale at 1pm - though dry at this stage.
Latest TWC output indicates good falls of snow between Armidale and into the Granite Belt of S QLD. Since I've been watching snow events over the years, this is the best forecast I've seen. QLD/NSW border area looks this best this late evening followed by the rest of the Northern Tablelands except the far southern parts Sat am.
The Moree sounding this morning is the coldest I've seen !
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007060800moree.png
Some pretty wild weather going on in the Hunter with flooding through the Valley, and ships run aground by waves measured to 17 metres offshore.
Tocal had 105mm between 10am and noon
-
I don't normally criticise the BoM forecasts but this is a joke issued at 1pm today. How is it going to get to 10 today ? Where is the snow mention. Radio reports it is snowing at Armidale right now. No sheep gazier alert. Hopeless
NORTHERN TABLELANDS
Warning summary
Forecast for Friday
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Light to moderate west to northwest winds.
Armidale: A few showers. Max: 10
Glen Innes: A few showers. Max: 10
Inverell: A few showers. Max: 12
Forecast for Saturday
Scattered showers. Moderate to fresh westerly winds.
Armidale: A few showers. Min: -2 Max: 11
-
Hi Sam, and still only 3.5 at Armidale at 1pm - though dry at this stage.
Latest TWC output indicates good falls of snow between Armidale and into the Granite Belt of S QLD. Since I've been watching snow events over the years, this is the best forecast I've seen. QLD/NSW border area looks this best this late evening followed by the rest of the Northern Tablelands except the far southern parts Sat am.
The Moree sounding this morning is the coldest I've seen !
Some pretty wild weather going on in the Hunter with flooding through the Valley, and ships run aground by waves measured to 17 metres offshore.
EDIT: Tocal had 105mm between 10am and noon
Hi Michael !!
Some wild weather about and yeah armidale ap 12pm 3c...wouldnt be surprised about snow reports around there. It sounds fanatasic what you described, so snow maybe tonight and during the morning at Guyra. I am like you the forecast from the BOM leaves me somewhat confused as what to do. I havent seen the soundings yet. Hopefully if we go we can leave earlier before later this afternoon. I guess if there is a good chance of moisture, i dont think it won't be cold enough for snow. The only think that seems reasonable in the BOM forecast is that -2 for Armidale. It has been a few years i think since snow has fallen across the NT.
-
Some very good 24 hour totals from around Sydney showing up :) 105mm at Peakhurst Golf Course near where I am, 166mm in St Albans. 200 + is some of the Hunter sites that I have looked at and 85mm at Coolah.
Just read on SMHerald that a family of four have died as their car collapsed a section of the Old Pacific HWY near Sommersby on the Central Coast (have driven that road many a time). Exciting weather but there can be tragic consequences. Article >> (http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/storms-cause-havoc-in-nsw/2007/06/08/1181089338364.html)
-
Several inches of snow fell on Mt Kaputar yesterday and last night.
Some of my mates went up last night and got these photos:
http://narrabriweather.net/events/Snow09June2007.html
-
Wow, what a great snow chase event ! Feel privileged to have witnessed one of the biggest snowfall events near Tenterfield - and it was great to have model output forecasts verified. I still cannot understand why the BoM had no mention of snow in their Northern Tablelands forecasts (and Northwest Slopes) until the 4pm issue when it was already underway.
Was rather cold although the temp didn't drop below about 0.5 C the whole time despite the many hours of snow.
Initial dump of snow at the summit of Mt McKenzie (1285m):
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060801.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060801.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060802.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060802.jpg)
At about 1150m elevation here, when we met up with AC, Sercy and James. Snow fight was great fun, especially with the light powdery snow not causing any real damage
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060803.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060803.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060804.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060804.jpg)
The scene this morning at the Mt McKenzie summit, and on the way down - it was a very long 2km drive to get out of the fallen branches and trees !!!!
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060901.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060901.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060902.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060902.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060903.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060903.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2007060904.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007060904.jpg)
Certainly the best snow I've seen on the Northern Tablelands.
David - not surprised Mt Kaputar got a great fall as well !
Regards, Michael
-
WOW! Great snow shots Michael! I've never seen snow in my life, not really snow country out this way lol? Not that you wouldn't have known that yesterday when the top temp I measured was 12.4c at 3pm! Hope I get to see snow sometime soon, it may just happen if the weather goes crazy like this again! ;)
A friend of mine owns a very nice farmhouse (or it was anyway?) at Millfield, 15mins South of Wollombi in the Hunter He called us tonight to say everything has been lost there under 7 to 8feet of water. He had just finished renovating it! The moral to the story is NEVER BUY A FARM IN A VALLEY WITH A CREEK RUNNING THROUGH IT!
What an amazing weather event! Though the loss of life sustained was most unfortunate.
Cheers guys,
Shauno
-
Amazing snowfalls with some decent depth and especially considering it is June. I also cannot understand the lack of forecast for snow. I had only a brief look at the models and suggested snow would be likely - posted above!
Great you had a lot of fun.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
The rainfall totals and major flooding, and the strong wind damage in the Hunter region are incredible. Seems so long since a weather system did this in NSW.
Shaun - you could gamble on a trip up Mt Kaputar next time - there is good access from Narrabri. Would it take you about 3 hours to get there ? Normally our snow chases from the Lismore area involve a 3.5 hour drive to Guyra, but this system was quite special so only needed to drive the 2 hours to Tenterfield for once.
-
;D Hi Michael
Gr8 pics and David great pics also of Kaputar
My brothers and I left the Gold Coast about 5pm.
Just south of stanthorpe we hit some sleet showers and by the time we reached tenterfield there were wet flakes and it was snow, and u could see the snow on the cars. After tenterfield we had light drizzle again till we arrived near Glencoe and encountered a heavy snowshower and u could see the accumulations were rather heavy and the snow started to settle on the road. Once at the Ben Lomond range there wasnt much snow about and when we arrived at Guyra there was no snow. In morning we awoke to a nice covering of snow 4cm or so. We drove to Ben Lomond and took some pics before moving north. We decided to check Mt McKenzie out and there was still some snow about ( 1100m), but were unable to get to the summit (1285m) as the road was closed, and the time was about 10:30am.
Guyra
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v336/SamMac/guyra9june07.jpg)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v336/SamMac/meGuyraJune9th07.jpg)
Ben Lomond
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v336/SamMac/MeBenLomondJune9_o7.jpg)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v336/SamMac/BenLomondJune09_07.jpg)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v336/SamMac/snowrock_benLomondJune9_07.jpg)
Aroud Glencoe view west to ranges
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v336/SamMac/nearGlencoe_Westside_090607.jpg)
-
Terrific photos Sam, glad you were able to cover that area as we didn't have time on Saturday morning to tour other affected areas. Rodney also made up a huge snow ball like that and threw it onto AC's car :)
I've put together an infrared satpic loop from 10am Tues 5th to 10pm Sat 9th June. EDIT: Now as an interactive loop:
East Coast Low (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/20070605/satellite_loop_20070605.htm)
It shows most of the earlier rain band that gave the Queensland coast its good falls, then the east coast low and upper cold pool.
The upper low / cold pool can be traced back on the satpics to the morning of 31st May, but the loop gets a bit long.
Regards, Michael
-
Terrific photos Sam, glad you were able to cover that area as we didn't have time on Saturday morning to tour other affected areas. Rodney also made up a huge snow ball like that and threw it onto AC's car :)
I've put together an infrared satpic loop from 10am Tues 5th to 10pm Sat 9th June. File size is about 4.8mb.
East Coast Low (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200706_east_coast_low.gif)
It shows most of the earlier rain band that gave the Queensland coast its good falls, then the east coast low and upper cold pool.
The upper low / cold pool can be traced back on the satpics to the morning of 31st May, but the loop gets a bit long.
Regards, Michael
Hey Michael !! Thanks
Great that u got to see that amazing snowfall. I think an early start to winter is great and it wasnt long ago Nov 16th 2006 that snow settled in QLD
I am downloading the animation gif now...seems our net is back to dial up...an error at the isp it think. Hahaha bet AC loved that ;D We arrived at Guyra at 10:50pm, so we mustve been in Tenterfield around 8:45pm or so maybe. I am sure if we left earlier the snow wouldnve been on the groud at Glen Innes i think.
regards
Sam
-
Radar loops when the subtropical cyclone came ashore Friday evening. Quite a nice signature on radar.
Newcastle 128km scale (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070608/newcastle128.htm)
Newcastle 256km scale (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070608/newcastle256.htm)
MB
-
Australia-wide infrared satpic loop from 11am Mon 4th to 10pm Sun 10th June. Loop size is about 15.9mb. EDIT: Now as an interactive loop:
East Coast Low (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/20070604/satellite_loop_20070604.htm)
All my snow pics for the event are here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/mb20070608.html
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/mb20070609.html
-
We've seen the ship on the news but received this from 'friends in Newcastle' with permission. Is 'storm related' as moving this beast onto the foreshore is no mean feat!
Mike
-
That radar loops amazing MB! You just don't imagine that they can get so well defined as that was.
Jeff.
-
Michael,
Nice snow chase - certainly some impressive falls up that way. Was the police called in as a result of the tree incident or coincidental meeting across the snow?
That incident certainly attracts one's attention to being more alert on my future chases. The weight of snow obviously in the northern states of the United States and Canada is very well known for creating damage and also causing deaths (obviously ice storms are more likely the main offenders).
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
The police was there from dawn apparently to stop locals from driving up to the lookout - mainly because the road was virtually blocked in various places, and the hazard of branches snapping under the weight of the snow. I knew it was unsafe from before sunrise as I could hear the odd large branch crack and smash to the ground nearby to the lookout where we had stayed the night.
We did a photo dash and then tried to get out as soon as possible, but it was very slow going moving some trees off the road and edging around others.
The policeman was very friendly - he didn't tell us off or anything for being there. Guess it's a very rare occurrence for so much snow there. Rod and I probably have the only photos of the best of the snow at Mt Mackenzie given no-one else was allowed up there that day.
-
I saved model output from GFS and TWC Mesocast for the 8th June 00z run. Clicks on the links for loops.
GFS Analysis and 24 hour forecast in 6 hour increments:
GFS Snow levels (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_gfs_snow_level.gif) / GFS RH 700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_gfs_rh700.gif) / GFS Temp 850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_gfs_temp850.gif) / GFS Temp 500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_gfs_temp500.gif)
TWC Analysis and 24 hour forecast in 3 hour increments:
TWC RH 850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_twc_rh850.gif) / TWC RH 700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_twc_rh700.gif) / TWC Temp 850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_twc_temp850.gif) / TWC Temp 500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007060800_twc_temp500.gif)
I think both these models did very well in their forecasts for several days ahead of the ECL and snow actually occurring.
MB
-
How did the branch land on the car? Did it just drop off a tree as you were driving or were you parked at the time when it fell?
-
Hi Jeff, that whole tree just toppled over and hit us. We had briefly stopped due to a phone call, although the whole trip down the mountain was stop start and very slow due to the other trees and branches already down across the road.
Unlucky it hit us but lucky it wasn't worse.
MB
-
Hi All.
I've put together a web page summarising some of the information for the ECL and cold outbreak June 5 to 10:
http://users.qld.chariot.net.au/~carls/200706/ecl200706summary.htm
Any corrections / suggestions to improve it welcome.
Regards,
Carl.
-
Thanks for collating all that information into one page Carl. It is a great resource to have archived.
Just found out the Tenterfield Star newspaper ran a story about the snow. I wrote pretty much all of what they reported but not sure which photos they published as the online article does not include any.
newspaper article (http://tenterfield.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=news&subclass=general&story_id=596326&category=general)
MB
-
;D Hey Michael
I saw that article :D awesome u made the local newspaper ;D
and the Guyra newspaper had a picture of the snow on the front cover
off topic :)
BOM has isolated showers forecasted for the NT above 900 m snow or sleet :P safe bet to say snow at Guyra :D
-
Given this event occurred during June, my rainfall statistics would be useful for this period:
| Date | Rainfall |
| Tuesday, 5 June 2007 | 0.0 |
| Wednesday, 6 June 2007 | 0.0 |
| Thursday, 7 June 2007 | 10.6 |
| Friday, 8 June 2007 | 41.8 |
| Saturday, 9 June 2007 | 86.0 |
| Sunday, 10 June 2007 | 21.8 |
| Monday, 11 June 2007 | D 0.2 |
Total for the month of June was 270.6mm incredible considering the typical avergae monthly rainfall during the winter months and also considering that it is the wettest months for several years. One can say with confidence, the drought is over in this part of the world.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara