Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 06 March 2009, 10:52:03 AM
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there is a low North of Cooktown moving south. The BOM has stated the following.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Thursday the 5th of March 2009
A low pressure system is located over the north-west Coral Sea about 360km
north-east of Cooktown. The low is expected to move slowly southwards during the
next 24 to 48 hours. The chance of this system developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours is high.
The following posts are the SAT Syn. and land charts for the system.
Looking at the land charts it seems to be stationed around Townsville on Monday the 9 of March 2009
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Apt to begin a thread on this developing cyclone off the Qld in the Coral Sea. It has been developing over the last few days and many of the overseas authorities have picked up on it now. It has strong circulation and a favorable environment. BoM Qld give this system a high rating for development to cyclone status within 24 hours. Today's hpa was 998 earlier on, so it is gathering momentum. Current track is south which gives it that classic ECL movement - I think the areas already inundated could do without any more downpours, but it looks like this one will be one to watch given all the reports. A couple of obscure reports have it moving westwards towards the GOC, but I hardly think that's possible given its steering winds at this time. The trough it is attached to seems to be keeping it well against the coast as an ECL if it does not develop regardless.
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Update from BOM,they have issued thier first Cyclone advice for the system
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:41pm on Thursday the 5th of March 2009
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape
Melville to Bowen.
At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 390 kilometres east of
Lockhart River and 470 kilometres north northeast of Cairns, moving west
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
The Tropical Low is expected to move south southwest while deepening, and may
develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Friday.
Gales are not expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours,
however gales may develop about coastal and island communities later.
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 147.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
People between Cape Melville and Bowen should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.
I have posted the latest track map for the low, it really is looking like a rather large system at this stage
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Well this certainly intensified out of nowhere, it's been a messy cluster for a while now.
Designation: 17U for this system. Seems to be intensifying pretty steadily at the moment.
Edit: This low has already developed into a Cyclone. We now have Cyclone Hamish.
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The latest update from BOM for cyclone Hamish CAT 2
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:04am on Friday the 6th of March 2009
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities between
Cape Melville and Cardwell. A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island
communities from Cardwell to Hayman Island.
Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a category 2 cyclone, is located in the northwestern
Coral Sea and at 4:00 am EST was estimated to be 265 kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 370 kilometres north northeast of Cairns, moving south southwest at
7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south-southwest today,
bringing it a little closer to the north tropical coast, while intensifying.
Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Cape
Melville and Cardwell by this afternoon or evening.
In the longer term the system is expected to adopt a south-southeastwards
movement and damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island
communities between Cardwell and Hayman Island within 24 to 48 hours.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 147.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals
By March 6 they have Hamish as a CAt3 moving down the coast, as you can see by the track map
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Lovely large 'galaxy' type cloud pattern on VIS. The eye has become apparent in the past 2 images as well.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=nqld&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=
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I'm flying out to Mackay tomorrow morning. This looks like it could be most interesting.
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I have read through several articles from News reports, including the Cairns paper, regarding Cyclone Hamish, and this is short summary of what seems to be the facts to date.
Cyclone Hamish is threatening the far north Queensland coast and is expected to batter communities from Cairns to Mackay in the next two days.
Hamish formed into a cyclone and was named at approximately 10.00pm last night (Thursday, 5th of March, 2009.) The category two system developed off the coast of Cooktown, north of Cairns, and is expected to strengthen into a category three by Friday afternoon. Category 3 cyclones can produce winds at its centre of well over 200kp/h.
A cyclone warning has been issued for communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell, with a cyclone watch in place from Cardwell to Hayman Island.
Cyclone Hamish is about 370 kilometres north north east of Cairns and is moving at seven kilometres an hour parallel to the coast.
It is said that cyclone Hamish should be roughly 100km off Cape Tribulation this evening and by mid morning Saturday it should be somewhere between 60km to 140km off Cairns.
Weather bureau spokeswoman Alicia Duncanson says strong winds are expected to strengthen to gale force today, with communities being warned to prepare for damaging wind gusts of up to 130 kilometres an hour.
Wind speeds at Bougainville reef off Cooktown are currently hitting 100kp/h with similar winds set to batter the coast as the cyclone continues it south-south west track down the coast.
North Queensland is still recovering from floods caused by cyclone Ellie early last month, with some parts of the state's Gulf country still cut off by floodwaters. Sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal expected tide along the coastline south of the cyclone.
Mr Farrell said TC Hamish might get close to the coast south of Bowen as it headed south.
"But cyclones can vary from the expected track so residents should ensure they are prepared for strong winds and rain," he said.
Mr Farrell said the bureau was expecting a continuation of heavy rainfall that should ease by Sunday.
Forecasters say it is Queensland's most severe cyclone of the season.
Cyclone Advice No 6 issued at 2.14pm today, shows the statistics for Hamish being:
Details of Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 146.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals
The track map at this stage shows no signs of change from this morning.
It will be intersting to see how Carlos E. goes, I hope the flight is not too bumpy.
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I have posted a loop of the Cairns radar at 4.55 pm EST, Friday 06/03/09
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The current track maps seems to indicate that Hamish could possibly slide pass Makay, and has a higher possibility to cross the coast at St Lawrence. But as we have learnt from cyclones they are unpredictable. The models show Hamish just moving parallel with the coast with a slight hint of a east ward direction between Innisfall and Cardwell, although, as said previously, it is hugging the coast line.
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Tropical Cyclone Hamish has intensified as predicted over night and is now a cat.3 system is located in the northwestern Coral Sea and at 4:00 am EST was estimated to be 220 kilometres
east northeast of Cairns and 355 kilometres north northeast of Townsville,
moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.
Details for Hamish from BOM:
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 147.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 966 hectoPascals
Models now show Hamish Intensifying to a cat. 4 (sometime between 4.00pm Saturday and 4.00am Sunday,) as he continues moving down the coast.
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Latest GFS forecast has the cyclone directly affecting SE QLD by Monday...
Also, some obs from Holmes Reef east of Cairns which had the centre of the cyclone pass right over.
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Hello..complete noob here :)
My friend passed this onto me as a link:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc_tracks/dynamic/current/NONAME_18P_2009030612.gif
shows the track crossing nr Gladstone and Yeppoon then west towards the coalfields...which is where I am heading tomorrow...looks like an interesting drive :)
EDIt: The linked navy websites shows a security certificate error, but thats just cos it US military...dont fear any nasties from proceeding..promise :)
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This has spun up and intensified very quickly. I also saw the Holmes Reef obs and was going to post them but you beat me to it.
Now I guess the only question was where it might decide to make landfall. Not a good week to be holidaying in the Whitsundays!
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I hope cyclone Hamish dose not affect us in a bad way here in se QLD north nsw my nans coming from Sydney directly on Monday and she’s having second thoughts now cause the latest prediction shows cat 4 south of makay closing in se QLD scary if it does.
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Cyclone Hamish intensified to a Cat 4 cyclone sometime around 2.00pm this afternoon. The system is located in the northwestern Coral Sea and at 4:00 pm EST was about 240 kilometres north of Hayman Is and 235 kilometres northeast of Ayr. Hamish is moving south southeast at 19 kilometres per hour.
The wind gusts near centre of the cyclone are about 260 kilometres per hour, and it has a central pressure of 950 hectoPascals.
Seven National News reported that the low lying Whitsunday Islands have been evacuated. There is a lot of flash flooding around Makay. The QLD premier told Seven News that if need be, compulsory evacuation of people will be enforced. Emergency Service Dept at Kedron in Brisbane, stated that those in the purple zone in Makay, have now been told to move to higher ground and appointed evacuation centers.
One forecaster said that the system" had a possibility it could make its way down to Hervey Bay", so they are keeping a very close eye on the storm.
As I said in a previous post, anything is possible with cyclones, because they are to high extent, unpredictable in their track paths.
Seven news stated the reason for the system to intensify so quickly was due to the warm water off the coast.
I made a trip to the coast today and in all honesty I would have said that the water temp. was around 24-25C.
Seven news stated that the bureau, at this stage did not feel that Hamish will intensify any stronger. Personally I would not be surprised to see Hamish reach Cat 5.
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Hi,
I read news reports tonight referring to Mackay. That brought back memories of the fears of a major cyclone hitting the region with a significant storm surge and the amount of development that has occurred since other major tropical clones had hit the region. Most of the low lying land from memory in this particular documentary seemed to be in the 1 to 2 metres above sea level and could easily sustain flooding with a storm surge.
Just some thoughts.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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This is going to be nasty if it moves onto the coast before it subsides. A very well defined eye on the 1km resolution satellite.
Looks like Flinders Reef might have copped the eye as well, 154kph at 1pm from ESE, dropped to 50, then back to 148 kph at 3pm from WSW. Shame it didn't report gusts during those times, pressure down to 956.
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tropical cyclone Hamish has reached an extreme of cat 5
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Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.5 degrees South 149.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals
Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQP0005.txt
Looks like it's intensifying.
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Since the last post by Jab au, Cyclone Hamish has intensified.
Data sourced from BOM now shows Hamish to be packing wind gusts of up to 295 km/h. He is currently 145 km northeast of Hayman Island and 230 km northeast of Mackay. He has a centre of 925 HPa.and is moving southeast at 17 Km/h.
The Bureau has adviced people from Bunderberg to Tewantin, which is just over an hour drive from my place, and where my sister has a house, to start considering the precautions or actions needed if the system continues to be a threat to them.
For the latest track map, http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
I was just reading the paper and the track map showed Hamish to be downgraded to a Cat 3 some time Monday, but the latest is only a downgrade to cat 4.
The paper is calling it "a once in a hundred year storm", but no offence, my wife and I commented on how many "once in a hundred year storm" we have seen, read about and sat through over the last 8 years.
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Also comletely new to this site. I understand cyclones are pretty unpredictable, however maybe you might want to look at this site.
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=seaussie&noofdays=7
Shows Hamish following the coast down as far as Fraser island before heading east as it looses a bit of steam.
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I too was thinking about Fraser Island (being a 4WDer) and wondering how many people would be camped on the island at any one time. And how long it would take to evacuate the place if needed. I'm not sure of the capacity of the ferry.
With the speed this thing is moving they would want to start pretty quickly.
A tent in a cyclone is probably not the best place to be.
Also, something severely out of kilter with the 1km sat images this morning. On the map the cyclone is now off the coast of PNG!
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Yeah, the YOKO 1km VIS are hopeless atm. Here's one sourced from Weatherzone.
The forecast track maps and intensities from BoM and JTWC are quite similar with a Hervey Bay / Fraser Island target for Hamish.
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Just spoke to my sister in Tewantin QLD, she received EWN this morning at 5.00am with 1st warnings to start taking precautionary actions
They have a house on the lake.
She was saying it was very still this morning with a red sky.
In Scotland, where my parents come from, the local fishing villages had a saying, and I know there are many versions out there, it was
Red sky at night, sailors delight.
Red sky in Morning sailors be warned.
She said that the winds have picked up in the last hour or so. They are still well down on the track map, but it is creeping ever so closer to them.
As for the people on Fraser Island, the QLD premier has compulsory evacuations in place, and as it comes to there cut off point,or when they deem it time to take action, before it has reached a critical stage they will enforce the evacuations of campers of Fraser Island.
At this stage they are not playing any games with the severity of Hamish. Her management of this potential disaster will be scrutinisingly watched by all. She seems with the Emergency Dept up here, to have a good grasp of what is happening.
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Creal Reef at 1.30pm Sunday EST must be in the eye of the cyclone, the stats obtained from BOM are below
They have downgraded Hamish to a CAt 4 sytem now, and are in the motion of evacuating Fraser Island.
It is very hard to cut and paste tables so they line up.
A technique is to do a print screen and then paste into a graphics program, cut out the section you want, reduce colour depth and save as png.
Thanks for helping Michael and Jimmy, I got into a bit of a mess with the table,
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I was just looking at that one. I suspect the anenometer has been knocked off it's perch as it certainly isn't in the eye at the moment. Actually the whole site is now over an hour behind on updates so the rest of it may have gone down as well.
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Creal Reef (ENE of Mackay) and also Flinders Reef (NE of Townsville) which took a direct hit from Hamish yesterday afternoon (7th) are attached.
Latest GFS has the TC not making landfall as per JTWC, but weakening then staying off the South Queensland coast for a few days as the high consolidates in the Tasman Sea. None of the model output has much rain south of the border.
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Wind has definitely picked up in the last several hours and the clouds have kicked in, but for us here it's a cruel waiting game. In the midst of all this, this anxiousness has aroused confusion because some people seem a bit uncertain whether this system will make a direct hit or just do a sideswipe (and thus seem a bit unwilling to face up to the fact that they may have to prepare for the worst). Either way I think I'll wait tomorrow before making any final preparations. Only when the warnings are issued for my area.
I do hope the BoM are monitoring this closely and act accordingly when danger looms.
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I am wondering if someone can recall cyclones with a similar track and where they decided to make landfall (if they did).
My memory brought back one from 1981 when I lived near Lismore and if it had continued on it's original track it could have hit us after crossing the coast near Brisbane/Gold Coast. Luckily for us it hung a turn the night before and went inland near Maryborough - though wikipedia records damage from the Gold Coast to Sunshine Coast. But that one had tracked in from the Fiji direction and not run down the Qld coast. We had got to the stage of starting to get loose iron etc under cover (living on a farm at the time).
Unusual path I can see here, though as it moves south I assume the easterly winds from the high centred over Tas (that is bringing onshore winds and showers to Sydney) will start to push it back towards the coast.
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Cyclone Hamish is continuing his track down the southeast coast at 10 Km/h. He is moving in a south easterly direction.
The statistic gathered fromBOM are:
Hamish is still a Cat 4 cyclone with winds up to 240km/h. he has a centre of 945HPa.
He is located 230Km north-northeast of yeppoon at 4.00 am this morning.
The track map does not show any suggestion that he will cross the coast in the next 48 hours.
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Hi,
I am interested in the current decision making patterns and refer once again to the fear of storm surges. Here is the quote from the ABC news website entitled -"Wide Bay residents advised to flee Hamish's destruction"
"We're asking people in that storm surge area to self-evacuate and we're hoping they'll do that before midnight on Monday," he said.
This is the real threat given so many people live in low lying areas. Even a category 4 can pack a significant storm surge (http://www.bom.gov.au/info/cyclone/storm_surge/storm_surge.shtml).
More on storm surges (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge)
Here is an example of storm surges from http://www.extremestormsurges.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyKl4lz3mzg
Please continue the focus on the discussion on tropical cyclone Hamish - the video is just an example for education purposes.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I feel there could be a considerable amount of complacency with evacuation of low lying areas, and especially with self evacuation. I say this after reading the headlines of the latest ABC article,"Hamish weakening, unlikely to make landfall" the article quotes "Weather bureau forecaster Ann Farrell says the system has weakened and is not likely to make landfall at all."
Although, these may be the facts, I think there is a high possibility that many are going to feel well be right. The bureau has still warned that there is exceptional high tides with this system, so tidal or storm surges could still be a major concern for many areas. People need to stay alert and listen to all warnings, and have an evacuation plan in place.
The ABC article quotes Ann Farrell from the BOM, "The situation's looking much improved on how it was during yesterday, but we're still not out of the woods and we should remain vigilant," she said.
"There is a slight chance always with these things that they can move in towards the coast.
The latest Stats from BOM on Hamish
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 7:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 21.8 degrees South 152.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
All the stats at this stage, don't seem to show any signs off a weakening system, Need to keep an eye on the updates to see what is happening
Update, BOM have issued a severe warning for Synoptic Situation:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish was located 320km east southeast of Mackay,
moving southeast at 10 km/h.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is generating large southeasterly swells about
the central coast of Queensland. This is expected to cause dangerous surf
conditions and inundation above the normal high tide level about exposed coastal
areas and islands between Proserpine and St Lawrence around the high tide this
morning.
Colin
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The latest stat from BOM for Hamish at 11.00am EST.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 22.1 degrees South 152.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
He remains much the same at this stage, but if you are wondering how the Dvorak rating is used, that John Allen was talking about, the following site (pdf file) explains it. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/06velden.pdf
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Since midday, my wife and I have been hearing reports and even watched 2 news breaks ( make that 3, as I was writing this another report came through) saying they have down graded Cyclone Hamish. Only the chance of him making landfall has been downgraded, and I think some have misunderstood what BOM meant by that. They only give Hamish a 5% chance to make landfall.
The 2.00 pm advice has been released and Hamish, besides positional changes is still a CAt 4
From the BOM
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 22.5 degrees South 152.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
It was of interest that the State govt this morning was going to do a mass evacuation from Hervey Bay, by bus and train, to bring residents to Brisbane and other places. That has been put on hold. It seemed to be a feeling that they can relax now, the storm is not going to affect them.
They did interview one Hervey Bay resident, who had been through several cyclones, and she stated," these storm are unpredictable, you look after yourself and if you feel you have to go, you go".
I will know from living in QLD for 42 years, seeing and being through several cyclones, and we used to track them for the surf, you never take them for granted. Every storm is different, and no computer model will show you exactly what the system will do.
But I really do hope they are correct, they only give Hamish a 5% chance to make landfall, we need the rain but not a Cyclone.
Looking at the track map Hamish looks like he going to do a complete 360 degree turn due to the high over the Tasman
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System looks like it will fall apart, its forward motion is being retarded and its undergoing interaction with significant wind shear.
Hi John
Not arguing just wondering where you are getting the evidence for significant shear? The Brisbane and Rockhampton aerological diagrams aren't showing much shear. Though I admit I don't know how to interpret the shear diagrams on bsch.
Richard
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Cyclone Hamish has not changed all day, they were sating by lunch he would be Cat 4, but tha thas not been the case. The warning is now curent right down to Tewantin, 5 minutes North of Noosa, or about 70 minute drive North of Brisbane.
The latest fromBOM at 5.00pm
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Yeppoon to Hervey Bay. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island
communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the
Capricornia coast and at 4:00 pm EST was estimated to be 255 kilometres east of
Yeppoon and 245 kilometres north northeast of Bundaberg, moving southeast at 17
kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island
communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron, Fraser and Lady
Elliot Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel
to the coast during the next 24 hours. In the 24 to 48 hour period the cyclone
is expected to become slow moving and weaken slightly.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 22.8 degrees South 153.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
He just keeps plodding along down the coast. He has gained momentum again, travelling back to around 17km/h. He did slow down to around 10-13km/h this morning.
As I keep saying I hope he weakens, we do not want a cyclone, just some good rain
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Tropical cyclone Hamish has continued his quest down the QLD coast last night, he is remained a CAT 4, has risen 1 HPa to 946HPa, and slowed his movement to 11 km/h. I have been wondering for the last day or so, that once he passes Fraser Island, the end of the reefs and hits the open water, if he will change course, today the bureau have suggested that "Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to slow down and weaken during today.
It is then forecast to change direction on Wednesday morning and begin to move west towards the coast as a weaker cyclone."
I had read somewhere last night that they were thinking a CAT2 or high CAT1.
Once cyclone Hamish reaches open water, there will be no reef to break the impact of the swell, so it will be interesting to watch for wave heights on the wave buoys, Stradbroke island is usually an excellent one to keep an eye on, if only they had held off the Roxy Pro for one extra week. Snapper Rocks or Kirra should be pumping if the system keeps edging a bit further down the coast.
STATS from BOM this Morning
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 23.7 degrees South 154.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 946 hectoPascals
This is one site for waverider buoys, http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/coast_and_oceans/waves_and_storm_tides/wave_monitoring/
The north Stradbroke comes under the Brisbane site and this norning has registered 3.6M
Col.
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Can someone please explain the discrepancy between the BOM cyclone tracking, http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html and the JTWC map.
Both the Hawaii site and the JTWC map show Hamish tracking away from the coast where BOM shows it performing a loop.
Which one of these sites is more accurate, why is BOM so different?
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To put in in simple terms or language, from my understanding, they all run off computer generated models, using data collected over the decades of storms and weather patterns, they also calculate the variables for each day, eg, the current high we have over the Tasman today, the wind shear in the area, they use all the collected data from aerological readings etc, they compare statistics of the cyclone from yesterday to today, basically updating information all the time, from hour to hour, or if there is a significant change, they see if it is intensify or weakening, ( more technical language and understanding refer to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/06velden.pdf, (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/06velden.pdf,) ) they put this all together, recalculate the systems movements, and try and predict what Hamish will do.
Hamish, and all cyclones are completely different, they may have similarities, but every storm is different. He is allowed to do whatever he wants. He may stall, regenerate and head for land, he may weaken and form into a rain depression, or may just head out to sea and fizzle out. They are, to a high degree unpredictable.
So any one of those sights could be correct, but BOM is using current data gathered from sources close the the cyclone and have updated there track path to what technically should happen right now. BOM would also be scrutinizing every movement due to it being in our waters.
Hope this helps. Just in basic form. Someone else, will probably provide a better or more detailed understanding.
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I would suggest that the Bom's track is more reliable as it is being updated every 3 hours compared to the JTWC who are only issuing track maps every 12 hours
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Cyclone Hamish has been downgraded to CAT 3 at 11.00am today.
The official word from BOM
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 24.2 degrees South 154.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
They have issued a separate warning
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds, Abnormally High Tides and Dangerous Surf
For coastal and island communities between Sandy Cape and Coolangatta
Issued at 10:00 am on Tuesday 10 March 2009
Synoptic Situation: Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a Category 3 cyclone, was
located at 10:00 am EST to be 145 kilometres east northeast of Sandy Cape,
moving southeast at 10
kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to slow down further and gradually
weaken.
Damaging winds gusts to 90 km/h, dangerous surf conditions and abnormally high
tides are expected over coastal and island communities between Sandy Cape and
Coolangatta over the next few days.
They have moved the Quicksilver Pro to snapper rocks today. In Brisbane it is starting to become very cyclonic in conditions. The wind is picking up quite considerably in the last hour. Cape Moreton has registered 93 km/h. Most of Brisbane is experiencing gusts up to 50km/h and intensifying.
It will be interesting to see what Hamish actually does from here. The track map has him doing a complete circle.
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Cyclone Hamish at 11.00 am EST, is now a CAT 2 cyclone approx. 230 KM Northeast of Fraser Island according to BOM. He is now moving in a northwesterly direction, back up the coast. We will see what he decides to do over the next couple of days, but at this stage he does not seem to pose a threat according to BOM.
In the South east of QLD we have have severe weather warning in place due to a combination of cyclone Hamish and the high from the Tasman. Last night, the wind in Brisbane became quite calm, and today we have had a few showers tending towards light rain. They were expected 80+ km/h winds today.
The Brisbane waverider buoy, positioned at Point Lookout at North Stradbroke Island is measuring 4.7M swells. Duranbah on the QLD/ Nsw border at the tweed river is registering 3.3M. You can check out the latest at http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/coast_and_oceans/waves_and_storm_tides/wave_monitoring/ (http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/environmental_management/coast_and_oceans/waves_and_storm_tides/wave_monitoring/)
Due to the large swell of SEQ coast we have had a unpleasant Chemical spill from a cargo ship. The following is a short extract taken from 9NSM article posted at 7.00 am this morning. It states regarding the mishap
{A cargo ship that spilled 31 containers of ammonium nitrate into Queensland's Moreton Bay in the wake of Cyclone Hamish has also leaked heavy fuel oil.
The Hong Kong-flagged Pacific Adventurer cargo ship was travelling from Newcastle to Brisbane in rough seas near Point Lookout at Stradbroke Island in southeast Queensland when the container spill happened about 3am (AEST) on Wednesday.}
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With the forecast track now showing it weakening to a Cat 1 then a Low and heading back NNW, I am wondering about the chances of it picking up strength once again as it moves back to warmer waters where it formed?
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I can not see it myself - allthough that said BOM are still reporting that it has winds of 40 knots
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I don't know at this stage whether this is a typographical error, misquote or a slip of the tongue, but it was in the article "Search for fishermen may be scaled down." http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/12/2513737.htm (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/12/2513737.htm)
Quoting from the article posted approx 2 hours ago, it stated regarding ex tropical cyclone Hamish,:
{Hamish weakens
The weather bureau says Cyclone Hamish has now weakened to a tropical low.
The storm reached category 5 over the weekend, but has remained offshore.
The bureau says the low is sitting about 300 kilometres north-east of Gladstone and will continue to weaken as it moves south along the coast.
Forecaster David Grant says fierce winds and rough seas should ease in the next 24 hours.
"We've seen mean winds getting up to around 70 or 80 kilometres an hour, particularly around the islands," he said.
"The coastlines ocean swells are getting up to around three, sometimes four metres."}
All reports, and track map from 11.00 pm last night, has Hamish moving Northwest at this stage, but I was observing the animated WZ sat pictures, and it shows that the cloud close to the coast is moving down from the north. Further out to sea the Tasman high is pushing everything North. I wonder if Ex Hamish, now a tropical low and weakening, is starting to be forced back down the coast. If this is so, will he turn into a rain depression, possible flooding for Northcoast and Brisbane, or is it just an error in the report. Time will tell.
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On Wednesday morning, the Pacific Adventurer, registered in Hong Kong, sailed straight into cyclone Hamish's destructive path, near North Stradbroke Island. It is reported that this ship encountered a 9 M swell, the wave rider buoys, were registering 4.7 M swell. The ship lost 31 containers of fertilizer overboard. The ships hull was ruptured and 31 tonnes of oil spewed out into the ocean.
The following is quote from ABC article this morning, it states
{Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has declared Moreton Island, Bribie Island and southern parts of the Sunshine Coast disaster zones after a massive oil spill.
Sixty kilometres of coastline is covered in the slick, which came from the Pacific Adventurer after it was damaged earlier this week in rough seas whipped up by cyclone Hamish.}
Looking at the news coverage and the posted photos, it is a mess out there. There is a lot of wild life that has been affected. As regards the ammonium Nitrate, one expert said that the only damage this will cause is that the kelp will be 30 feet long instead of 6 feet. Is he joking or what?
They do not know if all the containers have sunk, this is a major danger to water craft, if you have seen what happens, a lot of these containers sit just below the water line and you don't know they are there until you have hit one.
Colin
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Tonight's news is reporting 100,000 litres of oil spoll (not sure how many tons that equates to). But they did also say the ship's captain may have initially understated the loss. The environmental damage is going to be very nasty looking at the rivers etc which are important breeding grounds for wildlife (let alone the unsightly much on the beaches).
Certainly looks very messy and surprised my sister in NZ hasn't had a call from them to come over - she works for Maritime NZ as an environmental scientist and spends here time flying around the world for conferences on how to deal with these things.