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Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Antonio (stormboy) on 02 March 2009, 07:32:37 AM

Title: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 02 March 2009, 07:32:37 AM
I have decided to start this topic now because the heat right now in the northern rivers, south east QLD and northern table lands has reached above predicted. So far ballina recording 35.4 was predicted 34 and Lismore will reach 35+ for sure. Due to this heat we should be seeing some action develop over the next few hours hopefully humidity rises.

regards stormboy
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 02 March 2009, 10:51:23 AM
In Brisbane, we did not reach our expected 36C, we peaked at about 33.8C.
There is no storm activity present, but tomorrow they have forecasted possible afternoon storms with a high of 32C.
Wednesday also is predicted to be 34C with afternoon storms.

So we will be keeping a close eye on this.

cheers
Col
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 02 March 2009, 03:23:16 PM
I agree with you there coltan I’ve just looked at the latest reports and southeast QLD looks to be in for some storms Mon-Wed. today ballina reached 35.8 and was predicted 34 evans head reached 37.7 and was meant to be 33 so a good way to start a toasty autumn.

Regards storm boy

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Richary on 02 March 2009, 04:38:54 PM
When I used to live in Sydney years ago a hot day was a fair guarantee of a storm to cool it down at least every second day. This seems to have changed as we can be hot but nothing happens. Conditions are too dry to have anything form.

The same seems to have happened on the north coast (used to live at Coraki) and despite the hot weather nothing developed today. Obviously we need to look at more factors like humidity at height and so on. Rather than just saying it's stinking hot so we will get a storm later.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 03 March 2009, 03:24:02 AM
Even though they have predicted storms today in SE QLD,( it is already hot and very muggy,) Wednesday looks like the go for Northern NSW and SE QLD.
The charts are showing that the cold front that will hit Vic. on Tuesday (severe weather warning is still in place for VIC on Tues,) will sweep its way across the south east on Wed.

 Brisbane is forecasted to have a top of 33C. So with the right conditions and the cold and hot combining together, we could be in for some severe storms.

The BOM land charts posted below.

Colin.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: James on 03 March 2009, 04:22:02 AM
Looking at GFS, today looks the pick of the next 3 days. Cooler upper temps and better wind shear the main advantage. Little bit too much moisture for my liking up high however can't complain as any storm right now would be nice. Wednesday lacks good wind shear and cooler upper temps - doesnt look good for organised severe storms.

Look forward to seeing Brisbane's sounding later this morning.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Kristy Norman on 03 March 2009, 04:54:28 AM
There is a severe weather warning in place for parts of NSW tomorrow for strong winds with the cold front coming through. BOM is forecasting some wild winds and thunderstorms later in the day for our area so it might get a bit interesting. Also forecasted is areas of raised dust...lovely!
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Michael Bath on 03 March 2009, 06:58:50 AM
Some really strong surface layer winds are forecast for tomorrow (tues) over VIC and S NSW - perhaps getting up to 60 knots. Going to be a dangerous day!

Yesterday (Sunday) I measured 36.5 - which is the highest temp of the season here. DPs were not all that high until later along the coast - ie Ballina on 24 late arvo. The sounding showed it was very dry above the surface so ended up being no chance of storms.

Nasty overcast today, so wont see anything much. Was amazed to see the BoM actually update its forecast at 10am to include storms in the north of the Northern Rivers - which it should have been in the 430am issue.

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 07:42:03 AM
Us here in ballina have just had a recent split second area of rain with light thunder. My friend in Byron said he can here thunder out at sea now. Radar below
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 07:59:36 AM
here is the latest on weather warning NSW and synoptic chart TUESDAY

Priority
NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for Tuesday
for Damaging Winds
For people in
Lower Western, Riverina and Alpine areas of the South West Slopes, Southern Tablelands and ACT above 1200 metres.

Issued at 11:10 am on Monday 2 March 2009

Synoptic Situation: 9:00 am EDT Monday
An intense cold front will cross western NSW during Tuesday. The front will reach the southwest corner of NSW around midday and move east across the Lower Western, Riverina and western parts of the Upper Western district during the afternoon and evening. Strong and hot northerly winds are forecast ahead of the change with strong and markedly cooler southwesterly winds to follow. The very windy conditions will produce extensive areas of raised dust and will result in very high to extreme fire danger conditions.
This is an update of the warning issued at 5:05 am Monday

Peak wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected over the Lower Western and Riverina districts during Tuesday, especially near the front. The Lower Western and Riverina districts include towns like Broken Hill, Wentworth, Ivanhoe, Balranald, Deniliquin, Hay, Griffith and Narrandera.

Over Alpine areas of the Southwest Slopes, Southern Tablelands and ACT, winds will strengthen to average 60 to 70 km/h by late Tuesday with gusts to about 110 km/h about the peaks.
Emergency services advise you to keep clear of fallen power lines, stay indoors away from windows and keep children indoors.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES [NSW and ACT] on telephone number 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:00 pm Monday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 08:10:35 AM
excuse me anyone james used a GFS what exactly is this?
and sorry MB what do you mean by The sounding showed it was very dry above the surface so ended up being no chance of storms. please explain sounding is it area?


stormboy
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: nmoir on 03 March 2009, 09:13:11 AM
VIC fires
there is a big difference between 32c and 48c. That is the difference between the fast dangerous fires they could get tomorrow and the horrific conditions on feb7. I agree that 100kph winds make fires run fast but the dew points are up and temps way down on that day.
The worst fire danger is further north on west NSW but nothing to burn there. I am not going to say something bad wont happen but  we have seen days like this before but the feb7 conditions were almost unprecidented. i am going to go to Deniliquin and if any fires do occur to the south i am within striking distance and if not i am a prime spot for some dust storms anyway.


Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 09:19:30 AM
I just hope that the remainder of the fires in Vitoria do not spread or get worse tomorrow/Wednesday.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Kristy Norman on 03 March 2009, 12:13:09 PM
I have just watched our local news, and I am very worried with tomorrows conditions. To hear Premier John Brumby say that tomorrow is likely to be as bad as Black Friday and Ash Wednseday cannot be good. He also says it will be an extreme hot wind event followed by an extreme storm event with possible widespread power outages due to wind gusts 100+. Now I'm starting to wish we moved to a nice little farm up there on the northern NSW coast!
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 12:14:41 PM
An amazing event happened this afternoon 6pm a cloud rotating almost caused a waterspout then continued to rotate above our house here is a video it might not be available until you tube allows it thank you

Stormboy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b64U7vJlLLg
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 03 March 2009, 01:27:13 PM
Stormboy,

That is definitely rotation and rather similar to the rotation base I posted from about a week ago. Can you suggest the time and location where it occurred and whether there was a storm around - generally some more information. Nice catch - goes to show you don't always need to travel long distances to get something significant.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 01:48:05 PM
Jimmy to be precise it was about 5:57pm in Ballina northern rivers nsw in my front yard above house thunder present under a huge developing cumulonimbus very windy until passed over. Hope this helps oh and the date was 2/3/09

stormboy

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Chris. on 03 March 2009, 02:31:26 PM
Location; Warwick SE Qld.

Hi Everyone,

Great video Stormboy, I keep watching it over and over. Very hard to get a look at conditions here in Warwick today, mainly overcast from around lunchtime today. The morning was hot and humid and convection towers were forming to the North and West that I could see and a cool change came through with light rain around 2pm. I was lucky to get a break in the sky at 4.30pm and got this mammatus cloud and the base of one tower.

There is also about 1000 cockies in the trees in this photo.

Thanks,
Chris.

Need to check my camera, photoshop has the correct time picture taken but not correct in the exif upoaded with the image, it says taken at 6.23.

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 03 March 2009, 02:47:20 PM
Nice photo Chris. I was surprised to see this rotation myself as there was only light thunder and gusty winds coming from the cumulonimbus when it reached anvil stage it simply stopped and faded away. There were some nice cells in south east QLD this arvo and warnings but now cancelled. The severe weather warning tomorrow sounds bad for VIC; south NSW could be gusts up to 110kmph

stormboy
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Michael Bath on 04 March 2009, 02:21:13 AM
Stormboy - have a look at this thread on Understanding Aerological Diagrams / Soundings  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/general-weather-all-topics-that-are-not-current-severe-weather-should-be-posted-here/understanding-aerological-diagrams-soundings/).   I've attached the Brisbane sounding from Sunday night. The airmass above the lowest couple of hundred metres is very dry.

GFS is the Global Forecasting System - a US weather model that you can access on various sites including Weatherzone.

Some thunderstorm cells developed mid evening though had hardly any lightning. Some heavy falls occurred between here and Ballina with 51mm at Tuckombil near Alstonville.

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Kristy Norman on 04 March 2009, 02:53:28 AM
The sky is dark here and we have just had a light shower. They are still forecasting disturbing conditions for this afternoon with the cold front coming. Hopefully the shower has settled the paddocks a little so the dust won't be too bad later. The wind is just starting to pick up. Most people around here are worried about the lightning starting fires. There were over thirty reported fires in the district with the storms that came through a month ago.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 04 March 2009, 08:49:39 AM
I had a look at the diagram but I’m in confusion state I guess I have to learn more.

Thank you MB stormboy.

Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Richary on 05 March 2009, 04:16:06 PM
Bit surprised looking at the current Brisbane radar there isn't a severe storm warning out for SE Qld. A nice line of bright red storms moving from the west to south of Brisbane. Looks like I missed an earlier one for NSW (probably for the mid north coast).

Interesting on the Grafton radar as well at the moment, the main storm has moved off the coast near Nambucca Heads but a line is reforming behind it with a very east-west alignment currently about 80km long. Formed fairly suddenly and expanding, just south of Coffs Harbour at the moment.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Michael Bath on 06 March 2009, 03:43:13 AM
It was pretty weak Richary so didn't warrant a warning. I could see some infrequent lightning to my NW into the evening but nothing close and no rain here.

Airmass has changed this morning with a dew point of 9 at the moment.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 06 March 2009, 10:06:38 AM
Those rain bands, that were supposed to be our storms, split either side of Brisabne, giving the South Coast and a further North some light Rain. We had a windy night and day resulting in what I believe to be a dust storm. Just around 1.00 pm I noticed the dust coming in over Strathpine and about 2.00pm over Redcliffe and Northern Suburbs.

I have taken a couple of shots of the dust, there is no smell of smoke just dust. The first photo is a fairly normal view, but you will see the dust in the following shots.
Title: RE: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 2009
Post by: StormGirl26 on 06 March 2009, 01:48:13 PM
On Saturday the 28th Feb and Sunday 1st March I went on a chase to Central Wheatbelt W.A to Northam/York/Toodyay
Here are a few of my photo's from the Storm
Marie
Title: Re: NSW, QLD, WA Thunderstorm and Severe Weather potential: Feb 28 - March 4 200
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 23 March 2009, 06:12:33 PM
i love the last picture storm girl it is very nice in color