Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: nmoir on 20 December 2006, 04:58:07 AM
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I am considering going for a chase on wed somewhere near coonabarabran but the CAPE doesnt look too hot , thoughts on it anyone?
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The area between Coonabarabran and Tamworth and north of there looks interesting. Shear is pretty nice, but one thing to check will be how much high cloud there is in the morning before setting out - though it may be fine.
MB
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Hi Nick and Michael,
I would place yourself within range of Tamworth even Gunnedah if required. Or wherever there is a little sunshine and heating. Wind shear is decent and if there is some heating CAPE will be higher than forecast.
I won't be able to chase - have work commitments and a dinner.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Nick,
Make that closer to Dunedoo. The 06Z run changed the whole positioning and aspect of the forecast conditions. Positioning is further south Dunedoo to Mudgee etc and the winds from 850hPa from the east are in the region Sydney to Blue Mountains. I would anticipate you would not require to go too far west.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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The cloud has me procrastinating about a chase today, another 30 mins it will too late to launch from here anyway. I like the shear, I like the coastal drizzle setup, but I wish there was sunshine in the Mudgee/Gulgong area.
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It looks like there were a few nice storms this afternoon east of Dunnedoo and south east of Mudgee. One cell in particular looked nice on the Newcastle 256 Radar forming south of Mudgee and moving all the way over Rylstone towards Muswellbrook before dying. Why I say "looked nice" is due to radar showing this cell moving more NE than other activity. Shear was certainly enough to support sustained cells throughout the afternoon.
If I didnt have to work today I would have headed out myself. Thinking about a consolation chase tomorrow however will wait to see what the sat pic looks like in the morning before heading out. Shear is another concern with a drop in wind speeds at all levels.
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Perfect target - difficult to chase some of the areas.
Glad that it was verified though. Thanks James.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Quite of a bit of lightning on tracker this morning in the NWS and NT regions. It's mostly near Barraba, but also some near Inverell to Glen Innes. Would not expect this to last much longer. Also some action offshore E and NE of Sydney.
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Hi Michael,
I would not be surprised to see the odd cell backbuild today.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Dominant cell on radar right now is hitting Armidale. Red-brown core on radar so would not be surprised to hear reports of large hail from this north moving cell.
0330z VIS:
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Armidale Airport had a wind gust to 82km/h at 3.09pm and temp dropped from 23 to 12 degrees. Large hail confirmed in the town via ABC radio - "bigger than golf balls in the east of the town, up to a foot deep in places". (abc radio report). broken windows and damage reported.
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Some hail photos by "Bravo Brad" from Armidale who posted on the WZ forums:
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/1.jpg
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/2.jpg
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/3.jpg
http://www.bravobrad.com/images/hail/4.jpg
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GFS 06z analysis sure improved the instability to more like reality - was not like this on the forecasts
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/maps/2006122106cape.png)
Williamtown sounding yesterday morning:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/thumbs/2006122100williamtown.gif) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/soundings/2006122100williamtown.png)
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Some more weather data for the Armidale hailstorm
Grafton 128km scale radar loop 0300 to 0630z:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200612210630.gif
Grafton 256km scale radar loop 0100 to 0700z:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200612210700.gif
MODIS 500m resolution satpic at 0330z:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/satpics/200612210330.jpg)
And 1km VIS loop 0030 to 0630z
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/satpics/20061221loop.gif
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I headed out yesterday with the intentions of starting in the Coolah region and moving nearby should activity take off. However after some chaser convergance I changed my plans to be near Quirindi. In hindsight I should have stuck with my initial area as the cell near Dunedoo and another further south towards Mudgee would have been nice to watch.
We watched a few different cells over the Northern Tablelands throughout the afternoon from our vantage point near Quirindi. Certainly nice boiling updraughts that had quite a bit of height to them. A cell developed over Coolah Tops however their was a lack of inflow support and slowly the updraft died. Eventually made our way towards Willow Tree to watch the back end develop of a complex near Nundle late afternoon. The line was very lightning active and the 16c outflow winds were causing further bases to form on the western edge where the air temp was hovering around 28c. The inside of one particular updraft had a green tinge so it was decided we should "explore" underneath it to see what we could find. When the base started sucking up a huge amount of scud underneath (almost to ground level) I knew it was going to get interesting. Driving through the rain curtain the rain rates became phenomenal. Visibility dropped to a few metres ahead and the hills surrounding Nundle were covered in streams of running water. There was a barrage of close Cg's all round the township and soon the roads were filling up with overflowing water. Time to get out!
A good afternoon's chase which might turn into the last one for this year. I would put pictures up however SSC is going through a wee upgrade at the moment so wont be able to for another week or two.
Some great photo's there Michael, looks like a scene from winter. Was anyone chasing up there?
On another note I have been quite amused at GFS poor attemps at progging temps. You think with time it would start to do a better job however obivously not.
James
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Hi James - I gather from the lack of comment on WZ that no-one was chasing that area - and not surprising given the poor forecasting by GFS.
Looking forward to your photos - sounds like you had a great time with that storm :) Next few days looks pretty marginal now and with Christmas stuff (ie family commitments) going on, hard to chase anyway (for me).
Newcastle 256km scale radar loop 0100 to 1000z:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200612211000.gif
regards, Michael
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Hi James,
Feel free to upload photographs onto this forum - we have much less restrictions on here!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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More photos here by 'Bravo Brad'
http://www.bravobrad.com/armhail.html
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Glad you liked them Michael.
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I live in the North of Armidale, and thought I would share some experiences. I was up a ladder cleaning leaves out of the gutters, when the storm came over the horizon from the south. I could hear a roar coming from town, to the south. We got very heavy rain, and the odd small hailstone, with fairly strong wind. The hail was very localised. We were only a couple of hundred metres away from the worst affected areas. After the storm, I needed to pass through the east side of town. All the open fields were completely white. If it had happened a couple of days later, it would have been a white Christmas. In some places, like at TAS, the golf-ball sized hail was about half a metre deep against the walls of buildings and I trudged through ice which came up to well above my ankles. About half the leaves off every tree were stripped, leaving a smell of Autumn for days. After the storm, there was an eerie low fog that hung over the creeklands. The article in the newspaper said it was because of the ice, which lay around for days, cooled the air. It was cold, quiet, and all the cars where slowly driving through the tracks made in the ice with their lights on like a European winter's evening. Windows were brocken and holes were made cladding on the eastern side of many houses on the eastern side of town. Hundreds of insurance claims have been lodged.
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Some links to more photos of the Armidale hailstorm:
http://las.new-england.net.au/2006/12/21/ (http://las.new-england.net.au/2006/12/21/)
http://las.new-england.net.au/2006/12/22/ (http://las.new-england.net.au/2006/12/22/)
http://members.dodo.net.au:80/~dheap/hailstorm/index.html (http://members.dodo.net.au:80/~dheap/hailstorm/index.html)
video clip:
Hailstorm Armidale 2006 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZTWLUzSlB4#normal)
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Thanks for digging these up Michael - the first picture of the hail fog is one of the best examples I have seen
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These photos were taken by Michal Snow of Armidale shortly after the hailstorm passed
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006122101ms.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006122101ms.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006122102ms.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006122102ms.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006122103ms.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006122103ms.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006122104ms.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006122104ms.jpg
Also some more photos on this page:
http://www.flickr.com:80/photos/pearlphotos/sets/72157594431176452/
MB
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I have some images of the Armidale hailstorm that I thought I would post, but could someone tell me how to post my images?
thankyou
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Sorry these images of the Armidale hailstorm are a bit late, but I thought I'd post them anyway. For anyone who knows Amridale, three of these images were taken at the top of Erskine street, just east of the intersection with Crest Rd, looking east. The fourth was taken looking more south-east from one of the streets between Rockvale Rd and the Glenn Innes Rd.
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A couple more YouTube video clips of the Armidale hailstorm of 21 Dec 2006
Armidale Hailstorm Two (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EguvUrnpdsA#normal)
Armidale Hailstorm (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN6pJtRdchs#normal)
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If I was a newbie and did not read the word thunderstorm I'd swear you guys were in the grips of winter. The depth of the hail is just amazing. You guys would probably not take that much notice and be accustomed to the hail frequency, but for me it's very interesting. The hail looks to be marble sized no? May I ask, what time span are we looking at to get coverage of hail at this depth? 20 minutes? Great selection of photos and videos also by all.
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Hi Mike, most likely 10-15 minutes duration. Parts of the region would have had mostly smaller hail < 3cm but there were lots of reports of bigger than golf balls and smashed windows, damaged cars which does mean 5-6cm.
I witnessed a similar event south of Tenterfield on 10 Feb 2007 (similar elevation to Armidale at about 1000 metres)
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/mb20070210.html (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/mb20070210.html)
The only other comparable "hail cover" event I've seen where large hail was involved was at Kyogle on 20th Sep 2008 - but that hail was falling for 25-30 mins from a very slow moving system - unlike the Northern Tablelands events.
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20080920.html (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20080920.html)
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Thanks, Michael. A couple of questions: (1) Are you able to say - whether by educated guess or other - how high these storms were. (2) Were they garden variety 'severe' storms and not supercellular and (3) do you have a sounding for this particular hail storm? Ta.
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Mike - there is a Newcastle sounding on page 1 of this thread. Storm tops were fairly average (about 10-11ks). I'm not sure if it was supercellular. Radar shows the cell lasted about 3 hours and was a left mover but it's a bit messy.
The Tenterfield event (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/australian-severe-storms-significant-weather-events-and-storm-chasing/eastern-nsw-se-qld-storms-10th-12th-feb-2007/15/) was similar and again not a lot of evidence that it was a supercell.
Regards, Michael