Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide => Topic started by: Jimmy Deguara on 03 January 2006, 05:06:40 AM

Title: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 03 January 2006, 05:06:40 AM
What are the thoughts of others on this forum about the potential of tropical cyclones this season. In previous years, in fact for what seems an eternity, it seems Queensland has not weathered many tropical cyclones - well below average I would think. In fact in some areas it has lead to a lengthy drought due to failed rains usually provided by tropical cyclones themselves.

Feel free to discuss your thoughts and forecasts of tropical lows and topical cyclones, the intensity ratings and tracks topical cyclones follow. We will use a separate thread for different tropical cyclones titled by the name of the tropical cyclone.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Michael Bath on 03 January 2006, 06:17:23 AM
The season has been similar to the previous several with 4 to 5 TCs in the South Indian Ocean before the new year. This season we had four with only one named system in the Australian region: Bertie-Alvin in November.

It's very much harder to predict the season ahead in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike the US North Atlantic. There does seem to be some correlation to pahses in the El Nino, with neutral conditions slightly more favoured for greater numbers of TCs.

Despite lower overall TCs in the SH in recent years, there have been a greater proportion of stronger storms.

I have no prediction for how many we can expect to see in Queensland waters  ;D
Track maps and current information are available from here: http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/

MB



Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 04 January 2006, 04:04:16 PM
I certainly hope that the Whitsundays don't get trashed by a monster cyclone this year as i'm plannig at this stage to honeymoon there in June!!!
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Geoff Thurtell on 04 January 2006, 04:51:37 PM
Hi Jeff,

There would be a very low probability of your June honeymoon being affected by cyclone activity, unless there was a very late category 5 cyclone in April-May.

In the mid '80s I went to Hook Island in the Whitsundays only 3 weeks after a category 2 cyclone went through. The only inconvenience was that the hot water system still wasn't operational.  Also, a couple of years before that, I visited Fiji only a week after a Category 3 cyclone went through. It was almost as if nothing had happened. There were plenty of flattened buildings, trees and sugar cane but the locals weren't concerned at all. It was business as usual! Most people living in cyclone affected areas just pick themselves up, dust themselves off and get on with their lives.

The exception is when the more severe category 4 or monster category 5's hit but that isn't likely in the Whitsundays very late in the season.

Regards,

Geoff
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 04 January 2006, 04:55:28 PM
I thinking more along the lines of a cat 4/5 which would strip the islands bare of trees and destroy most of the beaches not to mention storm surge effects. Plus the place where looking at is like a lot of resorts with detached cabins that wouldn't even exist after a cat 4/5 cyclone with a decent storm surge. Places like Hayman island resort would be ok as they are made from re-inforced concrete.

It would take months to re-build a lot of resorts after a cat 4/5 cyclone. Look at missihippi.

Jeff
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Geoff Thurtell on 04 January 2006, 05:21:43 PM
That was the point of my message. I do not think that the Whitsundays have ever seen a Cat 4/5 in recorded history. Unless this year is going to be a record breaker, you are pretty safe!

Regards,

Geoff
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Matthew Piper on 05 January 2006, 04:56:54 AM
Tropical Cyclone Ada was a category 4 cyclone which hit the Whitsundays in January 1970 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Ada. It caused severe damage to all of the resorts and unfortunately claimed the lives of 14 people. As to whether a cyclone like this will hit anywhere in QLD this season is hard to tell considering the extensive run of quiet years we have been having. I guess it is only a matter of time before QLD is hit again by a Cat 4/5 cyclone and unfortunately with the dramatic increase in population since the 1970's the results could be catastrophic  :(
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 05 January 2006, 06:04:09 AM
Following on from what Matt has mentioned:

In particular of concern are the coastall towns with low lying areas ie 1 - 2m above seas level. A storm surge of 5-10 metres can cause massive distruction and loss of life. Our warnings system, evacuation plans and emergency responses are quite good but let's say there was a scenario at night of a rapid instensification prior to making landfall. That in itself can disastrous.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Geoff Thurtell on 05 January 2006, 06:18:39 AM
Thank you Matt. I had forgotten about Ada!  :(   I was just relying on my memory and really should have checked more before I posted. Late night blues...
I still think that probability indicates that Jeff can safely book accomodation in the Whitsundays for June and that it will still be there when the time comes!  :)

Jimmy, you reminded me of the lasting impression that I have of Cairns, in particular. Cairns has a long, low lying waterfront area that is relatively densely populated. A severe storm surge would be disastrous for Cairns.

Let's think positive for Jeff's sake!

Regards,
Geoff
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 05 January 2006, 09:12:34 AM
At this stage we're looking at long island. The coast is very long though and severe cyclone near cairns would have little impact for the whitsundays bar higher than normal tides and a bit of beach erosion. You have to also remember that a couple of towns along the coast were wiped out in the 19th century by monster cyclones. I think one was Ingham, but no great loss really!  ;)

Jeff.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 09 January 2006, 03:28:25 AM
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Saturday, 7 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Bidyadanga southwest to Mardie.

At 8:00 pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
390 kilometres west of Kalumburu and
430 kilometres north of Broome and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 10 January 2006, 09:55:25 AM
GFS is showing a potential flood event for Perth in 3 days time if Clare heads due south as it is forcasting. Rainfall totals of 80+mm around perth are being shown. The BoM is also forcasting clare to reach at least Catogory 3 before landfall around Exmouth.


Jeff.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Cooper on 11 January 2006, 12:47:13 PM
Hi

Well Clare did cross the coast as Cat3 and has now weakened to Cat1. It will be interesting to see how the system develops in respect of rainfall over the region in the coming days. Boy, I would love to be over in the Pilbara now.


Darren
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Swirl on 28 January 2006, 04:34:44 AM
There's a developing tropical low up NE off the coast of Townsville, close to the township of Lucinda, QLD at 18.3s 147.4e. Pressure at centre is currently 998hPa as at 0730 AEST. Clockwise winds are currently at 30 knots and BoM have put out an Ocean Wind warning and Gale wind warning for Townsville to Mackay. Three day Cyclone forecast indicates moderate potential for Cyclonic formation by Sunday.

Quote
IDQ20008
SECURITE
2 UPDATED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2140 UTC 26 January 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of  998 hectopascals located
from an observation at Myrmidon Reef centred at  262100 UTC near 18.3 south
147.4 east and slow moving. Position  Fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle and 120
nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots over the next 6
to 18 hours.

Clockwise winds at 20 to 30 knots increasing to 30 to 40 knots over the next 6
to 18 hours. 

Rough seas becoming very rough with increasing easterly and northwesterly swells

Forecast position at 270600UTC 18.5 degrees south and 148.8 degrees east with
central pressure 996 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.

Forecast position at 271800UTC 18.5 degrees south and 149.6 degrees east with
central pressure 994 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

This tropical low is pretty much centred over Myrmidon Reef at the moment and is expected that it will move E, or ENE as it progresses.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Swirl on 29 January 2006, 04:01:35 AM
Does it look to anyone else as if there'll be three potential Cyclones forming across the top of Australia very soon! That tropical low over land on NT looks to be developing a clockwise wind pattern on satellite? Another potential formation in the Gulf of Carpenteria as well as that TL north east of Townsville..

Cheers,

Kerry.
http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=satellite/sat_bw_aus_anim.gif (http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=satellite/sat_bw_aus_anim.gif)
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 29 January 2006, 03:04:09 PM
Hi Kerry,

You may wish to edit the animation link to a permanent with credit of course. The link does not work for me.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Swirl on 01 February 2006, 07:45:06 AM

Hi Jimmy,

You may wish to edit the animation link to a permanent with credit of course. The link does not work for me.

I haven't been able to figure out what you meant by this - I need some software to shrink the file of an animated gif, I haven't got anything on my pc to do this right now. The file I saved is 333 kb.

On another note, I'm wondering what your thoughts might be of Jim slingshotting back towards our coastline are? He looks set to go right around New Caledonia and come back. Pressure in Jim's centre is decreasing - now at 955 hPa, so he's still gaining strength.. The info of the Bureau of Meteorolgy, Weatherzone etc don't say much at all. The Ocean wind warning from Fiji has only basic data on Jims current movement and strength.

Has anyone heard news from Noumea at all?

Cheers,

Kerry.

Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Michael Bath on 01 February 2006, 10:33:30 AM
Hi Kerry, it does not look too encouraging based on the latest info from Fiji:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0241 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 20.6 South
166.5 East at 310000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery
with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the
next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of
centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.

System now appears to become sheared as continues it drifting
southeast. CDO now begining to become detached from LLCC. Cyclone
lies in northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low
near Norfolk island. Outflow restricted in SE quadrant. CIMMS
indicates Jim is moving into an increased sheared environment to the
south. Dvorak analysis based on CDO yields T4.5. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0.
FT based on DT yielding T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24hrs. Interaction with the New
Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia is expected
to weaken Jim further. Global models generally agree on a southeast
track with rapid weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.8S 168.9E mov SE at 15kt with 65kt
close to the centre 
24hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.0S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 50kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.3S 172.2E mov SE at 14kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.3S 172.1E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 310800 UTC.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: bud on 17 March 2006, 02:08:35 PM
Jimmy,Looks like we might have a cyclone forming now. It will be named larry and is off Queensland.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 20 March 2006, 07:19:50 AM
Tropical cyclone Larry is hovering between category 3 and category 4 and headed straight for the Queensland Coast.

Check the map here:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.html

Michael Bath updates information on that page as well.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 21 March 2006, 02:20:09 AM
Tropical Cyclone Larry is making landform this morning as I type and is already causing intense damage including smashed windows, felled trees, and obviously it will create a storm surge closer to the eye. It is depicted as Cateogry 4 - severe tropical cyclones with winds around the centre at 290km/h

The graphic of depicted path according to the Bureau of Meteorlogy:



Here was the latest statement about the time of landfall:

----------------------------------IDQ20008
PAN PAN
1 CORRECTED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2007 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191800
UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm
in the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise
winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots
within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre.
Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots 
At 201800 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots.
 

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.  Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels.  Other ships please use either
email to [email protected] or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
 
WEATHER BRISBANE
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 21 March 2006, 03:58:55 AM
According to one source, Tropical Cyclone Larry has intensified to a Category 5 Tropical Cyclone with a central pressure of 920hPa. Any word on this?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 21 March 2006, 04:09:56 AM
A new tropical named Tropical Cyclone Wati has been located in the Coral Sea according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography).

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Projected path of Wati as forecast by the JTWC
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Swirl on 21 March 2006, 07:37:05 AM
According to one source, Tropical Cyclone Larry has intensified to a Category 5 Tropical Cyclone with a central pressure of 920hPa. Any word on this?

Looks like TC Larry became a 5 just briefly prior to landfall looking at the synoptic charts.

Cheers,

Kerry.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 22 March 2006, 05:35:44 PM
The devastation of this tropical cyclone is intense and widespread. The east coast of Queensland has been rearing for something like this to occur but so many seasons have produced relatively few tropical cyclones of severe category with a direct strike to the populated part of the east coast of Queensland. Current estimates are of the order of hundreds of millions of dollars. The devastation includes the banana and the sugar cane industry. The region surrounding and including Innisfail seems to be the worst affected.

I wonder whether tornadoes were spawned creating localised intense damage tracks.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 22 March 2006, 05:40:45 PM
Yet another tropical cyclone named Floyd has developed off to the NW in the Indian Ocean. Feel free to name in the subject of each message and discuss further the developments and characteristics of this and other tropical cyclones.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 23 March 2006, 03:51:13 AM
Some media coverage:

News including pictures and video clips in the following links.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=92365

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200603/s1597585.htm

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Michael Bath on 24 March 2006, 06:53:32 AM
1km VIS images of Larry

0630z and 2130z 19th March ( 4.30pm 19th and 7.30am 20th QLD time)


Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Michael Bath on 24 March 2006, 06:55:36 AM
Larry making landfall
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Michael Bath on 24 March 2006, 07:34:43 AM
Radar loop can be accessed from here:

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tc2006.htm

regards, Michael

Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 24 March 2006, 12:01:22 PM
Hi Michael,

Thanks for those - they are absolutely awesome images!

A thought came to my mind though about observing the weather as Tropical Cyclone Larry approached. The spiral bands would be interested to watch considering the motion is towards but the bands are curved!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Geoff Thurtell on 26 March 2006, 07:43:13 AM
Michael,
I join Jimmy in thanking you for the links to those spectacular images.

Jimmy, do you mean that the cyclone is moving towards you but the spiral bands are curving away from you, if you are standing watching the cyclone approach?

One thing that I find interesting is that on the radar, after landfall of Larry, all of the heaviest rainfall was to the north of the eye along the coast between Innisfail and Cairns. Given the direction of the winds, I would have thought the opposite would have been the case. What is the explanation for this?

Geoff
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 29 March 2006, 08:27:23 AM
We now have another serious Cyclone. This time it's Tropical Cyclone Glenda off the north west coast. It's going through a period of intensification right now and is expected to be catagory 4 soon. It's track is a dangerous one for the coastal communities in that region as it looks like hugging the coast for at least the next 36 hours.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 29 March 2006, 01:31:14 PM
If you have some nice satellite pictures from tropical cyclone Glenda feel free to post them with reference to their source.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Michael Bath on 30 March 2006, 02:30:48 AM
Here's a 1km VIS just before sunset 28th March when the cyclone was about 925hPa. It appears to have bottomed out at 910hPa overnight.

MB

Click to enlarge
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 31 March 2006, 03:32:17 PM
Glenda looks like it has lived up to a lot of it's potential strength. So far Mardie station has been side swipped by the cyclone and had a 180km/h gust recorded. The eye wall itself should at least have had gusts to 225km/h. Maybe Onslow will get some of the eyewall within the next coulpe of hours.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 01 April 2006, 02:54:43 AM
It was funny last night as I was listening to news reports of the cyclone and they said it was strengthening as it was approaching Onslow and would go on to hit Exmouth! Exmouth wasn't even in the path on the forcast map and as for strengthening, well it was actually weakening. Unless someone had a regulation wind guage out on a ship in the path of the eyewall I believe that as it passed Mardie station it was a strong Cat 3 cyclone only. Mardie recorded a 180 km/h gust within 50 km of the eye. Onslow appears to have an almost direct hit by the eyewall and recorded only a 160km/h gust. Granted though it wasn't quite in the best sector for strong winds. Still it appears to have degraded to a Cat 2 by the time it reached onslow. I very much doubt the offical Cat 4 rating all the way to Onslow.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 02 April 2006, 02:44:48 PM
Google Earth and tropical cyclone Larry

http://www.googleearthhacks.com/dlf...clone-Larry.htm


Tropical cyclone Larry video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9LHT7RRp-8

More information video and pictures here:

Seven News
http://seven.com.au/news/storyinfo_images_cyclonelarry

Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/19/AR2006031900302.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/19/AR2006031900302_2.html

CBS news
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/20/world/main1419544.shtml


Any other links and video feel free to add more.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 24 April 2006, 08:04:22 PM
Tropical Cyclone Monica developed in the Gulf of Carpentaria and has intensified to a category 5 as it continues to progress west. The main populated area to possibly be affected is Darwin.

Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 26 April 2006, 08:44:19 AM
Is anything left at Cape Wessel? There shouldn't be a building standing according to the alledged intensity of Monica. Again i'm not overly impressed by the measurements from this system. Either Monica was never a catagory 4 at landfall or it weakened at a phenominal pace. Maningrida aero only managed an 80knt gust and it was within sufficent distance of the eyewall in my opinion of a catagory 4 cyclone to have higher gust's than it did. I'd say it maybe managed to reach cat 4 but I personalt doubt ti ever made cat 5. The news last night nearly caused me to choke on my drink when they announced it would devestate Darwin and that it had recorded wind gusts of 350 km/h! Statements like that just prove that they really have no idea. As for the devorak method I say, dump it and start using planes like the rest of the developed world! Maybe then we'll start to see realistic wind speeds in tropical systems.

Or maybe it should have the same rating tecnique as tornadoes. If it levels to F5 intensity then it must have been F5. But if it was never measured or never destroyed anything than it was never officially rated.
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Matthew Piper on 26 April 2006, 01:49:20 PM
Yeah it certainly didnt demonstrate features I would have anticipated of a category 5 at landfall and I am amazed at just how quickly it disintegrated today. The structure of the eye however as it passed Cape Wessell was by far the best I have seen of any Australian Cyclone this season and among the best you can get in the world. It left the eyes of other so called cat 5 cyclones for dead and the wind speed ratings given by JTWC were among the strongest I have ever seen them issue here or in the northern Pacific. I think at one stage they were going for sustained winds of 155 kts gusting to 195 kts  :o It would of been great though if we had Hurricane Hunters like the US to find out the true wind speeds and barometric pressure.

The media certainly has no idea when it comes to reporting weather events. They are so sensationalistic its not funny :(
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Geoff Thurtell on 01 May 2006, 05:58:17 AM
There was some significant damage to infrastructure. One of my customers at work is Alcan Gove (Nhulunbuy). As of 28th April they do not have any phone or fax communication and email worked intermittently. The communication towers between Darwin and Nhulunbuy took a hammering and it may be many weeks before full reliable services are restored. My contacts at Nhulunbuy are just so relieved that they didn't cop a direct hit from Monica, even if she wasn't a Cat 5!
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 28 July 2006, 04:18:30 PM
Hi,

Given Michael and a few others have a serious interest in the tropical cyclone season, perhaps a summary of this season is in order given it was far more active than the past several seasons particularl in the Coral Sea and Queensland coastline.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 09 August 2006, 05:16:39 PM
John,

Welcome to the forum! Excellent summary - thank you for taking the time to put it together. Very much appreciated. I did find it interesting in regards to the forecast and correlations.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara