Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Jimmy Deguara on 22 November 2006, 12:40:49 PM
-
Hi,
Given the lack of storms and the seriousness of the fire emergency, perhaps you can discuss the current bushfires affectign the blue mountains and the region around Putty. It seems to never end - we are told that areas have been burned out but now the fuel has regrown. The hot extremely dry conditions will continue to make it ideal for dangerous fires. At least you can say this time the fires were not deliberately lit. Lightning from the most recent storms that affected central through to northern NSW 13th November seemed to have been the culprit.
My question is, I know it can be difficult at times but how were the initial much smaller fires not contained by water bombing? I think the future with higher resolution remote sensing via satellites may assist in this process.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
My question is, I know it can be difficult at times but how were the initial much smaller fires not contained by water bombing? I think the future with higher resolution remote sensing via satellites may assist in this process.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
I was thinking this myself last night in between taking breaths of bushfore smoke with isolated pockets of oxygen and nitrogen while lying in bed. I know nothing about the tools of the trade, but what sort of surveillance does the RFS do after dry electrical storms? Surely it is not hard in this day and age to combine information on lightning activity over fire risk areas. Surely they are in a position now to go over these regions with a fine tooth comb to identify spot fires from lightning strikes as quickly as possible - doesn't seem as though it would be rocket science to me. Any RFS people here who know how these things work?
....or are the big out of control fires justifying the need for further funding.
-
Smoke now into the blue on Sydney radar :-X
-
The fire plume indicated a major blaze this afternoon. It was hot with NW winds and obviously some elevated convection around - perhaps to lead to more bushfires.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
HI guys , i ve spent the last few days covering the fires in the blue mts , yesterday at 12 midday , BOOOOOOOM! the grose valley fire erupted like a volcano , the only comparable fire explosion like that ive seen was canberra. it moved 5km as a front in about 30 mins , i was near mt tomah.
the rfs use aircaft with heat sensing tech to keep an eye on fires but the task of knocking even spotfires or lightning strike fires is beyond any helicopter , i have seen a fire crew spend over an hour and two entire tank fulls of water trying to put out one tree burning from the inside , choppers dont black out fires only cool them down and i can things getting political if they assigned an aircrane to every storm that moves through the state of course with the pathetic storm season weve had so far maybe that is possible
any way here is a couple of pix from yesterday note the chopper in the lower frame of the pyrocumulous
nick
-
and here is one more
-
and this is a pic of it ripping up the grose valley 3 days ago
-
also these images are copyright Nick Moir / The Sydney Morning Herald (c)2006 and are for viewing only on this forum
sorry to be a nerd just incase someone decides to steal them and post them on another web site
nick
-
Thanks for those pics Nick - spectacular !
MB
-
Nick, you've had more ground experience than anyone around fires so correct me if i'm wrong but really the RFS doesn't try and extinguise most fires like these because they just can't can they. Even in the early stages i would think that the odds of extinguising a fire with such dry fuel would be next to impossible. They're main job would be the preservation of life and property while the fire runs it's course. Windshifts imo would be the greatest weapon against fires and not water.
-
Ok we'll keep politics and decision making out of it.
The fires look very hot from your pics Nick - a concern to anyone in its path. I am assuming you were on the western side of the fires on Bells Line of Road? The pyrocumulus on the Canberra bushfires were massive! The helicopters look like toys next to the fires!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Canberra was like 10 of these at once , a gargantuan anavoidable front , what surprised me yesterday was the speed that it went from small white plumes of fairly boring smoke to broiling mass of fire and ash in 10 mins , the winds had been strong and steady from west nth west for a few hours so i guess the fire just got a good uphill run and heavy fuel loads.
the rfs are saying monday could be bad but central tablelands forcast is for easterly winds so i am not impressed but thursday has 40c temps in penrith so perhaps nth westrly winds moving through in a bit of strength then .
has anyone used the haines index much and could explain how and what it shows? , i have been comparing it to bad fire days to see if it much use
-
Hi Nick,
This link seems to break it up well:
http://www.fs.fed.us/r2/fio/moreinfo/haines.htm
I guess an index is simply that - just a index of scores that help simplify for others the potential of something to happen. It surprised me about the link to instability though I must admit yesterday was reasonably unstable. Does this mean it aids in smoke to rise more freely in thermals and remove the mass of particles that could 'choke' fires to a certain extent?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
I was wondering that , perhaps by being able to pull plumes up and away from the fire it helps create a concentrated low pressure area , and so increases the localised winds into the fire?
-
just read the link and so this will be a helpful index , but jimmy how high would 850mb be in the atmosphere? 2km-3km?
-
Hi Nick,
Just for clarification's sake, we are talking pressure levels rather than actual heights here. We can however attribute 850hPa would probably be approximately in the order of 1.5km. I attempted to get a good aerological diagram that had both pressures and heights listed on it but failed to find one. Anyone else do see one, feel free to attach an image of one on here.
well I found it actually:
(http://www.metlink.org/images/pics/mi060203224939.gif)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
I attempted to get a good aerological diagram that had both pressures and heights listed on it but failed to find one. Anyone else do see one, feel free to attach an image of one on here
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Don't know whether or not you consider them 'good' Jimmy, but any of the BoM soundings have this information ???
-
Hi David,
I had a limited period of time for searches. Strangely enough I did not consider them haha and they never showed up as you suggest in the google search for Australia. Nevetheless, the above sounding shows it.
Goes to show how often I utilise the BoM soundings haha or lack thereof.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Surely you guys know of this resource ?????
http://soundings.bsch.au.com/index.html
You can plot any date or get the current soundings, and the plots have the extra info on them.
MB
-
RFS have reported many lightning started fires especially around mudgee , if people chasing in that area in the next couple of weeks i would expect some road closures.
Mid-Western Basin Creek South west of Mudgee 3 Bushfire activity 1 Being Controlled 29/11 : 05:09AM
Mid-Western The Ponds South west of Mudgee 3 Bushfire activity 1 Contained 29/11 : 05:00AM
Mid-Western Wallaby Rock South of Mudgee 3 Bushfire activity 5 Being Controlled 29/11 : 04:46AM
Mid-Western Mt Frome East of Mudgee GR 560829 3 Bushfire activity 5 Being Controlled 29/11 : 04:38AM
Mid-Western Bylong Complex 9Km West of Bylong
info from www.rfs.nsw.gov.au
-
Hi Nick,
I was wandering why there was so much smoke around Mudgee! I sincerely hope there is not major road closures - stuff that.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
this afternoon 2 fires in the area have threatened homes and 3 of the fires have been declared section 44 bushfire emergencies , if you want to know about road closures i would suggest looking at thrta websites
-
Just a regrettable note from Narrabri to say that now the Pilliga Forest is burning as well. Presumably the fire was started by lightning on Tuesday night. The sky here was black yesterday. The RFS has already had their hands full with another fire near Mt Kaputar and now this new fire in the forest has burned out 16000 Ha on its first day. GFS looks good for rain on the weekend, so fingers crossed.
My mate Chris and I got some great photos of the smoke column yesterday, hopefully Chris will offload them today.
-
pilliga was burning last year too , and house was lost near Coonabarabran last night , rfs will be exhausted and the season has really only just begun
-
The fire last year "only" burned out 6000Ha, this new fire is already 10K Ha larger than that - after one day.
-
wow! it must have really cranked it up , last years fire was burning for about a week or more if i recall
the extended gfs on weatherzone.com.au shows that around the 8th of dec another nasty load of bushfire weather could be expected , this far out i guess it would be a little guesswork but it shows 3 days of it in arow
Question to forum. How conservative would these forcasts be this far out?
-
Nick,
I was amazed and very impressed by your "pyrocumulus" photos the other day. I had never seen anything like it until yesterday with this fire burning in the forest. We would have had to drive right around to Baradine or somewhere to get the best photos, but even from our drive out towards Pilliga we could see some of the bright, white smoke clouds thousands of metres tall. We saw a jet fly over the area, I bet the passengers got a good eyefull of this fire.
We were out there a couple of weekends ago admiring the variety of life, we saw bettongs and wallabies and echidnas, goannas and all manner of things. And now this fire's on the loose, poor critters. At least the next week looks significantly cooler than the last week.
Dave
-
Latest RFS update put the fire at over 100,000 Ha.
Bloody by jingo's! Poor bush creatures.
-
Hi David and Nick,
With so many storms and intense hot lightning strikes, it is just inevitable that many fires are lit up and perhaps merge into major blazes. I doubt I have seen a year where so many bushfires have been lit by lightning on such a scale. Usually storms are very rare in bushfire weather - the wrong combination I guess.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Although I suspect they made a typo, maybe the fire is 10,000 Ha.
-
I dont know about everybody else but with the sheer number of fires and some of them being very large already , you get the impression as soon as a shocker day ( 45c+ and 80kph+ NW) winds comes along things will get dicey in alot of places at once , though coperburg says they have ample resources i reckon when they all make big runs the RFS will be swamped. fires like the blue mountains fire tie down huge resources and thats just one fire and by no way the biggest , just in a dangerous position.
ps thanks dave , it was quite a site , volcanic. looks like youve got a little CAPE about on Sat up north , maybe west of you , maybe more fire starters?
-
Hi Nick,
I guess when they become overwhelmed, it leads back to who is most important in property to save:)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi All,
If you're interested, we've posted some photos of the Pilliga Forest fire on our web site:
http://narrabriweather.net/events/PilligaNov06.html
Cheers,
Dave
-
Very impressive fires - certainly taps the atmosphere sufficiently to be affected by shear.
Where is the rain?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
I was at the Wallaby Rocks fire , south of mudgee yesterday. itt created pyrocululous , sent up a weak storm and then lightning started a new fire 2km south east of containment lines , was getting exasperating for firefighters out there.