Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: David C on 14 November 2006, 11:31:13 AM
-
While this strong system might see snow falling perhaps even on the central tablelands of NSW, I'm more interested in the weather in the 'warm sector'. Way up north, I wonder if there might even be the potential for tornadic storms? Hard to say since, with such a dynamic system, since things will evolve quite rapidly. It's hard to say whether the surface trajectories will be favourable or not. The general area to the north of Bundaberg (well NW) appears to have the best windshear profile at this stage. Worth monitoring. Airfares are around $265.00 return to Brisbane :P factor in car hire.
-
Hi David,
Tornadoes? I know the shear is going to be ideal but besides the moisture source, the shear was similar to yesterday's . 13th November event (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=187.msg1243#new). Another difference in some ways are the 700-500hPa lapse rates are less than experienced yesterday and the advancing short wave seems to be well back. Will these be negatives?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi Jimmy, Sunday's run had N winds at 925 and veering just to the north-west at 850. Under those circumstances I would think that tornadoes would be possible with supercells. Obviously (and expectedly) this situation has changed in subsequent runs.
Hi David,
Tornadoes? I know the shear is going to be ideal but besides the moisture source, the shear was similar to yesterday's . 13th November event (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=187.msg1243#new). Another difference in some ways are the 700-500hPa lapse rates are less than experienced yesterday and the advancing short wave seems to be well back. Will these be negatives?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi David,
Yes certainly deep northerly flow would have done the trick.
And of course we have the potential for November snow for the Central Tablelands (and obviously southern ranges as well). Paul Graham mentioned to me that there is the potential of hail on Thursday including hail drifts. I would not exlude something happening with the advance of the upper trough tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi,
It is just on 6am DST. A storm already has eruped in the early favourable windshear and moisture profile WSW of Bunderberg. Watch this develop rapidly and move towards and off the coast in a few hours. Storm already moving at 70km/h. Somehow not anchored in the flow? Slightly higher based?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hello
I heard on the rado this morning that meteorologists have advised that this is the strongest cold front to occur in November in 10 years. I am hearing reports that small hail and local cold air mass thunderstorms will be a feature behind this front in parts of Victora.
I also read with fasconation that snow last fell at Oberon in November 1996 and the last time it snowed at Katoomba was November 16, 1986. If the cold front is as strong as stated, this would indeed be another significant but rare weather event for this spring.
As for those storms Central Queensland. I would love to go there but have to work.
Harley
-
Hi,
Another couple of radar frames:
Jimmy Deguara
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 05:52:07 AM
Hi,
I wonder if this radar exaggerates - it seems to be tellign a different story from Gympie radar.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 06:11:22 AM
Satellite images look impressive.
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 06:35:51 AM
Another impressive satellite image - check the anvil shields! It looks as though they are forming a complex - activity so early - cap too weak as I suspected.
-
Yes well, I woke up at about 6:05 (QLD time) this morning to hear a few booms, looked out the window and it was dark to the north. radio said there was a severe thunderstorm warning and I thought really.. at this time. I knew we were in for something the day before, but I don't know what's going to happen? Does anybody know what could happen becuase I would really like to know.
There was even reports of snow....what.. no just small hail, definitely an exciting day to come. Lightning tracker is going ballistic. Oh and the weather maps look interesting also.
-
Hi Steve,
I think action will mostly be early - it is dependent on the abundance of moisture or lack of it as to how much activity will occur and where. So where did the hail occur - where are you situated again or wasn't it in your area? I am interested to see if these are LP cells - low precipitation cells.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
I live about a kilometre WNW of Maroochydore CBD, and have an unrestricted view to the north but not the south!, hail fell around the Coolum and Noosa areas, I heard on the radio as people reported very heavy rain and then hail began falling, not too much but it was reported, however we missed out only a lot of loud echoing thunder around, at one point I suggested unplugging the phones but it wasn't necessary since the storms moved out to sea.
I'll keep in touch, hmm seems to be a storm in Gympie at the moment better look out for that one.
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 07:50:39 AM
Oh and I keep hearing thunder yet the radar shows that there isn't any storms above me!, is the radar broken or something becuase I keep hearing thunder. At the moment it is cloudy.
-
Anyone monitor the day's happenings up there?? - have been out of the office all day and at the moment (6:10pm DST) can see that a rather intense cell has moved off the Gold Coast. And, yep, baseballs in the early morning,,,,,now we're talking!!!!!
-
Unfortunately I was offline from About 12PM (QLD time), somehow my internet connection failed or something and I had a hard time getting online and I drove my self crazy to see whats happening, Have been online since about 5:30 PM (QLD time). I saw a warning on the television but it didn't effect us.
Anyway saw on the news of a "Wild Storm" moving through Brisbane which ripped off roves, dumped large hail and caused flooding rain. Just as well it miss us anyway, but then again I hope for a lightning show tonight.
This morning it remained mostly cloudy, it wasn't until about 11:30 when it cleared up. It got very dark to the north one stage and I heard a bit of thunder but that was it. What a weird day.
Any chance of further development?
-
I couldn't chase due to other commitments but still managed to watch some nice activity that passed through the far north of the Northern Rivers this afternoon. Times are included if you want to match with radar.
First pic at 15:08 is the back end of the hailstorm that hit the Tweed.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111501.jpg)
Next strong cell developed southwest of the Tweed one. Pics are at 15:55, 16:05, 16:19 and 16:22
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111502.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111503.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111504.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111505.jpg)
This last cell passed across the Northern Gold Coast and is still going a few hours later way to my east. Times are 17:21 and 17:38
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111506.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111507.jpg)
An even some lightning using a 200mm lens with the storm about 120km away
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111508.jpg)
Brisbane 64km radar loop for the main storm that hit:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200611150430.gif
MB
-
Hi guys,
There were a few snow showers at Shooters Hill from as early as 4pm and perhaps before we got there. The first dump we saw was the best heavy but not torrential or very large flakes. The snow was quite wet - temperature had not dropped enough.
I will see if I can get pictures online or if Michael can get it done on my behalf - just a few mind me - concentrated on video this time around and the snow was melting on the camera so I was pre-occupied keeping it as dry as possible.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Posted on: November 16, 2006, 12:38:37 AM
Just a few pics from the snow chase yesterday Shooters Hill:
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/thumbs/2006/1115jd03.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/photos/2006/1115jd03.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/thumbs/2006/1115jd05.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/photos/2006/1115jd05.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/thumbs/2006/1115jd10.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/photos/2006/1115jd10.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/thumbs/2006/1115jd14.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/photos/2006/1115jd14.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/thumbs/2006/1115jd18.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com.au/photography/photos/2006/1115jd18.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
As they say, one mans gain is another mans loss. I geuss se Qld is making up for some pretty boring years recently. So did the BoM call this a tornadic supercell? That would mean there was a tornado touchdown somewhere then but where?
-
Dear all
I was watching the Mt Stapleton radar at 1.15 to 1.37 pm Wednesday (During my lunch break) and watched the thunderstorm cell develop NW of Brisbane as a single thunderstorm. I noted that it had rotation in its initial stages but I did not see any hook echos. I was satisfied that it could at least contain big hail (at least 7 cm range at that stage) but it was affecting rural areas.
I noted that the worst of the storm (Called a "worst last type storm" - based on a book I have at home on Tornadoes and tornadic supercells) was at the rear of the cell and it looked like an American style supercell at one stage. The light rain was at the front and the heavy rain and the areas containing the big hail was at the rear. It was tracking SE towards Brisbane at reasonable speed.
Later, I saw on the TV news that it caused damage in Brisbane and somebody had filmed golf ball size hail. A glace at its wall cloud during the news storey suggested to me that it was more a HP supercell or similar structure and its characteristics appeared to have altered somewhat by the time it reached Brisbane city.
Harley
-
Hi Harley and John,
Definitely HP supercell - nice gust front from an image I saw. I am assuming Michael Bath's was a right mover split and seems to be more like LP/classic in structure - obviously we require more information.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi John,
Perhaps I will allow Michael to pass further details as I have not check radar (have not had the time) - just trying to recall that the cell he photographed was a split right mover. There has been golf ball sized hail reported from that event that adds credibility to the argument of an LP / classic style supercell. Definitely not a massive HP supercell.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Does tornadic really infer that a storm produced a tornado? or is it rather the ability and structure of a storm TO produce a tornado
The definition of a tornadic supercell is a supercell that produces a confirmed tornado touchdown. This is the definition that the BoM uses as well as NOAA, NWS and the SPC. So if there is no confirmed touchdown then it's not a tornadic supercell.
-
I know this was a great event in terms of the storm severity but really that supercell a week or so ago had a far nicer appearance on radar than these cells. Granted they were supercells but the prior event still takes the cake for me in regard to the shear beauty of it's appearance on radar.
-
Jeff,
You are so correct. It goes to show that shear does not always equal the most impressive storms. Low condensation levels and backing are a very important component often lacking in this country as well as interactions with progressing boundaries.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
The right mover from the split west of Brisbane crossed the Coolangatta Tweed region just after 3pm.
This photo at 0408z is of the Tweed cell (check matching radar below)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111501.jpg)
The other storm I photographed and I had a proper view of, formed in the hills north of Nimbin and tracked across to just south of Byron Bay.
This photo at 0519z is of the Byron cell (check matching radar below)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006111504.jpg)
Radar signatures indicates supercell for both.
The newspaper reported that hail to golf ball size fell at Suffolk Park (just south of Byron Bay) just after 4pm.
-
Hi,
This is the view James Chambers had of the cell assuming it was the same Michael Bath got from the rear!
http://james.bsch.au.com/gallery/151106
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi John,
That image with the pileus was just 3 mins after the one above, so a renewed updraft. The cell quickly weakened once it passed out to sea. The low level features dissapeared - this image at 0532z
-
Brisbane 128km radar loop 0000z to 0830z
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200611150830.gif
Morning and evening soundings for Brisbane:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/soundings/2006111500brisbane.png
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/soundings/2006111512brisbane.png
-
And thank you again :)