Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Jeff Brislane on 24 October 2011, 03:41:50 PM

Title: NSW Storms 24-25 October 2011
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 24 October 2011, 03:41:50 PM

Hi All,

The next two days look interesting for the possibility of some severe storms in eastern NSW. Tomorrow looks like storms along the Western slopes of the Central Tablelands with 2500 CAPE and a -6 Lifted Index and Tuesday looks good for storms from Sydney north to Newcastle with potential for severe storms along the change/trough with 2500 CAPE and -4 Lifted Index forcast. There are various problems though with the forcast so I guess we'll see what pans out.

Jeff.

Title: Re: NSW Storms 24-25 October 2011
Post by: David C on 24 October 2011, 04:50:41 PM

Hi Jeff,

Looks like something's still up with data going into GFS somewhere from southern central inland NSW, as it is consistently over-estimating the low-level moisture. Today at Young, for example, DPs struggled to get above 10, which is in stark contrast to the broad area of 18 that GFS would have us believe.

So the instability probably wont quite be so large as we'd like, but I agree that the central-west / southwest slopes ranges should fire up later. TTs are ok across a broad area of southern/central inland NSW through the late evening too.

Tuesday looks more interesting for sure and closer to home :)