Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Jeff Brislane on 15 October 2011, 08:36:59 AM
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Hi all,
I'll get straight to the point, tomorrow looks set to be a whopper of a day for South East Qld with the potential for a large hail supercell outbreak! I'm really impressed by the forcast and i'm seriously considering driving up there tonight! If anyones driving up from sydney let me know.
So far the forcast is indicating -8 Lifted index, around 2000-2500 CAPE, plebnty of turning wind shear and a nice dry slot in the upper levels. Batten down the hatches in Brisbane area tomorrow.
Jeff.
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Hi all,
I'll get straight to the point, tomorrow looks set to be a whopper of a day for South East Qld with the potential for a large hail supercell outbreak! I'm really impressed by the forcast and i'm seriously considering driving up there tonight! If anyones driving up from sydney let me know.
So far the forcast is indicating -8 Lifted index, around 2000-2500 CAPE, plebnty of turning wind shear and a nice dry slot in the upper levels. Batten down the hatches in Brisbane area tomorrow.
Jeff.
I'd be there in a flash if work, family, petrol, time where not an issue. I agree hailers are certain. Reminds me of 19th October 2004.
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Certainly shaping up for a nice day up this way today. I'm heading out and chasing to the north of Brisbane today. Not exactly sure yet but I like the area which MT suggested on the other fourm of Childers/Bundy but I also like the area around Gympie (not ideal for chasing). Shear is pretty nice and the atmosphere will rapidly destabilise over the next 4-6hrs.
Will keep you guys posted.
Macca
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Things seem to be panning out a bit further south initially than the models were suggesting yesterday. There appears to be two potential supercells along the border ranges, a larger high precipitation looking cell south of a line west of Kyogle and a more discrete cell north of Nimbin. If things go according to the models than more severe cells should initiate on the northern side of the line currently heading east towards the Gold Coast and north Brisbane and the sunshine coast hinterland should be in for lots of activity over the next few hours.
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I should clarify that the current severe looking cells are on the NSW side of the border ranges.
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will post pics up as soon as i get them off my camera, out here at Canugra we got a nice wild storm.. had hail mostly pea sized with a few larger stones (about cherry tomato size) strong wind and lots of close lightning.
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Just a few shots of today's supercell.
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/IMG_3150.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/DSCF2005.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/DSCF2004.jpg)
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Then came the hail, still working on the photos so I can post them. What an afternoon.
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/IMG_3172.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/IMG_3168.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/IMG_3181.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/IMG_3186.jpg)
Fortunately we were on the tail end of the storm.
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observed a couple of the storms Nth of Bris this arvo
Caboulture storm after it appears to split, left split inflow at 4:50pm app
(http://i979.photobucket.com/albums/ae277/DavJR17/2011-10-15%20storms/storm1inflownthsplit4-50pm.jpg)
Bellthorpe storm 4-55pm app
(http://i979.photobucket.com/albums/ae277/DavJR17/2011-10-15%20storms/storm2smll.jpg)
This storm seemed to get organised for a brief period and produced at the very least a funnel for app 1 minute before disapating
-5:01pm app video shot with funnel inprogress
(http://i979.photobucket.com/albums/ae277/DavJR17/2011-10-15%20storms/Storm-2inflow1funnl5-02.jpg)
I'll try and get the vid contrasted a bit and see what is visible.
And a bit after a shot from my missus
(http://i979.photobucket.com/albums/ae277/DavJR17/2011-10-15%20storms/Bellthorpelightningv2sml.jpg)
Paul D
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Jason Paterson and I chased yesterday though didn't go too far. Spent most of the afternoon just north of Casino. Local cumulus blocked developing storms for a while then the contrast was pretty terrible but it eventually become better by mid-afternoon.
A storm developed near Tabulam and other activity NW of Kyogle.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101501.jpg)
They struggled for moisture at first but then took off with solid high tops - though the windshear really didn't help them develop further locally. Looks like the forecast wind shear profile did not eventuate.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101502.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101503.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101504.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101505.jpg)
We met up with Bec Armatyge and enjoyed a barrage of CGs from the blob of storms over the far NW of the Northern Rivers / NE part of Northern Tablelands.
These were taken with a lightning trigger.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101506.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101507.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/photos/2011101508.jpg)
Would have been nice to get some hail too, but not to be.
MB
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This would have to be the best shot of yesterdays storm I have seen, as I said earlier we had some good rotation within the cell over Bracken Ridge as it approached Moreton Bay.
The photo is by Tracy King courtesy of the Courier Mail,
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/stormoverBrackenRidge.jpg)
Col
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The webcams got a great show across the region:
http://webcams.bsch.au.com/gallery/20111015.html (http://webcams.bsch.au.com/gallery/20111015.html)
Looks like you got the biggest hail Col - nice :)
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Having kept an eye on a cell to the south, I ducked outside to take the first photograph which showed some impressive structure of the Caboolture/Bribie Island cell.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fl-hNpbUwis/Tpo_mB4qCHI/AAAAAAAAAKg/CUJv7cxizBk/s800/D7K_0678.JPG)
From then on I moved location so I could get in a better spot to take photos. A new storm was rapidly approaching from the SW, but just as it was about to hit, it weakened slightly and nudged south, so all we got from it were brief gusts of wind and large rain drops.
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-FDus2tL74n0/Tpo_z6de1LI/AAAAAAAAAKo/FqnXlsMVD3Q/s800/D7K_0698.JPG)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vXzCPe51W7o/Tpo_sEYG68I/AAAAAAAAAKo/BzNBqLtFCeU/s720/D7K_0703.JPG)
This little guster came over about 25 minutes later from a new cell.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yVEeuUUXsmY/Tpo_0u_YQxI/AAAAAAAAAKo/39aWm_-f_Ko/s800/D7K_0716.JPG)
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-7XCNJnLZN6Q/Tpo_9uV3ruI/AAAAAAAAAKo/NzhavPQvqvI/s800/D7K_0718.JPG)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3VlfTSB_IYE/Tpo_-GHJvSI/AAAAAAAAAKo/rIOpHP6OIYw/s800/D7K_0720.JPG)
Soon after we were beset by heavy rain and squally winds by the newer cell. I managed to take perhaps my first semi-decent lightning shot.
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-IcTKQJZIEDk/Tpo__gL5JYI/AAAAAAAAAKo/TPX4VDKu9fU/s800/D7K_0741.JPG)
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link to 3d lighting video i took on 15th oct (hail image is just one pile picked up from the front door)(lightning is a still from the video i have linked to)(there is an option to turn 3d off on the you tube video)(second vid is of hail falling)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNlw8q05bvw&feature=player_embedded (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNlw8q05bvw#ws)
MAH00168.MP4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPUh1NCu1IY#ws)
MB edit - can't seem to embed the 3d video
To view the clip in 3D you have to view it on you-tube (puzzling as t why the 3D wont embed)
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Gday All,
As MB alluded to earlier we chased out to a location just north of Casino. We basically sat there for the entire duration of the cells we were observing and were treated to a spectacular CG barrage late in the piece. The cells passing to our NW were so electrically active that on two occasions MB and I felt our hairs stand on end from crawlers passing overhead!! I've never experienced this before and was a bit of an adrenaline moment but a touch scary at the same time. Anyway I'll share a few more pics to compliment MB's
Some solid updrafts from activity to the NW
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/15102011_jp_10.jpg)
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/jp09resize.jpg)
Activity to the West
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/15102011_jp_17.jpg)
After this the CG barrage started. All shots taken with lightning trigger.
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/jp_29resize.jpg)
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/jp_26resize.jpg)
Dirty that this one blew out, but you get the idea
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/jp_25resize.jpg)
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/15th%20October%202011/jp_21resize.jpg)
In all a fun afternoon with nothing severe to report. Thanks to MB for driving.
Cheers Jason
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We will have to gradually have to migrate to the new website for discussions http://www.extremestorms.com.au (http://www.extremestorms.com.au) folks:)
David C and I initially made our way to Boonah and waited all afternoon. Weak cells did develop but the stronger initial cells occurred across the border in NSW. We watched as drier air entrainment cause base levels to evaporate and rise further it seemed. I feel this may have descreased the potential CAPE indicatd by the models. The latter models definitely indicated more of a squall line with perhaps the odd supercell with more of a linear mode from 850hPa and higher in the sounding. This is what occurred.
Cells developed almost overhead so we made our way to Beaudesert. Three cells intensified ahead of the squall line with the occasional bolt and reasonable structure observed. Unfortunately, the lack of direct heating with the encroaching squall line and its speed simply either saw a weakening and/or merge with the squall line.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd13.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd14.jpg)
After this attempt we made our position for the squall line particularly interested in the tail end charlie cell.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd17.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd31.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd46.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd55.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd58.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd66.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd73.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd79.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/1015jd80.jpg)
A very nice high contrast squall line in the end. The second last photograph shows the cell that went through the CBD which we could have intercepted had we taken the correct route - a blacked entry and traffic near long waiting at a traffic light wasted 10 to 15 minutes. This was suffucient time to intercept it from the road to the airport. Excellent road network in Brisbane!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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These are a few photos of the second cell on Saturday afternoon that formed to the north of Bracken Ridge and moved through approx 1/2 hour after the main system from the west had passed.
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/storms/storm13oct1123.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/storms/storm13oct1124.jpg)
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/storms/storm13oct1125.jpg)
As darkness set in we were treated to an enjoyable light show.
(http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/ad115/colmait/storms/storm13oct1126.jpg)
Cheers
Col
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Hi all,
All in all a good day up in QLD, have attached some of my video captures of mostly the same scenes as in Jimmy's pics above.
....so, some of the earlier GFS runs (eg on Weds and Thurs) indicated good directional shear from 500-850mb winds suggesting a favourable situation for supercell development on Saturday afternoon across NSW northern rivers and across into South east Queensland. There were at times hints of a surface low developing in response to the upper level trough, or otherwise generally good turning between the sfc and 850mb. This raised a few eyebrows, so Jimmy and I decided on a long haul chase up into northern NSW as a start.
It soon became evident with each progressive model run that there would be quite unidirectional shear between 500-850mb, so the expectation of significant severe weather was kind of diminished by Friday -- but we were already well on the road so there was nothing to loose!
On chase day we sat at Boonah from the late morning. A line developed on radar out west of Texas (QLD) so we were hoping that isolated storms would initiate ahead of the line, which was advancing fairly quickly. A brief period of NE winds were encouraging and eventually isolated storms did develop:
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014215143%281%29_sm.jpg)
...and one of these initially intensified quite rapidly with an inflow band
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014220017%281%29_sm.jpg)
The problem was that the anvils were coming across, which suppressed what heating we had, and this conspired with the NW 850 winds to make these initially promising storms struggle. After giving up on these plan B was the northern end of the line that was now moving over the metro area.
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014224520%281%29_sm.jpg)
We navigated our way around the city and got some good footage of the approaching shelf and the base structure of the more isolated cells on the northern end that produced large hail.
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014224642%282%29_sm.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014225138%282%29_sm.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014225642%284%29_sm.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014230527%281%29_sm.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014230527%283%29_sm.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014231020%281%29_sm.jpg)
(http://www.agrigen.com.au/temp/20111014231020%283%29_sm.jpg)
We missed our planned exit to head north to the airport and beyond and got caught in traffic as the line hit, with some small hail thrown in (1 to 1.5 cm) at Macgregor.
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Sorry im late but been busy as i moved up on the 15th and got a storm here in Ballina
here is some lightning
Antonio.
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Although this system produced some nice severe storms with some moderate hail reported it didn't live up to more severe expectations due a shift in the wind profile that caused a more linear system to develop. Others have discussed this elsewhere so I won't go into any detail.
On a photogenic note, which is what i'm more interested in, some of the images posted in this thread have shown some very nice storm structure with the high contrast shelf clouds dominating. Hopefully we will see some more images from different angles and different cells posted of this event.
Jeff.
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I put together a bit of a video of the hailstorm over Bracken Ridge. 1st attempt to edit and upload :-\.
Bracken Ridge hailstorm 15october 2011.wmv (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ona23Te5bU#)