Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide => Topic started by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 December 2010, 05:47:42 PM

Title: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 December 2010, 05:47:42 PM
Hello all it looks like there could possibly be a Tropical low developing mid next week in the Indian ocean and may make contact with the WA Coast on Friday December the 17th 2010

BOM outlook no 1 :

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region at the moment. However, a monsoon
trough is expected to strengthen over the region during the weekend and a
tropical low is likely to develop south of Java by early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the the Western Region:
Sunday      :Very Low
Monday      :Low
Tuesday     :Low

Weatherzone Charts :

(http://i733.photobucket.com/albums/ww337/pacificblue03/Storm%20events/troplowpos17decWA2010-synop.gif)

BSCH wind Chart Start Monday End Saturday each day is 9am

(http://i733.photobucket.com/albums/ww337/pacificblue03/Storm%20events/troplowpos17dec2010WA-wind.gif)

So it will be interesting to see what happens here so sorry if i have posted a little early but i am just looking forward to monitoring this possible event.

Antonio (Stormboy)
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 14 December 2010, 01:56:52 PM
The latest update for the western sector is there is the potential for 1 cyclone and another low forming over the next few days.

BoM :

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST a weak low was near 13S102E, around 450 kilometres south west of
Christmas Island, embedded in a monsoon trough. It is possible that the low will
develop into a tropical cyclone by late Tuesday, or more likely on Wednesday or
Thursday, by which time it is expected to be moving towards the south southeast.
       
   
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday     :Moderate
Wednesday   :High
Thursday    :High

Another tropical low may develop off the Kimberley coast on Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday   :Very Low
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday  :Low



Col
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 14 December 2010, 05:37:02 PM
its going to be a busy week of cyclones :)

Antonio.
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 16 December 2010, 04:15:30 AM
Just looking at the current sat pics and obs for the western region and it appears that one of the lows embedded in that trough must be very close to forming into a tropical low. It would not surprise me to see some time later today BoM showing a TL on the track map.
It is an interesting sat image from Western Australia right over the NT and the Cape in QLD.

Col
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 16 December 2010, 04:52:06 AM
just saw the sat and wow huge blobs over WA i  think there is a TL commin

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/movies/gmsswir/gmsswirjava.html (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/movies/gmsswir/gmsswirjava.html)

Antonio.
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 17 December 2010, 12:45:48 AM
A topical low did form yesterday at 20S110E just of WA.


BoM

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST a tropical low was located near 20S 110E, about 480 kilometres
west northwest of Exmouth, within an active monsoon trough. Gales are possible
to the north and south of the monsoon trough, please refer to the latest
Shipping Warnings for more details [IDW21100, IDW21200]. The low may develop
into a tropical cyclone during the next 3 days, although it is more likely to
remain a large monsoonal low with strong to gale force winds well away from the
centre.         

Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Michael Bath on 19 December 2010, 03:43:47 AM
Well not a TC but it did smash some rainfall records in the Gascoyne region of WA. This was posted elsewhere by Don White:

Quote
Carnarvon AP has had 151 mm of rain since 9 am.  The AP had records going back 65 years. Their December average is 1.8 mm indicating that they have had more rain in the last 18 hoiurs than in the last 65 Decembers put together!  Their previous record was 77 mm in December 1995 all of which fell in one day but their 2nd wettest December ever was 1988 with just over 5 mm !

Quite a remarkable event.

They have also broken their wettest day for any month previous 102.6 mm in July 1998

Before the last 24 hrs, they had recorded just 112.6 mm this year; their annual total last year was 108 mm.

Based on previous data, a quick calculation for the return period for such an event is 1 in 11,000 years ! 

Statistically, this must be one of the most amazing weather events ever.

PS Carnarvon PO has records back to 1883. They did have 119 mm in one day in 1932 but still only average 3 mm per month  for the 67 years up to 1950.




and a follow up by Laurier Williams

Quote
Records are detailed at http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2010/101217.SHTML. (http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2010/101217.SHTML.) Carnarvon AP's total of 204.8 for the 24 hours to 9 this morning was almost exactly double its previous all time one-day record in 65 years (102.6mm, 13/7/1998). Marron with a 99 year history also set a new all-time record by a considerable margin (166.4 compared to 132.4 9/3/200).
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Mike on 19 December 2010, 10:25:51 AM
Quite an incredible rain period!  200mm in reflection of what, 1.8mm for the average!  The only part of Australia that desperately needs this rain is Perth..their dam level is a miserable 35% whilst the rest of the country's dams are overflowing.
Title: Re: WA Pos Tropical low watch Dec 12- 19 2010
Post by: Richary on 19 December 2010, 08:40:04 PM
I'm currently in Perth on a work trip and the rainfall / flooding up there has been receiving a bit of coverage on the local news. They have been commenting about the areas getting it's annual rainfall in 24-48 hours, and some extensive flooding shown with buildings east of Carnarvon underwater.

Here in Perth we may get some showers from it tomorrow as it tracks south and weakens.