Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Steven on 27 September 2010, 12:00:52 AM
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Hi all,
BoM remains optimistic about the next few days ahead, so please discuss.
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Instability appears to be fairly widespread, mainly across the eastern half of QLD today. Inland N NSW appears it will dry out with just the NE of the state in for a chance. 24/17 here at present with a lot of high cloud and scattered cumulus.
The shear depicted on the Brisbane sounding is quite light and the uppers are a little warm.
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Todays Brisbane 00Z observed sounding has the mid level lapse rates at 4.5C which is quite a stable number.
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Storm Warning For Central West QLD again. On BSCH stormcast this morning, Central QLD looked to have the best chance of anywhere for storms to ignite.
Tuesday seems a better chance for storms in the SEQ.
Is any body else having troubles with Sounding analysis on the BSCH site, I have lost all data on the airport observation page and cant change temps or dew points for the mere fact the page is blank?. I have Gold membership from being in ASWA. The service seem to have dropped out about 2 weeks ago. I still have summary of the skewT.
BOMS warning
For people in parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields and
Central West Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:36 pm Sunday, 26 September 2010.
Severe thunderstorms are possible within the warning area and may produce damaging winds and large hailstones over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Longreach, Winton, Barcaldine, Blackall, Evesham Station and Muttaburra.
Col
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What page(s) are you referring to Col ?
Mid and upper levels temps (700 to 300hPa on Bris sounding) have warmed a bit across SE QLD since last night which will inhibit action. Looks quite nice over inland NSW and QLD on the Moree and Charleville soundings so expecting some decent storms out there.
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Hi Michael,
I need to correct myself here, it is part of the Australian Weather Monitor program that you can download and access as part of the ASWA membership.
From the main page you click
weather-
forecast-
sounding analysis.
Although I receive a summary of the soundings, the observation page(skew T) is blank, and it was on this page that you can change the temps and dew points to recalibrate the summary page. All was working well up to approx 2 weeks ago. Membership is due Apr so it has not expired. Dont know if it is a technical hitch and if any one else is facing a similar problem, or if it is a problem on my side.
Cheers
Col.
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Classic case of GFS getting it wrong today. If you were to trust the computer model you would not be expecting storms west of the ranges in NSW due to lack of instability. GFS has a CAPE of 0-200 j/kg where in reality it is more like 1000 j/kg. This mainly because of better low-level moisture than forecast. For example, it is currently 24/17 in Moree whereas GFS has it at 24/13. No severe storm warning out yet but I would think that there is a least the possiblity of strong outflow winds due to the dry mid levels and strong mid/upper level winds.
Michael
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Hi Col, have a look at this thread (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/883524/Weather_Programs#Post883524) then contact the guys as per this page (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/30759/8/Brisbane_Storm_Chasers_Homepag)
Northerly winds have freshened here with some high based cumulus congestus about. A lot of shower/storm activity inland - wonder if anything can dominate.
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96 km/hr wind gust recorded at Coonamble at 1:30 pm. Severe storm warning out now for damaging winds.
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Not much happening here at the moment apart from allot of Convection to out west southwest and a northerly winds and 25.7C 72% humidity.
Looking at the Namoi radar you can see many many cells you can also see something trying close to SE QLD and the northern northern tablelands.
Antonio.
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just had a question this is quiet weird this radar http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml)
is showing 2 patches of rain although Michael Baths webcam and my eyes can not see not much more than specky cloud is the radar wrong? i live 20ks away from this blob and its very clear sky in all directions..
Antonio.
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a severe warning has been issued for qld now, it seems like storms are firing up as the afternoon progresses. Its currently looking very interestiong out beaudesert way as well now
: Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields and
Maranoa and Warrego Forecast Districts.
Issued at 3:51 pm Monday, 27 September 2010.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall,
flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several
hours. Locations which may be affected include Rolleston, Injune and Mantuan
Downs.
Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 6:55 pm.
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Antonio - that large "rain" area was showing up on Stapylton, Marburg and Grafton radars but not sure what it was. It came across from Warwick where the same thing was reported. Maybe a big area of bugs a couple of ks up
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Thanks very much Michael for the help. Very much appreciated.
As Slavegirl mentioned, STW again for the central inland of QLD.
Its interesting at the begining of a storm season watching the possible trends taking place.
Forecast winds for QLD tomorrow are West to Northwesterly with a top of 28C. BOM is going for possible storms, Unfortunately I am not over excited at the moment, the set up is not quite there for the SE of Qld for severe storms. (In saying that, everything will change and I will have to eat my words ;D)
Colin
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Some nice development in the Kyogle Casino Region at the moment with a easterly movement areas in between Evans head and Byron bay may be in for a thundery rain patch tonight but most likely at most thundery rain.
Antonio.
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Well it looks like I have to eat my words. BOM have issued STW at 12.41pm
The soundings summary was indicating that there was a good possibility for severe storms.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of the
MORETON BAY,
SUNSHINE COAST and
SCENIC RIM Council Areas.
Issued at 12:41 pm Tuesday, 28 September 2010.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 12:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Boonah, Mount Beerwah and Beerburrum. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect Kooralbyn and northern Bribie Island by 1:15 pm and waters off Bribie Island by 1:45 pm.
Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.
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The sounding summary states
There is a moderate amount of instability to produce storms. Storm tops should reach 37254ft. Severe storms are a possibility and might be quite severe given the shear present, supporting hail 2cm+ in size
The 500mb level is showing strong instability, which is more than enough for storms and becoming favorable for severe storms if other conditions are right
The 500 temps are relatively cold
The sounding is showing very nice moisture in the lower levels and moisture depth is good
Cloud base is at 911.05mb (927m)
There is some light change in the directional shear up to 700mb
SWEAT index reports a moderate chance of storms becoming severe
There is a little bit of moisture in the mid levels however the amount of dry air present will still help evaporative cooling to an extent, lightning and the formation of hail
Lower level winds are adequate
Mid level winds are good
Upper level winds (Jetstream) are good
There is no cap, storms will fire off early if other conditions are right
The overall CAP has a value of -0.95 °C
There is an inversion present from 950mb to 925mb
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2nd Storm Warning issued for QLD. Around the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett is where I thought most of the action would be today. I really did not expect much for the SEQ
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast and parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields and Maranoa and Warrego Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:44 pm Tuesday, 28 September 2010.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Warwick, Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Brisbane, Dalby, Maroochydore, Roma, Gympie, Bundaberg, Gladstone, Emerald, Rockhampton, Kingaroy, Stanthorpe and Goondiwindi.
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looks really nice out here at the moment very dark and thunder already just hope it doesnt hail as there is no cover at the shops and i have to go out lol
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Well Byron has had a nice storm
Severe storms sweeping through southeast Queensland
Sam Terry, Tuesday September 28, 2010 - 13:23 EST
Storms are firing up over southeastern Queensland, heading quickly to the coast and bringing potential for severe weather.
A Severe Weather Warning has been issued for the QLD Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Darling Downs, and Southeast Coast districts, and for parts of the Central Highlands and Maranoa and Warrego districts.
Already parts of New South Wales have been hit by the storms. Cape Byron was deluged with six millimetres in just ten minutes, enough to cause localised flooding.
In Queensland there are currently two storm cells with the potential to be severe. One is currently crossing the Sunshine Coast and heading offshore and the other is heading towards Beaudesert (south of Brisbane). So far there have been no reports of damage or severe features.
Keep checking the radar on weatherzone.com.au to follow the path of the storms.
- Weatherzone
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
And over here 3 nice large Growths at the moment here is a quick pic of what i am looking at right now.
Antonio.
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Here is a second Cell now just south from here near evans head it has some rather nice growth, more growth now to the west from here will report as it happens.
1st pic Growing
2nd pic Result
3rd pic radar reference.
Antonio
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lovely guys and gals
picking up nicely on radar, wish i could be there =]
nice pic Antonio
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looks really nice out here at the moment very dark and thunder already just hope it doesnt hail as there is no cover at the shops and i have to go out lol
I think you pick a bad time to go out. This came with the latest STW from BOM
Thunderstorms today have already produced wind damage (trees uprooted) and flash flooding at Beaudesert at around 1:30pm.
Hope you are OK
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Nice storm at Lismore heading for Ballina now! You stormboy getting luckier!
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Thankyou for the concern :) we are ok in the end i looked outside saw it approaching and decided it was safer garaging the car and waiting it out, i got some pics i will post later on after this new storm threat has passed. We got pea sized hail at home very destructive winds and very heavy rainfall i forgot to shut windows on the south facing side of the house and as a result my bedroom is drenched as is my daughters toy room and her bedroom *insert blush here lol* at present the sky is nearly white in colour with constant rumbling hopefully this one isnt too severe as our place is already saturated and flooded in spots
*update: the second storm skirted us and headed into rathdowney with the BOM labelling it as a very severe storm. As i was watching it i took some pics while in town which i will post later and im sure i saw a interesting cloud shape like a funnel not too sure though and after this was when the BOM labelled it as a very severe storm
* Pics of the second storm that headed towards rathdowney i have zoomed in on the suspect shape i saw - had to zoom in as iphone isnt that great for pics. It was more funnel shaped before i found my phone and took the pics
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haha damn right im lucky its huge and GREEN!! omg will report back when its done.
Antonio.
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Update __
still pounding us here 6.8mm of rain in 10 mins now we have a flood its flooding i cant see our grass
Antonio.
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Righto heres a quick couple of pics from my house today.....couldn't chase as I had the kiddies. Forgive the powerlines bloody nuisance things they are.
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_0818copy.jpg)
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_0822copy.jpg)
And this hail was measured after 10mins of heavy rain fell on it, not too bad really!!
(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_0828copy.jpg)
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another stw has been issued for qld at 4:30. Looks like we may have storms well into the night.:
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND and FLASH FLOODING
For people in the Wide Bay and Burnett, Darling Downs and Granite Belt,
Southeast Coast and parts of the Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, Herbert and Lower Burdekin, Central
Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia and Maranoa
and Warrego Forecast Districts.
Issued at 4:30 pm Tuesday, 28 September 2010.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall
and flash flooding over the next several hours in the Wide Bay and Burnett,
Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Southeast Coast and parts of the Central
Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia and Maranoa and Warrego districts.
Locations which may be affected include Warwick, Gold Coast, Toowoomba,
Brisbane, Dalby, Maroochydore, Roma, Gympie, Bundaberg, Emerald, Kingaroy,
Stanthorpe and Goondiwindi.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall
and flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the Northern Tropical
Coast and Tablelands, Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, Herbert and Lower
Burdekin, Central Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields and
Capricornia districts. Locations which may be affected include Charters Towers,
Nebo, Eungella and Mingela.
Thunderstorms today have already produced:
wind damage [trees uprooted] and flash flooding at Beaudesert at around 1:30pm,
wind damage and severe flash flooding at Canungra at around 2pm.
flash flooding at Bellmere [near Caboolture] at around 3:30pm
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After 60.3MM of absolute shocking Rain i must applaud the sky for its fantastic thunder cell.
There was indeed (small pea hail for 40 seconds 2 times) i wish i wish i had pix of them but mum was filming the flood with my cam our grass is now finally coming back. WAS plenty of CG action non stop.
The images are as follows
1)20 mins before hitting
2)10 mins before hitting
3) HITTING HARD
4) the END
Ballina AP had 59mm we had 60.3mm and im sure there was more where a station does not exist.
Antonio Signing out for today
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first 3 pics are of the first storm approaching, last 2 pics are as it moved away. I took these on my phone as i dont have a camera yet so excuse the quality. ( i cant post more than one pic at a time for some reason so excuse the multiple edits :) )
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It was great to see some widespread storm action today - a lot more than I had forecast for today. I wasn't able to chase but one of the stronger cells came right over my home from just before 4pm. It's the same one Jason photographed in Lismore and Antonio in Ballina later.
We copped 50mm in 20 mins with a max rain rate of 290mm/hr. Hail got up to 1cm diameter during the second half of the deluge. It's probably the heaviest (in total) rainfall from one thunderstorm cell I can recall.
Early altocumulus castellanus
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb01.jpg)
Early cells across the Nightcap ranges looked quite nice when it crossed the coast near Byron Bay. This pic just after 2pm.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb13.jpg)
Storms gathering to my west.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb18.jpg)
The main storm as it passed over McLeans Ridges.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb24.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb31.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb36.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb42.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0928mb46.jpg)
All pics from today are here (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F094___28+september+2010+mb)
MB
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MB i love that last picture you have a awesome view, wow 50mm in 20 mins holy crap
Antonio.
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Well how great is it to have storms back!!! I'm looking forward to chasing this year. I'm stoked with my first lighting images for the season :)
(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/september%2028%201010/IMG_1526copy.jpg)
this was taken a few hours ago after waiting and hoping for a bolt from the blue strike for arounf 3 or so hours. Check out that structure too! :D
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great structure and beautiful pic =]
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WOW nice shot Enak.
Who wants a repeat of yesterday raise your hands :)
Antonio.
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WOW nice shot Enak.
Who wants a repeat of yesterday raise your hands :)
Antonio.
do it now =D *raises hand*
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Your perseverance paid off Kane - nice capture of the storm. Been ages since I've seen some spectacular lightning. There were a few powerful CGs just ahead of and in the storm here yesterday but it was not a situation where capturing any was likely.
Here is the radar loop for 28 Sep showing the strong cells which passed through Evans Head then later the Casino, Lismore, McLeans Ridges, Ballina one. Also later the storm off Coffs - what time was your photo Kane?
128km Radar Loop for Grafton, 00:00 28/09/2010 to 13:00 28/09/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR283/2010-09-28-00/2010-09-28-13/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR283-grafton/2010-09-28-00/2010-09-28-13)
The Brisbane and Moree soundings are attached for reference too. The moisture shown on the Bris sounding was quite impressive for this time of year.
PS - Karina and all - there is a bug in the attach function, just add one at a time and edit though it doesn't affect all browsers.
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Beautiful pictures!
I wish I'm down there yesterday and maybe today. Those cells were certainly summer style!
Not sure if Lismore cell is a supercell, it was visible rotation on the radar with black core holding for 30minutes.
So Michael, not sure if you seen the rotation on radar, i mean the direction was ENE while other cells are ESE to SE??
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Your perseverance paid off Kane - nice capture of the storm. Been ages since I've seen some spectacular lightning. There were a few powerful CGs just ahead of and in the storm here yesterday but it was not a situation where capturing any was likely.
There were many CGs here too but the rain was that thick you didn't have a chance to capture any, so what is the set up like today is it any good? any thoughts?
Antonio.
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Mathew, the Lismore storm would have been a HP supercell between Casino and just east of Lismore - for about an hour or less.
The sixth photo of mine shows a classic looking HP base with the prong on the left - into the wall cloud, though it didn't last long after that.
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Some action developing Now Over Tweed heads and Coomera as well as Whiporie in NE nsw.
Antonio.
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Storm warnings once again in place for parts of SEQ
For people in parts of the
BRISBANE CITY,
MORETON BAY and
SUNSHINE COAST Council Areas.
Issued at 3:26 pm Wednesday, 29 September 2010.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:25 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Caboolture and Beachmere. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. They are forecast to affect Bribie Island, waters off Bribie Island and northern Bribie Island by 3:55 pm and Comboyuro Point and Cape Moreton by 4:25 pm.
Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.
Thunderstorms today have already produced:
marble sized hail at Bellmere (near Caboolture) at around 3pm.
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After a little bit of thundery rain earlier, the skies are mostly clear out this way. As for further activity, I'm not really sure, although cells are still firing up south of the border.
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Melbourne needs more action
lucky lucky nsw and qld people
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Thanks for the comments guys :D..Michael the exif data says it was taken at 9:19pm
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Great photo. If I ever get one like that I will be pretty happy! Though my home location won't give the scenic water and so on to add to the effect. Love it!
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A little slow in getting these photos and video up however finally got around to it.
A few photos from in and around Casino on Tuesday 28 September. Watched an early cell develop between Casino and Kyogle before it died fairly rapidly.
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs135.snc4/37101_436558168250_115884443250_5161287_5436059_n.jpg)
Headed to Casino and watched the storms that developed east of Tenterfield march onwards to Evans Head.
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs693.snc4/63386_436558253250_115884443250_5161289_586385_n.jpg)
This storm put out some serious outflow that orientated itself E-W and moved north. I headed west to a developing base that was forming west of Casino. This storm would eventually become the big one that hit Lismore/Mcleans Ridges.
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs693.snc4/63386_436558263250_115884443250_5161291_7890238_n.jpg)
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs713.snc4/63386_436558268250_115884443250_5161292_4280740_n.jpg)
(http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc4/hs713.snc4/63386_436558273250_115884443250_5161293_4162436_n.jpg)
As it started to increase in size the outflow boundary from the earlier storm started to interact with it and the storm took off to the ENE then NE. Tried to go after this storm however a poor choice of road combined with the sheer speed it was travelling meant I couldn't catch it.
Some nice rotation and base structure on the severe Casino/Lismore storm. Some time-lapse of the developing base west of Casino below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ffsFZUJUnY#ws (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ffsFZUJUnY#ws)
Youtube - Casino HP Timelapse
A nice start to the storm season!