Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Antonio (stormboy) on 15 September 2010, 08:53:09 AM
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A storm warning as follows
For people in the
North West Slopes and Plains,
Central West Slopes and Plains and parts of the
Hunter and
Central Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 2:21 pm Tuesday, 14 September 2010.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, large hailstones, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the next several hours in the North West Slopes and Plains, Central West Slopes and Plains and parts of the Central Tablelands districts. Locations which may be affected include Tamworth, Gunnedah, Moree, Narrabri, Walgett, Dubbo, Condobolin, Coonamble and Nyngan.
As especially severe thunderstorm is located about 15 km west of Gunnedah, and is moving towards the east to northeast and could produce hail to around 5 cm in diameter and destructive wind gusts to around 120 km/h over the next hour or so.
Severe thunderstorms are also likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the Hunter district. Locations which may be affected include Gosford, Erina, Terrigal, The Entrance and Wyong.
Wyong recorded 52 mm of rain between 11 am and noon
There has also been very heavy rain east of Gosford with the 9am radar feature showing 75 to 100mm color.
rain came through here earlier but only 0.6mm before the rain came in Warwick and tenterfield area there were lightning strikes non stop on the lightning tracker.
Patchy cells are developing at the moment south of moree and a severe one over Gunnedah
Lets see what this system brings this evening.
attached is Warning area and the current rain / lightning situation and Gunnedah Storm possibly hail in this screen?
Antonio
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is that alittle hook echo on that cell? or am i seeing things
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is that alittle hook echo on that cell? or am i seeing things
Looks like it also if you look at the 64 km loop it looks like rotation???
link __ http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR694-namoi/2010-09-13-06/2010-09-14-06 (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR694-namoi/2010-09-13-06/2010-09-14-06)
Antonio.
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agree but its moving pretty fast
i hope someone is chasing today
actually looks like it cycles once and the hook reforms
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heres a close up view of the current satellite situation
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=seqldnensw&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=#nav (http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=seqldnensw&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=#nav)
also looks like many (spotty) cumulus are developing which may lead to some action in Northern rivers perhaps? well if so that would be great but if not its understandable since it wasn't even forecast today :)
Antonio.
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we will know by 6pm i guess =D
nice positive start to the season
but yeah those storms are hauling ass, keeping up with those would be fun if you got behind
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just looking at the 256k Moree and the 256k Namoi RADARS and there is heaps of difference in the cells GO BOM!
moree showing yellow spots Namoi showing many many Brown ones and look like another cell south southwest of Pilliga is moving in the region again.
Would not be surprised for hail reports.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR692.loop.shtml#skip (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR692.loop.shtml#skip)
Antonio.
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yeah really interesting day and so widespread across a vast area
will be interesting to see what information crops up over the new few days regarding this
that cell seems to be dying now, the hook is gone and the storm is dying down
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yeah looks like it was a severe one but short lived.
nothing spectacular yet but the northern rivers northern tablelands northern areas are starting to develop a few small cells so far not showing lightning but are showing moderate color code http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml. (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml.)
also over in the northern Mid north coast some nice cells one west of Nymbodia has developed more close to home and i hope someone is chasing today.http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR283.loop.shtml. (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR283.loop.shtml.)
so i say it is a possibility that we may actually see some action this arvy / evening and if not we may at least get an lightning show offshore :).
UPDATE - there is heaps of Convection starting at the moment to our west just at the sun has come back out now all the convection i say 10+ towers have just skyrocketed.
Antonio.
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I certainly hope for a light show at least tonight, something looks like it is trying to develop out here and seeing as it was forcast for this area i hope something takes off. Promising start to the season i hope :)
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well all we have to see now is SE QLD in the severe thunderstorm warning list and maybe the northern rivers then we know were cookin.
so far the tenterfield Kyogle area has started to shoot up quiet quickly with convection visible from here (Ballina) over the west and now the south.
i have even gone to charge the camera batteries oh my i haven't done that in a long time .
Antonio.
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getting nice and dark out to the west of beaudesert as we speak - as soon as the sun came out this afternoon things seem to be firing up fingers crossed it happens here :) Shame that i dont have a camera for this lol
I used to live in port macquarie and worked out at mt seaview - ralph is family to me so will be interesting to hear from him and friends what the storms produced down around mt seaviw and port macquarie - I hope people are out chasing these cells today lookig forwards to the chase reports
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ok ok maybe a little pic of structure is needed haha. a cell a small one but a cell is now 15 minutes away from us possibly heavy falls and maybe a thunder :P here is a pic of whats coming its now closer and very dark now though.
will take a pic of the rain it makes just for fun be back soon :)
Antonio
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well as promised some rain pix but not only rain but also a rainbow :)
as im standing there i hear the most best sound and its been a while since i heard it some lovely loud thunder 2 times and then it was gone it was a very nice day today and a nice but quick storm to Finnish it.
1) the rain of course was heavy but cam does not show it this is also when the thunder surprised me haha
2) the finishing touch
3) a new cell next to this one towards Lennox head.
hope you enjoy.
Antonio.
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Anything that started out here ended up decaying rapidly hence no pics. Lovely pic of the rainbow :)
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a really nice cell west of Kyogle at the moment and a few little ones on the Grafton radar maybe we will se some lightning here later.
Antonio.
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Well Sydney and surrounds didn't miss out either with some quite heavy but localised falls during the day. I heard on the TV news that Chatswood had 33mm during the day, we had about 10 at home. Then just after 7pm I was watching TV when there was a flash outside, and sure enough thunder. Not a great deal of lightning here, what was seen was up in the clouds and rain wrapped so I didn't get the camera out, but there were a few loud booms.
Here's hoping that if we are getting lightning this early in the season it will be a good one.
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is that alittle hook echo on that cell? or am i seeing things
I was looking at the radar thinking exactly the same thing. Is that precip wrapping on the north-west side of that cell?
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Did anyone get out and chase any of the cells that exploded mid afternoon in NE NSW? Surely someone got out there? From the radar returns and behaviour of those storms (ie training supercells, right movers, left movers and obvious hooks on some) it would have made for some amazing images that I would love to see. I hope someone got onto something! particularly the Gunnedah beast or later the Boggabri cell which both had amazing structures on radar.
Michael Bath - did you get any action?
Brad
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I agree with you Brad, some great struture on the Gunnedah storm. Would be nice to see some photos.
From my understanding, this storm formed in a relatively low-CAPE environment with a low equilibrium level. A strong, westerly mid-level jet was nosing into the area and surface winds were easterly providing strong vertical shear. What is interesting to me is that the storm was actually quite small and compact (probably due to the low CAPE and low EL) but displayed characteristics of a HP supercell (that is, a very wet rear-flank downdraft).
Michael
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wow i cant believe 210 views in 1 day haha.
Brad (ie training supercells, right movers, left movers and obvious hooks on some)
please what is a training supercell? i can guess what a right mover is but the other i have no idea. well not a large storm yesterday but i was happy to at least hear thunder even if it was only twice : )
gives me positive thoughts on this years season.
Antonio.
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Antonio...I think Brad is simply referring to a group of supercells 'training' or in a line/grouping moving in a similar direction..and not as in the type of storm per se. :)
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Antonio...I think Brad is simply referring to a group of supercells 'training' or in a line/grouping moving in a similar direction..and not as in the type of storm per se. :)
Aha oh i see now haha thanks for the correction :)
Antonio.
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I agree with you Brad, some great struture on the Gunnedah storm. Would be nice to see some photos.
From my understanding, this storm formed in a relatively low-CAPE environment with a low equilibrium level. A strong, westerly mid-level jet was nosing into the area and surface winds were easterly providing strong vertical shear. What is interesting to me is that the storm was actually quite small and compact (probably due to the low CAPE and low EL) but displayed characteristics of a HP supercell (that is, a very wet rear-flank downdraft).
Michael
i Agree, but as we know with Australian supercells anything can happen at anytime low CAPE or not xD
just great to see that hook, was very exciting
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Sydney Rainfall for 15 September 2010
On 14/9/2010, I had a flexi day and noted the behaviour of rain / shower cells across the Sydney basin throughout the day. The rain cells were slow moving and were hit and miss. This is evident by the rainfall plot from the BOM (Rainfall for the 24 hours to 9 am 15/9/2010). Rainfall totals range from 0 mm west of Campbelltown to 69 mm at Chatswood and near Hornsby. Whereas only 6 to 7 mm fell around Blacktown where I live. The heaviest falls were concentrated from Strathfield (59 mm) north to Hornsby and Chatswood (69 mm) with the lightest falls over western and north west Sydney.
Localised falls of up to 115 to 130 mm fell in the hills behind Wollongong. A weak storm cell passed over Blacktown after dark generating two lightning flashes and accompanying thunderclaps but only light rainfall occurred. Generally it was a case of hit or miss with some areas receiving copious rainfall while other areas missed out.
The rainfall plot for Sydney for the 24 hours to 9 am 15/9/2010 is attached below.
Harley Pearman
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I wasn't able to chase inland to where the real action was. Locally there was not a lot to see until right on dusk when the storm near Woodenbong was active - but it had almost no lightning so couldn't even see the structure once it was dark - even though I have a perfect line of sight from home.
There was a report of a hail storm at Guyra about 12.30pm 14/9. The hail was small but still remained accumulated in some areas at sunset.
Start with this radar loop then choose the 256km scale to see the Guyra storm track
128km Radar Loop for Namoi, 00:00 14/09/2010 to 10:00 14/09/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR693/2010-09-14-00/2010-09-14-10/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR693-namoi/2010-09-14-00/2010-09-14-10)
Morning soundings for Cobar and Moree on 14/9 attached.
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Interesting storm that Gunnedah one. Obs at the time were 21/15 (at best) which gave an LCL of about 3,500ft and looking at the sounding for the day with those obs, the storm tops would've been only 25,000ft. Pretty short supercell! But with 70knts at 500mb and 35-40knts at 700mb, its quite an impressive shear profile. Instability wise, the above obs on the Moree sounding produced results of LI's of about -4 and CAPE of about 1300jkg.
In terms of chasing that area, early season storm days such as this are very hit and miss. All of the models had the trough scooting through this area and sitting near the coast up until about 24hrs out when they started to develop a surface low over central western NSW which kept the surface trough back over the NWS&P. The surface low ended up being quite deep and was nicely tilted west with height so that dry air was able to wrap around the low in the mid-upper levels. For anyone considering a chase, it was a pretty big risk (high chance of a bust) and given that its 6-7hrs from Brisbane and Sydney and even a solid 4 hours from the NR's and for what seemed like a low chance of fast moving storms (that possibly wouldn't have enough instability to stand up against the strong shear).
Definitely lessons learned from the way the day unfolded - fortunately its very early in the season so hopefully there are plenty more opportunities for everyone to get out and chase.
Macca
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Interesting youtube clip from this day...
Tornado Inverell NSW 14/09/2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G8sL4RxNdQ#)
Given that this storm doesn't show up as a stand out on radar, makes you wonder what the more prominant storms had on this day...
Macca
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Hi Macca,
Sorry guys, been too busy with family, school and projects to comment until now.
Nice catch Macca. This was one of those friek events - and nothing in the models except low level wind shear caught my eye. The moisture profile was not the most ideal - the upper level destabilisation was ordinary. Perhaps some form of cyclogensis occurred in the region which seemed to show up on radar as well. I agree with the risk tasking comment.
Back to the storm itself. Is that funnel/tornado anticyclonic? Given the storms were moving from northwest to southeast or at least west to east in most storm cases, it is hard to tell whether the rain is approaching in the video, and if the circulation was to the right. So was it on the northern side or southern side. The base is not spectacular so either an occlusion is occurring or is this perhaps a bookend vorticy? I am a little confused! Any comments! Might have to check radar.
This is certainly a nice funnel probable tornado and almost certainly anticyclonic.
This is another example of sparse population still picking up tornado on video likely from a farm near Inverell.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi Everyone,
on the Afternoon of 14/09/2010 a Storm line of around 4 cells were heading dead east from Approx - 29°53'12.14"S 150°58'22.57"E, the cell that spawned this funnel broke off this line and headed in a North Easterly Line towards the town of Inverell, the first time i saw the funnel was about 5:16pm AEST at approx. 29°49'45.26"S 151° 1'22.98"E, the footage was shot from Approx 29°50'9.55"S 151° 2'28.26"E and the funnel only lasted until the rain band caught up, and i had to bolt into the shed for cover as the rain was very cold :d (no hail though), it made a slight re appearance near Inverell, just to the south, before giving a final gustnado and the rotation stopped, the cloud lifted and the cell moved towards the east as a heavy rain band. at this point i decided not to pursue the storm.(even though it was heading towards Elsmore!) i have not heard of any damage so far, or any other funnel sightings.
Safe Hunting.
Stormy (AusStorm)
www.youtube.com/user/AusStorm (http://www.youtube.com/user/AusStorm)
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Stormy,
That is really top class footage there. I agree with Jimmy, the rotation does appear to be anticyclonic. That is confusing me since I would have expected the storms heading due east to have cyclonic rotation if anything. On the radar loop it can be seen that there is a cell split which occurs west of Inverell with the resulting right mover heading SE. Based on your descriptions though, it doesn't sound like this storm was that right mover. You were looking WNW right?
Maybe this raises the question about the tornadic potential of other storms on the day.
Great stuff, congrats!
Michael
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Thank you Michael.
yes, the cell came from my SW (where the cells split downstream of Copeton Dam,) tracking NE,The video is pointed WNW, the cell tracked just to my north and headed east past Inverell and then looked to join back with the other cells and head east to the Great Divide.
I was watching the cell on the Namoi Radar heading towards Tamworth, it looked quite nasty there for a while, any reports of funnels, hail or damage from that cell that anyone knows of?
Take Care.
Stormy.
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Stormy,
Did you note anticyclonic rotation - in other words anticlockwise rotation looking from the top down? Also, can you upload any other video of the storm as it approached? Where were the winds from just prior to the arrival of the storm?
It seems like if the storm was joining with other storms, it could have been a storm collision, or the hodographs may have favoured anticyclonic structures? Perhaps this is a book end vorticy.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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just got back from NSW holiday, gotta say i knew something interesting was happening in those storms, just not on the cell i thought
really imagine the amazing things in that Gunnedah hook ;)