Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 09 August 2010, 01:21:53 AM
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Over the last 3-4 days the GFS models have indicated there is a significant chance of good rain totals for next week, 9-12 of August 2010.
The synoptic charts shows a trough and a deep low pressure system that will intensify over the interior in a core of cold air. This in turn, should result in a wet, cold and windy week. Totals over 50+mm could be seen over some areas.
Col
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Weather models are showing a significant rain event for Monday and Tuesday across eastern inland Australia (New South Wales, Queensland and large parts of Victoria) and clearing to the coast by Wednesday.
For New South Wales, GFS is showing falls of 10 to 30 mm across the inland slopes and plains stretching from the South West Slopes to the North West Slopes of the state. The GFS is not suggesting significant rainfall across the far west of the state.
The Bureau of Meteorology Land and Water "Cumulative 4 Day Model" for 8 to 12 August (Produced 8/8/10 and attached below) does suggest good rainfall across Eastern Queensland and far North East New South Wales of 50 to 100 mm as well as general rains of 10 to 25 mm across the slopes and plains of New South Wales. Heavier falls of 25 to 50 mm are suggested across North East New South Wales such as the North West Slopes and New England as well as for a small area in southern New South Wales. The model suggests little rain for far western New South Wales and the east coast of the state.
The model also shows reasonable falls for Central Victoria and North East Victoria from this system.
Harley Pearman
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Looking like quite an interesting event. Might even see a few storms around on Tuesday. Wind shear will be quite impressive along almost the entire east coast Qld, even up into the tropics. Though it looks like the major feature will be a large rain band moving through eastern Qld. With some clearing/heating maybe we will see a few storms but I think that the poor low/mid level lapse rates and lack of CAPE will really limit things. I might be wrong though.
I will throw this out there too but I think down around the South West Slopes and Plains and Riverina area (and adjacent parts of Victoria) might be worth keeping an eye on if the latest GFS is anyting to go on. This area is close the the centre of the 500 mbar low and on the right exist region of a strong 500 mbar low. In addition it also appears as is a warm front sitting somewhere around or south of the NSW/Vic border. If there is some clearing to allow for some heating with dew points around 10C then CAPE should be ~500 j/kg. Not fantastic but this CAPE is fairly compacted due to steep lapse rates and a low EL.
Michael
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well it looks like late Tuesday night around 9 -12 SE QLD and NE NSW will be having a very very windy night as you can see below.
Antonio.
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I've added VIC and TAS to the thread subject as the models have consistently forecast good falls for those states including Melbourne and Hobart. An East Coast Low over eastern TAS forecast during Wednesday is ideal for good falls in those areas.
Also on the cards is snow for parts of the NSW Northern Tablelands. The models have been fairly consistent with this as well with 850 hPa temps below 2C and 850 hPa heights around 1440 metres from early evening Wednesday and well into Thursday. Moisture does look good until mid morning Thursday.
Antonio - those are winds at 850hPa not the surface.
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Thunderstorms have been developing across far north western and inland northern New South Wales throughout the afternoon of 9/8/2010. The affected areas are mainly west of Cobar and Bourke and roughly east of White Cliffs.
The GPATS Lightning tracker from 6 pm to 6 pm 8/8/10 to 9/8/10 shows 1,683 lightning flashes within the sphere of New South Wales with a majority of that across the far west and north west of the state. Peak activity was between 1 pm and 6 pm with the period 2 pm to 3 pm showing the highest number of strikes.
There is cloud, shower and continuing thunderstorm activity north of Griffith at 8 pm 9/8/10 and cloud is spreading south. However the majority of the thunderstorm activity is still across the northern central areas of the state.
Further, the GFS models are showing some good falls of rain across large areas of Victoria at least within the range of 25 to 50 mm throughout the event with heavier falls centred around and near Melbourne and on and near the north east highlands.
Harley Pearman
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Antonio - those are winds at 850hPa not the surface.
My apologies, do you have any surface wind maps i can look at?
Also here in Ballina it is very windy at the moment and drizzly for about 30mins now. bring on the rain!
Antonio.
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We copped a ripper storm last night at about 10:30pm.
Only got 6mm in rain but the HAIL!!!
It started off just hailing, no rain, and some of it was the size of a two dollar coin.
The lightning was constant flashing for about half an hour and the thunder shook the windows!
More storms coming now, thunder is getting louder.
Might be a good day down here!
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My apologies, do you have any surface wind maps i can look at?
Also here in Ballina it is very windy at the moment and drizzly for about 30mins now. bring on the rain!
Antonio.
G'day Antonio,
Go to WZ site http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/ (http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/)
Then scroll down to the Surface Temperature Wind charts, you should see these chart (ie http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/index.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mso=0&mc=sfc&focus=mc (http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/index.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs&mso=0&mc=sfc&focus=mc))
Cheers
Col
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Kristy - looks like that storm cell targeted you pretty much:
128km Radar Loop for Yarrawonga, 10:00 09/08/2010 to 15:00 09/08/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR493/2010-08-09-10/2010-08-09-15/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR493-yarrawonga/2010-08-09-10/2010-08-09-15)
Antonio, you can also plot custom maps including surface winds from the GFS plotter:
http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/gfs_plot.html (http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/gfs_plot.html)
MB
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Collin & Michael thanks for the information and the links, on the topic now it is very windy and rainy here at the moment i think heavier rain is about to rain down on us within the next hour as it is now near tweed heads i think Ballina/Byron are going to cop it later, this morning it was so heavy that you could not see the houses across the road so that was quiet amazing to see. one bad thing with the wind so far is i dont think my rainfall readings are so accurate due to the rain falling sideways? the readings for me are 19.2mm from 9am to 9am YESTERDAY and today so far 0.3mm right now our backyard looks like a giant mud bath.
if you would like to see minute to minute rainfall data for the Ballina coastal region click below on my banner to see my weather stations obs will be on until midnight tonight!
Antonio
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a quick update:
latest wind gust 61kmh ENE
Rain since 9am 34.2mm
it is just bucketing down and the radar barley shows 2 colors up so i guess its because the clouds are very low also compared to Ballina AP 5- 6ks inland we are copping it.
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Rainfall for 10/8/2010
An isolated thunderstorm cell near Yarrawonga at 1 pm appears to be dropping some heavy showers in the vicinity of the town. The towns weather station has recorded 11 mm of rain from 9 am to 1 pm. Additionally Wangaratta has had 18 mm in the same period. Some moderate to heavy showers with some thunderstorm activity features across south west New South Wales.
Good overnight widespread rainfalls of 5 to 30 mm has occurred across a wide swath of the slopes and plains of New South Wales from the north west to the south west and falls continue. The best falls for the 24 hours to 9 am 10/8/2010 include 39 mm at Mt Kaputar, 28 mm at Mudgee and Orange, 26 mm at Coonamble and an isolated 25 mm fall at Deniliquin.
Northern Victoria roughly east of Swan Hill including Shepparton, Wangaratta region and Echuca received at least 10 to 18 mm for the 24 hours to 9 am 10/8/2010.
Here in Sydney, rainfall is light but prolonged. At Blacktown 3.6 mm fell before 9 am and another 3.5 mm has fallen to 1 pm. Rainfall has not been significant but low cloud and light rain has made August 10 2010 a cold dreary day.
Harley Pearman
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Just another quick update until later on:
Rain has finally become lighter in a way
the wind is terrible some pot plants flipped over as well as the tree in the park next door loosing a branch.
Antonio.
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Some photos of a nice little storm that came through this afternoon, facing north from the house. Nice lightning and small hail.
There have been storms all day in the area and I would imagine some good rainfall totals, especially around around Yarrawonga.
Edited to add....Just saw on channel SEVEN news someone has taken a photo of an awesome tornado near Echuca. Wow!!
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Rain has continued to fall all day here in Brisbane. The heaviest of the falls in the SEQ was that on the Gold Coast with Coolangatta receiving 43 mm as at 6.27 pm.
The radar is showing heavy rain moving in this evening just as the weather forecast has predicted. Tomorrow we should be seeing some very high totals in some areas and with this comes the possibility of flash flooding.
So take care.
Col
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We had some very heavy rain through out the night. Here at Bracken Ridge we received 92mm since 9.00am Tuesday morning.
WZ News States that QLD had record rains for August. Part of the article states:
Record August rain floods Queensland
Press Release, Wednesday August 11, 2010 - 09:03 EST
Many Queenslanders have been experiencing their heaviest August rain on record as widespread 50 to 100 millimetres leads to flooding, according to weatherzone.com.au.
Since early Tuesday widespread 50 to 100mm has affected a huge area of many thousands of kilometres, from the NSW border to Townsville and inland, past Emerald.
The Southeast Coast has been one of the wettest areas in the state. Brisbane has had its highest 24-hour August total in 123 years and its heaviest rain since February. Since 9am Tuesday about 78mm has fallen in the city, making this the wettest 24-hour period in August since 1887. In August that year 220mm fell in a two-day deluge including a record 124mm in a day.
In the last 24 hours the heaviest rain in the area has been south of the city, where Archerfield broke an August record, gaining 83mm. Its previous August record was 67mm, set in 1966.
Falls in excess of 100mm have been recorded in Burbank, Rochedale, Mt Cotton and Carbrook.
Col
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With this weather system a tornado hit Moama last night on the Vic/NSW border.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/tornado-rips-through-echuca-moama-amid-melbournes-severe-weather-warnings/story-e6frf7kx-1225903728133 (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/tornado-rips-through-echuca-moama-amid-melbournes-severe-weather-warnings/story-e6frf7kx-1225903728133)
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Moama tornado which appear to have occurred just after 4pm 10 August 2010
THE MOAMA TORNADO (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUBQjZ9FuCg#)
See : 128km Radar Loop for Yarrawonga, 03:00 10/08/2010 to 10:00 10/08/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR493/2010-08-10-03/2010-08-10-10/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR493-yarrawonga/2010-08-10-03/2010-08-10-10)
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Happy to see that these morons find it all too funny that someone's house may have been damaged - nice footage. Commentary leaves much to be desired regrettably!
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As the rain band (trough) moves out to sea, the low will deepen and tomorrow we are faced with the onslaught of strong winds. With all the rain we have had it is only natural for the ground to soften which in turn could cause many problems. There is severe weather warning in place for much of the South East.
BOM have issued this Warning for the SEQ:
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging wind gusts for Thursday
For people in the Wide Bay and Burnett district south of Maryborough to Proston,
the Darling Downs and Granite Belt east of Texas to Dalby and the South-east
Coast.
Issued at 11:25 am on Wednesday 11 August 2010
Synoptic Situation:
A low near Victoria is expected to deepen overnight and produce a tight pressure
gradient across the south-east corner of the state during Thursday.
SW winds with gusts in excess of 90 kph will develop early Thursday especially
about the higher ground.
The next warning is due to be issued by 5 pm Wednesday AEST.
Col
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The widespread nature of the heavy falls in QLD was impressive. Must be one of the best "rain band" events for this time of years in a very long time.
Maps shows 24 hours fall to 9am 11 August.
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Here is another video-
Tornado rips through Moama (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/7943200/tornado-rips-through-moama)
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Rainfall summary for 24 hours to 9 am 11/8/2010
Note:- All figures quoted here are from the various BOM Weather station network for 11/8/2010.
In addition to earlier posts, some of the heaviest rain occurred around Brisbane including 100 mm at Carindale, 103 mm at Mt Cotton and 109 mm at Burbank Alert. Rainfalls of between 50 to 100 mm were common right across Brisbane and its suburban areas.
The Richmond / Tweed area of far NE New South Wales received from 50 mm to 80 mm and Gold Coast region 50 mm to 60 mm of rain.
The best falls were around Bundaberg - 105 mm, Harvey Bay - 100 mm and the Mackay region (Anywhere from 77 mm to 112 mm).
Isolated heavy falls also occurred around inland North West New South Wales such as 50 mm at Mt Lindsay and 41 mm at Mt Kaputar.
Parts of Southern Victoria received some significant falls including Port Fairy 56 mm, Apollo Bay 60 mm, Mt Sabine 82 mm and Weeaproinah 92 mm. Melbourne received much lighter totals.
Looking at the various weather stations across Southern New South Wales and Northern Victoria, thunderstorms and showers brought mixed rainfalls. Many places received strong rainfalls such as Jingellic 30 mm, Khancoban 34 mm, Benalla 34 mm, Yarrawonga 32 mm, Wangaratta 35 mm, Wagga Wagga 30 mm, Tarcutta 35 mm, Tumbarumba 39 mm and Batlow 44 mm yet other places missed out or received light falls.
Albury Airport is one such place. An afternoon thunderstorm moved right over Albury then Wodonga from the north to south but missed the airport rain gauge and hence a final figure of 8.2 mm for the 24 hours to 9 am 11/8/10 has occurred. The airport figure may not be representative of what happened 2 or 3 km away. Further, the nearby Lake Hume Weather station had 12 mm for the same period. Griffith received 3.2 mm, Yanco 3 mm and Hay 2 mm. This shows the nature of the event that has just occurred. Some places did well while other places missed out. Hence many of the storms and showers were hit or miss across this region.
Harley Pearman
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Was Watching Bom Radar When This All Happened And Shouted Out To The Wife And Told Her Something Interesting Was Happening Near The Border
Then Awoke This Morning To The News Of A Tornado
Interesting To See So Many Of These Winter Events This Year, But With The Rise Of YouTube And Changing Weather Patterns Its Not Surprising
I Had Wanted To Posted Some Information Earlier But Took Awhile For My Account To Be Activated And Then Someone Beat Me To It
Ill Post An Introduction Later
Hardy
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PS: Sandra Sully On Late News Just Said " mini cyclone" i wanna slap her for not knowing better and her cue writters for being stupid. how can you show a full picture of a tornado then say " mini cyclone" far out
Haha that made me laugh cause when the lennox waterspout happened it was a "mini cyclone" my goodness the news is dumb.
Also welcome to the forum.
Antonio
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Hi all, a whole heap of my pics chasing southern NSW on 10th August are posted at the link below.
Im happy to post them here but it takes too long to upload them - Michael or Jimmy let me know if there is an easier way thanks.
I got a beautiful squall line and shelf amongst other storms in a rewarding chase a long way from home. Thanks to Nick Moir and John Allen for their assistance with forcast, targetting and nowcasting.
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=587&p=23487#p23487 (http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=587&p=23487#p23487)
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Nice photos there Brad, not bad for August! Is that a funnel under the base of a developing cumulus in one of the photos? The conditions were pretty good out that way, nice low LCL, nice low-level CAPE and steep lapse rates. Correct me if I am wrong but I think there was a boundary running E-W close to the NSW-Vic border. This boundary (I would call it a warm front) seperated a cooler more stable air mass in central/souther Vic from a warmer air mass in NSW. I suspect that an interaction of the storm with this boundary was quite important. Although, there were several storms occurring at the time and other storms had occurred earlier in the day so an interaction with an outflow boundary may of been involved. Just some ideas.
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Hi Michael, thanks for your comments. I do think you are right re a boundary and it was definitely warmer and more unstable in NSW earlier (more heating was evident) and then the instability moved into Vic later on. Yes that was a funnel and that was the main reason for watching that cell as it was one of the smaller for the arvo! I saw the punching updraft first in my rear vision and stopped to watch it when I noticed first the funnel develop and then ragged scud start to organise but it was moving south and I was waiting for the squall to come through from the NW so I let it go. Regarding outflow boundaries, two very large storms had moved through the region earlier in the day including one just prior to the funnel and also a very large storm around 2pm (that I am informed displayed supercellular characteristics on radar) so I guess the outflow boundary theory is possible but as you said, the conditions were pretty good as it was with the LCL's, steep lapse rates, OK cape and some shear to boot.
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As Brisbane was battered with Strong Gusty winds, the Granite Belt region of Stanthorpe felt the Arctic blast with sleet falling throughout the region. Stanthorpe reached a maximum of 9C yesterday, all be it, probably only for a few minutes. Every time I checked the current conditions for the area, the thermometer seemed to only hover around the 5C mark. I am wondering if MB and Co. chased the snow/sleet around the table lands. According to BOM there is once again the chance of sleet this morning,(Friday) for the region.
In Brisbane and surrounding areas, including as far North as Gympie, tree branches and trees brought down power lines resulting in about 6000 homes/business loosing power. I believe this was not as bad as it could have been for the fact that the strongest wind gust was 70Km/h at Archerfield, this falling short of the 90km/h plus winds that were first predicted. Damage was minimal according to reports from the SES.
Some boats on the Brisbane River lost their moorings and drifted around the river. A barge servicing the Tugun desalination plant was washed ashore with the strong winds and large seas.
Weather conditions should ease and improve by this afternoon.
Col.
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Great photos Brad!
Where abouts were you guys chasing?
Some of those photos certainly look VERY close to home!
That storm looks like the same one that came barreling through here. The shelf cloud was just getting organised as it went over us at about 4:30-5pm.
My husband was caught up in the monster that went through Berrigan at 1:30 pm on his way home. Another storm N/NE of Corowa at 2:30pm was looking great as well.
I hope we have a nice stormy Spring here!!!
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Hi Brad - you can add a stack of images using the IMG tags to your hosted photos rather than trying to attach them.
Jason Paterson, Dave Sercombe and I chased the NTs. We got to Guyra about 11pm on Wednesday night to a snow shower that briefly accumulated. Unfortunately the rest of the time up there only managed sleet and drizzle or frozen drizzle. There was precip most of the time with temps mainly in the 1.5 to 3 range though it dropped to 0.9 at the lowest we observed. I've never seen so many sleet showers for so long (almost all of Thursday during the day in the Black Mountain, Guyra, Ben Lomond, Maybole areas - also Glen Innes on the way home). Many of the showers were briefly classifiable as snow but bits of rain amongst it was the norm and meant everything melted on impact - so no accumulations.
Regardless, we had a great time in the cold (and "wet snow") and also met up for a catch up with Martha from the Guyra Argus later in the afternoon.
A couple of possible reasons for the lack of snow accumulations:
- 850 hPa temps at least 1 degree too warm
- windy conditions so a well mixed boundary layer which meant the higher elevation didn't make much difference to surface temps. eg driving between 1100m and 1350m didn't change the temp as much as can happen in other setups.
- inversion varying between about 800 hPa and 700 hPa which prevented deeper clouds
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Great photos Brad!
Where abouts were you guys chasing?
Some of those photos certainly look VERY close to home!
That storm looks like the same one that came barreling through here. The shelf cloud was just getting organised as it went over us at about 4:30-5pm.
My husband was caught up in the monster that went through Berrigan at 1:30 pm on his way home. Another storm N/NE of Corowa at 2:30pm was looking great as well.
I hope we have a nice stormy Spring here!!!
You got it right Kristy - I was on that storm and drove through your area a few times! Now you can see what the shelf ended up looking like ;D
The early photos (distant pano and close up with lowerings) was the early storm and possible supercell i'm informed with flanking line so I assume thats the monster your husband saw.
The 3rd storm you mention is also in my photos (in the background) that feature the smaller rapidly developing cells with organised lowerings and funnels. As Michael has suggested, it may have been outflow boundaries from the big storm that was initiating these smaller cells in a potent environment. Certainly looked that way.
Brad.
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Hi Brad - you can add a stack of images using the IMG tags to your hosted photos rather than trying to attach them.
Ok thanks Michael
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Moama Twister (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2jVZStIX0g#)
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Nice video, so what is the conclusion regarding this tornado, mesocyclonic or non-mesocyclonic? I am in two minds. The radar presentation of this storm was not very spectacular. Having said that, the tornado does not look like your typical non-mesocyclonic tornado (landspout). The behaviour of the tornado and what appears to be a clear slot from an RFD would seem to suggest that it was mesocyclonic. On top of that, the conditions on the day were supportive of low-topped supercells.
Michael
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Nice video, so what is the conclusion regarding this tornado, mesocyclonic or non-mesocyclonic? I am in two minds. The radar presentation of this storm was not very spectacular. Having said that, the tornado does not look like your typical non-mesocyclonic tornado (landspout). The behaviour of the tornado and what appears to be a clear slot from an RFD would seem to suggest that it was mesocyclonic. On top of that, the conditions on the day were supportive of low-topped supercells.
Michael
I Would Have To Agree, I Watched This On Radar When It Happened And Again On The Saved Loop And Combined With The Footage Floating Around In My Mind It Was Meso
But Its Not As Clear And Cut As With Some Other Events
Michael B thats some pretty good footage didnt see that on youtube when i looked
Funny that we spent all summer chasing different storms and setups and nothing like this happened, now its winter and the prize gems come out, thats mother nature for you
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Hi guys,
Awesome footage from all angles of this tornado. I love the comentary.
I suspect this tornado is from a low topped supercell and an occulsion has taken place. There was a nice clear slot in the second video posted from ninemsn website.
Regards,
jimmy Deguara
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Hi guys,
Awesome footage from all angles of this tornadoes. I love the commentary.
When I went back and listened to the commentary, it opens up a can of worms for me.
Col.
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Rainfall for week ending 13 August 2010
I have added below the rainfall plot for Eastern Australia and Murray Darling Basin Region for the week ending 13 August 2010, produced 14/8/10 from the BOM "Water and the Land" site.
It shows the spread of the rain event just concluded. Generally other than far western NSW, north west Victoria (Mallee) and coastal New South Wales from Sydney to Coffs Harbour, much of eastern Australia did well from the weather event.
An exceptional and unusual thunderstorm event occurred at Wagga Wagga Tuesday afternoon in which one intense storm passed over the region dropping some 30 mm of rain. This was a rare storm event for the city for August. As a result of Tuesdays storms in this region, the rainfall for Wagga Wagga for 2010 now stands at some 548.6 mm. This compares to 185 mm for the same period for 2009. This is 363 mm more than 1 year ago as at 14 August 2009. The storms at Wagga Wagga is a big contrast to 2009.
Harley Pearman
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It's also worth noting the rainfall in Tasmania, especially around Hobart as they've had an extremely dry year. The rain this week almost doubled the annual total for some places. Hobart recorded 75mm while Mt Wellington received 249mm.
Attached map is for the same period as the one Harley posted.
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Just realised I had not posted any photos from the Northern Tablelands snow chase on 12th August
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0812mb04.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0812mb08.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0812mb12.jpg)
The rest are here (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F141___12+august+2010+mb)
MB
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Would have been nice to be there Michael, I love that sort of weather. I was reading an earlier post in this thread of where you chased, but are most of those shots around the Ben Lomond area?
Cheers
Colin
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Hi Colin,
The first two shown above were near Black Mountain and the third is Ben Lomond. It's a pity the temps were not a fraction cooler as there would have been a lot of snow cover otherwise.