Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => General Weather - all topics not current severe weather. => Topic started by: David C on 31 August 2007, 07:34:53 AM
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Spring has sprung in Sydney for the time being with mid- to high 20s maxima the norm lately. Also encouraged by potential for a cool to cold outbreak next week, the atmosphere is on the move so to speak. In fact, it kind of gets one thinking about what this spring/summer will dish out to us all over the next 6 months or so.
The traditional 'storm season' begins October 1 (I believe that is when the BoM up their staffing levels on the severe weather roster, at least here in NSW). That said, severe storms can occur at any time of the year here, and powerful storm systems are certainly not unheard of over eastern Australia in September.
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9609-02.htm
or
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/video/stills/2000/0926dc005.jpg
As is always the case, PBL moisture is often the most sought after and hard-to-come-by ingredient in this country. SOI has been neutral for some time and climate models are trending more and more to a La Niña. 3-month rainfall outlooks are sitting on the fence. Other factors to consider are when we get out of this current hemispheric longwave pattern into a more progressive one with an active jet stream in place over southern Australia. I'm optimistic for some good early season action.
Anyone have any thoughts? or bought any new gear for chasing? or intend on chasing?
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David,
I am quietly optimistic for some decent action as we had our first weak southeast change. The timing and the strength of the change don't add up to what normally occurs. I would say usually early in the season, we get some reasonably decent south east changes. This to me represents a change in the overall pattern and moisture shift.
I even posted comments in respose to last season's SE change activity. It seemed relentless and practically destroyed the quality timing of that season when the jet stream is normally quite active.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I hope we don't have a repeat of last year. Interestingly although last year was quite stormless the storms tended to be more freak than usual, for example 8/11/06 storms and 15/11/06 storm, and 16/12/06 storms (in SE QLD) were very severe with sustained brown cores and supercellular features. Although with recent predictions I think that we'll have some repeats of the 2004-2005 storm season.