Australian Severe Weather Forum

Just a little note that I was waiting for - the signs of winter are on their way. Temps in Melbourne are expected to finally dip below 15C for a max, with 3 vigorous cold-fronts approaching with the second of these fronts likely to produce mountain snow to 800m in TAS, and alpine snow in NSW & VIC. SA is likely to feel the brunt of the first front sometime during Thursday.

It is already cold overnights here, with temps overnight dipping into mid-to-low single digits across inland areas. Frosts are possible inland and coastal over next few days.

I will keep and eye on this system, as it will affect me (brrr)

Big Pete
(breaking out the parka)

This system is shaping up as a good one for some decent rainfall accumulations. GFS has forecast widespread totals of 75 -100mm for the week ahead over parts of SA, TAS and VIC. The BoM's 4 day outlook is tipping up to 50mm.

EC is throwing up an interesting scenario at the end of the run (and did yesterday as well): a cut-off LOW over West VIC.

I was looking at the Alpine forecast in Vic to see if you are going to get snow, because we are now, for me and many others, comming into snow chasing season. ( I was wondering at the probabilty of snow once again in Brisbane,)  but that is another story, so back to the cold front you are talking about Big Pete, this is the VIC BOM forecast for Mt Hotham regarding the cold rain.

Forecast for Sunday

Cloudy. A few showers during the morning. A few snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 45 to 55 km/h, reaching 65 km/h at times, tending westerly 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.
Precis:
Snow and windy.
Min 3   Max 3

Forecast for Monday

Becoming cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly averaging 25 to 30 km/h.
Precis:
Chance of snow.  Min -3  Max 1

Forecast for Tuesday

Cloudy. The chance of snow showers. Winds east to northeasterly averaging 20 to 30 km/h tending southeasterly up to 50 km/h during the afternoon.
Precis:
Chance of snow and windy . Min 1   Max 2

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Wednesday.

WZ has Falls Creek slightly colder. So it looks as if you will be having some snow in the Alpines.

It has been a very  long hot summer for many , but probably a very cold winter comming.

Col

This weather event could help the drought situation as well. Rain models such as the one attached below are showing:-

- Most of Victoria and southern New South Wales having a good chance of receiving at least 1 mm of rain.
- A majority of the state of Victoria except the western part having a good chance of receiving at least 5 mm of rain.
- Much of North East Victoria having a good chance of receiving at least 10 mm of rain.
- Parts of North East Victoria and Melbourne region having a good chance of receiving at least 15 mm of rain.

Rainfall models are showing potential higher totals in the 25 mm to 50 mm range in some of the more hilly areas of North East Victoria and upper Murray Region from this rain event.

The rain model provided below is from the Bureau of Meteorology "Land and Water" at:- http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Harley Pearman

Just checking the snow models from Ski.com.au. for Snowy Mountains in NSW, they have summarized the weather pattern as

Current Weather Situation and Future Developments
Fine conditions will persist until a cold front brings rain as it approaches and
crosses the region this afternoon and tonight. Further showers will persist in
the colder stream following the front this weekend. These showers will turn to
snow down to 1200m on Sunday.  Blizzard conditions are possible about high
elevation this Sunday. Further isolated showers will persist into the new week.


 Sundays forecast for the VIC Alpine region is for rain & hail till late afternoon, so I just checked Melbourne's forecast to see if they are in for hail, and this is what BOM has predicted for Melbourne on Sunday

Forecast for Sunday

Cloudy. Areas of rain, easing to isolated showers later in the evening. Local hail and thunder possible. Winds west to northwesterly averaging 35 to 45 km/h tending westerly up to 60 km/h around dawn then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h later in the evening.
City
Rain periods, windy.
Min 9  Max 14

Rain event for Adelaide 24/4/2009

Overnight and early morning to 24/4/2009, the city of Adelaide received some good rainfalls. Given that it has been dry here of recent times, the falls are significant. In particular:-

- The best falls in South Australia are largely limited to Metropolitan Adelaide and immediate environs.
- The highest total fell at Mt Lofty Alert Weather Station with 57 mm.
- The north west and western suburbs received between 17 and 24 mm.
- The southern suburbs received between 18 and 51 mm with Stuart at Minno receiving 51 mm.
- The north eastern suburbs received between 26 and 42 mm.

The eastern suburbs on the slopes of the Mt Lofty Ranges received from 27 to 57 mm. East of the ranges, a rain shadow is visible with between 6 and 24 mm falling.

Lighter rainfalls fell across Victoria 24/4/2009 however since 4 pm a stronger rainfall event has affected North East Victoria that has brought some very good falls here as well. This event is still occurring.

The rain plot for Adelaide is for the 24 hours from the Bureau of Meteorology - 23/4/09 to 24/4/09 "Water and the Land" web site and is a total from all the rain gauges across the city and surrounds.

Harley Pearman

North East Victoria Rain event 24/4/2009

The bulk of the rain is clearing eastwards but an area south of Wagga Wagga in southern New South Wales, east of Rutherglen (Northern Victoria) and much of North East Victoria experienced a rain band from 4 pm to 8 pm 24/4/09 that has dropped some worthwhile totals.

However there are numerous showers following the rain band so totals from 7 pm 24/4/2009 will change.

The rain plot from the various weather stations for North East Victoria up to 7 pm 24/4/2009 from the Bureau of Meteorology "Land and Water" Web site is attached below which shows the affected region.

The best totals in descending order in the affected region include:-

Mt Buffalo Chalet - 59 mm, Cheshunt - 30 mm, Black Range Trout Farm - 29 mm, Handcock - 26 mm, Lake Buffalo - 26 mm, L V Hovell - 26 mm, Bright - 23 mm, Albury Airport Borella Road - 20 mm and Wangaratta 13 mm.

The best totals are in the ranges and catchments of the Murray River in north east Victoria and these falls are by far the best in a while.

It appears that this rainfall event is going to help the drought situation in the region and provide some runoff into local streams.

Harley Pearman

Overnight rainfalls - NE Victoria 25/4/2009

Overnight more rainfall affected NE Victoria with totals topping 79 mm at Mt Buffalo Chalet. Following my last post further good rainfalls affected the region however the falls have now eased. In descending order, the best falls for the 21 hours from 24/4/09 to 6 am  25/4/09 are:-

Mt Buffalo Chalet 79 mm, Mt Hotham 51 mm, Lake Buffalo 42 mm, Cheshunt 38 mm, Black Range Trout Farm 36 mm, Bright 34 mm, L W Hovell 34, Charnwood 30 mm.

The plot from the Bureau of Meteorology "Water and the Land" Web site for 6 am 25/4/2009 shows the affected region from the various weather stations.

The big falls have occurred mainly within the mountainous region of the state.

Today there are severe weather alerts across the state for a cold front that will bring much colder conditions including rain / showers/ local hail. In addition:-

- An alert is in place for Alpine areas for winds of up to 80 km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h as the next cold front approaches the region.
- Alerts are also in place for sheep farmers north and south of the divide being a sheep graziers alert for cold, wet windy conditions and temperatures as low as 4C in some areas.
- Gale warning for coastal areas from the South Australian border to the New South Wales border.
- High seas wind warning.

Harley Pearman

Forum member Kristy just send these great photos of a funnel. They were taken at 5.10pm 25th April near Corowa, NSW

There were STW in place for our area last night, although I didn't get a chance to look at the local radar around the time I saw the funnel as I was on my way home in the car. It was about 10kms west of Corowa. 
We have had a total of 35mm rain here since Friday. Another storm came through about 8:30pm last night dumping 19mm in twenty minutes, also some small hail. It's very cold and gusty today with some more showers and possible thunderstorms forecast for later.

That is an incredible funnel cloud Kristy! That is a funnel with complete clear slot cutting in - obviously extreme vorticity along the boundary. Awesome!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Some good snow falls have appeared on the snow models for Falls Creek, Mt Hotham, Thredbo, basically the Alpine areas of VIC and NSW. From ABC news headlines it is reported that " Falls Creek resident Chris Hocking says up to 10 centimetres of snow has fallen in the area since 10.00pm last night, and there is more on the way.

"More snow [is] expected today, probably another 5 or 10 centimetres, so I'm really hoping to get the skis out there maybe later in the day," the resident said."

This is in line with the snow forecast and models.

Strong winds clocking up to 116km/h have battered Cape Otway, Vic. last night and this morning. There has also been some good rainfall .the weather Bureau has said " Mount Buffalo, in the state's northeast, had already experienced 61mm of rain while the Buckland region in the Ovens River catchment area had 48mm and Mount Hotham 47mm."

Link to follow snow models and forecast ( http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://weather.ski.com.au/data/sat_aus_latest.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ski.com.au/weather/&h=576&w=720&sz=72&tbnid=XIDocjKiu9Y8hM::&tbnh=112&tbnw=140&prev=/images%3Fq%3DAUS%2Bsat%2BPIC&hl=en&usg=__wK1DFmdyrs0teihX5S8Z1hVQ130=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=1&ct=image&cd=1). What a long address but good sight.

Rain event and storm NE Victoria 25/4/2009

I was able to obtain this radar image at 9.10 pm 25/4/09 of a rain band with an embedded thunderstorm / squall line moving across North East Victoria. It is just west of Albury - Wodonga at this time.

I was out most of Saturday so I do not know what happened prior to 8 pm. However, from 8 pm, a severe thunderstorm alert was in place for NE Victoria and Southern NSW specific for:-

- Damaging wind.
- Hail.
- Heavy rain.

Places in the warning area included Albury - Wodonga and Hay.

The radar image from Weatherzone (Yarrawonga Radar) provides a snap shot on what was going on. Shortly after this, the squall line passed over the Albury Airport Weather Station in Borella Road. It was a narrow squall line but it was the cold front and the wind change. At this weather station:-

- The event started with light rain at 8 pm but there was already 10 mm in the rain gauge from earlier rain and showers.

- 8.30 pm Northerly wind at 26 km/h with peak gusts to 44 km/h. Temperature of 15.5C.
- 9.00 pm Northerly wind at 24 km/h with peak gusts to 41 km/h. Temperature of 14.5C.
- 9.26 PM Westerly wind at 50 km/h with peak gusts to 70 km/h. Temperature of 8.1C.
- 10.00 PM Westerly wind at 11 km/h with peak gusts to 17 km/h. Temperature of 9.5C.

The squall line dropped 11 mm of rain here so 21 mm fell for the day at this weather station.

The squall line produced wind gusts to 70 km/here for several minutes as it passed over from 9.23 pm to 9.30 pm.

The Rutherglen Weather Station to the west had peak wind gusts to 57 km/h as it passed over but it was not as dramatic as at Albury Airport.

The squall line started to weaken well to the east in the foothills of the Snowy Mountains.

The squall line at the time 8 pm - 10.30 pm mainly affected NE Victoria and into Southern New South south of Wagga Wagga.

Harley Pearman

Victoria Rainfall to 9 am 26/4/09

I have been watching this rain event for Victoria via "Weatherzone" and "Bureau of Meteorology". In addition to the thunderstorms plus the excellent photos of the funnell cloud near Corowa, snow, gales and severe weather alerts, this weather system has produced worth while rain across much of the state. However, North East Victoria stands out because for the second day in a row up until 9 am 26/4/09, the heaviest falls have occurred again in this region. In descending order, the best falls are:-

Mt Buffalo Chalet - 61 mm, Upper Buckland - 52 mm, Koetong - 49 mm, Granite Flat - 44 mm, Hunters Hills AWS - 41 mm, Cheshunt - 39 mm, L W Hovell - 37 mm and Handcock 35 mm.

Hence for the 2 days, Mt Buffalo Chalet has received some 140 mm.

This has occurred in the river catchments.

Even in the adjacent inland south east New South Wales, similar good falls occurred for the same period. In descending order, Thredbo - 75 mm, Thredbo AWS - 53 mm, Cabramurra - 42 mm and Khancoban - 30 mm are some of the better falls.

A small portion of SW Victoria scored good falls as well.

The plot for Victoria for the 24 hours 9 am 25/4/2009 to 26/4/2009 is attached below.

Harley Pearman

It is bitterly cold here,
and I had heard there had been a "mini" tornado reported in VIC's western district, but I have any heard from a TV news report, no other confirmation as to where and when.

Maybe someone else may shed some light on this.

Big Pete
(rugging up)