Australian Severe Weather Forum

GFS is trying to develop a similar setup to 8th July 2007 this Sunday, which produced daytime snow across the Northern Tablelands and even thundersnow. EC and GASP are not so favourable at this stage pushing the cold pool through earlier. NSW BoM already mention snow possible for Sunday on the Central and Northern Tablelands.

Apart from the tablelands snow chances, conditions will be quite favourable with widespread showers, rain or thunderstorms across SA, VIC, NSW and S QLD the next couple of days. Hopefully some decent falls will occur where it's needed.

Just saw that Adelaide is expecting 30-50mm over the weekend. I was there last weekend and it desperately needs it, looking very dry over that way.

I am going (sort of) camping at Cataract Scout Camp this weekend for a radio club thing, I wonder if it will be like a few years ago when a cold change hit Saturday night, the temperature plummeted, and we had ice on the windscreens in the morning. Not much fun when you are staying in a tin hut.

GFS has -30 C at 500hPa over NE NSW/SE QLD this Sunday evening - temps that low that far north are exceptional.

Need to add this morning's BoM notes for the upcoming event:

"A high in the Tasman Sea will combine with a trough, presently over the Bight region, to generate a band of showers and storms in the west that will drift towards the ranges later tonight. The cloud will then drift out into the Tasman Sea during Friday. The trough will find it difficult to penetrate eastwards because of the strength of the high; it will still be west of Tasmania on Friday by which time it will be reinforced by the next system presently developing south of WA. The second system has all the makings of being an exceptional one. The cold air, already evident on the satellite photo, promises to be unseasonably cold, moving into the west of the state overnight Friday and reaching eastern parts by Sunday morning. There is a strong chance that the coldest air will move over the central and northern parts resulting in some snow about parts of the ranges."

Mike B,

I think i will keep an eye on this one, coz if it is as you say, then Melbourne will cop the brunt of this front - in my neck of the woods, temps expected to drop below 15c by Sunday, creating an opportunity for low level snow event.

Big Pete

Pete,

In actual fact, locations further north are probably going to bear the brunt of the coldest air with the upper level cold pool shearing off and heading E/NE'ward across SA, inland NSW towards NE NSW/SE QLD as Michael mentioned. Southern Victoria will see showers in the post-frontal southwesterly winds, but probably nothing too out of the ordinary down there.

Far eastern Victoria may benefit from a potential ECL around Sunday/Monday if it develops far enough south, though. Certainly an interesting few days of weather coming up in southeast Australia.

That is unusual too! the splitting of a front/trough system normally doesnt occur this time of the year - seems the rain gods have given up on VIC of late. We have endured warm days, cold nights, no rain for the last 4 days. Seems as if our end of the drought is still holding up - and if what is said about this weather system is true, then luck is not on our side again. We despairingly need the rain here, or we'll be faced with even tougher water restrictions in the not too distant future (leading to ponder the real reason why Vic is no longer the garden state, but the drought state).

Big Pete

well yet again last night (may 15) had offshore storms they looked almost identical to the night before, very orange lightning from a bit of smoke haze.





Its a bugger I missed half of the bolt with this one, great contrast.

Thunderstorms developed offshore east of my location about 2am today (17th). The first lightning flash I saw was a large clear-air CG then constant in-cloud lightning. Looking at satpics this morning the activity continued and is still going near the QLD/NSW border.  GFS has quite a bit of instability over here and SE QLD this afternoon.  This is ahead of the cold air which may still produce some snow on the Central and Northern Tablelands though the moisture timing is looking less favourable atm.

It seems the major cloud band is coming through about sunset for the onset of the snow. And yes the models are holding on that extreme instability - quite incredible really for this time of the year! Anybody got a boat?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Posted on: 17 May 2008, 09:46:16 AM

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Storms have developed over the Northern Tabelands and headed to the Northern Rivers. It will be interesting when the storms head off the coast.

The cloud mass continues to make its way across NSW and the cold air follows indicated but the blotchy air mass on the satellite imagery.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Cold Air is certainly hitting melbourne atm: 7 degree recorded before it began to go up after 11am. Upper low centred over laverton for a short period. Was at the ASWA meeting, and Jane O'Neil and Clive Herbert had come from Macedon with alot of snow on the ground. Many people are off to snow chase with levels down to 700m. Certainly an interesting (and damn cold) event.

Definitely and the intensity of current line of storms in Brisbane and surrounding areas reflects this.

A very nice storm happpening here ppl.  Looks very pretty on the radar too. A friend of mine in Casino said they got hail down their way.

Hi all,

I bet everyone will be wrapping up nice and warm at the moment!

We had a fairly substantial dust storm push through earlier on the front of a 12.4kph SW-SE wind. Looked nicely threatening for a while set against a dark-ish rain band.

We have only had 1.5mm so nothing impressive as was expected for these parts? Had a nice temperature drop from 21ºc at noon, lowering to 14.5ºc now. BRRRRR

Looks like a bit of an early winter blast for parts! Our sky is bathed in a stunning golden-orange glow at the moment thanks to the setting sun.

Cheers guys, cant wait to see and compare the low temperature readings as they are posted!
Shauno

It has been cold - even in Melbourne. The overnight temp actually exceeded the daytime temp by 6c! It only got to max temp of 10c here, and a very healthy 27mm in the gauge at home. Much needed. It was very windy last night, but the wind eased today - and just under 1/2 hr ago a healthy heavy rainfall came in, so the gauge will be a little higher when i check next.

this is definetely a very cold front! Rug up all those north of me!

Big Pete

Report 17th May 2008.

It has rained pretty much most of the day in Melbourne, and we decided to head on up to Mt Donna Buang in the afternoon and find some snow. Temps were around the 7C - 8C around Melbourne, but began dropping as we headed up the mountain. The rain soon turned to sleet, followed shortly by snow, and it snowed the whole time we were up there. I met up with a couple of other chasers too.

Great afternoon had by all!