Australian Severe Weather Forum

Hi,

It seems the models are now indicating the probability of some useful rainfall across central and eastern NSW. There could be severe weather embedded though it seems this will mostly be in the form of heavy rainfall. It is great to see moisture feeding inland!

On Saturday, a low pressure develops due to an upper cold pool (well cool for this time of the year). Depending on the position of this system - currently northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, this could hints at where rain falls, the amounts and the development of storms.

I just filled in my Bureau of Meteorology rainfall statistics sheet and it had 2 days of rain for the whole of October - totalling 3.4mm.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Well Definitely got some rainfall in the Victorian Region, Rainfall totals of around 20mm in Melbourne, Bendigo, and much of central to NW victoria since 2am this morning. Nice to see last month topped in a single day. Just noticed there is a severe warning for NW victoria and the Mallee, along with what looks like a MCC squall/multicell line forming to the west of melbourne, dropping extremely heavy rainfall. Looking out for photo oppurtunities.

System Really formed up just before hitting Melbourne, rainfall rates 40mm/hr +, got out with the camera and managed to get some shots. Caught what appeared to be a wall cloud with significant rotation behind one of the main cells. Will post as soon as i can get these pictures sorted. Definitely appears to have been some shear for the organisation of the cells, some small hail to pea size also sited. Quickly moving system too, noticing some bow echoes popping up on radar.

John,

good to hear of falls across Victoria. Storms have fired up across NSW though despite the severe warnings, I think the potential is not as great. I wonder if the models over forecast moisture. I think we have an inverted V profile in central regions of NSW. I think there is a better potential of falls tomorrow into Saturday.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

I agree, Cin values around 70 /kg were holding back the convection down here before a couple of cells broke the inversion and started the squall line/convective multicells. I think that inversion would hold back any potential. Given the moisture within the troughs airmass id expect storms to become significant tommorow in NSW.

Hi all,

A couple of photos of the storm which was south of Casino yesterday afternoon (2nd). Photos taken from Ruthven which is about 10ks south of Lismore.

The storm was severe looking for nearly an hour before rapidly dissipating from 5.40pm. Amazing how little it moved in that time - barely 10 to 15ks.

Storm had a massive anvil - like the storm on Wednesday.










Regards, Michael

Nice circulation in response to the cold pool started up around Cobar this afternoon - in the sun as well - at least until storms built

Nice structure there Michael - the season has started finally!

Michael T - welcome to the forum. Yes this is nice cold pool given the time of the year. I wished it was a little more dynamic actually!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Was a great chase on Saturday, and surprisingly my first in the Darling Downs region of SE QLD. 3 hours of rain from Lismore area to Toowoomba broke to an interesting afternoon, though activity was later in the day, and not as strong as the models were tipping. Rodney and I meeting up with the other chasers made it a very fun afternoon


Interesting feature to the north of Dalby - I think this is part of the stronger cell that headed to Kingaroy



Storm just about to hit Dalby, it became quite CG active around this time.



The following pics are from a location about 30km SE of Dalby. Amazing sunbeam lighting up a hill.



Beautiful sunset lit shelf cloud approached from the WSW





Another cell to the SE - Marty got some awesome CGs here



Flanking line at dusk - lightning didn't last long when it got dark unfortunately.



Regards, Michael

Hi Michael,

Nice pictures. Yes for some reason this system was not potent - lack of destabilisation and also very tiled. Cloud was also able to wrap around and create problems wit heating. The weak cap did not help.

More to come I hope.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

More to come - well let's hope! I can't believe that it is already November 6 -- is it premature to suggest that this season is going to be a dud?  Damn, there's nothing all that inspiring in GFS' future.

That's a nice scudnado Michael and the colours in those shots of the outflow are really excellent. Personally, I much prefer this to the overly saturated storm photos that are becoming commonplace.

Yes, some excellent photography there Michael. Let us hope that this is just going to be a late developing season.

Hello there

Yes some good photography of storms. At least some have started. I have not taken a single photo of a cloud so far this season.

An area in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW around Moree / Inverell / Narribri and into southern Queensland was reasonably active from a storm complex last Thursday late afternoon / evening between 4 pm and 6 pm with nearly 25,000 lightning flashes / lightning strikes being recorded. I was looking at the satellite photos for this area and the lightning trackers as this complex was moving eastward in that area.

This is the best I have seen all season. I was at work. The cloud structures sitting at my computer looked impressive during this period.

Further, my friend Jeff Mc Neil at Bellingen (North Coast below Dorrigo) reported to me a strong thunderstorm at Bellingen late last week that produced hail up to 2 cm in diameter in the town. He experienced hail of 1 cm where he was a few kilometres outside town. Apparently it was enough to strip leaves off trees and he advised me of numerous cloud to ground strikes which knocked out power in parts of the town. He also advised me that it was relatively small but high based but was still strong enough to cause some damage to trees throughout the town.

I also understand there was a stronger from the same system on the same day that came close to Grafton.

Harley