Author Topic: Severe East Coast Low and Upper Cold Pool: Flooding and Snow 5th to 11th June 2007  (Read 18613 times)

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Offline Michael Bath

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This rainfall event for SE QLD and NE NSW was forecast on the extended GFS charts for two weeks and even the long-range forecast based on the long wave trough (LWT) positions picked it up three or four weeks ago.

A very large slow moving high has anchoring in the Bight. An upper cold pool has drifted north over Victoria and into NSW and has helped to trigger a rain band over Queensland and induce a surface trough and low off the Queensland coast overnight.

Model output has been confused about where a surface coastal low would form, but all now seem to be tipping the development of a fairly intense east coast low moving down the NSW coastline. Locally moderate to heavy rainfalls can be expected over SE Queensland and along the NSW coast to the Hunter.

Another interesting aspect of this event is how cold the upper cold pool is. Snowfalls and sleet are distinct possibilities along the Northern Tablelands and even into the Granite Belt of SE QLD Friday and Saturday morning.

Michael
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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News just in:

...at 2:10pm, yesterday, I sighted a twister that lasted a few minutes...I
was at the corner of Barton St and The Grand Pde Monterey, my line of sight
was across Botany Bay with twister lined up 1 km outside Botany Bay heads,
moving slowly in northerly direction, cloud in that region was moderate,
white with grey and yellow speckles, the funnel cloud was a darker grey,
there was some precipitation behind the twister (southern side), twister had
good contrast, long, thin in shape with large, forward s shape at one stage
(with bottom half leading and base of cloud trailing), I could not tell if
water was sucked up - too far for eye to resolve, unfortunately, I did not
have a camera as it would have been a classic photo shot showing sky, clouds
in distance, twister and cargo shop lined up between the heads.....

hope this sighting is of use for your archives...

Nick Siafakas.
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Offline David C

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Sydney: Saw some very nice lightning cracking thunder this morning while heading to work around 6:50am to 7:40am - very bright, thick CG bolts along with some heavy falls. MLAPS is suggesting there will be some excellent totals Hunter down to Sydney tomorrow including some of the catchments and extending to the central west.
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Offline Michael Bath

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Some decent snow accumulations are increasingly looking likely for the northern half of the Northern Tablelands and Mt Kaputar near Narrabri during Friday and Friday night / Saturday morning. The snow level is getting down to 1000 metres with 850 temps forecast to be -2 over a large areas. The moisture profile is very encouraging.

Might finally get a decent NT snow chase in !   Will be heading up tomorrow arvo if it still looks good. Satpic this afternoon is certainly encouraging.


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SnowMac

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Some decent snow accumulations are increasingly looking likely for the northern half of the Northern Tablelands and Mt Kaputar near Narrabri during Friday and Friday night / Saturday morning. The snow level is getting down to 1000 metres with 850 temps forecast to be -2 over a large areas. The moisture profile is very encouraging.

Might finally get a decent NT snow chase in !   Will be heading up tomorrow arvo if it still looks good. Satpic this afternoon is certainly encouraging.



Hi Michael !!!  ;D
Certainly looking good at this stage for a decent NT chase. I'll be be u with my bros most likely leaving late arvo so probably arriving in the snow :D :D Satpic is awesome atm :D About time something good happens up on the NT...hope it stays lke this :D

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Yes it certainly looks decent for some snowfalls on the Northern Tablelands this weekend - mainly Friday.

David, the storms were a little surprise package with the odd flash and thunder this morning. We have had consistent rain throughout the day and as I type, more rain falling. This evening and tonight has been intermittent activity though. The main cloud band cleared this afternoon replaced by convective bursts of rainfall. Some instability anticipated for the next couple of days.

Rune would be happy - thought I would get a call from you buddy!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Michael Bath

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Still looking good on the latest charts. Pity there are NO 12z soundings available - hopeless.   I'll be heading up with Rodney leaving here about 4pm.

GFS output from 2007/06/07 12z run + 30 hours



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SnowMac

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Hi Michael n Jimmy

Oh the charts look good. I dont know why the BOM (NSW) has removed the sheep graziers warning for the Northern Tablelands. It has been somewhat degraded...though i like the -2 min forecasted for Armidale  ;D

If it  all looks good my brothers and I will be leaving late this afternoon ( after my brother finishes work), so could be arriving in snow :o ... i'll be calling the Guyra Ampol later once i see the temp drop at the Armidale AP :D to check if there is any sleet or snow ;D

Offline Michael Bath

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3.5 C and raining at Glen Innes Ap on the 7am obs - that is close to snow already and probably is on the nearby hills. I cannot understand why the BoM has no mention of snow in any forecasts.

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SnowMac

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Hi Michael !!

i know 3.5 c...could be sleet / snow showers at Ben Lomond. I am really confused about the NSW BOM....to bad for the sheep atm at Ben Lomond brrr ;D I just read AC's post mentioning plenty of moisture in WZF


currently Glen Innes AP at 10am 3.0c
             Armidale AP at 10am 3.6c
             Guyra i'd expect to be around  :o 2 maybe 1c even
« Last Edit: 09 June 2007, 04:55:23 AM by SnowMac »

Offline Michael Bath

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Hi Sam,   and still only 3.5 at Armidale at 1pm - though dry at this stage.

Latest TWC output indicates good falls of snow between Armidale and into the Granite Belt of S QLD.  Since I've been watching snow events over the years, this is the best forecast I've seen. QLD/NSW border area looks this best this late evening followed by the rest of the Northern Tablelands except the far southern parts Sat am.

The Moree sounding this morning is the coldest I've seen !

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007060800moree.png

Some pretty wild weather going on in the Hunter with flooding through the Valley, and ships run aground by waves measured to 17 metres offshore.

Tocal had 105mm between 10am and noon
« Last Edit: 17 June 2007, 03:52:01 AM by Michael Bath »
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline Michael Bath

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I don't normally criticise the BoM forecasts but this is a joke issued at 1pm today.   How is it going to get to 10 today ?   Where is the snow mention. Radio reports it is snowing at Armidale right now. No sheep gazier alert. Hopeless


NORTHERN TABLELANDS


Warning summary

Forecast for Friday
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Light to moderate west to northwest winds.

Armidale:     A few showers.                        Max:   10
Glen Innes:   A few showers.                        Max:   10
Inverell:     A few showers.                        Max:   12

Forecast for Saturday
Scattered showers. Moderate to fresh westerly winds.

Armidale:   A few showers.                  Min:   -2  Max:   11
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Contact: Michael Bath

SnowMac

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Hi Sam,   and still only 3.5 at Armidale at 1pm - though dry at this stage.

Latest TWC output indicates good falls of snow between Armidale and into the Granite Belt of S QLD.  Since I've been watching snow events over the years, this is the best forecast I've seen. QLD/NSW border area looks this best this late evening followed by the rest of the Northern Tablelands except the far southern parts Sat am.

The Moree sounding this morning is the coldest I've seen !

Some pretty wild weather going on in the Hunter with flooding through the Valley, and ships run aground by waves measured to 17 metres offshore.

EDIT: Tocal had 105mm between 10am and noon

Hi Michael !!
Some wild weather about and yeah armidale ap 12pm 3c...wouldnt be surprised about snow reports around there. It sounds fanatasic what you described, so snow maybe tonight and during the morning at Guyra. I am like you the forecast from the BOM leaves me somewhat confused as what to do. I havent seen the soundings yet. Hopefully if we go we can leave earlier before later this afternoon. I guess if there is a good chance of moisture, i dont think it won't be cold enough for snow. The only think that seems reasonable in the BOM forecast is that -2 for Armidale. It has been a few years i think since snow has fallen across the NT.

Offline David C

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Some very good 24 hour totals from around Sydney showing up :)  105mm at Peakhurst Golf Course near where I am, 166mm in St Albans. 200 + is some of the Hunter sites that I have looked at and 85mm at Coolah.

Just read on SMHerald that a family of four have died as their car collapsed a section of the Old Pacific HWY near Sommersby on the Central Coast (have driven that road many a time). Exciting weather but there can be tragic consequences. Article >>

« Last Edit: 10 June 2007, 03:46:06 AM by David Croan »
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Offline David Brodrick

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Several inches of snow fell on Mt Kaputar yesterday and last night.

Some of my mates went up last night and got these photos:
http://narrabriweather.net/events/Snow09June2007.html