Australian Severe Weather Forum

While this strong system might see snow falling perhaps even on the central tablelands of NSW, I'm more interested in the weather in the 'warm sector'. Way up north, I wonder if there might even be the potential for tornadic storms? Hard to say since, with such a dynamic system, since things will evolve quite rapidly. It's hard to say whether the surface trajectories will be favourable or not. The general area to the north of Bundaberg (well NW) appears to have the best windshear profile at this stage. Worth monitoring. Airfares are around $265.00 return to Brisbane    factor in car hire.

Hi David,

Tornadoes? I know the shear is going to be ideal but besides the moisture source, the shear was similar to yesterday's . 13th November event. Another difference in some ways are the 700-500hPa lapse rates are less than experienced yesterday and the advancing short wave seems to be well back. Will these be negatives?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Hi Jimmy, Sunday's run had N winds at 925 and veering just to the north-west at 850. Under those circumstances I would think that tornadoes would be possible with supercells. Obviously (and expectedly) this situation has changed in subsequent runs.

Hi David,

Yes certainly deep northerly flow would have done the trick.

And of course we have the potential for November snow for the Central Tablelands (and obviously southern ranges as well). Paul Graham mentioned to me that there is the potential of hail on Thursday including hail drifts. I would not exlude something happening with the advance of the upper trough tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Hi,

It is just on 6am DST. A storm already has eruped in the early favourable windshear and moisture profile WSW of Bunderberg. Watch this develop rapidly and move towards and off the coast in a few hours. Storm already moving at 70km/h. Somehow not anchored in the flow? Slightly higher based?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Hello

I heard on the rado this morning that meteorologists have advised that this is the strongest cold front to occur in November in 10 years. I am hearing reports that small hail and local cold air mass thunderstorms will be a feature behind this front in parts of Victora.

I also read with fasconation that snow last fell at Oberon in November 1996 and the last time it snowed at Katoomba was November 16, 1986. If the cold front is as strong as stated, this would indeed be another significant but rare weather event for this spring.

As for those storms Central Queensland. I would love to go there but have to work.


Harley

Hi,

Another couple of radar frames:

Jimmy Deguara


Posted on: November 15, 2006, 05:52:07 AM

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Hi,

I wonder if this radar exaggerates - it seems to be tellign a different story from Gympie radar.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 06:11:22 AM

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Satellite images look impressive.
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 06:35:51 AM

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Another impressive satellite image - check the anvil shields! It looks as though they are forming a complex - activity so early - cap too weak as I suspected.

Yes well, I woke up at about 6:05 (QLD time) this morning to hear a few booms, looked out the window and it was dark to the north. radio said there was a severe thunderstorm warning and I thought really.. at this time. I knew we were in for something the day before, but I don't know what's going to happen? Does anybody know what could happen becuase I would really like to know.

There was even reports of snow....what.. no just small hail, definitely an exciting day to come. Lightning tracker is going ballistic. Oh and the weather maps look interesting also.

Hi Steve,

I think action will mostly be early - it is dependent on the abundance of moisture or lack of it as to how much activity will occur and where. So where did the hail occur - where are you situated again or wasn't it in your area? I am interested to see if these are LP cells - low precipitation cells.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

I live about a kilometre WNW of Maroochydore CBD, and have an unrestricted view to the north but not the south!, hail fell around the Coolum and Noosa areas, I heard on the radio as people reported very heavy rain and then hail began falling, not too much but it was reported, however we missed out only a lot of loud echoing thunder around, at one point I suggested unplugging the phones but it wasn't necessary since the storms moved out to sea.

I'll keep in touch, hmm seems to be a storm in Gympie at the moment better look out for that one.
Posted on: November 15, 2006, 07:50:39 AM

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Oh and I keep hearing thunder yet the radar shows that there isn't any storms above me!, is the radar broken or something becuase I keep hearing thunder. At the moment it is cloudy.

Remember Thunder can go a fair distance: there should be no shortage of storms: the radar is painted like a christmas tree, and there are at least two supercells kicking around, particularly the storm going over coolongatta, which was a split showing clear on stapleton radar. Reports of this morning say Cricket Ball hail fell, and severe wind gusts(micros for sure). I think the flagging for strong storms for this day has come true, and the doppler is getting a workout: storms near overhead. I suspect people are either watching or chasing these storms *jealous vibes*

Anyone monitor the day's happenings up there?? - have been out of the office all day and at the moment (6:10pm DST) can see that a rather intense cell has moved off the Gold Coast. And, yep, baseballs in the early morning,,,,,now we're talking!!!!!

Unfortunately I was offline from About 12PM (QLD time), somehow my internet connection failed or something and I had a hard time getting online and I drove my self crazy to see whats happening, Have been online since about 5:30 PM (QLD time). I saw a warning on the television but it didn't effect us.

Anyway saw on the news of a "Wild Storm" moving through Brisbane which ripped off roves, dumped large hail and caused flooding rain. Just as well it miss us anyway, but then again I hope for a lightning show tonight.

This morning it remained mostly cloudy, it wasn't until about 11:30 when it cleared up. It got very dark to the north one stage and I heard a bit of thunder but that was it. What a weird day.

Any chance of further development?

David,
Although i shouldve been studying for exams *slaps wrists* besides the time i wasnt chasing a coldie funnel and pea hailstorm, ive been watching brisbane radar. Did not get to see the baseball cells early on, but did watch the afternoons developments with great interest: Definite supercells, multiple hook echos, and at least one splitter. The Brisbane cell was enourmous, and seemed to be of the multiple meso type: See below for some stuff ive read:

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According to the Bureau the Brisbane storm was Tornadic, and produced wall clouds/funnel. But having heard this in a news report reporting on the bureau id be worried about its validity and exact statement. Radar and conditions definitely suggest tornadic supercells were evident, with several visible hook echoes on various storms, plus a storm that split into Right and Left movers south of brisbane, the left colliding with the main brisbane storm(pardon my geometry if ive got this wrong again), and the right heading for coolangata.

I couldn't chase due to other commitments but still managed to watch some nice activity that passed through the far north of the Northern Rivers this afternoon. Times are included if you want to match with radar.

First pic at 15:08 is the back end of the hailstorm that hit the Tweed.



Next strong cell developed southwest of the Tweed one. Pics are at 15:55, 16:05, 16:19 and 16:22









This last cell passed across the Northern Gold Coast and is still going a few hours later way to my east. Times are 17:21 and 17:38





An even some lightning using a 200mm lens with the storm about 120km away



Brisbane 64km radar loop for the main storm that hit:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200611150430.gif

MB