Australian Severe Weather Forum

Alright, our last storm chance was a fizzer disappointingly, however more storms are forecast by a similar system on Friday, with a cold front following, although again there is not enough moisture which could once again damper our chances, but there is still a chance this time. I also covered for the 16th just in case.

Hi Steven01,
Here's hoping we do get a slightly improved system over the last one (which seemed to be around 70% of full capability in this region? lol). Our temps here are much better almost pushing the 30's today so that could play a decent part?

Fingers crossed here!
Cheers.
Shauno

Plenty of windshear Friday and Saturday. There are some indications of too much mid level cloud around on Friday over NE NSW. Shaun - the better surface moisture may just be too low in your region ? - certainly looking better in the Narrabri - Moree -Goondiwindi corridor at this stage, and parts of the coast.

Thanks for the info update Michael, I just realised it wasn't looking too crash hot on WZ and the BoM forecasts, but, oh well I'll still be optomistic, the weather is nice and clear out today as a bonus

We'll definately be ready for anything that may come by us, it wont escape unnoticed lol!
Regards,
Shauno

Hello Shaun

Yes the higher temps are more likely to trigger storms, should be 28-29 for Brisbane tomorrow which is good enough for heating, however our main concern is the lack of moisture, if there was more moisture then we'd be set, but definitely this time theres probably a 10% higher chance.

Another concern for me is the high windshear, which is going to certainly push those storms out to sea fast, but thats a good thing in a way, because it doesn't give the storms a chance to weaken over land, thereby giving almost everyone a chance. Although I know the Bureau have gave us high hopes, so I think they are trying to be modest by making the forecasts less encouraging, I'll keep optimistic though.

At 12:00 there is plenty of lightning in a line from around Lithgow through to Coonabarabran.

Some convective showers and wind gusts to 60km/h here at Narrabri but it's not obvious if we'll get any lightning or not.

Last night I would have thought the best action would be in the Moree/Milmerran/Glen Innes triangle as Michael said, so it will be interesting to watch that area over the next few hours.

Dave

What do you guys think the chances are of the gold coast seeing any action tonight?

Well slavegirl our chances are looking somewhat bleaker than yesterday, mostly due to the fact that theres not enough moisture in the lower levels in the atmosphere, however DP's are increasing along the coast so I would imagine that being a factor for helping storm development, although currently looking at the radar, it seems to be some thundery rainband developing, which was all the conditions were right for anyway.

As with your chances, are pretty much the same as NE NSW and around Brisbane, but I don't know really at this stage, everyone should fair from this, I reckon. But please, take my advice, don't count on it, usually these spring storms are quite stubborn so they mostly disappoint.

Hi all,
Looks like I miss out on anything major today, the conditions aren't too good, as opposed to Narrabri and possibly the Moree region as David Brodrick has said, the lightning tracker is pretty busy in those regions and south of there currently! Gusty winds at 46km and extremely dusty with only 13% humidity, temps at 32.3deg here now (1:16pm)

I hope someone is out with the storms getting decent pics!

Cheers guys.
Shauno

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued at 14:06:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for DAMAGING WIND
For people in the HUNTER, METROPOLITAN and parts of the MID NORTH COAST, ILLAWARRA, NORTHERN TABLELANDS, CENTRAL TABLELANDS and NORTH WEST SLOPES Forecast Districts.

Hmm out of nowhere storms seem to be developing right on top of Sydney and surrounds, most likely from the coast DP's which definitely means that the coastal areas are more likely to see action then in the inland.

Wow first good storms of the "season"
wollongong and northern suburbs just got belted by a nice line of storms, could have been a squall line and i think i saw a scud develop but no camera >.<
nice line of active storms roaring of the coast now but

Hi all,

Michael and I are on the mid North Coast for a weekend away. We experienced a severe storm and I also witnessed a little hailstones perhaps up to 5mm just after David got off the phone with me. Some branches on the ground and also powerlines down. This storm occurred just before sunset.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Good storms went by fast though. Took a pic on my phone after the storm left Parramatta/dundas. Im only 17 and no camera so the shots are not that good.

Hello

Around 2 to 2.30 pm, I watched a small isolated LP (Low precipitation) thunderstorm move across the southern parts of Sydney from where I work at Auburn. While the anvil of this cell was spreading outwards, a small area at the rear of the storm sustained some reasonable structure for a while and new convective updraft towers sustained it as it moved south east.

There was not allot of rain falling from the base of this cell. Another storm cell trailing it merged with it before moving over the Sutherland area then out to sea.

The second storm cell was larger and sustained more moderate rainfall. I understand hail was observed in the Sutherland area. I noted for a brief period that the anvil at the rear of the second Storm sustained small mammatus formations for a brief period.

I observed some intra cloud lightning from the second storm cell as it tracked across the southern parts of Sydney.

Rainfall totals were not significant and looking at the BOM website afterwards for rainfall totals, the highest totals that I could see were around 1 mm in a few southern suburbs such as Holsworthy and other falls were less than 1 mm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Alert was issued with an alert for damaging wind. Later looking at the news bulletins and reports on the storms, the highest wind gust recorded was around 74 km / hour in some suburbs affected by the storm cells.


Harley Pearman