Australian Severe Weather Forum

Looks like there should be some storm activity over wide areas the next few days though the models are chopping and changing with regards to a rain event early next week.

GFS is progging significant instability over parts of inland NSW Thursday and Friday but is there enough moisture? Shear is pretty terrible over Northern NSW.

Just hope this system can deliver SOME RAIN AT MY PLACE - bloody ridiculous dry spell drags on.

MB

It is dry isn’t it? I remember last year on my birthday we had a pretty severe set of storms this year is the complete opposite.

storm boy

Tomorrow looks like a good possibilty for NSW, as for QLD at this stage maybe a few showers Sunday - Monday.

NT is starting to fire up to from a few reports I have read.

happy chasing

Col

TV Weather was predicting a bit of rain for Sydney on Sunday. Like others have seen the CAPE/LI predictions a bit earlier this week showing tomorrow and Friday could develop a bit down towards Canberra etc. Not sure how the models are looking now though. At least no storms predicted for Brisbane tomorrow night with the day trip there - don't want another delayed flight!

Hi,

I am not so happy with the performance of GFS as with the past few seasons. Moisture is being more than significantly over estimated for the inland and possibly due to a faulty weather station reading entering the model data. Even moisture along the coast is not that high and perhaps lacks the depth though it may be sufficient for activity.

So perhaps more coastal rain and storms are likely once again with extremely dry conditions inland more likely Thursday to Saturday. Beyond this period, perhaps southern Qld wilol have low probabilities of high based storms.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Well there are a few thunderstorms firing up in the southwest and they look rather stationary. Below is an instability map for Sunday from BSCH looks like there may be some costal action. There is also a GFS.

storm boy

Morning everyone

Currently in Armidale. We had light thunder shower yesterday afternoon before 5pm that created a large cell near Dorrigo after it formed over us. Nothing much after that at all.

Possibly today may be good ones for NT's. Only nice and warm at the moment with some breeze which is better than at this hour yesterday! Some altocumulus in high levels appearing in skies pretty much as sunny skies. However i have not looked in the models and soundings for today.

Cheers

Mathew

I agree with Jimmy - it is becoming very very irritating!! They should really get it sorted out. Yesterday moisture depth was the issue, and today looks the same at least as far north as the Hunter. The MNC/NT should get something but then again wind shear is also weaker up that way so storms probably won't reach the coast. Disappointing system!

Ben.

Armidale's landscape becoming more resistant to thunderstorms already at this hour. Nice cells playing around on Thunderbolts Way and Gwydir Hwy near Glen Innes. Theres a cell could form just southwest of the airport here at UNE. I can see nice pulse fresh updraft coming from down the hill. Trees are a little annoying here because the university is located in semi bush area!

An update to this:


http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65156.shtml

Looking better here already. Lot of CB towers with fewer Cj's. Theres alot of breeding cells just south of Armidale with severe cells northeast of it. Getting interesting here at UNE. Might try to get some photos!

Evening everyone. Here my first storm report from Armidale.

The day started out very mild and a little humid as the day comes it got drier and warmer up to 27/10 (Armidale-UNE obs). There were alot of convection in skies that has started after 11am and brew into weak thunderstorms over Thunderbolts and New England Nat Park.

As the day eventuated, first severe thunderstorm warning issued for that area. During lunch time there were numerous shower cells formed over us with occasional thunder booms. Then around 5pm a larger thunderstorm fired up in southwest near Uralla Plains and marched towards us brought nice lightning show, heavy rainfalls and bit gusty winds (however not severe).











PS: Yes i know Armidale get lame tame storms characteristics!

Most of the Northern Tablelands fired yesterday but with the weak shear it didn't manage to progress far into lower terrain. A couple of cells did look severe on radar - one SW of Jackadgery and another just west of Macksville.

Locally a line of altocumulus castellanus was all that really reached here later afternoon. However a small thunderstorm did manage to form near Casino and spread NNE. I saw a few CGs and updraft lightning.

It was nice with the sunset colours but died by dusk.

Good photos there Michael! I saw that Casino cell was lonely and isolated before dusk.

Ok for today, generally thunderstorms overall likely for all regions including Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Upper Hunter and Northern Tablelands and possibly on the western slopes. Water vapour looking good from central western NSW producing moisture indicator. Armidale currently at 21.5 degrees and have some breeze which is a bit alot better than yesterday at this hour!

However i having a positioning issue for best spots for storms along NT's? I was thinking of Guyra or Ebor but this morning looks like West or South of Armidale according to the Vis and water vapour.

Location Warwick SE Qld. Friday 23/10/2009


Hi All,  we had a small storm fire up here yesterday. Convection started at around 11am and a small front moved over town at 3.30pm. Isolated rain from it but not anywhere near enough. There was tiny hail and the wind gust was nothing short of unbelievable. A couple of claps of thunder and a few CG'S, soon after dark it collapsed and was all over. I thought it might continue to Brisbane but the outflow seemed to stifle it.

The Storm turned on a colour show as the sun illuminated it at sunset.
















Regards,
Chris.

I also witnessed that cell that developed north of casino. Witnessed some flashes but that is all. Today it is clear but specky cumulus developing and becoming visible on the latest VIS will most likely grow into cumulonimbus. Humidity today is high with Ballina right on 83% at the moment with a north-easterly and also 29C. Attached below is the instability map for tomorrow afternoon. Just look at that colour in there. Looks more costal to offshore.

storm boy

Some scattered but small cells in all of northern rivers. There is not much more to happen today but we will see how the afternoon treats us.

storm boy