Sunday 19th October 20008
Target - Nowra
Prospects - Very Poor < -- please note this before being too critical of forecast
Expectations - Lightning after 8pm
Moisture has dried up quicker than a K Tel super mop. Although CAPE and LI figures look impressive for the SW slopes it will be hard to see much occurring. If anything does develop before sunset it has the potential for some nasty dry microbursts.
As the trough moves NE towards the coast so too does a wedge of moisture around 700-500mb, slightly better surface moisture may allow enough interaction to fire off some high based rubbish, initially on the ranges near Braidwood - Marulan and this should move east.
Despite rubbish storms (if any), good lightning photos and storm severity only have a weak correlation if any, so an opportunity may present it self for pictures. High bases and lack of rain will give nice bolt length and visibility, but I am going with best forecast scenario here.
Maverick factor on the coast is the SE wind change, at this stage so shallow I cannot see it being a great influence, but may lead to some cloud which may mar anything that does develop.
As often is the case the real show will be in Mudgee to the upper Hunter 18-24 hours later. ( Monday afternoon )