Australian Severe Weather Forum

Hi all, I see possible thunderstorms forcast along the central coast tomorrow afternoon.  I was wondering what the concencus is for potential for these storms and if they fire, where/when the action is likely to be?  I'm going to be in Avoca, south of Gosford in the morning and will chase if there are storms worth chasing.

Thanks, Brad.

There's reasonable potential in most eastern and northern districts. I don't like how much cloud there is though. Whether this will stifle development along the coastal parts I'm not sure, but activity will tend towards heavy rain events / rather than the more exciting hail

Certainly active near the ACT / Southwest Slopes and over the Northwest Slopes and Plains right now.

There is a strong cell heading towards Goulburn now (1pm).

I'm curious that the soundings for the east coast NSW show only low levels of instability this morning, although there is quite a lot of low to mid level moisture.

Soundings represent atmospheric conditions at the time they were taken and usually refer to 'what may happen' within a given time period.  The soundings are taken at 11:30am and 11:30pm - some areas don't release a balloon to get up-to-date measurements, yet some offices do send up regular sounding balloons to update the charts and of course conditions can either favour or deteriorate within these times marginally.  Perhaps the conditions changed when you've spotted a cell even though the conditions may not be 'right' for storms on the sounding you looked at, you have to remember that the soundings are just one tool used in forcasting any instability.  Their accuracy is dependant on a timeframe when it was taken and the atmosphere does change as the day goes on. 

A good example was last Friday in Darwin (which i've harped on about!).  The sounding only showed small CAPE, LIs, SWEAT and CIN and the like but by 2pm you would never have believed it - massive storm - so the atmospheric conditions deteriorated significantly!

I'm currently in the process of getting some info/facts from the Severe Weather Section at the Met office here to help explain what the conditions were and why/when this happened.  Storms like low level moist conditions, dry in the mid levels and then moist again in the upper levels - although that's not set in concrete i must add!

Hope this helps Scottme!

Mike

Taken 10 mins ago (3:35pm) facing north from Blacktown.

Mmm nice convection in there Wol.  Plenty of heat generating the billowing.  Hope it turns out to be a good storm for whoever is observing it.

Mike

Thanks for the info Mike. I always find the top end summer atmospheric conditions interesting. Hehe, storms are delivered to your doorstep nearly everyday. BTW, is Darwin a little different from normal this year (i.e. a bit more erratic)?

I was in the CBD of Sydney today at 5pm and I saw a tornadic cell, I was very surprised at the amount of rotation. I saw the rotating condensing inflow at the tail that I'm pretty sure if the storm was stronger would have lead to a small tornado / landspout. There was no or minimal precipitation at this stage. Did anyone else see this?

Hi all,Michael Bath and I went out for a chase this afternoon when we both finished work at 4pm.Headed out west of Lismore on the Kyogle road, to observe a large cell a nice moisture laden Anvil.A guster soon came into veiw with other scud like cloud as well was quite nice!
      I have a few pictures of the storm for about 20mins also some Flash flooding runoff off paddocks accross the road as well.
           

Hi guys,

I chased after work in the upper Blue Mountains and caught a nice strong cell north of Katoomba. I also photographed the back of that severe cell near Campbelltown.

Sailors delight tonight. I could post a pic but everyones seen a sunset before.

Some storm action to the west and north west but nothing substantial and it's dead now.

See what the weekend brings. Hopefully my time is yet to come.

Hey there Scott, you can see all my postings in the monsoonal 2007 topic here on the forum - i've hammered it of late.  We're back in the 'lull' period between monsoons, but there has been cells moving around tonight, went out chasing but the storms died out as fast as i could set the camera up - Saturday and Sunday look more promising with the sounding indices up a lot more and a low pressure area moving in over us again. 

Kick the tyres and light the skies!!!!

Mike

Greetings gang,

   Another good say of storms.   There were 3 cells I got  "up close and personal"  with yesterday, all in the
Campbelltown area.
   The first towers were starting to go up (along the edge of the Blue Mts. ~ 12 noon.  One to the sthrn end
 took my attention and With work taking me out to Mt Annan, I ended up almost under it.  The cell developed
and had a reasonable base at times and produced some nice CC's and CG's  but not too many.

 Work took me back up to Revesby and away from the action for a while.  Was the last job for the day, and
looking south I could see a huge cell moving in, so again headed back to Campbelltown area.  Took pix from both the M5 sthbnd and then from Narallen Rd estbnd.  Dang!! that was a mean looking storm.  It just missed
Campbelltown (only just!) as it moned NE'wards. The radar showing that it was still increasing in intensity even after it crossed the coast and went out to sea.

The 3rd cell came in from the west towards Campbelltown ~ 5pm.  I sat on Narallen Road and took more pix.
It wasnt overly active lightning wise. A more active cell went up the edge of the mountains towards the Penrith
region.  I kept an eye on it as I went nth up the M7 before going east on the M4 to home.

will post some pix when I get a chance

All in all a great day.

Cheers
Dave N

I have no idea where you guys are chasing!  I will have to consult the street directory for NSW to keep track of all these suburbs! How far out from Sydney are you all?  I gather the Blue Mountains are nowhere near Sydney!  Forgive my stupidity, but I'm not familiar with Sydney, although I visited Newcastle last xmas where I almost drowned in a strong rip .

Mike

try maps.google.com Mike!

Ah yes, dry wit - i like it.  I will consult the maps or perhaps Google Earth that way i can see your dogs running around in your backyards!

Mike