Australian Severe Weather Forum

Storms have fired up over parts of NE NSW and southern inalnd QLD to the Downs. Development was a bit slower than expected today.

Weekend starting to look good for some severe weather.

MB

I'm wondering what's taking BOM so long to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, the cell near Urbanville is clearly capable of producing some Severe Storm abilities.

It was probably only briefly severe in the heavy rainfall category. Conditions are not very favourable for severe storms east of the Divide today ... radar alone only tells part of the picture.

The setup is much better inland southern QLD with some decent shear and some dry air in the mid levels which will suit stronger updrafts and hail.

Ah ok. *Still learning*

I notice the cloud development over mid QLD now. And some over northwest SA (I wish they had more radars out that way). Pity the lightning tracker thing isn't working.

Hi all,

Just want to pose a question. BoM are forecasting just showers for us in Lismore tomorrow, however GFS seems to think otherwise. It has progged CAPE of around  and LI's of -4 to-5. Overall shear looks a bit slack. My question is have the BoM put forth this forecast because of the possibility that cloud cover will inhibit any instability present or is there another underlining reason I have failed to notice. I'm still learning how to make forecasts, so bear with me. Hopefully someone can shed some light on this for me.

Cheers Jason
PS: Pulled the data from the BSCH GFS forecaster.

At this point I'm wondering the same thing Jason.  Satpics this evening suggest cloud will be an issue tomorrow, yet GFS is forecasting some nice instability. The profile is better inland again so maybe the BoM are expecting a day similar to today, where some storms will form on the Northern Tablelands ranges, and only edge towards the Northern Rivers district.  Will see what GFS 12z has in the morning.

Surprisingly strong storm just passed through here (McLeans Ridges near Lismore) a short while ago. Very nicely structured shelf cloud including green tinge. Very heavy rain and flash flooding in the valley below here. Lots of very close CGs.

The webcam scored another CG - amazing !

Nice 'bowl' depicted in that cloud Michael, no matter how many times I photograph these frontal areas there's always something to view as it approaches and passes.  Added that the webcam scored a CG is an added bonus - you'd be disappointed if it was just out of camera view!

Mike

Hi all,

We experienced some quite moderate to heavy rainfall from the same storm on MB's webcam. Didn't put on much of a lightning show till after it was past us and heading north. The rain persisted for around 20mins but we have had subsequent rain from other cells throughout the arvo. Still plenty of thunder and lightning happening but nothing overly spectacular. The following pics are of the result of the heavy rainfall in my area(sorry no lightning pics today). I haven't seen the gutters and next doors yard so full of water since the last major flood event in Lismore

We had some pretty good rain and lightning around Fairfield in Sydney this morning, around 10:30am. Then it calmed down to later a few rumbles and and showers. Though the cell coming over Jenolan earlier (about 5pm) looked to be developing nicely.

But the main reason for the post - some of us semi newbies probably don't understand all the GFS terms and so on. Where do we find the info, and how do we interpret it? Any of the gurus want to write a sticky how to for this stuff?

MB edit - will take this up in the general forum section Richary

Cheers

Hi guys,
Gees, I don't know about this Lismore weather? If you see a plague of locust coming it may mean the end of everything as we know it lol, tornado's, flooding and large hail, where will it all end?

Nothing much to report out this way other than isolated and very weak showers. I did notice a fairly large and highly active cell lighting up the sky out to our north on Thursday night around 8:30pm It was quite distant (with yellowish CG) so no pics unfortunately.

Great shots Michael, I haven't seen a good shelf on a HP cell in ages!
Take care.
Shauno

Bathurst had some fantastic rain falls yesterday and the previous day. Although the storm which hit the northern parts of Bathurst last night at Limekilns area was amazing. I was working last night and reports coming in from Country Energy staff said it all. Flash Flooding of roads, creeks which hadnt been flooded for years. Customer at a house reporting his roof blown off his house, ending up down in his paddock. Power lines down on many properties, sheds blown down. Some described it as, wait for it " Mini tornado " I cringe as i hear the word, or read the words on the job logged by our advisers. Many customers had to be left off over night as damage to bad to repair at night with rain and lightning still crashing about. I arrive home 3am, leaving many jobs ahead for crews to attend and repair the damage to not only Bathurst, also Blayney, Oberon, Mudgee areas.

Listening to scanner today, many work crews repairing quite substantial damage, more than first thought, all from high winds.


Dave

Hello

A substantial thunderstorm complex moved across South East Australia between 6 pm and 2 am Saturday evening and early Sunday morning including Sydney.

The system produced some substantial rainfall totals not just for Sydney but some inland centres as well. I did not film any of it and I lightning I saw was mostly intra cloud or simply strobing flashes.

Between 6 pm and 9 pm, I tracked a complex of storms across southern New South Wales and places like Albury and Temora received some healthy rain falls at long last.

The system continued to develop as an arc across SE Australia between 10 pm and 2 am and I was lucky to be watching the various radars at 12 am to 1 am and was staggered by the size of the complex of storms. I managed to view the 12.30 am satellite photo of the thunderstorm complex as well. There were at least 4 large clusters of storms stretching from about the Hunter Valley all the way south to near Melbourne in Victoria.

Within each complex or cluster, numerous storm cells were visible of various intensity. The whole complex was moving SE.

Sydney was receiving some 89 to 99 lightning flashes per hour for around 2 hours (I was also viewing the lightning trackers) although most of it from what I saw was strobing flashes.

Rainfall figures were indeed healthy. Some examples I fished out during and after the event were.

Albury 52 mm
Temora Up to 60 mm
Warragamba Dam some 63 mm.
Richmond 42 mm although Richmond had 81 mm Friday and Saturday night.
There was 66 mm where I live.

Sydney's western suburbs stood out and falls have exceeded 50 to 60 mm in many areas.

The system has produced useful and some very good rain and follow up rain in many inland and coastal areas.


Harley Pearman

Hi all,

I cant give a fantastic description, I'm still trying to learn all the different cloud types and the general goings on of storms and such,

This afternoon I noticed that there was what I think was some convection finally happeneing south east of lismore. I observed a large cloud mass with 2 very tall towers which were quite fluffy, I think this is updraft / convection? I think though that it may have occurred to late in the day as the bite from the sun was starting to fade.

From what I saw if this cell was starting to do this at about 2 in the afternoon it deffinately had potential to be a cracker.

I haven't learnt to read SKEW-T diagrams yet, still reading, but I could not see any shear ( I dont think that the cloud had gotten that high yet).

It's nearly dark so I cant see anything anymore. there may be some lightning but its well out out sea if there is any.

As I say it looked to have plenty of potential but just left it's run too late.

Cheers all, in disapointment

Mat

Hi all,

I returned back to Sydney yesterday afternoon given the change had totally destroyed the chance of surface based storms. Of course, elevated storms approached and affected the eastern part of NSW throughout the late evening and night period. Some pretty decent falls of rain as well as a few specks of hailstones thrown in during one intense storm cell. It had some torrential blinding intense rainfall rates very uncommon for here!

So up to 9am

3rd Nov 2007 - 31.0mm
4th Nov 2007 - 44.8mm

This will help the local paddocks green up after all the heat!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara