Australian Severe Weather Forum

I have decided to start this topic now because the heat right now in the northern rivers, south east QLD and northern table lands has reached above predicted. So far ballina recording 35.4 was predicted 34 and Lismore will reach 35+ for sure. Due to this heat we should be seeing some action develop over the next few hours hopefully humidity rises.

regards stormboy

In Brisbane, we did not reach our expected 36C, we peaked at about 33.8C.
There is no storm activity present, but tomorrow they have forecasted possible afternoon storms with a high of 32C.
Wednesday also is predicted to be 34C with afternoon storms.

So we will be keeping a close eye on this.

cheers
Col

I agree with you there coltan I’ve just looked at the latest reports and southeast QLD looks to be in for some storms Mon-Wed. today ballina reached 35.8 and was predicted 34 evans head reached 37.7 and was meant to be 33 so a good way to start a toasty autumn.

Regards storm boy

When I used to live in Sydney years ago a hot day was a fair guarantee of a storm to cool it down at least every second day. This seems to have changed as we can be hot but nothing happens. Conditions are too dry to have anything form.

The same seems to have happened on the north coast (used to live at Coraki) and despite the hot weather nothing developed today. Obviously we need to look at more factors like humidity at height and so on. Rather than just saying it's stinking hot so we will get a storm later.

Even though they have predicted storms today in SE QLD,( it is already hot and very muggy,) Wednesday looks like the go for Northern NSW and SE QLD.
The charts are showing that the cold front that will hit Vic. on Tuesday (severe weather warning is still in place for VIC on Tues,) will sweep its way across the south east on Wed.

 Brisbane is forecasted to have a top of 33C. So with the right conditions and the cold and hot combining together, we could be in for some severe storms.

The BOM land charts posted below.

Colin.

Looking at GFS, today looks the pick of the next 3 days. Cooler upper temps and better wind shear the main advantage. Little bit too much moisture for my liking up high however can't complain as any storm right now would be nice. Wednesday lacks good wind shear and cooler upper temps - doesnt look good for organised severe storms.

Look forward to seeing Brisbane's sounding later this morning.

There is a severe weather warning in place for parts of NSW tomorrow for strong winds with the cold front coming through. BOM is forecasting some wild winds and thunderstorms later in the day for our area so it might get a bit interesting. Also forecasted is areas of raised dust...lovely!

Some really strong surface layer winds are forecast for tomorrow (tues) over VIC and S NSW - perhaps getting up to 60 knots. Going to be a dangerous day!

Yesterday (Sunday) I measured 36.5 - which is the highest temp of the season here. DPs were not all that high until later along the coast - ie Ballina on 24 late arvo. The sounding showed it was very dry above the surface so ended up being no chance of storms.

Nasty overcast today, so wont see anything much. Was amazed to see the BoM actually update its forecast at 10am to include storms in the north of the Northern Rivers - which it should have been in the 430am issue.

Us here in ballina have just had a recent split second area of rain with light thunder. My friend in Byron said he can here thunder out at sea now. Radar below

here is the latest on weather warning NSW and synoptic chart TUESDAY

Priority
NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for Tuesday
for Damaging Winds
For people in
Lower Western, Riverina and Alpine areas of the South West Slopes, Southern Tablelands and ACT above 1200 metres.

Issued at 11:10 am on Monday 2 March 2009

Synoptic Situation: 9:00 am EDT Monday
An intense cold front will cross western NSW during Tuesday. The front will reach the southwest corner of NSW around midday and move east across the Lower Western, Riverina and western parts of the Upper Western district during the afternoon and evening. Strong and hot northerly winds are forecast ahead of the change with strong and markedly cooler southwesterly winds to follow. The very windy conditions will produce extensive areas of raised dust and will result in very high to extreme fire danger conditions.
This is an update of the warning issued at 5:05 am Monday

Peak wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected over the Lower Western and Riverina districts during Tuesday, especially near the front. The Lower Western and Riverina districts include towns like Broken Hill, Wentworth, Ivanhoe, Balranald, Deniliquin, Hay, Griffith and Narrandera.

Over Alpine areas of the Southwest Slopes, Southern Tablelands and ACT, winds will strengthen to average 60 to 70 km/h by late Tuesday with gusts to about 110 km/h about the peaks.
Emergency services advise you to keep clear of fallen power lines, stay indoors away from windows and keep children indoors.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES [NSW and ACT] on telephone number 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:00 pm Monday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

excuse me anyone james used a GFS what exactly is this?
and sorry MB what do you mean by The sounding showed it was very dry above the surface so ended up being no chance of storms. please explain sounding is it area?


stormboy

VIC fires
there is a big difference between 32c and 48c. That is the difference between the fast dangerous fires they could get tomorrow and the horrific conditions on feb7. I agree that 100kph winds make fires run fast but the dew points are up and temps way down on that day.
The worst fire danger is further north on west NSW but nothing to burn there. I am not going to say something bad wont happen but  we have seen days like this before but the feb7 conditions were almost unprecidented. i am going to go to Deniliquin and if any fires do occur to the south i am within striking distance and if not i am a prime spot for some dust storms anyway.

I just hope that the remainder of the fires in Vitoria do not spread or get worse tomorrow/Wednesday.

I have just watched our local news, and I am very worried with tomorrows conditions. To hear Premier John Brumby say that tomorrow is likely to be as bad as Black Friday and Ash Wednseday cannot be good. He also says it will be an extreme hot wind event followed by an extreme storm event with possible widespread power outages due to wind gusts 100+. Now I'm starting to wish we moved to a nice little farm up there on the northern NSW coast!

An amazing event happened this afternoon 6pm a cloud rotating almost caused a waterspout then continued to rotate above our house here is a video it might not be available until you tube allows it thank you

Stormboy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b64U7vJlLLg